Turkey’s reorientation towards priority cooperation with China and Russia may complicate Central Asian countries’ interaction with the European Union, according to Eldaniz Gusseinov, a specialist in European and International Studies at the Heartland Expert Analytical Center. Commenting on the prospects of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS), Gusseinov suggested that the OTS needs to look for new niches for cooperation.
On the 3rd of November this year, Astana will host the 10th-anniversary summit of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) under the slogan “Turk Time” (Tradition, Unification, Reforms, Knowledge, Trust, Investments, Mediation, Energy).
Apart from the outlined topics in the abbreviation of the slogan, the key issues of the organisation’s current cooperation are the impact of world crises on the organisation’s activities, interaction with Northern Cyprus and cooperation with the European Union (EU). Also of interest is the possible joining of Turkmenistan to the organisation.
Historical Summit in Samarkand
The aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis has had a notable impact on cooperation within the organisation, and the new stage of the conflict between Palestine and Israel will also affect the organisation, especially its cooperation with the European Union. Thus, in 2022, one of the main topics of cooperation within the organisation was the facilitation of the movement of goods within the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (“TITR”, also known as the “Middle Corridor”).
The organisation’s IX Summit in Samarkand, held under the slogan ” New Era for Turkic Civilisation: Towards Common Development and Prosperity”, was significant. Within the framework of the summit, the participants discussed different aspects of cooperation, but the priority areas were transport and customs. During the summit, the parties signed the Agreement on the Establishment of a Simplified Customs Corridor, the Agreement on International Combined Transport and the Transport Connectivity Programme of the OTS countries.
The primary objective of the first document is to reduce the time of customs control and ensure the development of information exchange about goods and vehicles, and trade operators within this trade corridor will have several advantages, such as priority customs clearance at border crossing points. The second agreement is also aimed at facilitating transport within the territory of the organisation’s members. Its draft is available on Kazakhstan’s Open Legalacts website, and given that there is already an order from the government to commence the entire text of the agreement with a reservation under Article 4, paragraph 4, the draft text can be regarded as being in force. The document is an agreement defining the procedure for international combined carriages between the contracting parties.
It focuses on the provision of interconnection and transit services for various modes of transport, including rail, sea and road. The agreement pays particular attention to the exchange of information to expedite customs procedures, the provision of facilities at state borders, the issuance of special permits for certain types of transport across the Caspian Sea, and the introduction of digital technologies into transport procedures.
In addition, the agreement encourages infrastructure development, the removal of restrictions on weekend and holiday traffic, and cooperation between the contracting parties to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of combined freight transport. A Joint Committee, comprising representatives of the contracting parties and the combined transport sector, is established to oversee the implementation of the agreement. The tasks of the committee are to make decisions by consensus and to ensure the exchange of information between the competent authorities.
Analysing the content of these agreements, it can be concluded that they can simplify the transport of goods through the territory of OTS members and thus contribute to the development of TITR.
The timing of the approval of this document is important because according to its content, within the framework of the development of information exchange technologies envisaged by the document, the customs authorities of the OTS member states will start a pilot project lasting 6 months after the enactment of the agreement. Thus, it is known that the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic decided to approve the agreement on the creation of a simplified customs corridor on 5 October 2023, a similar resolution was signed by the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan on 2 May 2023 and 19 June 2023 respectively. There is news that Turkey also ratified the agreement in early May. The parties are most likely awaiting a decree from Kazakhstan.
On the Open Legalacts website, the discussion began as early as April 2023, and on the website of the Majilis of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan, a draft ratification of the document was published on 18 October 2023. Given this, the implementation of the pilot project will most likely start in November.
In general, the above suggests that there are certain obstacles to finding compromises in the organisation due to technical specifications. It should be taken into account that some members of the organisation may sign overlapping or similar agreements within the EAEU, CIS and other associations, as well as separately with the European Union. The existence of similar agreements may hinder the full implementation of agreements signed in the OTS. On the other hand, these agreements do not include other countries that are also important for TITR, such as Turkmenistan and especially Georgia. The implementation of TITR, and consequently the full implementation of the above agreements, only on the territory of the OTS member countries is possible if there is a corridor through the territory of Armenia under the jurisdiction of one of the members of the organisation.
This corridor is also known in the OTS documents as the “Zangezur corridor”, this corridor passes through the territory of the Syunik province of Armenia, considered a possible means of providing transport links between the western parts of Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and consequently onwards to Turkey. Disputes over this corridor are still ongoing. Even though there have been statements that after the launch of the transport route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan via Iran, this corridor is not of much interest anymore. However, there are recent statements from both Turkey and Azerbaijan regarding the opening of this corridor for the signing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But while the corridor is not operational and it is unclear whether it will be at all, the implementation of the agreements may be incomplete, as the logistical connection of the OTS member states will pass through the territory of Georgia, a non-member of the organisation.
Orientations for the development of the organisation
By examining the organisation’s activities, two main focuses of its development are identified: facilitating the transport of goods and expanding trade opportunities. The first part has been described in some detail in the previous part of the paper. In this direction, the parties are now focused on the digitalisation of data exchange to facilitate the passage of goods carriers and reduce other trade barriers. Towards digitalisation, the members of the OTS aim to use additional measures to simplify transport and transit procedures in the OTS member states by applying modern digital tools: “e-TIR”, “e-Permit” and “e-CMR”.
This is done to reduce the volume of work with documents, and simplify and speed up customs control. The parties are now actively cooperating on mutual recognition of digital signatures, electronic document flow and integration of e-government. However, it should be recognised that such agreements were already discussed earlier, in 2017. A certain influence on the development of the organisation is made by the external milieu, which facilitates the OTS member countries, taking into account the membership of the organisation’s participants in other associations, to make decisions to simplify freight transportation.
The Samarkand 2022 Declaration states that it will assign the relevant ministries to work on concluding the Trade in Services and Investment Agreement following the national legislations of the member states; and that it will assign the Secretariat to finalise the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement among the OTS member states and prepare these agreements for signature before the next OTS Summit. We can reasonably expect all or some of these agreements to be signed at the upcoming OTS Summit in Astana. Thus, the 12th meeting of the ministers of economy and trade of the Organisation of Turkic States was held on 14 September 2023, during which the drafts of these agreements were discussed. Taking into account the membership of the OTS countries in other various trade and economic organisations, the parties are still developing a roadmap for the conclusion of a Trade in Services and Investment Agreement between the OTS member states. Such projects as “Turkic Trade Houses” and the establishment of the Turan Special Economic Zone – “TURANSEZ” are potentially under discussion.
Separately, it should be added that the cooperation in the energy sector is currently promising. In 2022, a programme on energy cooperation for 2023-2027 and a corresponding action plan were adopted, including the exchange of information and ideas on legislation in the energy sector. The 3rd meeting of the energy ministers of the OTS has already taken place, while the 12th meeting of the ministers of economy and trade has already taken place, which means that priority within the organisation is given to the development of transport routes and facilitation of goods and trade. The OTS has existed since 2009, but the activation in signing various agreements in the field of trade, and transport can be observed since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis in 2022. This shows the influence of the external environment on the development of the organisation.
Impact of global crises on cooperation in the organisation: incentives and obstacles
As confirmed by the leaders themselves, the Samarkand summit gave greater impetus to cooperation in the OTS. This is because the Ukrainian crisis has led to a reorientation of land transport chains, which has led to the growing role of TITR through the territory of OTS members. According to Obid Khakimov, director of the Centre for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), Uzbekistan’s export-import and transit traffic is carried out through 9 international transport corridors, 8 of which pass through at least one OTS member country. However, due to infrastructure deficiencies, customs and technical limitations, the transit potential of the region is not fully utilised.
But also in the process of signing these agreements, there could be problems during their preparation. When developing agreements, OTS members need to consider whether the document violates other international treaties that have already been signed, which could be an obstacle to the further development of the organisation.
Another major crisis has appeared on the agenda, namely the escalating conflict between Palestine and Israel. While the Central Asian countries are taking a rather moderate stance, Turkey, as a regional power, is making several serious statements. This is important to realise against the background that statements on international developments are often adopted in the OTS. On 19 October 2023, the organisation stated the situation in the Gaza Strip that the organisation strongly condemned the strike on the Al-Ahli Arab hospital. The adoption of joint statements reinforces the political dimension of the organisation. There is a possibility of adopting a joint statement on expanding Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Erdogan’s statements are perceived differently on the world stage. On 25 October 2023, Erdogan made a statement in which he said that Hamas is fighting for the liberation of the Palestinian people. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Salvini called his statement “disgusting” and not conducive to de-escalation. A possible discussion of a joint statement could create a conflict of positions among OTS members. More likely, the Central Asian countries will insist on restraint in statements, while Turkey may insist on moving away from it. In this case, if the Ukrainian crisis is one example of the activation of the organisation as a reaction to events in the external milieu, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may to some extent strain relations within the organisation.
Cooperation with the European Union: Logistics and Northern Cyprus
The potential for EU cooperation with the OTS has now started to be actively discussed at various expert platforms. The objectives of both organisations in Central Asia coincide, namely the reduction of various barriers to increase the connectivity of countries along the TITR. However, there is no open communication between the two organisations on joint TITR development activities. In fact, achievements within the OTS that contribute to increasing connectivity between the EU and Central Asia are ignored in official EU communication with the countries of the region.
For example, in the Joint Communiqué of the 19th European Union-Central Asia Ministerial Meeting, 23 October 2023, there is a reference to a consultative meeting of Central Asian leaders, but no mention of the OTS. The situation is similar in the joint statement of the German Chancellor and Central Asian leaders after the Germany-Central Asia Summit and in other statements and documents. At the same time, there have been official contacts between the two organisations since 2015. Now there are also contacts between representatives of different agencies. The potential for cooperation between the OTS and the EU is relatively great. The link between the EU and Central Asia is difficult to imagine without the role of the OTS. In general, cooperation is possible in the following formats:
- Providing grants from the European Union for the Turkic Investment Fund to tackle infrastructure problems in the territory of the OTS members;
- Coordination of actions to reduce tariff and customs restrictions on goods entering from both sides;
- Jointly promoting increased trade between the EU and the OTS.
A problem for the development of relations is likely to be some kind of presence of Northern Cyprus in the OTS processes. Turkey claims that at the Samarkand summit, all OTS members voted unanimously for Northern Cyprus’ membership as an observer in the organisation. On the day of the summit, 12 November 2022, a statement was issued by the European External Action Service stating that the European Union rejected Turkey’s applications to admit Northern Cyprus as an observer to the organisation. Whether Northern Cyprus was actually accepted as an observer in the organisation is rather difficult to understand. On the one hand, the then-minister of foreign affairs of Uzbekistan said: “No specific decision on Northern Cyprus was signed at the end of the summit”.
That is, the membership of Northern Cyprus as an observer has not been denied by either side. The situation with Northern Cyprus could introduce serious contradictions in the relations between the EU and the OTS, as the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the EU and can veto any decisions regarding EU cooperation with any OTS country, such as, for example, ratification of the EU’s Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
It should be added that the EU includes states that are very sensitive to the emergence of new countries. For example, among EU members, Greece, Romania, Spain and Slovakia have not recognised Kosovo due to the political processes within these countries. According to Dietmar Krissler, Head of the Central Asia Unit of the European External Action Service, for the decision to grant observer status to come into effect, it must be ratified by the national parliaments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Northern Cyprus’ membership in the OTS does raise many questions.
At the extraordinary OTS summit on 16 March 2023 in Ankara, the leader of the unrecognised Northern Cyprus was present along with other OTS leaders. However, when considering other meetings within the organisation, one can notice a tendency of the presence of the representative of Northern Cyprus only at the events in Azerbaijan and Turkey, the representative of Northern Cyprus does not participate in the Central Asian countries. Thus, it can be expected that the leader of unrecognised Northern Cyprus will not attend the OTS summit in Astana on 3 November 2023, but it remains to be seen the motives of the Central Asian countries in deciding to grant such a status to Northern Cyprus.
As international relations specialist Adinay Kurmanbekova notes, the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (now the OTS) is considered one of the main foreign policy tools of Turkey. This demonstrates the areas of interaction between the member states of the organisation, where conflicts may arise due to the desire of individual members of the organisation to promote their international agenda through the Organisation of Turkic States.
Does Turkmenistan hope to become a full member of the OTS?
The media are now actively discussing whether Turkmenistan will become a full member of the Organisation of Turkic States. The reason for it was the statement of the Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow that he hopes “to meet all of you in Turkmenistan not in the status of an observer country, but as a full member of the OTS”. Given the fact that this year’s summit will not be held in Turkmenistan, it can be assumed that the country will not become a full member of the organisation. But discussions about the country’s full membership are fuelled by Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedow’s official visit to Turkey on 25-26 October 2023, during which Erdogan stated: ” … I emphasise that we want Turkmenistan, which has observer status in the OTS, to become a full member of our family”. News about the country’s full membership had been there before that. For example, before the OTS summit in Samarkand in 2022, former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said that Turkmenistan would become a full member of the organisation during the Samarkand summit, which did not happen. In all likelihood, Turkmenistan will not gain this status this time either. There are several reasons for this:
Does Turkmenistan need it? Turkmenistan is now focused on supplying natural gas to European markets via Azerbaijan and Turkey. As it was shown above, the organisation is not developing cooperation in this direction so rapidly now.
Although Turkmenistan has become more active in its foreign policy, following the example of interaction with the CIS and SCO, it has not become a full member of these organisations. The country places a strong emphasis on security issues due to the escalation of conflicts in Eurasia. The OTS is not actively engaged in security issues at the moment.
The Law on the Permanent Neutrality of Turkmenistan, adopted in 1995, restricts the country’s participation in military blocs and alliances, as well as “interstate associations with strict obligations or involving collective responsibility of the participants”. Given the desire of some of the larger powers to advance their international agenda in the OTS, Turkmenistan, due to its status of neutrality, is not interested in doing so. Turkmenistan could join “peer-to-peer” agreements, such as the establishment of a commission to jointly monitor the implementation of the agreement on strengthening land transport interconnectivity in Central Asia, as the country is interested in increasing transit through its territory and its seaports.
Further perspectives of the organisation: risks and opportunities
The OTS will continue to strengthen the link between Central Asian countries and Europe, but the potential of the organisation will depend on the end of hostilities in Ukraine. In the current situation, it is very difficult to bypass Turkey in the development of TITR to strengthen cooperation between Central Asian countries and the EU. As the fighting in Ukraine shifts to the Black Sea, the route from Georgia by sea to Romania or Bulgaria becomes less secure. But Turkey actively seeks to use its strategic importance to achieve its foreign policy interests, Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO is an example of this. Then the question should be “Can Turkey use the growth of transit of goods from Central Asia to Europe through its territory for its purposes?”.
Yes, it can. An example is the EU’s more restrained stance on Northern Cyprus’ membership as an observer in the OTS. Demanding that its interests be taken into account in Turkey’s relations with the EU is not necessarily a conflict, but it may give the impression that Turkey is then more inclined to cooperate with China and Russia, which could also hamper the Central Asian countries’ engagement with the EU. In addition, there is a possibility that after the end of the war in Ukraine, China, the EU and Central Asian countries may use the route through Russia again, in which case the OTS will need to look for new niches to develop cooperation within the organisation.
Such a niche is energy cooperation and energy supplies from Central Asia via Azerbaijan and Turkey. But this will also depend on the EU’s continued interest in energy supplies, given the renewable energy agenda. But the OTS should not be seen only through a Europe-China prism, Central Asian countries are keen to develop other transport routes, for example through Afghanistan.
In this case, the previously described agreements may facilitate Turkey’s communication with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Economic cooperation is likely to develop irrevocably, especially against the background of economic crises in several OTS countries. In this case, projects to open trade houses and special economic zones are very interesting.
An important area is political interaction, namely the joint response of the OTS countries to world crises through joint statements. This can help to strengthen the understanding that countries should take joint actions to prevent external crises from worsening the situation within the member countries of the organisation. This understanding can help to find new niches of cooperation.