An expert from Afghanistan noted that the Taliban do not enjoy wide support among the Afghan population, and the legitimization of terrorists by big players only complicates the process of achieving peace and development in Afghanistan.
The analytical platform CABAR.asia, together with experts from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, discussed the latest alarming events in the north of Afghanistan, the possible consequences for the countries of Central Asia and, in general, the process of resolving the intra-Afghan conflict.
The offensive of the Taliban terrorist group (banned in the Central Asian countries) in northern Afghanistan is taking place against the backdrop of the withdrawal of the US troops from its territory, which is to end on September 11 this year. According to media reports, since the beginning of May, Taliban have seized from 50 to 70 out of 370 districts in Afghanistan. These are mainly rural areas in the north, near the borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Government defense and security forces in this region of Afghanistan often surrender without a fight, leaving military weapons and heavy equipment in the hands of the Taliban. Part of the Afghan military fled to Tajikistan.
The analytical platform CABAR.asia recalls that as a result of a number of terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, for which the Taliban terrorist movement (an organization banned in Central Asia) was claimed, hundreds of civilians, including children, were killed. Thousands of wounded were left disabled.
The analytical platform CABAR.asia emphasizes that by the decision of the UN Security Council in 2003, the Taliban was recognized as a terrorist organization.
What stands behind the Taliban advance into northern Afghanistan?
Experts and analysts who participated in the CABAR.asia discussion believe that behind the activation of the Taliban in the north is the desire to strengthen their positions until the final withdrawal of the American military contingent and to prevent the participation of non-Pashtun leaders in the process of power sharing under the new conditions.
Tajik journalist Fakhriddin Holbek, who has worked in Kabul for several years, says that the Taliban freely occupy uluses and villages, but are actively opposed by the popular militia in large cities.
In his opinion, morale in the Afghan army has fallen because the Afghan government does not provide any support to its own defense forces to ensure security in the north, which is why they surrender even to the small numbers of the Taliban militants.
Also, according to the journalist, the Taliban movement (an organization banned in the Central Asian countries) has seriously changed over last 20 years: now they are more like a regular army or police, which were deliberately transferred to the north.
An analyst from Uzbekistan, Doctor of Political Science, an expert on international and regional problems of Central Asia, Farhod Tolipov, emphasized that the events in the north of Afghanistan cause different interpretations, and experts have more questions than answers.
“According to the agreements between the United States and the Taliban, the main requirement of the Taliban was the complete withdrawal of the coalition forces, which the United States is doing. It would seem that the Taliban should be satisfied. But here is a surprise offensive by the Taliban in the north of the country. The question arises: for what? If the main enemy leaves, then who becomes their enemy now? – the expert argues. – It looks like for the Taliban the demand for the withdrawal of US troops was just a cover for other far-reaching tasks. And they had no plans at all either to lay down their arms, or to stop hostilities.”
The expert added that the United States and NATO have trained Afghan soldiers over the years and have invested huge amounts of money in equipping the national army. Therefore, he does not understand the reasons for the defeat of the Afghan army.
“Tens of billions of dollars have been spent on this mission; training of the armed forces of Afghanistan, the number of which is many times greater than the total number of all Central Asian countries combined. This is 300 thousand people. And suddenly we see the opposite situation, when the Afghan armed forces surrender their positions and flee from the Taliban. All this suggests thoughts of some kind of conspiracies that are still incomprehensible to us. Because a well-trained military simply cannot surrender to a small group of militants. This is nonsense! ”Tolipov comments.
Orientalist Kosim Bekmuhammad, a journalist and analyst from Tajikistan, believes that behind the Taliban offensive in northern Afghanistan until the withdrawal of American troops is completed, there is the desire of the terrorist Taliban (an organization banned in Central Asia) to strengthen their positions and appear before the world community as a winner, as a force to be reckoned with.
According to him, in the agreement signed by the United States with the Taliban terrorists (the organization is banned in the Central Asian countries), the Taliban are practically recognized by the government.
Kosim Bekmuhammad also drew attention to the fact that in this agreement the American side demanded from the Taliban not to issue visas and passports to persons who threaten the security of the United States.
“Is the Taliban the government that has the authority to issue visas?” – asks Bekmuhammad.
The analytical platform CABAR.asia emphasizes that the Taliban is a terrorist organization banned in Central Asian countries and in the most states of the world, and the UN Security Council adopted a resolution in 2003 that included this organization on the terrorist list.
In addition, Bekmuhammad said that the Taliban constantly refer to certain conditions stipulated in two more documents, the content of which is known only to the Taliban and the United States.
“Therefore, right now, while the foreign troops have not left, the Taliban leaders want to receive the greatest support for the idea of the future legitimization of this movement, if not at the political level, then at the level of perception by countries and public opinion,” the orientalist emphasizes.
Taliban terrorist actions could push extremist dormant cells to revitalize
The participants believe that the Taliban offensive in the north does not pose a direct military threat to the neighboring countries of Central Asia.
As it was said by Kosim Bekmuhammad, the ideological influence from the success of the Taliban on illegal groups of supporters of terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, both of which are banned in Central Asia and most of the world’s states, poses a great threat.
“For them, the achievements of the Taliban in Afghanistan are what inspires them, because today the Taliban claim to seize all power in Afghanistan,” he said.
Analyst Marat Mamadshoev, editor of the analytical platform CABAR.asia in Tajikistan, agrees with him and believes that the so-called “success” of the Taliban pose the greatest ideological danger to the “sleeping” cells of radical movements in Central Asia.
Mamadshoev proposed to the governments of the Central Asian countries to develop a common strategy of conduct against the Taliban terrorist movement (the organization is banned in the CA countries).
In all other cases, the Taliban will strive to create a good image for themselves in the eyes of neighboring states, and will not hinder either business development or the passage of transport corridors through Afghanistan, the participants in the discussion agreed.
The fate of Afghanistan is in the hands of big players
The settlement of the conflict in Afghanistan depends little on the Afghans themselves and on the countries of Central Asia, experts say.
According to Farhod Tolipov, Afghanistan is perceived in the world as one of the sources of terrorist threats. Despite this, the governments of the neighboring countries of Central Asia have never remained indifferent to the problems of this country. This is evidenced by the numerous initiatives that came from the presidents of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan at the highest levels. However, all these initiatives have not been crowned with great success.
Tolipov cited as an example the position of Uzbekistan, expressed by the country’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, that the settlement process in Afghanistan depends little on the Afghans themselves and also little depends on the regional states.
At the suggestion of a Tajik journalist, the Afghan problem should be resolved at three levels.
“At the intra-Afghan level, there should be national reconciliation, the creation of a coalition government and other options. The Afghans themselves need to find a “magic” formula for reconciliation, ”Tolipov said.
Also, a consensus needs to be reached at the regional level with Afghanistan’s neighbors: China, Iran, Pakistan, India, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, which do not adhere to identical positions regarding the assessment of the political situation in Afghanistan.
And finally, the third is the global level.
“Because in Afghanistan we are dealing not just with some kind of tribal war, but with the phenomenon of international terrorism. This is a global problem. Afghanistan is one of the hotbeds of the “theater of military operations” of world terrorism: such as in the Middle East, Africa, etc. Therefore, the problem must be resolved at the global level. In particular, as it has been so far, with the involvement of the United States, NATO, the UN, ”the journalist added.
Fakhriddin Holbek noted that “the geopolitical interests of many world players clashed in Afghanistan. Here Russia, China and the United States confront each other at the global level. At the level of the Islamic world – Iran and Saudi Arabia, at the level of South Asia – India and Pakistan. These states will decide the fate of Afghanistan. We, the countries of the Central Asian region, we are only well-wishers. We can only try to call on the Afghans for a peaceful solution of problems, give them electricity, gas, oil, so that they stop fighting. ”
The problems will only double with the Taliban terrorists’ ascension to power
According to an expert from Afghanistan, Ahmad Fahim Kukhdomani, who joined the discussion from Kabul, it was a big mistake that some countries officially recognized the Taliban terrorist movement (an organization banned in Central Asia) and negotiated with them.
“All talks about peace and negotiations with them began after the United States of America began to conduct a dialogue with the Taliban. The United States opened the way for them to the world community after inviting their leaders to negotiate. The Taliban got the right to open their office in Qatar, and their representatives got the right to travel. Some states began to conduct official negotiations with them, organized diplomatic receptions for them, ”said Kuhdomani.
The Afghan expert also noted that the Taliban (an organization banned in the Central Asian countries) does not have popular support in Afghanistan. According to him, now this terrorist movement is supported by no more than five percent of the country’s population.
“Unfortunately, many states think that the Taliban are a purely Afghan movement, and they are fighting only to gain power in Afghanistan. But this is far from the case. It is a terrorist organization with ambitious goals that go beyond Afghanistan. If the Taliban come to power in Afghanistan, let the rest of the countries not think that everything will be calm for them, ”said an analyst from Kabul.
In his opinion, Afghanistan is at the forefront of the fight against world terrorism. And it would be good if all the states of the world would support the government of Afghanistan in order to prevent the victory of the terrorists.
“Now inside Afghanistan there is both motivation and experience to fight terrorism. I do not think that such experience exists in our neighboring states. Therefore, it is necessary to direct all efforts at the global and regional levels to destroy the terrorist stronghold inside Afghanistan itself, “Kuhdomani concluded.
Main photo: dw.com