Kazakhstan summarised the results of extraordinary elections to the lower house of parliament (Mazhilis) and local governments (maslikhat). The voting process was a part of the political reform declared by President Tokayev after the January protests one year ago. However, these elections showed the lowest voter turnout in recent years, while independent observers reported many violations.
Authors of the political reform brought back the combined majority-proportional system to the parliament, which was cancelled in 2007, and the threshold for parties to enter the parliament was decreased from seven to five per cent. Now 70 per cent of deputies are elected by party lists, 30 per cent are elected by majority constituencies. 29 seats promised to candidates under one-candidate constituencies in the Mazhilis increased the political activity of civil society actors anyway.
According to February data of the Central Election Commission (CEC), 15 candidates ran for one seat in the mazhilis. The ministry of justice registered two new parties, whose leaders were not active voters previously – ‘Baitak’, which represents itself as the Green Party, and ‘Respublika’, the party of bloggers and young businessmen. The opposition movement ‘Alga, Kazakhstan’, which applied for registration 12 times, was not allowed for the election by the ministry of justice. The election campaign looked quite active, mainly on social media. According to international observers, candidates avoided holding outdoor protests; in some cases, local authorities did not permit such events.Election campaigns missed the audience
According to the independent study of voting preferences of Kazakhstanis, held by the DEMOSCOPE, Bureau for Express Monitoring of Public Opinion just before the elections, jointly with the PaperLab Centre, 62.5 per cent of citizens think that none contesting party represents their interests. 64.1 per cent of respondents said that no one represents their interests among candidates to the Mazhilis.
“Survey results show the significant level of uncertainty in the voting preferences of Kazakhstanis. Thus, on the threshold of elections, the majority (61.2 per cent) did not yet decide what party to vote for,” wrote demoscope on its website.
Sociologists detected high level of public need for the voting process transparency. The absolute majority of citizens (92.4 per cent) find it essential to have elections without rigging. Moreover, researchers noted that 55.9 per cent of citizens are convinced that voting results in Kazakhstan are predetermined and little depends on voters.
Seven parties were competing for 70 per cent of seats in the parliament: the ruling party ‘Amanat’ (formerly known as Nurotan, created by ex-president Nazarbayev), ‘Respublika’, ‘Akzhol’ (party of businessmen), ‘Baitak’, ‘Auyl’ (party of agrarians), NPK (ex-Communist Party), and OSDP (social democrats).
The course of elections
Nomination of candidates under single-member constituencies contributed to more active monitoring of the voting process and ballot counting. Dozens of videos where independent observers and candidates’ agents recorded facts of ballot stuffing, carousel voting and other violations were posted on social media.
According to public foundation ‘Yerkindik kanaty’, which observed the elections in Astana, chairs of election commissions often prohibited observers to make photos and videos, restricted their movement around the polling station. 11 observers were removed from polling stations for a variety of reasons. Observers from nominal non-governmental public associations created with participation of the authorities contributed to such removals through provocations. In Astana, ‘Yerkindik kanaty’ reported the voter turnout at 19.7 per cent, while the CEC provided information about the turnout of 42.91 per cent of voters.
“When commission members understand that they have to do something to increase the voter turnout, they start to remove observers. Almost all stations had cases of refusal to issue protocols,” said Elena Shvetsova, co-founder of the foundation, at the press conference on March 20.
OSCE observers added some criticism to the elections, too. They emphasised that 54 candidates running under the majority rule were removed from the election race for early promotion and based on inconsistencies in their tax returns.
“Sanctions for violation of campaign and campaign finance rules are disproportionate, which is contrary to international standards, and include deregistration of candidates. The fact that deadlines for verification of candidate documentation were not aligned with the start of the official campaign resulted in uncertainty for some candidates about their status until the end of the campaign,” according to the statement of preliminary findings and conclusions of the OSCE election observation mission.
International Election Observation Mission (IEOM) assessed counting negatively in 58 of the 128 polling stations observed due to significant procedural errors and omissions and disregard of reconciliation procedures.
“The transparency of the process was further undermined by the fact that no disaggregated election results at a regional or local level were published. IEOM observers consistently noted discrepancies between the number of voters casting their ballots and the officially reported preliminary turnout figures. Overall, the counting process raised questions about whether ballots were counted and reported honestly, in line with paragraph 7.4 of the 1990 OSCE Copenhagen Document,” said the statement of the OSCE mission.
On March 20, citizens trying to protest against violations during elections were detained in Astana. It was reported by leader of movement ‘Alga, Kazakhstan’, Murat Zhylanbayev.
Election results
Six of seven parties taking part in the elections achieved the five-percent threshold. Only the greens, ‘Baitak’, will not pass to the parliament. According to preliminary data of CEC, ‘Amanat’ has 53.9 per cent of votes, ‘Auyl’ has 10.9 per cent, ‘Ak-zhol’ has 8.41 per cent of votes, People’s Party of Kazakhstan – 6.8 per cent, ‘Respublika’ – 8.59 per cent, General National Social Democratic Party – 5.2 per cent of votes.
It’s noteworthy that the law does not prohibit to party members to run as candidates. As a result, the majority of seats under single-member constituencies were won by the members of ‘Amanat’. Only six of over 500 independent candidates will receive badges of MPs.
According to preliminary data of CEC, the official voter turnout at the previous elections was 54.19 per cent. Counting made by independent observers shows lower turnout, but even official data show the low interest of voters in voting.
Sociologist Yeset Yesengarayev said that politicians participating in the elections could not catch the interest of citizens to their ideas and plans.
“It turns out that we do not have figures who can run for the parliament. There were ten figures, at most, among candidates under single-member constituency who excited public opinion, five of whom were active. The majority of candidates under single-member constituency failed to create a niche for themselves and did not have a stable constituency,” said Yeset Yesengarayev.
According to him, low voter activity is related to the undeveloped civil society and low social activity of Kazakhstanis. Restricted political liberalisation provided by the government contributed to the limited capacity of the society.
“We have the shocking infantilism of our oppositionists, who claimed back in the 00s that they were not allowed to come to power. During the period, the level of politicians has not increased. The voter will follow charismatic leaders, who have some ideological foundation, add values to the society, appealing to their own political philosophy, who have experience of making changes at least at the local level. Few people perform such work at the system level. Our parties revive only before the elections,” Yesengarayev said.
According to the expert, real democratic transformations must come from the society itself. To do this, we need to have large experience of civil self-organisation, creation of social movements at local levels. However, it is not enough to expect democratic changes.
On March 20, at the press conference in Almaty, some independent candidates stated that they did not agree with election results and said they wanted to challenge the election results in court.
Main photo: Аkhmat Isayev