GBAO needs significant assistance from the national authorities and the international community, said Khodjimukhammad Umarov, Doctor of Economics. In his opinion, in the harsh conditions of GBAO, the real results of development can be obtained with a stringent system of public administration.
Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region has special characteristics. The entire territory belongs to the high-mountainous zone and is characterized by a high level of isolation. At the moment GBAO is on the way of gradual overcoming of its geographical insularity.
The distance between the regional center of GBAO and Dushanbe exceeds 650 km, and the distance to Osh (Kyrgyzstan) and to Kashgar is approximately 1000 km. The population of the region is growing relatively fast and now it is about 230 thousand inhabitants.
Because of the highlands in the area, there is little land in the region. The land surface reaches about 18 thousand hectares. The province consists of 7 administrative districts and the city of Khorog.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Government of Tajikistan and local authorities undertook a system of measures for normal life support of the population and development of the region’s economy. Despite the implementation of a number of measures, the region’s economy lags behind other parts of the country.
As a result of the implementation of such measures, the level of wages in Gorno-Badakhshan is close to the national average. The average monthly nominal wage in GBAO in 2021 was 1486 Somoni (about 115 USD, based on the exchange rate of the National Bank of Tajikistan as of 30 March 2022) compared to 1377.17 Somoni (about 107 USD) nationally. In GBAO, nominal wages are higher than in Sughd and Khatlon regions. The same applies to the average monthly pension. In terms of this indicator, GBAO is only behind Dushanbe city.
Average monthly wages in the GBAO compared to other regions of Tajikistan
Other regions of the country and the country as a whole are behind GBAO in terms of pension provision. The size of the monthly pension, as compared to the average monthly nominal wage in GBAO is 32.0% compared to 22.7% on average in Tajikistan and 19.8% compared to Dushanbe city. Certainly, both GBAO and other regions of the country are still far from the level of wages and pensions that would allow people to ensure a standard level of consumption.
Deurbanization processes are underway in Gorno-Badakhshan
Among all regions of Tajikistan, Gorno-Badakhshan is the most ruralized. Here, 86.7% of the population lives in rural areas and only 13.3% in urban settlements.[1]
If we take a close look at the role of wages and pensions in changing the living standards of the population, we can see some figures that cause some concern among researchers.
In GBAO, the processes of deurbanization of society have been going on for the last 10 years, which is considered as a negative phenomenon, since deurbanization leads to an increase in the agrarian overpopulation of society. The latter means a decrease in employment and a corresponding increase in unemployment. This refers to indicators of growth in the average annual number of employees. Over the past 5 years, the number of wage-earners in GBAO has decreased.
In the country as a whole, there is an increase in employment. Unemployment in GBAO is becoming a very sensitive issue. The following figures demonstrate this. According to official statistics, the unemployment rate as a percentage of those employed nationwide is 4.1%. This indicator reaches 2.1% in Dushanbe city, 2.1% in Sughd province, 3.1% in Khatlon province and 19.3% in GBAO.
Gorno-Badakhshan lags behind the national average (19.9%), Dushanbe (19.2%), Sughd (15.6%) and Khatlon (14.1%). This indicator for GBAO reaches 10.1%.[2]
There are certain problems related to the living conditions of the population of GBAO. The latter include, first of all, the average housing availability (total area per inhabitant in m2). The dynamics of this indicator over the past 10 years is not favorable. If in the country scale for the period 2010-2019, the level of housing provision has increased by 25.3%, in particular in Dushanbe city by 11.8%, in Sughd region by 13.9%, in Khatlon region by 15.8%, in RRS by 26.7%, then in GBAO we have seen decrease of this indicator by 8.7%.
The region’s manufacturing industry is facing numerous problems. GBAO produces only 0.9% of the total volume of gross industrial output nationwide, although the region’s population is 2.5% of the total population of the Republic of Tajikistan.
Calculations show that GBAO produces 2.8 times less industrial products per capita compared to the corresponding republican indicator. The total volume of industrial production produced in GBAO in 2019 was 2 million 49 thousand somoni (about 160 thousand US$), which is 52.4 times less compared to the Sughd region.[3]
Sharp decline in grain and potato yields
Rural areas of GBAO are characterized by predominant development of crop and livestock industries. Dependence of rural population on agricultural industry due to unfavorable transport-geographical conditions remains high.
The statistics of this industry shows a sharp deterioration in the production of agricultural products. For example, over the last decade (2010-2019) the production of grains in mountainous Badakhshan decreased by 61.0%, while in DRD there was an increase of grains production by 4.2%, in Khatlon province by 11.6%, in Sughd province by 24.2% and in scale of Tajikistan by 19.2%.
The same applies to potatoes, which is recognized as “second bread” in this province. During this period of time, the volume of potato production in GBAO decreased by 54.0%. However, during the same period of time the gross production of potato in Sughd region increased by 57.3%, in Khatlon region by 6.2%, in Districts of Republican Subordination by 38.5% and in the whole country by 30.8%.
Production of gourds in GBAO decreased even more by 7.8 times. At the same time, both on the national scale and in the context of other regions, there were very high growth rates of melon products (from 36.4% to 198.0%).
Sharp decline in the level of vegetable crops production in this region is also a cause for concern. This indicator decreased by 41.9% throughout GBAO. For comparison we should note that on the scale of the country the total volume of vegetable production increased by 99.9%, in Khatlon it increased by 2.4 times. The growth of crop production in GBAO is observed only for fruits – 31.2%. However, during the same period of time, both on the scale of other regions and on the scale of the country, fruit production exceeded the level achieved in Badakhshan by almost 4 times.[4]
These negative trends are explained by the low level of yield of cereals, legumes, potatoes and other agricultural crops in GBAO. In 2019, grain yield in GBAO was 14.3 cwt/ha, while the national yield of these crops was 30.9 cwt/ha.
Potato yield in the same year in GBAO was 131.9 cwt/ha, while in Sughd region the figure was 200.5 cwt, and in the Districts of Republican Subordination – 198.2 cwt/ha. Studies by the Pamir Biological Institute show that some brigades in Rushan district in Soviet times yielded 550-600 cwt of potatoes per hectare.
In the same year, the yield of vegetables in GBAO was 158.8 cwt. For comparison, the average republican yield of vegetables was 964.6 hectares, including 977.2 hectares in Sughd province and 280.0 hectares in Khatlon province. In GBAO, gourds yield was 150.0 ct, two times lower than in Khatlon. GBAO has more favorable soil and climatic conditions for the production of high yields of potatoes and vegetables.
However, these opportunities are not fully exploited due to problems with specialists, fertilizers and plant protection from insects and diseases. Therefore, the central government of the country should develop a program to dramatically change the situation with yield, both for cereals and legumes, and potatoes, and vegetable crops.
At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the fact that transportation of potatoes, vegetables and gourds, as well as flour from the central regions of the country and from Kyrgyzstan is a very cargo-intensive process, which leads to higher prices in the local markets.
Many believe that the decline in crop production is due to excessive labor migration of the population. However, besides this, there are other reasons (a sharp decrease in the volume of organic fertilizers and a decrease in the proportion of humus in the soil, higher prices for mineral fertilizers, the practical elimination of the system of combating crop pests and diseases).
It should also be noted that from year to year the prices for mineral fertilizers and means of protection against pests and diseases of crops are increasing. Compared with the Soviet period, the use of mineral fertilizers decreased by more than 55%.
All of this combined has led to a deterioration in soil fertility. The percentage of humus concentration in the soil structure in mountain Badakhshan is close to the critical level.
The situation described above for Gorno-Badakhshan is potentially dangerous for food security if we take into account that cultivated areas per capita here are noticeably less compared to all other regions of Tajikistan.
In GBAO there is 0.05 hectares of land per person. This indicator is 0.10 hectares in Sughd, 0.13 hectares in Khatlon province, and 0.9 hectares nationally. In addition, it should be taken into account that sown areas of GBAO are characterized by high stoniness and low level of natural fertility.
Climatic conditions are also not favorable for achieving several harvests per year. While in Khatlon province it is possible to get 6-7 hay crops of alfalfa, in the conditions of mountain Badakhshan, the third hay of this crop is the beginning of the cold season.
The same applies to many grain and legume crops. Hence, the conclusion is that it is necessary to reverse the negative trends that are taking place in the crop production branches of the region. In these industries you can find a lot of examples of highly efficient use of land.
There were times when the Rushansk district received 450 or more quintals of potatoes and fodder beets. In many fine contour areas of the Bartang River valley, 80-90 centners of wheat per hectare were obtained. The high yields were due to the high level of farming culture.
Unfortunately, over the past 30 years, many of the valuable skills of the local population to achieve high yields have been lost. The influence of the region’s agricultural science on the development of field farming has also declined sharply.
In terms of milk production and consumption, GBAO also lags significantly behind other regions of the country. The average milk yield in GBAO is 30-40 kg per cow. This is 5.5 times less than the national average level. For comparison, in the Netherlands, milk yields from one cow exceed 11,000 kg.
By the way, the deceased academician Khudoyor Yusufbekov developed scientifically grounded methods of obtaining high yields and ways of achieving food self-sufficiency of the region, of which the new local leaders have no idea.
Gund Thermal Water Belt can become a producer of greenhouse crops
In terms of live weight meat production, GBAO is ahead of the national average, including Districts of Republican Subordination and Sughd. The exception is Khatlon, where the production of meat per person is 46.5 kg compared to 38.9 kg in GBAO.[5]
But despite the fact that GBAO has created more favorable conditions for the production of red meat than other parts of the country, it is necessary to follow the decisions of international conferences on the sustainable development of mountain regions. This means the implementation of structural changes in the consumption of proteins. There are numerous hot springs in GBAO, which provide an opportunity to increase the production of mushrooms and fungal products, which are substitutes for meat. This refers, first of all, to the belt of thermal waters along the Gund River, which is 12 km long.
Here it is possible by terracing to create numerous greenhouses for the cultivation of mushrooms, as well as subtropical and tropical fruits, bananas, lemons, pineapples, tangerines, oranges, mangoes, etc. Experts are confident that this area can become not only an area of regional, but also of national importance for the production of greenhouse crops.
Unfortunately, due to the low revenues of local budgets and their deficit, there is a widespread opinion that local budgets in GBAO cannot become self-sufficient. This position is supported by the managers who are in the republican offices. This is the reason why the social sphere in GBAO is developing very slowly and is extremely far from meeting the needs of developing modern “human capital”.
Suffice it to say that between 2016 and 2020, no outpatient and polyclinic facilities were introduced in GBAO, while in the Sughd and Khatlon regions, as well as in Dushanbe, a large number of such facilities were put into operation. During this time in GBAO not a single hospital was built and commissioned, while in Khatlon province hospitals with 655 beds were commissioned. It is also completely unjustified that no pre-school institutions have been commissioned in GBAO for the last 5 years. During this time, 1301 pre-school institutions for children were commissioned in Khatlon province and 2049 beds in Dushanbe. Data on retail turnover in Badakhshan shows the income of Badakhshan residents. Retail turnover per capita in GBAO was 74.9% lower than the national average, including 89.2% lower than in Dushanbe city, 61.8% lower than in Districts of Republican Subordination, 79.8% lower than in Sughd and 65.1% lower than in Khatlon region.[6]The same, but more dramatic situation takes place in the implementation of paid services to the population. In GBAO, the level of realization of such services per capita to the average republican level is 27.4%, in particular compared to Dushanbe city 3.9%, and to Sughd oblast 40.7%.[7]
Conclusions and Recommendations
All of the above data indicate that GBAO needs significant assistance from the national authorities and the international community. In our opinion, the following measures seem to be very relevant:
(a) A closer study of the experience of socio-economic development of mountain regions of the world and measures to boost the economy of these regions. Study of experience of countries around the Alpine ridge (Switzerland, Italy, Austria) as well as experience accumulated for development of the Hunza river valley belonging to Pakistan seem to be more useful;
- b) world experience shows that in the harsh conditions of mountain territories real results on socio-economic development of certain administrative territories can be obtained with a rigid system of public administration. It is necessary to proceed from the thesis that the higher the level of underdevelopment of the economy, the greater the need for development of the public sector in the country. At the same time, we should keep in mind that among the methods of state planning and regulation in mountainous areas, it is necessary to put directive methods in the forefront;
- c) it is necessary to make an operational assessment of those resources of Badakhshan, the use of which can lead not only to the elimination of subsidization of regional and district budgets, but also to a drastic increase in development resources. The latter include:
– Organizing the widespread development of folk arts and crafts (Pamir woolen socks and multicolor Badakhshan women’s dresses are already widely popular on a global scale);
– Paying special attention to the development of horticulture, by expanding the area under terraces. This promises favorable opportunities for increasing production of subtropical fruits (pomegranates, figs, lemons, as well as many varieties of vegetables), creation of bone and seed gardens in Darvaz, Vanj, Rushan, Shugnan and Ishkashim districts;
– commissioning of a state-owned liquor distillery in Rushan district to produce mulberry vodka, which can be distributed not only to Central Asian countries, but also to the Russian Federation. Revenues from the sale of such alcoholic beverage should be fully transferred to local budgets;
– extraction and processing of precious and semi-precious stones. Badakhshan is famous for many deposits of such stones. Bringing these stones to the level of final products can also significantly increase the revenues of local budgets;
– The construction of small power plants along mountain streams and saisons throughout the region. This will relieve villages located in deep mountain gorges from the need to pull power lines from the main lines;
– construction of a large power plant at the outflow of waters from Sarez Lake. According to the calculations of specialized institutes, it seems possible to build a 1200 Megawatt hydropower plant at Sarez. With the functioning of small power systems in the gorges of GBAO, the electricity produced by this HPP can be fully exported to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the revenues can be used to increase the overall volume of regional and district budgets;
– Continuation of construction and improvement of roads along the main highway leading to Dushanbe city, Khorog and further to China and Kyrgyzstan. The construction of local roads in the mountain gorges is no less important;
– attraction of Indian and Iranian investors for development of industrial and social infrastructure of GBAO. The Indians are interested in participating in the development of such infrastructure due to the proximity to Pakistan and the contradictions associated with Pakistan’s northern Indian territories. Iranians, on the other hand, may invest resources to develop thermal and therapeutic waters of the Pamirs.
In our opinion, the implementation of such measures can accelerate the socio-economic development of GBAO, its rise to the level of the developed regions of the post-Soviet area.
[1] The calculations on the above data are based on the Articles of the compilation “Regions of Tajikistan. Dushanbe, 2020, pp. 32, 35, 74, 77
[2] The calculations on the above data are based on the Articles of the compilation “Regions of Tajikistan. Dushanbe, 2020, pp. 70, and Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe. 2021, p. 95.
[3] Regions of the Republic of Tajikistan. Dushanbe, 2020, p. 120.
[4] The calculations are based on articles from the collection “Regions of the Republic of Tajikistan,” Dushanbe, 2020, pp. 160, 164, 166.
[5] Regions of the Republic of Tajikistan. Statistical Yearbook Dushanbe, 2020, pp. 244, 245.
[6] Regions of the Republic of Tajikistan. Dushanbe, 2020, pp. 312-315.
[7] Calculations from the same source. pp. 316, 318.