Kazakhstan has returned the option to nationals to be elected in single-member districts. 15 candidates, on average, will compete for one mandate. This high competition can “disperse” the votes, according to experts. They also expect the disappointment of voters after the election and do not exclude the possibility of new protests.
Since February 18, 2023, Kazakhstan launched the election campaign. Early elections to the lower house of parliament (Mazhilis) and local authorities (maslikhat) are to take place on March 19. The main introduction this year is the return of the combined electoral system. 69 deputies of mazhilis will be elected by party lists, and 29 – by majority constituencies.
Demand for changes
Just two years ago, citizens were passive about the elections to Mazhilis and maslikhat. In 2021, the official voting turnout could hardly exceed 63 per cent, whereas the independent think tank “Sange” showed 44.7 per cent. But it did not mean the absence of demand for political participation – the people were not satisfied with the existing system and rules of the game, which were to change in January 2022 during mass protests. In March 2022, Tokayev offered a plan of political reforms.
Political analyst Farkhad Kasenov said that after the January events the authorities could follow the course of drastic reforms, including political lustration and dissolution of the party of power – “Nur Otan”, but decided to perform “micro changes.”
“During the January events, people not only demolished the Nazarbayev’s monument and knocked down street signs with Nazarbayev’s name on them, but also destroyed offices of “Nur Otan” party. Isn’t it the indicator of the unpopularity and toxicity of the party?” Kasenov said.
As a result, “Nur Otan” was renamed into “Amanat”, the president and regional akims left the party, and the threshold for parties to enter parliament was reduced from seven to five per cent. The “against all” graph appeared in ballot papers. Women, young people and persons with disabilities were allocated a 30-percent quota in mazhilis.
“The most interesting thing is that percentage between party lists and majority constituencies during elections was made as 70 to 30. 70 for parties and 30 for single-member constituencies. These amendments, which are called minor by many people, are offered as major by the authorities. Will they lead to more quality changes or will they remain just an attempt to reduce tensions after January?” Farkhad Kasenov said.
New unknown parties
The party field in Kazakhstan is not very diverse. The long-lasting monopoly of “Nur Otan” in the parliament, partially divided between the two parties of “Akzhol” and “People’s Party of Kazakhstan”, which are not quite opposition ones, has reduced public interest to the party system significantly. This year, just before the elections, two new parties were allowed for registration – “Baitak”, the green party, and “Respublika”, the party of bloggers and young businessmen. Political analyst Viktor Kovtunovsky said that it was too early to speak about the real party competition, even with two new parties participating.
“I cannot judge how independent these newly registered parties are and how much their programme and position will differ from the ones of “Amanat” party. Six months ago, snap elections were known to be held, but I have not seen any signs of voter turnout both from old and new parties. They behave just the same as they used to in the time of Nursultan Nazarbayev. Therefore, I have a feeling that their activities are strictly controlled by the political bloc in Akorda (administration of the president of Kazakhstan – Editor),” said Viktor Kovtunovsky.
There will be seven parties taking part in the forthcoming elections: “Amanat”, “Respublika”, “Akzhol” (party of businessmen), “Baitak” (“green”), “Auyl” (party of agrarians), NPK (former communist party) and OSDP (social democrats).
Leaders of the initiative group to create the opposition party “Alga, Kazakhstan” have filed documents for registration of their political alliance ten times, but failed to be registered. Therefore, the organising committee have their candidates run in single-member constituencies. A famous marathon runner, civil activist and member of the initiative group “Alga, Kazakhstan”, Marat Zhylanbayev, said that he doubted the fairness of elections and vote counting, yet it is important for him to take part as a candidate to the Mazhilis to check how civil and political participation opportunities provided by the authorities work in reality.
“Why did our organising committee decide to run? To reveal (any violations of law – Editor). New parties were registered recently, and we did not even know about them. There are entrepreneurs, artists on their lists, that’s why they were registered. When I applied as a candidate in the single-member constituency, there were three more candidates there, and they were all ex-deputies. I think the authorities send their people who were not elected under party lists,” Marat Zhylanbayev said.
Opinion leaders run for election
Despite the general scepticism, which usually surrounds the voting process in Kazakhstan, the option of nominating a candidate in majority constituencies at this election has caused political hype, especially among those who had discussed politics only on social media and those who have recently been called scornfully by President Tokayev “couch experts”. Now social media are filled with the election advertising of independent candidates. Politician Ualikhan Kaisarov, who is a candidate with a lot of experience, takes part in this election. Previously, he had ran for president and parliament member several times.
“Previously, elections were held under party lists, and they were absolutely controlled by the authorities. Now, elections are based on the majority voting system, which is beyond the power’s control, and now people will be voting. Therefore, we deploy a network of independent observers, who have already demonstrated their ability to uphold their votes and legitimacy at ballot stations. No candidate will give up easily. Independent candidates have high probability of winning this election,” Kaisarov said.
However, experts do not tend to share optimistic expectations. Candidates in single-member constituencies have only 29 seats of 98 in the Mazhilis. According to the Central Election Commission, 435 candidates (15 persons per one seat) were registered by results of registration of candidates for deputies in 29 voting districts.
“The highest competition of 41 and 42 candidates per one seat is in Astana, and 37, 33, 34 candidates per one seat is in Almaty. The lowest competition of five candidates per one seat is in district No. 25 of Turkestan region. 359 independent candidates (82.53 per cent), 76 candidates (17.47 per cent) from political parties,” according to the press release of the Central Election Commission as of February 19.
Disappointment and protests
High competition for seats can pose a problem at the elections, as the law does not provide for the second round. According to political analyst Kazbek Beisebayev, votes will be dispersed among candidates, and the one with the majority of votes will win, despite the minimum support.
“In normal countries, second round of elections is provided by law, and two candidates with most votes take part in the second round. Then, the voter chooses one of them. There’s a suspicion that so many candidates and no second round are made specifically to disperse the votes between all candidates,” Beisebayev wrote on his social media page.
Competition for deputy seats in maslikhats is must lower. CEC has registered 10,288 candidates – three to four candidates run for one seat, on average.
“There has always been struggle in maslikhats for financial flows because deputies approve the budget. Competition for seats has always been behind the scene and rather tough. I don’t think now the struggle would be less tough. Experts should focus more not on Mazhilis election, but on elections to maslikhats. Unfortunately, we have not worked out polling mechanisms that can be trusted,” political analyst Farkhad Kasenov said.
The excitement about this election will surely be followed by disappointment, experts said. According to Viktor Kovtunovsky, the country has not created real conditions for catering the needs of the civil society as all restrictions created in the time of ex-elbasy (leader of nation – this was the status of Nursultan Nazarbayev until February 2023) have remained unchanged. The presidential administration still has an opportunity to manipulate both the course of election and the election results.
“I think the power is playing with fire. The need for changes, which was obvious and demonstrated by the January events, is still there. If the authorities continue to imitate competition and determine domestic and foreign policy autocratically, if they fail to establish civil society feedback mechanisms, it will ultimately lead to the explosion,” Viktor Kovtunovsky said.
Farkhad Kasenov also said about the possibility of repeated mass protests due to the unwillingness of the authorities to democratise the entire political system. According to him, if really independent and professional deputies get into the lower house of parliament, they will not have much influence.
“Our system is like an inverted pyramid, which stands on its top. The level of professionalism of both previous and current parliaments is very low. The parliament is called the notary’s office of the presidential administration. I don’t think anything will change after the election. The house could become more outstanding due to independent candidates, and we’ll have new talking heads. But amid hype party activists, it will be very hard for independent candidates to stand out by their efficient law making,” the expert said.
Main photo: atpress.kz