Climate change poses a serious threat to the food security of Kyrgyzstan, which is in the area of risk farming. According to forecasts, the absence of adaptation measures could lead to annual losses in agriculture exceeding 200 million dollars by the end of the century.
Agriculture in Kyrgyzstan is not only a part of economy, it is a lifestyle of the significant part of the population. The country is considered agrarian, but the agricultural sector failed to reach the stable positive dynamics. Thus, its share in the national GDP in 2023 was about 10 per cent, and a decade ago it was 14.7 per cent. The reason is complex and consists of several factors. The fragmentation of farming lands, soil degradation, deterioration of irrigation systems, difficulties with access to machinery, fertilizers and finances, a weak supply chain – the list is not final. Amid all existing challenges in agriculture, there are climate changes, whose consequences are already felt by farmers.
Climate change: forecasts not to be ignored
According to the Agrarian Development Concept of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2021-2025, Kyrgyzstan is the third country most susceptible to climate change among Eastern European and Central Asian states. The forecast data show that the average temperature here will rise by 2.7°C by 2050 and 3.1°C by 2070 in all climatic zones: from 2.6°C in Issyk-Kul region to 2.9°C in Batken region.
According to Asian Development Bank (ADB), trends in precipitation patterns are less clear-cut: an increase is expected in the north of the country, while a decrease is expected in the south. Due to rising temperatures and glacier melting, river flows are expected to decrease by half by the end of the century. These changes will affect hydropower, water supply for the population and irrigation, as well as agricultural yields.
“Rising temperatures and evaporation will lead to an increase in irrigation water demand, affect agro-climatic zones, and result in a reduction of irrigated land. The negative impact of climate change in Kyrgyzstan will have consequences for water management in the Central Asian region,” the ADB document states.
Economic losses in agriculture could reach 200 million dollars
Kanatbek Kaparov, known in social media as Abdulla Tashievich, is a gardener and the head of the Union of Gardeners of Central Asia. In recent years, he has actively promoted the idea of planting more fruit trees, which can better adapt in new climatic conditions. According to him, the need for irrigation water has already become critically urgent.
“Crop yields of grains, melons, and vegetables are plummeting. In the southern regions, many have abandoned agriculture due to water shortages. Severe heat is contributing to an increase in pests and the development of various plant diseases. Another important point is that the grass on nearby pastures has almost disappeared, raising dust that settles on plants and trees. This disrupts photosynthesis, and trees are also dying,” he said.
His words are supported by governmental documents. According to the “The strategy of Kyrgyzstan on adaptation to climate change until 2020”, soil fertility in arable lands will decline due to climate change, and the area of deserts and semi-deserts will increase from 15 per cent in 2000 to 23.3-49.7 per cent by 2100. High-altitude pastures may be reduced by half, and spring-autumn pastures by 70 per cent.
According to the Cabinet of Ministers’ calculations, a decrease in yields of wheat, sugar beet, and fruit crops is expected in Chui region, of wheat and barley in Talas region and some crops in Zhalal-Abad and Issyk-Kul regions.
Agriculture is also increasingly exposed to climate-related extreme events, such as droughts, due to climate change. There is a risk of the emergence of new pests and infections of plants and animals in the country that are not native to the region.
“With a water shortage in the semi-desert regions of the country, farmers’ expected incomes may decrease by about 15 per cent. In the absence of timely adaptation measures, economic losses in agriculture in 2100 could reach 200 million dollars, and there will be problems ensuring food security for most products included in the basic list,” according to the Agrarian Development Concept of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2021-2025.
How to adapt agriculture to climate change?
Rysgul Akimzhanova is a director of agricultural holding ‘Bai Elim’, specialising in various aspects of food industry. The company is not limited to production, but also actively implements organic farming methods. According to her, they were one of the first in the country to introduce drip irrigation system.
“This year, we built the largest reservoir and implemented drip irrigation on the largest area in Kyrgyzstan. We started adapting to new climatic conditions even when no one else was thinking about it. Then we began to study which crops would be profitable to grow given the changing climate. As a result, we grew gherkins and jalapeños and are already exporting them,” the entrepreneur said.
Drip irrigation is an effective measure for adapting agriculture to climate change. This method is particularly relevant for Kyrgyzstan, where water losses during irrigation account for almost 30 per cent of the total water withdrawal.
According to Ministry of Agriculture, 1004 economic entities installed drip irrigation, covering more than 13 thousand hectares of land, by 2023.
Matraim Zhusupov, an expert in agriculture and water resource management, noted other effective preventive adaptation measures. First of all, according to him, it is necessary to develop the country’s meteorological service, actively introduce satellite methods of agro-meteorological forecasting and mapping.
“We also need to introduce advanced climate-resilient technologies. These include flood control, cultivation of drought-resistant crop varieties, and restoration of degraded lands,” the expert said.
Growing drought-resistant crops helps farmers to obtain a stable harvest even with insufficient moisture, maintaining food security and sustainability. Kanatbek Kaparov, head of the Union of Gardeners of Central Asia, helps farmers adapt to climate change in this direction. According to his idea, almonds and pistachios should be planted in the southern regions, as these trees do not require much water. Flour and oil can be produced from them. It is recommended to plant fodder beans under the trees – they maintain coolness in the root system of the trees, and also provide food for both birds and livestock.
Lack of knowledge and resources
According to Kaparov, there are farmers who are already follow their recommendations. These are usually those who have the resources to develop new technologies and knowledge. However, many still cultivate using old methods, such as growing wheat, barley, corn, or clover, which does not allow them to receive adequate profits. And the main problem here, according to the gardener, is the lack of knowledge, information, and personnel.
“Most of our people live in villages and are engaged in crop farming and cattle breeding. At the local level, we suffer greatly from a shortage of qualified specialists in agriculture. However, thousands of lawyers and economists graduate in the country every year, but not agronomists. It is necessary to review the system of training of necessary specialists, and this can in school,” he said.
The fact that most farmers need knowledge of how to manage their farms in the face of new challenges is confirmed by research. 85 per cent of respondents to the study “Climate Change and Food Security in Batken Region” noted that they would very much like to receive information on the correct solution of issues related to agriculture and horticulture amid climate change.
Entrepreneur Rysgul Akimzhanova believes that working with people’s consciousness is a priority. According to her, almost all the land is in the hands of the population, therefore, even if the state develops effective programmes, there will be no result without changing the thinking and attitude of people towards agriculture and natural resources in the new climate conditions.
What does the state do about it?
Climate change is a global issue that affects all aspects of life and requires a comprehensive approach. Kyrgyzstan, as a party to international agreements on climate change, is trying to fulfil its obligations and follow a sustainable development path.
According to Aizada Barieva, head of climate policy department of Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology and Technical Surveillance, NDC was adopted and currently the National Adaptation Programme (NAP) is under development. It is focused on most vulnerable sectors, including agriculture and irrigation.
According to the NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement), 276 million dollars are needed for agricultural adaptation measures in Kyrgyzstan.
NDC is a plan of action to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. The document outlines such solutions as reducing livestock numbers and replacing them with more productive animals, developing horticulture and agroforestry, and increasing the area of organic farming. It also mentions the formation of a scientifically sound policy for the climate-resilient development of agriculture and raising climate awareness and adaptation knowledge of employees of government agencies, local self-government, and land users.
Kyrgyzstan prepared its NDC in 2021, but it is unclear how far the country has progressed, as government agencies have not yet been able to provide data.
As CABAR.asia was told in the Ministry of Water Resources, Agriculture and Processing Industry, many documents have been developed on adapting agriculture to climate change. And although they are being implemented, albeit at a slow pace, there is a lack of funds.”