Kazakhstan is finalising the results of the snap presidential election. According to the exit poll, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, who have headed the republic after Nursultan Nazarbayev left office in 2019, has won 80 per cent of votes. Nazarbayev has already congratulated his successor on the new presidential term.
Reforms without reforms
Mass protests in Kazakhstan this January showed that people do not want to live waiting for changes. Such calls as “Shal, ket!” (“Old man, go away!”) voiced at the squares showed the wish not only to get rid of the influence of ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev in his status of Yelbasy (leader of the nation), but also to change the political system established by hm.
At the end of January, after the bloody events, when over 200 persons were shot dead, Tokayev in his interview to the state media promised that there would be “no adaptation of laws and particularly the Constitution”. In March, Tokayev announced political reforms, and in June, Kazakhstan held the referendum on amendments to the Constitution, which promised the redistribution of power and strengthened role of the parliament.
However, no visible changes have happened. For example, all references to Nursultan Nazarbayev were removed from the constitution, and the society expected that the law “On the first president – Yelbasy” would be revoked. It could be a symbol of the end of the Nazarbayev epoch. However, the law is still there.
“The law on yelbasy was not revoked. Probably, that’s why we still can feel the influence of the yelbasy. If they remove the status of “yelbasy”, we can expect some changes, but if they fail to, everything would remain as it is,” said ex-deputy of parliament, politician Ualikhan Kaisarov.
The situation worsened because Tokayev, a few months after the constitutional referendum, proposed the initiative to increase the term of presidential official from 5 to 7 years, to prohibit re-election for the second term, and to announce snap presidential election.
This incoherence of President Tokayev causes distrust in the society.
“I, as a researcher, can see that the wave of expectation and hope turns into disappointment and apathy because we can see imitation instead of changes, preservation of the centralised government instead of redistribution of power. Instead of new parties we see the same parties (as we had previously – editor), and instead of fair election we see presidential election for 7-year term and with current candidates,” said Serik Beisembaev, head of the think-tank PaperLab, at the open discussion in Astana on October 28.
The election campaign was indeed listless. Kazakhstanis were little aware of Tokayev’s rivals – public figure Karakat Abden, entrepreneur Zhiguli Dairabaev, human rights activist Saltanat Tursynbekova, economist-researcher Meiram Kazhyken, and chair of the capital branch of the Nationwide Social Democratic Party Nurlan Auesbaev failed to draw public attention to their election campaigns. The requirements to candidates that remained in the Constitution created by President Nazarbayev, such as the mandatory five-year experience in civil service have significantly limited access of independent candidates to the presidential race.
“At first, everyone wondered who’s going to be the alternative to Tokayev. But the opposition failed to nominate one candidate and it lost heavily in this regard. After the nomination, it became clear for the public that there were no worthy candidates, and Tokayev was in the most comfortable conditions, and the society lost interest to this election,” said Ualikhan Kaisarov.
Independent observers and assistants of election commissions
However, not all Kazakhstanis took the election process apathetically. In 2019, when Tokayev was nominated for the first time, the movement of independent observers was established in Kazakhstan. Three years ago, citizens organised protest vote and elected candidate Amirzhan Kosanov as an alternative to Tokayev. Mobilisation of independent observers helped not only to draw public attention to the facts of breaches at ballot stations, but also showed the willingness and desire of Kazakhstanis to influence political events.
“In 2019, for the first time in the history of Kazakhstan, we encountered the fact when the candidate of the government (Tokayev – editor) won just over 70 per cent of votes, although the yelbasy always won much more votes. The authorities learned this lesson and realised that observers were a threat to them. Since 2021, the state follows the path of creation of their “own civil society” and, moreover, constantly produces legal acts that restrict the work of observers,” said Roman Reimer, co-founder of public foundation “Yerkindik Kanaty” (“Wings of Freedom”).
Their “own civil society” stands for some public organisations that have massively taught citizens to observe elections. “They work at the station not as observers, but as the right hand of the chair. There is some kind of merge between the election commission members and observers,” said Roman Reimer.
On November 7, “Erkindik kanaty” foundation said about the mass attack related to personal data leakage from the own database of observers. The administration of the foundation suggested that what happened was a coordinated campaign in order to discredit “Erkindik Kanaty”, to distract the foundation’s attention from the observation mission.
On the election day, November 20, the League of Young Voters, foundation “Erkindik Kanaty” and other independent observers said about the facts of breaches at ballot stations and obstruction of the mission, as well as removal of observers who tried to record and stop unlawful actions.
“They are restricted in movement by keeping them within the area marked by red tapes, asked to sit on their chairs, threatened to be removed for questions about voter turnout, opening protocols and for “disturbing”. This year’s election was different from previous elections because commissions learned well subparagraph 3, paragraph 3, article 20-1 of the law “On elections”, which said that the observer must “not take actions hindering the work of the election commission,” according to the League of Young Voters.
Despite the obstacles, independent observers have managed to gather facts of breaches. They reported ballot box stuffing and pressure from election commissions; not all observers could receive minutes of voting sealed with a wet stamp.
Organisations who were independent observers try to challenge removal of some observers from ballot stations on November 20. However, there have been no reports of their support in courts.
Protests on the election day
Activists have been detained in Almaty. Participants of the movement “Oyan, Qazaqstan!” were detained by police officers during the action of protest. “Will we live so see fair elections?” Oyan members have written on the poster.
“Today, activists of “Oyan, Qazaqstan!” held the action of protest against the elections at Almaty in front of the independence monument in the square of Republic and were immediately detained by the police. They were taken to police stations in two cars,” activists wrote on their Facebook page. (Photo taken from the account of “Oyan, Qazaqstan” movement)
On the election day, Almaty faced protests of activists of the Democratic Party of Kazakhstan (DPK) who protested against snap presidential election. They were also detained by the police. Later on, Oyan and DPK members were released by the police. Only Kazakhstani Bakhtiyar Mendybai could freely express his opinion about elections without the risk of being detained by the police. He protested in front of the embassy of Kazakhstan in the United States, where the ballot station was open, holding the portraits of Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev and four-year-old Aikorkem Meldekhan, who was killed during the January protests in Almaty.
Three days before the election, the authorities had said about the threat to the society from some criminal group consisting of seven persons, who planned, according to KNB, mass disorders on November 20. Suspects were detained. Their motives were not reported.
“With the permission of the prosecutor’s office, we have documented their preparation of mass disorders, attacks on administrative buildings of state and law enforcement bodies, vital infrastructure, with the use of arms and combustion mixtures,” as the press service of KNB reported on November 17.
What to expect in the next seven years
According to the exit poll, the column “against all” received the majority of votes after the Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev column, 3 to 5 per cent, according to various data, which proves low trust in rivals. According to CEC, the voter turnout was 69.3 per cent by 8:00 pm on November 20, which often causes doubts in non-transparent election process.
According to well-known Kazakhstan-based political analyst Dosym Satpaev, the problem of Tokayev and his political technologists is that they are again interested only in legalisation of the president’s staying in power by means of the formal election process.
“At the same time, they again ignore the long-term legitimisation of the power, which can be measured by the same rate of protesting moods. And it can be decreased if they have the courage to admit that such moods do exist. But if further distortion of data flows (when the retinue will again make the king) creates information vacuum around the key decision-making centre, then seven years chosen by the second president will be like a mine area,” Satpaev wrote on social media on November 21.
According to him, the key question is not whether Tokayev can last until the end of his term, but what he can create during this time, and what political heritage he will leave to the third president.
The liberal part of the society has long been demanding democratic transformations.
“Kazakhstan has long needed the political system with new political rules, new political players and new political institutions based on the checks and balances system. It will let liquidate the vicious system, when everything depends on one person, and those close to him. Creation of the strong, independent and uncorrupted judicial and legal system would be the first step in this direction,” Satpaev said.
According to the political analyst, if everything remains the same as under Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan will have January events repeated. “Without strong political institutions, after Tokayev leaves, intra-elite groups would again fight for the power. And those people whom he involved as part of the new retinue would again cling to power, mainly because of fear that the new president would start cleanup under the slogan “Zhana.Zhana.Qazaqstan” (from Kazakh “New.New.Kazakhstan”),” Satpaev said.
According to politician Ualikhan Kaisarov, it would be difficult for Tokayev to leave office, even after seven years, in the situation when there is no efficient system of checks and balances.
“I doubt he will leave office quietly after seven years. There will always be bootlickers who would start telling him to complete the work he started as no one else could do it, and he has no alternative. They would tell him to reset the term, etc. This is what we saw in neighbouring Russia and in our Kazakhstan. I am far from supposing that Tokayev would leave now or in seven years,” Kaisarov said.
The CEC has not yet announced voting results. But in the morning of November 21, Tokayev already received congratulations on his victory from his colleagues in Central Asia – president of Tajikistan Emomali Rakhmon, president of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and president of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Zhaparov.