This year, Kyrgyzstan has registered the unprecedented increase in the number of mudflows. The analysis of causes shows that other than heavy rains such devastating consequences of mudflows have been caused by the insufficient performance of local authorities.
In the last five years, there were 171 mudflows in Kyrgyzstan, which killed 32 people and caused material damage of more than 2 billion som (almost 23 million dollars). The most devastating year is 2024, which tops the record level of mudflows (114). It has caused the most grievous consequences as well – 22 dead and the material damage that exceeded 1.2 million som (nearly 13.8 million dollars).
Osh residents: We haven’t not seen such destructive mudflows in the last 30-40 years
Azamat lives in aiyl aimak Toloikon, in the outskirts of Osh. This district is known for its recreation areas along River Ak-Buura. This July, heavy rains caused mudflows that drowned the houses and caused deaths of four visitors. According to Azamat, there have never been such devastating mudflows in this place. Previously, 30-40 years ago, there were mudflows here, but they were less destructive.
“In our village, the water flooded four houses, two of which became unfit for habitation. The kindergarten was damaged and restored in 3-4 months. The recreation areas near River Ak-Buura were flooded as well. In spring, we clean the ditches, but the flood from the hills swept the roads and bridges away. After the flood, we have additionally reinforced the rivers and the channels,” a resident of Toloikon said.
Aiyl aimak Toloikon has recently been added to the city of Osh. The heavy rain on July 17 caused damage not only in the district, but also in the centre of the southern capital, including the central market. According to the estimates of the emergency ministry, the total damage amounted to almost 439 million som (about 5 million dollars), and reached houses, recreation areas, cars, bridges and retail outlets.
Climate cycle and change
The cycle of mudflows in Kyrgyzstan identified based on the analysis of data provided by the emergency ministry for many years shows the existence of two key cycles. The first one is a long-term 30-year-long cycle that reflects the periods of significant increase in the activity of mudflow processes. The second one is a minor cycle that is 5-7 years long and characterised by a more frequent, yet less widespread occurrence. According to Daurbek Sakyev, director of the Department of Emergency Monitoring and Forecasting, both cycles coincided in 2024, which caused far-reaching consequences.
Besides, the increase in such climate risks as landslides, mudflows and higher levels of high-altitude lakes have been caused by the surge in extreme weather events due to climate change.
The forecasts of the emergency ministry are deplorable: there will be the increase in precipitation in the next 15-20 years, which will lead to the activation of hazardous weather events.
Gaps in local authorities’ work exacerbated mudflow damage
The insufficient work of local authorities has become the key reason of such devastating consequences of mudflows. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the main factors have become the lack of such preventive actions as cleaning and expansion of diversion channels, gullies and ditches, as well as the insufficient water-transmitting capability of diversion channels and bridges.
“The problem is exacerbated by squatting of lands and random construction on the beds of mudflow gullies, which disturbs the natural water flow. Besides, allocation of land plots for construction in potentially hazardous areas, as well as obstruction of stream beds with plants, which prevents mechanical cleaning, exacerbate the situation,” according to the ministry of emergency situations.
These factors along with heavy rains have caused devastating consequences, which could be minimised with due preparedness and control.
Zhakypbek Subagozhoev, akim of Nookat district of Osh region, partially agrees with the conclusions of the emergency ministry. His district has suffered from mudflows at the end of June as well. According to him, construction in the district complies with the master plan and no random development is allowed. However, sometimes it happens that local residents plant trees near irrigation ditches wilfully or arrange recreation areas illegally such as Turkish couches and commercial facilities near rivers, channels.
“We are working to fix the problem. I agree that irrigation ditches, gullies and irrigation channels are not cleaned up on time. But the situation is more complex – some of the facilities belong to the ministry of agriculture, while others belong to the ministry of emergency. I have instructed every aiyl okmotu to plot a map of hazard areas until the end of the year and analyse mudflows in the last 4-5 years. On this basis, I demand them to allocate the funds for prevention actions and to remedy the consequences. However, we have some limitations as it all depends on funding. This year, we have suggested reinforcing 35 facilities and we’ll see which ones will be approved by the emergency ministry,” the akim said.
Local authorities of all suffered regions, including Nookat district, were notified by the Department of Emergency Monitoring and Forecasting in advance of taking preventive actions. This year, the department has sent such instructions to over 300 local government bodies and various agencies. Director Daurbek Sakyev noted that further work with local authorities would be improved.
Deputy of Zhogorku Kenesh Balbak Tulobaev in the interview to CABAR.asia said that even most developed infrastructures could be powerless in front of the nature in terms of preventing the consequences of mudflows. However, the effective infrastructure can help minimise the damage and save people’s lives.
“I have visited Issyk-Kul region and seen many houses that are built along the channels in violation of the separation distance requirements. Moreover, there are facilities built right in the middle of channels. The example is not far to seek – such examples exist in Bishkek along the BChK (Great Chui Canal). If mudflows occur, they would sweep everything away. Material losses could be recovered somehow, but people’s lives cannot be. Therefore, the emergency ministry jointly with authorities must take this issue seriously. And we surely need more specialised equipment and dams need to be built,” Tulobaev said.
Funds allocated to preventive actions are not enough
According to the National Water Strategy, mudflows and flood flows top the list of hazardous natural disasters in Kyrgyzstan in terms of the damage they cause due to their incidence and frequency. The country has about 3,900 mudflow basins, 200 high-altitude lakes have a high risk of lake outburst flood. 300 populated areas are located in the area of possible devastating flooding.
According to Daurbek Sakyev, in the last decade (2013-2023 – Editor’s note) the material damage of mudflows and flood flows exceeded 15 billion som (over 176 million dollars). However, the budget allocates 100 million som (about 1.2 million dollars) for preventive action every year. The money is spent not only on prevention of mudflows, but also all types of emergencies.
“This money is not enough for prevention actions. And we have spoken about it for a long time. For example, 100 million som is enough only to build 5-6 dams. This year, the cabinet of ministers and us are considering the increased funding,” Sakyev said.
Forecasting plays an important role as well. Emergency ministry with the donors’ support has launched the uniform information system of monitoring of lakes that have a risk of lake outburst flood. Moreover, local systems of early warning of mudflows and flood flows will be installed in three pilot most vulnerable areas in the south of the country.