Vladimir Putin has arrived in Kyrgyzstan on an official visit. This is the first foreign visit after the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an order for the arrest of the Russian president. This visit to Bishkek is as relevant as ever in this context and based on the increasing interest of global powers to Central Asia.
The day before, October 12, President of Russia had held negotiations with the leader of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov and they signed a range of agreements. Putin also presented the Order of Honour to Japarov for the ‘significant contribution to strengthening of strategic partnership and alliance between Russia and Kyrgyzstan’.
Today he is taking part in the summit of heads of states of the CIS. Presidents of Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are taking part in it, too. Earlier it was reported that the leader of Armenia would not participate in the summit.
Putin began to appreciate relations with Central Asia
This time the media focus not on the outcomes of the bilateral meeting of presidents, but on Putin’s visit abroad. This is the first foreign visit of the Russian leader after the order for his arrest was issued. On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court of The Hague issued an order for the arrest of Vladimir Putin. He is accused of illegal deportation of children in the context of the war in Ukraine. Theoretically, the head of the Kremlin can be arrested in 123 countries of the world, but not in Kyrgyzstan as the country has not still ratified the Rome Statute.
The Rome Statute is the international treaty that established the International Criminal Court in The Hague. It determines functions and structure of the court, as well as categories of crimes it may consider. The countries that approved it are considered full members of the treaty and recognise its validity in their territory. Currently, 137 countries have signed the document. However, it was ratified by 124 only, including Armenia, which did it on October 3, 2023.
This is the second visit of Vladimir Putin to Bishkek after the large-scale intrusion of Russia into Ukraine. Previously, the head of Russia came to Kyrgyzstan in December 2022 to the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.
According to political expert Musurkul Kabylbekov, Kyrgyzstan does not expect anything extraordinary from the visit of the Russian president, Putin was likely to benefit from his image.
“First, it is the recognition of the fact that he is not restricted to travel abroad and he can visit some countries that are still under the Russian influence. In other words, he shows that he still controls the situation in the post-Soviet Asian space and can freely visit and interact with his CIS colleagues,” Kabylbekov said.
According to Temur Umarov, fellow of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre in Berlin, war and reduction in the choice of external partners have made Kremlin to value relations with Central Asian countries more.
However, foreign political priorities of Moscow have been far from Central Asia for many years – the region was considered too dependent on Russia without a chance to leave.
“Let’s take the fact that Putin in 2022 visited all five countries of Central Asia, for the first time in many years, and contacted his colleagues in the region by phone and video conference calls more often. The total number of online and personal meetings of the Russian president with Central Asian leaders exceeded 50 last year,” Umarov said.
According to political expert Seitek Kachkynbai, Vladimir Putin has become the ‘outcast’ in the world. He cannot make foreign visits now, so he has recently welcomed Kim Jong Un in his country. Now he is in Kyrgyzstan, and his remaining options are Cuba, Venezuela or African countries.
“How should the world community evaluate Putin’s visit to Kyrgyzstan? They would say, ‘Poor man, this is the only place you can visit.’ Russia is now in the situation of Iran, or even worse. It is being removed not only from the political arena, but from sport, culture, literature,” he said.
Neutrality dictated by economic vulnerability
Bishkek pursues the neutrality policy in the matter of the war in Ukraine.
“We are a small country, with no influence, we cannot stop the war,” this is how President Japarov explained the country’s position in March 2022.
Majority of Kyrgyzstanis understand and accept the cautiousness of authorities: the national economy depends much on Russia. Over a million of migrant workers of Kyrgyzstan are staying in Russia, and their money transfers make one third of the national GDP – 2-3 billion dollars per year. Russia is the second after China investor in the economy of Kyrgyzstan, an important supplier of energy and food.
Given the national interests and current realias, Kyrgyzstan has to maintain neutrality, according to political expert Seitek Kachkynbai. This approach is typical for other Central Asian states.
“The European Union, the United States, China and Japan accept our position with understanding. That’s why there have been many meetings between Central Asia and China, Central Asia and Germany, Central Asia and Japan, Central Asia and the United States lately. All try to keep in touch with us. They understand that they cannot lose the region amid pressure on Russia, so they pursue a cautious policy and offer alternative ways meant to reduce dependence on Russia,” the expert said.
According to him, the neutrality of Kyrgyzstan and other regional countries can be interpreted as the refusal to support Russia’s actions.
“The neutrality is delicately hiding the ‘I am against Russia, I support Ukraine’ attitude. And everyone knows it. Where is the war? In Ukraine, not in Russia or Germany. If Kyrgyzstan was on Russia’s side, it would announce it openly,” Seitek Kachkynbai said.
C5+1. Is Russia yielding its position in the region?
Amid the war, the importance of Central Asia has increased significantly. The first China-Central Asia summit took place in May 2023. After a while, the Central Asia-European Union summit took place in Kyrgyzstan, and leaders of the region met in the C5+1 format in September in the United States. New directions for mutual cooperation were defined at every meeting.
According to political analyst Bakyt Baketaev, the presidents of Central Asian countries pursue flexible policies on the threshold of new opportunities.
“Our presidents visited the United States, China together because unfortunately we are the countries that cannot pursue our own sovereign policies. Leaders of Central Asia pursue flexible policies between the West and the East not to put their countries at risk. Why don’t the United States raise the question directly? Because our life is much linked to Russia. It’s a question of 3 billion dollars that one million migrants transfer every year, the same standards we follow, the same history of our past,” the expert said.
After the sanctions were imposed, Russia tries to minimise the damage by means of parallel import. Here, according to expert Seitek Kachkynbai, Kyrgyzstan wins by its mediation, on the one hand.
“This year, according to DW, export of automotive parts and accessories from Germany to Kyrgyzstan has increased many times. It means that trade relations between Germany and Russia are maintained via us. If we import tools for war, we can face sanctions. The West understands that we are an isolated country with small economy, dependent on Russia, so they won’t take strict sanctions measures. Sanctions could be targeted against particular companies, which we have witnessed recently,” Seitek Kachkynbai said.
In this scenario, when opportunities and risks increase equally, Kyrgyzstan must pursue the multi-vector foreign policy even in a more pragmatic way.
“Kyrgyzstan did not undertake to work against itself before the global community. In this regard, our policy must be selfish, pragmatic and we should pursue our goals. We cannot break or deteriorate our relations with anyone in favour of some major geopolitical players. We do not break the status quo and we are loyal to our international obligations and treaties,” Musurkul Kabylbekov said.