Glacier melting is a natural process, experts say, but in recent decades it has been occurring faster than it did in the pre-industrial era.
Tajikistan has more than 8,000 glaciers, 19 of them large. They are involved in feeding the main rivers of the republic and during the hottest days of summer they give fresh water, which is very necessary not only for Tajikistan, but also for other countries of the Central Asian region. In recent decades, under the influence of climate change, some large glaciers have shrunk and retreated by kilometers. Scientists argue that the melting of glaciers is virtually irreversible, and the industrial age has only accelerated the process.
Tajikistan is the leader in the number of glaciers in Central Asia. Although glaciers cover only 6-8% of the country’s territory (8,476.2 square kilometers), they hold several hundred cubic kilometers of fresh water. The main share of glaciation is concentrated in the territory adjacent to the highest peaks of the republic – the peaks of Somoni and Abu Ali ibn Sino.
Large glaciers in Tajikistan feed the Amu Darya and Zeravshan river systems, whose water flows down to the downstream countries – Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Therefore, it is customary to say that most of the region’s water is generated in Tajikistan.
The largest glaciers
Tajikistan has the largest glaciers in the Central Asian region. According to the “Center for the Study of Glaciers of Tajikistan”, glaciers originating on the slopes of the Somoni peak reach a height of 7,400 meters above sea level, while in the basins of the Surkhob and Kafirnigan rivers rarely exceed 4,500-5,000 meters above sea level.
The largest glaciers of Tajikistan are confined to the glaciation knot at the junction of the highest ridges: Akademiya Nauk, Darvaz, Peter the Great, Vanch and Yazgulem. The largest glacier in Central Asia – Fedchenko – originates here. In total, there are 18 types of glaciers in the republic, the main share of which is concentrated in the east of the country.
Large glaciers in Tajikistan
Alexander Pirov, an engineer at the Center of Glaciology of the Agency for Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan, has been studying glaciers for more than 30 years, and states that Tajikistan’s glaciers are in degradation, that is, they are retreating. But there is no need to sound the alarm about this.
“Glaciers are melting and this is a normal natural process. They melted before we did, and will melt after us, sometimes on the contrary. This has been going on for centuries. To do something to prevent this process is almost impossible – the climate will change under the influence of various factors and it cannot be avoided. You just have to watch the glaciers. There was global cooling in history, when half of Europe was under the ice sheet, and then these glaciers began to recede,” he argues.
As an example, he cites the largest glacier in Central Asia – Fedchenko, located in the Pamirs, which used to be three times bigger and its length reached Lakhsh (Tajikistan’s border area with Kyrgyzstan). Then it began to melt and now its length reaches 70 km, and in a decade it will shrink by another 2 km.
According to Pirov, the main hydrological role of glaciers is to form the flow of the country’s major rivers. Although the share of glacial feeding in the annual runoff of large rivers is on average small and amounts to 10 – 20% (not including runoff from melting of seasonal snow on glaciers), the role of glaciers in this process is extremely important.
“Glaciers give us water, and this is the main wealth. And they do it in those months of the year when the country needs it most, i.e. in summer and autumn. When the snow and firn mountains have already melted, the glaciers start supplying water to the valleys. 80% of the water provided by Tajikistan’s glaciers goes to neighboring countries through the Zerafshan, Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers,” he said.
Main glacier
Fedchenko Glacier is located in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan. It is the longest glacier in the world outside the polar regions, and it is one of the ten largest glaciers in the world.
It has about 50 tributaries, some of which are the largest glaciers in Central Asia, exceeding 30 square kilometers in area. (Bivachny, Nalivkin, Vitkovsky, Academy of Sciences glaciers). The area of Fedchenko Glacier with all its tributaries is 651.7 sq km, and its greatest length is 77 km. In total, there are 45 glaciers in the Fedchenko Glacier system.
The upper reaches of the tributaries of the glacier reach a height of 7480 meters above sea level, and the end of its tongue descends to a height of 2910 meters. The thickness of ice in the upper zone of the glacier exceeds 800 meters, and the total volume of ice, including tributaries of the glacier, is about 130 cubic km.
Tajik glaciologists have been studying this huge object for decades, and as it turns out, Fedchenko is moving. For almost forty years of observations, the average annual rate of movement of this glacier varied from 63 to 89 cm per day, averaging 73 cm per day. That is, while you are reading this article, the largest glacier in the region will move by a couple of millimeters.
But according to scientists, the most disappointing news is that the glacier is shrinking every year, and it is happening faster than it needs to. According to the latest data, in 30 years Fedchenko has lost more than 3 km of its area and settled down by 50 meters.
Tajik glaciologists have calculated the rate of glacial retreat, and it turns out that another major glacier, the Zerafshan Glacier, has also retreated significantly.
From 1960 to 2019, its retreat was 4.8 km. According to calculations, the rate of its retreat was 80 meters per year. Specialists have concluded that the main share of glaciers in Tajikistan is in the stage of degradation, i.e. retreat. Decrease of length of glaciers, accordingly leads to reduction of their areas and volumes.
Climate change and melting of glaciers
Tajik climatologists assessed the impact of global climate change on the glaciers of Tajikistan. According to the results of observations, since 1930, the total area of glaciers of the republic has decreased by about 30%.
According to the Agency for Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan, the average annual temperature in the republic, both in the valleys at an altitude of 1000 meters from sea level and in the mountains at an altitude of 2500 meters and more, has increased over the past 70-80 years and this leads to the retreat of most of the glaciers.
This trend is also observed in the highlands, where most of the country's glaciers and snowfields are located. While in 1950 the average annual temperature in these places was at -2.1 degrees Celsius, in 2020 it has risen to -0.9 degrees.
Abdurashid Tagoybekov, chief specialist of the Center for the Study of Climate Change and the Ozone Layer of the Tajik Hydrometeorology Agency, notes that warming in Tajikistan is due to global climate change processes.
According to him, it is already calculated that the average annual temperature increase by the end of the 21st century in Central Asia may be from 3.7 to 5.6 degrees Celsius. At the same time the increase in winter temperatures will be from 3.0 to 5.8 degrees Celsius, and in summer from 3.8 to 5.5 degrees Celsius. The temperature increase will occur against a background of decreased precipitation throughout the region.
Togoibekov calls the rapid climate change a vicious circle influenced by man himself through the development of industrialization, industrial enterprises, the use of oil, gas and coal.
"In short, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere are increasing above normal. This creates a heat trapping effect, not allowing it to escape into the atmosphere - the earth heats up, hence the rapid melting of glaciers, and other negative effects from which people around the world suffer. Natural disasters and anomalies in the form of droughts, mudslides, floods and other things occur more often," he explains.
If the current rate of glacier degradation continues over the next 30-40 years, many small glaciers in Tajikistan will completely disappear and this will significantly affect the water regime of some rivers in Tajikistan, including the Zeravshan, Kafarnigan, Karatag and Obihingou, he said.
"The glaciation area of the country is expected to decrease by 15-20% compared to today. The probability of reduction of water volume in glaciers by 80-100 cu km is assumed. The calculation method has established that, despite the significant retreat, some large glaciers will still remain," the Tajik climatologists believe.
They predict that the potential impact of glacier degradation on water resources could lead to an intense increase in river flows in the short term, but in the long term, it is likely to lead to water shortages due to the depletion of the volume of glaciers.
Some Tajik experts believe that the way to preserve the country's water resources, which may obviously decrease because of intensive melting of glaciers, is to build medium and small reservoirs and to increase forests in mountainous areas.
This material was prepared within the framework of the IWPR project “Amplify, Verify, Engage: Information for Democratisation and Good Governance in Eurasia”, funded by the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, and the mentoring program of the “Development of New Media and Digital Journalism in Central Asia” project, implemented by the Institute for War Reporting and Peace (IWPR) with the support of the UK Government. The content of this publication does not reflect the official views of IWPR, the Norwegian Foreign Office, or the UK Government.