The idea of creating a security belt around Afghanistan should be urgently implemented, said Umed Khakimov, a CABAR.asia analyst school participant. The initiative requires an urgent and timely response from the border states and Central Asian countries.
Back in 1998, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon spoke at the UN with the initiative ” about creating a security belt around Afghanistan”. This idea was relevant before the entry of U.S. troops into Afghanistan in 2001. At that time, after the fall of the first Taliban government in Kabul, there was hope for the establishment of an adequate secular government in Afghanistan, and then the initiative to create a security belt was forgotten.
But with the return to power of the Taliban (banned in most Central Asian countries and considered to be of terrorist origin) in the summer of 2021, proponents of a security belt around Afghanistan grew in number. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and India have been promoting such ideas.
Threats emanating from Afghanistan:
The infiltration of members of terrorist groups under the guise of refugees into any country, entailing natural destabilization within those countries.
After the Taliban came to power, huge flows of refugees from Afghanistan poured into all countries of the world. According to the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, all UN member states are obliged to accept refugees who are in danger of losing their lives in their country of origin. But we cannot rule out the fact that members of terrorist groups have learned to carefully blend in with the crowd, and hide their identities. The infiltration of single terrorists or group members into Afghanistan is currently not controlled in any way. In the same way, they can travel out of there under the guise of refugees. This poses a threat of infiltration and creation of extremist cells in other countries under the guise of refugees, especially in Central Asia.
The factor of a terrorist group taking power and being recognized as legitimate by other states may serve as a motivating factor for other such dangerous terrorist and extremist groups in other countries.
Groups such as Al-Qaeda, ISIS-Khorasan, the Haqqani Network, and even ISIS, which are banned in several Central Asian countries, are now celebrating the victory of the Taliban.
Although they do not make any statements about their joyous event. Perhaps this is due to their aim to avoid demonstrating their connection with the Taliban, as the latter need to gain the trust of the global community. They just stand behind the scenes and continue their activities. It is also very important here to remember the existence of Al-Qaeda affiliates in Somalia, Mali and the Sahel, for whom the Taliban’s victory could be an example. And it turns out that if they seize power in those countries where they are active, they could also become a legitimate power recognized by the international community.
Therefore, the policy of non-recognition of the Taliban as a legitimate power in Afghanistan is appropriate. Otherwise, it is impossible to avoid a chain reaction. Because the recognition of the Taliban’s power would lead to the activation of radical terrorist organizations that have been hitherto in the shadows. Recognition of one terrorist organization means recognition of all the others.
The economic crisis and the government’s failure to provide economic security for its citizens will directly cause economic problems for Afghanistan’s partner states.
The Taliban is a terrorist organization, capable mainly only of fighting and promoting its interpretation of the peaceful religion of Islam, using radical ideas, which, except for restrictions, give nothing to the citizens of Afghanistan.
And their absolute lack of ability to rationally manage the economy of the state may soon become a problem not only for Afghanistan itself but also for its economic partners. Poverty and unemployment are on the rise in the country. All of this will eventually lead to economic collapse. The U.N. calls for the prevention of a humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan, but the world community is not ready to provide enough assistance at the moment. Right now, out of 100 percent of the requested humanitarian aid for Afghanistan, UN agencies have received only 35 percent.
Increased production and smuggling of narcotic substances
The lack of alternative livelihoods for the population will lead to an increase in the number of people engaged in opium cultivation. This in turn will lead to an increase in exports of narcotic substances, not only to Central Asian countries but throughout the world, where Central Asia will play the role of a buffer zone. It is unlikely that the Taliban will give up the income that opium cultivation will bring them. We know from their previous experience in Afghanistan that they encouraged the cultivation of narcotic substances, and even levied taxes on them, which they then used to support the military confrontation. And now they will use it to strengthen their power.
The rate of opium production in Afghanistan has only increased over the years. This year, according to the UN, opium production in Afghanistan increased by 8 percent to 6.8 thousand tons. Due to the current economic situation, we can assume that this trend will be further continued.
The limitless expansion of terrorism and extremism into neighboring countries.
The Taliban promise not to attack, but that promise in no way guarantees the absence of the threat posed by the various ethnic groups currently present in Afghanistan, including quite a few from the former Soviet Union. After ISIS fighters collapsed in Syria and Iraq, Afghanistan became a new location for them. According to a report by The Soufan Center, the total number of fighters from Central Asia who left for Syria and Iraq exceeds 5,000. If we break them down by countries of origin, the results would look as follows: Kazakhstan – more than 500 (11.90%), Kyrgyzstan – more than 500 (11.90%), Tajikistan – more than 1,300 (30.95%), Turkmenistan – more than 400 (9.52%), Uzbekistan – more than 1,500 (35.71%).
These threats are the most important problems in preserving the security of the national interests of all neighboring countries. Since they are important, urgent, and taking place in today’s realities that concern the whole region and possibly the world, the question arises of how the border states can maintain their national security, prevent the expansion of extremism and terrorism on their territory without losing their economic partner in Afghanistan.
The solution to these problems could be the creation of a “security belt around Afghanistan”.
Why is there a need for the Security Belt around Afghanistan?
The first is to avoid the expansion of terrorism and extremism into any state. The role of each country’s national security agencies will be invaluable, given the role of filtering real refugees from “fictitious” ones. A thorough examination of each refugee’s history is required to avoid infiltration by extremists undercover. Collaboration and cooperation between security agencies in different countries can be an effective solution to this issue.
Second, the cooperation of border security agencies within the security belt around Afghanistan could be a deterrent to extremist and terrorist groups attempting to invade the borders of these countries. Ensuring the security of the Tajik-Afghan or Uzbek-Afghan borders, for example, will protect not only the national interests of Tajikistan or Uzbekistan but also those of the CSTO member states and all other countries of the world.
Thirdly, the creation of a secure economic corridor provides an opportunity for the safe transportation of trade goods. Since 2003, China has been actively promoting the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which implies recreating the historical route of the Silk Road, which runs through the Central Asian countries.
China is ready to invest in Central Asian infrastructure to implement its initiative. But it is cautious because of potential threats. If the two strategies “Security Belt around Afghanistan” and “One Belt – One Road” were docked within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it would be possible to build routes even along the border of Afghanistan without fear. In this case, there would be a guarantee of protection of the economic corridor from possible threats coming from various Afghan groups: the hijacking of goods, racketeering, looting, kidnapping.
Fourthly, the assistance of countries in controlling and strengthening the borders around Afghanistan to prevent not only the export of drugs, but also the import of chemicals for the production of drugs can be a good method of combating drug trafficking. Since Afghanistan’s share of the global heroin market is 90%, it turns out that cutting off the transit of narcotic substances on Afghanistan’s borders alone would cut off 90% of the heroin flowing into the world market.
Fifth, because the threats posed by the Taliban government concern not only the Central Asian region but also other neighboring countries, the initiative to establish a security belt around Afghanistan in the context of the current situation can become the catalyst for a new integration process, that is, the creation of an alliance between the CSTO and SCO states plus Iran, India and Pakistan. An important point is that the absence of any state, in this case, is impossible. For example, if Pakistan is not included in this alliance, then we will have to create a security belt around it as well, because expansion of terrorism and extremism through the territory of Pakistan is possible.
Thus, we can conclude that Afghanistan is currently the ideal habitat for any radical group. The current authorities are not able to fully control the territory of Afghanistan, which enables extremist organizations to use the country as a platform for regrouping and consolidating their forces.
For the implementation of the “Security Belt around Afghanistan” initiative, we can recommend the following:
– It is necessary to create a kind of symbiosis: CIS, CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia), CSTO, SCO. The international organizations and countries-participants should coordinate the regional strategy for timely responding to threats coming from the current Afghan government.
– Establish a single think tank comprised of representatives of security agencies from each participating country. This think tank should collect information in a timely manner, process it and promptly cooperate with the border services of each member state.
– Operation “Kanal” showed its effectiveness in the fight against drug trafficking. Therefore it is necessary to take it as a basis and continue its implementation on the background of a wider range of participants in order to conduct joint operations to combat and counter drug trafficking.
– The creation of a single cyber shield in the era of digital technology can be an effective method of combating extremism, terrorism, drug trafficking, “fictitious” refugees and other threats at an early stage of its development.
– In spite of everything, to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan, the member countries, international organizations and the world community as a whole should assist and provide humanitarian aid to the Afghan people.
It is also necessary to assist in economic reconstruction of Afghanistan, even if the Taliban power is not recognized. The country is a trade partner for the Central Asian states.
In spite of all the threats coming from the current Taliban government, the international community needs to help Afghanistan to recover economically and avoid a humanitarian catastrophe. Otherwise, the despair of the local population will force them to return to the business of feeding their families: cultivating and selling opium, taking up arms and looting, and joining the extremists and terrorists. Therefore, Afghanistan must be able to conduct normal economic activities to avoid economic collapse.