“The current focus exists on agriculture, irrigation and construction, which are the already existing and functioning economic sectors in the region. While the need for further industrialization of the region has been highlighted by policymakers, there is no clear provision for the formulation of the main building block for such circumstances: the workforce and academia that will generate the ecosystem for various industrial sectors to thrive”, – writes analyst Dimitris Simeonidis, exclusively for CABAR.asia.
They say that it usually takes a disruptive event to give birth to change in a region and Karakalpakstan has definitely been the case. Nukus faced unprecedented unrest in July, with the death toll mounting up to at least 21 people. The month that followed the violent clashes included a knee jerk reaction from the government, where an elaborate plan to ameliorate living and working conditions was announced. In addition, political reforms took place, with a new Karakalpak leadership being the most prevalent one. While many of the measures that are currently taking place are indeed much needed ones and are expected to alleviate the social and economic stress from society, it is not a complete solution and it does not account for solutions that will alleviate the most important tension in the autonomous region: the climate crisis. It presents great interest to highlight the most useful policies proposed so far and also reflect on the deficiencies of the current bill for Karakalpakstan.
New Leadership?
The biggest political reform was essentially the latest. In August 26, former President of Karakalpakstan Murat Kamalov was dismissed “due to illness” and his replacement was elected in the Jokary Kenes. This replacement was Amanbai Orynbaev, former Minister of Internal Affairs. The fact that his tenure in the aforementioned position was held between March and July and therefore he was acting as Minister during the violent repression of the disputes might not make this election seen as the most fitting one from the general public. His record within the Ministry also encompasses holding positions in the probation service and in the public security departments, which come to reinforce this view. There is, thus, a good probability that earning the Karakalpak citizens’ trust will be a challenging task for the newly elected President in Nukus.
Positive social reforms
The package of reforms that was introduced last week can be considered comprehensive on the societal sector, especially concerning the focus on education. More specifically, the percentage of children receiving pre-school education will be increased from 38% to the stunning figure of 72%, whereas there will be a quota of at least 6.500 high school Karakalpak students attending universities and higher education institutes. The measures also tackle the topic of vocational training, as young people will receive training in foreign languages and entrepreneurship, which can certainly be instrumental in them becoming extrovert and developing skills necessary for trade. Finally, financial support for the purchase of coal, gas and food amidst the multi-faceted global crisis is taken into consideration.
The main deficiency of this section lies in the fields of focus for the vocational training. The current focus exists on agriculture, irrigation and construction, which are the already existing and functioning economic sectors in the region. While the need for further industrialization of the region has been highlighted by policymakers, there is no clear provision for the formulation of the main building block for such circumstances: the workforce and academia that will generate the ecosystem for various industrial sectors to thrive. The only indirect measure proposed is the creation of “youth industrial and entrepreneurial zones” in Kegeyli and Khojeyli, with their exact purpose still unidentified. As a final remark, the announced financial support was considered a substantial relief for households at first, but with current projections being revisited every day, additional fiscal and monetary instruments will need to be considered over the coming months, so it ought not to be considered a one-time offer.
Substantial Infrastructure Support – but more needed
The Uzbek government decided to fund a great number of infrastructure projects around Karakalpakstan, in the water, energy, and transport sector, with the Guzar-Bukhara-Nukus-Beineu highway being the flagship project. This work is bound to bring a decrease to potable water shortages and power cuts, but also facilitate larger crops and a bloom of the agricultural sector.
Nevertheless, two main points can be raised for amelioration towards policymakers.
Firstly, there should be a clearer and more elaborate strategy for the international outreach of Karakalpakstan. At the moment, the landscape is significantly vague. This is increasingly important for two reasons. The first one is that Karakalpakstan possesses a great deal of deserted land. Desert greening practices can convert the region into an exporter of agricultural products, which is of extreme value amidst a food security crisis in Central Asia. The second one is that internationally-oriented infrastructure can contribute to joint exploitation of water bodies, such as the Sarygamysh lake in the border with Turkmenistan.
Secondly, a special financing package for modernization and digitization would be beneficial for the western Uzbekistan region. Recently, ACWA came into agreement with the President Mirziyoyev to develop the world’s largest wind park in the world, with a total capacity of 1.5GW and this will include the Karakalpak desert. In order to support renewable energy infrastructure, the grid should be ready, with modernized transmission and distribution lines, management equipment and regulations that support a decentralized structure. An example would be subsidizing the establishment of local renewable energy communities.
Promises on industrial growth
Finally, the most ambitious plan so far proposed by Tashkent lies in the industrial sector. A technology park of 10 hectares in Nukus is the current price-trophy and it has been championed by many as the project that will finally bring industrialization in western Uzbekistan. This comes together with a 70% coverage of transportation costs for Karakalpak exporters, but also with the foundation of a youth entrepreneurial zone that is mentioned above as well. There are reasons for skepticism on this announcement. Primarily, such a high coverage rate for transportation costs might face feasibility issues, especially in the event that Karakalpak exporters become extrovert enough to develop international supply chains. Secondly, as with previous decisions, there is no clear strategy on which specific parts of the industry will be addressed in the industrial park. Policies and decisions ought to be taken, contemplating on the resources that are most at abundance in the region, but also based on what the workforce could support. Copper and chemical production facilities would be a good start, but without the corresponding strategy, there is always the risk that these factories will be short-lived.
In a nutshell: Good start, but much more expected
President Mirziyoyev and his cabinet showed the right reflexes after the events of violence in Nukus this July. The government issued a list of policies that would be followed in order to alleviate the society, because, as the president himself mentioned it, “it was mostly a societal issue”. However, with this statement, the president is losing the bigger picture. The unrest was a result of environmental, societal, economic issues that were, eventually, enhanced by mistreatment from the authorities. Thus, the proposed bill is missing several elements. It would not be advisable that governmental figures in the security and public order ministry become regional leaders, as that might bring issues to regional stability. Moreover, the overall strategy should be formulated with the long-term ambitions in mind. More financial support and clearer propositions ought to take place in order to better promote sustainable agricultural practices, renewable energy deployment, youth development and entrepreneurship, as well as industrial growth. However, pessimism would be the wrong way to approach the issue. The existing bill is a great first step towards amelioration the relations of the central Tashkent government with the citizens in Nukus. The road ahead is expected to be bumpy, but if both parties take steps towards the right direction, stability will prevail and Uzbekistan as a whole will be largely benefitted.