Stabilisation of the situation in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast requires dialogue and implementation of people-to-people contacts using constructive international practices, Tajik analyst Odil Madbekov said.
Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) has become the centre of recent political instability. Since late November 2021, the level of tension in the region has risen sharply and is increasing day by day. This is the result of the fact that the problems of Gorno-Badakhshan have not been solved for several years, and every year the problems become more complicated and take new forms. All this creates big problems for the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and the population of Gorno-Badakhshan.
This raises the following questions: why are there frequent mass protests in GBAO? What is at the root of all these mass rallies? To what do ineffective solutions to problems lead? Why does the region need autonomy? Why can’t political solutions be found to the region’s problems? Why does the central government have no comment on what is happening in GBAO? What is the main cause of protests in the region – social instability or informal leaders?
Why did the protests start?
The first protests in the region took place in July 2012, during a special operation in which both military and civilians were killed. The main reason was the elimination of the informal leaders of GBAO. This caused a huge public outcry and people came out to protest.
Later in August of that year, the so-called informal leader of GBAO, Imomnazar Imomnazarov, was killed, after which people came out to protest again with his body in the central square. Then the authorities managed to resolve the situation and the region returned to its former life. A similar situation repeated itself in 2014, when a car was fired at and killed two Khorog residents. This prompted new mass protests against this method of action by the security forces.
If we look at the chronology of all the protests, the same events and the same problems that have never been resolved occur every three to four years.
In 2018, President Emomali Rahmon sharply criticised the local administration and security forces during a visit to GBAO. Following this, an additional military contingent was deployed in GBAO. However, fortifying the region was not a solution to the problem either, on the contrary, it exacerbated the situation. The events of November 2021, which again did not solve the basic problems, alarmed many fellow citizens both inside and outside the country.
This shows that the power method of solving problems is ineffective and has not worked for a decade. The only alternative left is the path of dialogue and agreement, but which, alas, has received less attention. Obviously, delaying solutions to problems at an early stage will transform the problems and lead to their emergence in another form. That is, they will be transformed into problems for which solutions will already be disastrously difficult to find, if at all possible.
What underlies the mass rallies in GBAO?
If we look at the chronology of events of the protests in GBAO, it is clear that the problem needs to be studied in depth and in a comprehensive way. Underlying these difficulties is the fact that the oblast administration is in no way able to solve the internal problems on its own due to the lack of political regulation mechanisms. If there are some weaknesses at the administrative level, then other methods, such as forceful, military methods, are used rather than political ones.
The main problem in GBAO is that the representatives of the local hukumat (local executive body – editor’s note) represented by the chairmen of the region for many years have failed to establish a proper contact with the public. This vacuum has led to great distrust of the local population towards the region’s leadership.
Almost since 2012, a kind of “militocracy” – the power of the military – has ruled the region. This leads to the fact that all political and administrative affairs of the region are solved by military methods with the involvement of the military and security forces themselves, hence the discontent of the population. An example of this is the fact that since 2018, an additional military contingent has been introduced into the region; an inter-agency headquarters (sitodi bainiyidoravi) has been set up in Khorog, the administrative centre of the region, to fight crime. Seven roadblocks with armed law enforcement officers are operating in the city. The question arises why, in peacetime, there are so many roadblocks and armed law enforcers in a small town when there is not even a trace of international terrorism and extremism in the region. This causes enormous resentment among the population and ultimately leads to the worst tragic events themselves.
In 2018, when Yodgor Faizov became chairman of GBAO, it was a very astute move by Dushanbe towards the region because Faizov enjoyed immense popularity among the local population and even in 2012 and 2018 he was the mediator between the authorities and the local population in resolving conflicts. Yodgor Faizov had been in this position for three years and the region had almost forgotten about the protests. He succeeded in this task for the first time in the history of the region in independent Tajikistan.
After Faizov was removed from office, Khorog Mayor Alisher Mirzonabot was appointed to replace him. Attempts began again to solve problems by military means, which had previously failed to justify themselves. After two weeks as acting chairman of the GBAO, the young Mirzonabot wanted to prove himself and immediately took the risk of carrying out some kind of “reform” by military means. He organised a special operation to demonstrate his loyalty to the centre in the fight against crime. However, the event had the opposite effect, leading to an increased alienation of the population from the authorities, and above all from the security forces. As a result, operating in such an atmosphere in the future will be very difficult for the authorities in the region.
Are the protests in GBAO caused by social instability or ‘informal leaders’?
Struggles between security forces and warlords in GBAO began in the 1990s, when the country was embroiled in a civil war. But the era of civil war war-time warlords is now over as the country has achieved long-awaited peace and harmony.
In the wake of political and socio-economic challenges, the region speaks of the emergence of new types of threats represented by so-called “informal leaders”. But for a decade the security forces have been working to eliminate these leaders, who, according to local authorities, have a negative influence on the local youth and are the source of many misfortunes in the region. But this does not yield any result. Even with the liquidation of these individuals the situation is not improving but on the contrary, it is taking on a new form, as if there is some kind of “mutation” of these “informal leaders” and their “organised criminal groups”.
While some see the region’s problems in the existence of informal leaders, others attribute it to the difficult living conditions in the region: youth unemployment, high food prices, etc. Even in comparison with other provinces of the Republic of Tajikistan, GBAO is an economically backward region. The region is subsidized from the national budget. All this is due to climatic conditions of the region, where mountains constitute 98% and there is little arable land, there are no industrial enterprises and level of unemployment is the highest in the republic. And there are practically no conditions for entrepreneurship due to the absence of a competitive market. Prices in the region are the highest in the country: due to logistics they are 30% higher than in Dushanbe and other regions.
In terms of resources, GBAO is one of the richest regions of the country. There are many deposits of minerals and precious stones. All these large deposits are leased to Chinese companies for mining development. Domestic companies are not involved in mining and developing the deposits and resources, and the lack of local expertise directly affects the use of these resources.
Where does inefficiency lead to?
GBAO is a distinctive region, and by all accounts different from other parts of the country. At this stage, there is a crisis of confidence and a lack of instruments for conflict resolution. The authorities cannot yet find ways for a dialogue with the population and, with the help of the only source of information, the local Badakhshon TV channel, are trying to shape public opinion to normalise the situation.
But so far for two months such a method of solving problems has not worked at all. And the situation is still tense. It is necessary to reduce the level of tension in the region, because tension in turn leads to chaos and very tragic consequences. What is needed is dialogue and the implementation of contact with the population, using constructive international practices. If purely military methods are used to solve the issue, it will not lead to anything good.
The importance of autonomy for the region
Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast is one of the most inaccessible regions of Tajikistan, occupying 47% of the country. According to official sources the population of the region is about 250 thousand people. The region is essentially unique, with many features such as religious, ethnic, some linguistic and cultural differences. It was on the basis of these features that the Soviet Union gave the region the status of autonomy. But one may wonder why autonomy is important for the region.
Firstly, Gorno-Badakhshan is still home to small nationalities that differ from other regions of Tajikistan in their religious, ethnic and linguistic characteristics as well as in their cultural peculiarities.
Secondly, the geographical and climatic conditions of the region are extreme and harsh, which entails the autonomous resolution of some important issues concerning this situation. For this reason, the Constitutional Law of the Republic of Tajikistan on Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region[1], which reflects all principles and activities of the region, was adopted.
However, after the events at the end of November 2021, there were hints to change or even cancel the autonomous status of GBAO. The culmination was the speeches of people’s deputies of Darwaz and Vanj districts at the Regional Council of Deputies[2], who declared about withdrawal of these districts from the territory of GBAO under the pretext that the region allegedly does not allow development of these districts due to lack of stability and high crime rate. But this speech rather backfired and led to widespread discontent among residents of these districts. If the functions and importance of the autonomy is carefully studied, the situation will take a new turn and solutions will be found.
Why the central government has not commented on what is happening in GBAO in any way?
After the November events in GBAO, everyone hoped for the inclusion of the central government in addressing pressing and overdue issues. There was some hope for the president or parliament speaker to address the problems, but official Dushanbe made no comment. People’s expectations that President Emomali Rahmon would address the issue in his next address to parliament in December 2021 (this time a month earlier) were not met; the head of state did not talk about GBAO. This may be an indication that the investigation into events in GBAO is not yet complete and that the central government will have no comment on the situation until there are concrete results.
Conclusions
The mass protests in GBAO are taking place because of the lack of constructive decisions by the regional administration. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of autonomy in the region and take into account the religious and ethnic peculiarities of the population. Some experts link the protests to the influence of external forces or criminals. However, it is obvious that the main problems, above all socio-economic ones, have a direct internal character.
Recommendations
- Special attention should be paid to the status of autonomy in the region and the historical experience of regional administration.
- Strengthen the administrative system of the region and demilitarise the region.
- Resolve conflicts through dialogue and constructive methods. Open regional and provincial enterprises and pay special attention to the training of internal specialists for the development and utilisation of natural resources.
- Utilise and develop human capital and information technology for use on a variety of levels and sectors.
- Create new jobs for the younger generation, especially in areas close to web-programming and new technologies.
[1] CONSTITUTIONAL LAW OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN ON THE GORNO-BADAHSHAN AUTONOMIC AREA// Adopted by Resolution of the Majlisi Namoyandagon Majlisi Oli of the Republic of Tajikistan, June 6, 2007, № 605 (Ahbori Majlisi Oli of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2007, No. 6, Art. 476)// Approved by Decree of the Majlisi Milli of the Majlisi Oli of the Republic of Tajikistan, 19 July 2007, No. 373 (Ahbori Majlisi Oli of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2007, No. 7, Art. 715) (Ahbori Majlisi Oli of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2007, No. 7, Art. 653; Law of RT, 02/01/1493).
[2] DARWAZA MP: IF THE SITUATION IN GBAO DOES NOT CALM DOWN, THE RESIDENTS OF DARWAZA MAY SECEDE FROM THE REGION https://www.youtube.com/watch?V=5emezjr4flq