Central Asian governments should strengthen measures to diversify labor migration routes, participants in the regional expert meeting of the analytical platform CABAR.asia believe.
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Labor migrants from Central Asia, primarily Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, make an important contribution to the economies of their countries. Migrant remittances constitute about 30% of the financial resources of the GDP of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
These funds are a source of livelihood for many households, they help with stabilizing the exchange rate of local currencies, and in fact are a steady investment source in the economies of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and, to some extent, Uzbekistan.
For example, the government of Tajikistan recently approved an action plan for the implementation of the Concept of attracting foreign compatriots as partners in the development of the country for 2021-2025. The authorities expect to attract funds from migrants to the economy of the republic.
In April of the current year, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs demanded all illegal migrants to leave the country before June 15 or apply for a new registration.
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, the total number of illegal migrants is about 1.1 million people, and most of them from Central Asia. The government of the Russian Federation appealed to the governments of the Central Asian countries with a request to assist in the legalization of their citizens on the territory of the Russian Federation.
The experts discussed this topic in detail at an expert online meeting organized by the analytical platform CABAR.asia.
Diversification of migration routes is needed
According to Nurbyubyu Kerimova, head of the Public Council of the State Migration Service under the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic, more than 20% of the economically active population migrates, mainly young people at the age of 18-29 years. About 40% of migrants are women. The majority of migrants are residents of the southern regions, where the level of unemployment is high.
“Without remittances from labor migrants, these regions will grow even more poor”, Kerimova said.
Due to the Kyrgyz Republic’s membership in the EAEU, Kyrgyz labor migrants have some advantages in comparison with immigrants from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. However, many of them experience financial difficulties and often cannot find jobs.
Nurbyubyu Kerimova highlighted the weaknesses in the labor migration strategy, which leads to big problems in various areas. In particular, the weak migration strategy of the state, the problem of the outflow of the population from the border territories, which leads to “creeping” of borders, a shortage of qualified specialists, especially in remote regions, the situation of female migrants and re-migrants, etc.
These and other issues are poorly considered by the state, although recently they are increasing in number.
“Mass migration flows are limited only in two directions, and any changes in the economic situation and in the migration policy in the countries of destination will lead to a change in the situation in Kyrgyzstan,” Kerimova said.
Due to the pandemic, remittances to Kyrgyzstan decreased by $15 million in 2020; on average, each migrant transfers home about $3000 a year. And this money is spent on essential goods and services, at the expense of earnings abroad, workers provide their families and relatives with financial support by sending sufficient amounts of funds.
Kerimova believes that the traveling routes of labor migrants may change. Today, Kyrgyz citizens leave for work not only to Russia and Kazakhstan, but also to Western countries and far abroad.
She recommended that the government make migration policy a controlled area of political responsibility of the state to its citizens and proposed a number of measures, such as the creation of a unified authorized governmental body for managing migration, labor, employment and other issues.
“The state must predict and be ready to help its citizens – labor migrants who find themselves in a difficult life situation. June 15 is coming near, and more than 115 thousand citizens of Kyrgyzstan left on the territory of the Russian Federation, probably even more from other countries, and the state remained undecided what to do with these migrants, because the internal market is glutted”, she said.
A choice between bad and worse scenarios
The closure of borders due to the pandemic and self-isolation measures also negatively affected the situation of Tajik migrants, said an expert from Tajikistan, Umed Raimdodov, head of a department at the Governmental facility “Scientific research Institute of Labour, Migration and Employment of Population” under the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Employment of Population of the Republic of Tajikistan.
According to him, about 350 thousand employable citizens could not leave for temporary work in other states in 2020. The number of labor migrants who went from Tajikistan to Russia decreased by 77%, and to Kazakhstan by 53%.
The Scientific Research Institute of Labour, Migration and Employment of Population under the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Employment of Population of the Republic of Tajikistan conducted a study among migrant workers who did not have a chance to leave. It covered 840 returned migrants and identified such issues as psychological stress, difficulties in finding a job, deteriorating financial situation, growing bank indebtedness, etc.
The study showed that the highest unemployment rate was in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, about 70% of returned migrants could not find work, and in Khatlon Region, where about 60% of migrants could not find employment.
The Tajik expert says that in the face of reduced vacancies in Russia, Tajik labor migrants do not have much choice in the labor markets. However, at homecountry, the chances of finding a decent income are even less.
“Due to the pandemic, the Tajik labor market is in a more deplorable state. Therefore, from now on, every labor migrant will face a big choice between bad and worse scenarios for his life. Labor migrants tend not to have any financial savings that would allow them to survive during the crisis. So, they are forced to look for just any job. If now all migrants who have remained in Russia decide to return home, this will tighten the labor market and increase pressure on social services in the country”, says Raimdodov.
According to Raimdodov’s forecasts, Tajik labor migrants may be squeezed out of the Russian labor market in large cities in the near future. We can expect an increase in the shadow labor market, when foreign labor migrants compete with Russian employees, and in this case, they will be offered lower hourly wages, to which they will agree. As well as the willingness to work in difficult conditions, including life-threatening ones.
“Our government, of course, understands how the situation has developed, and is taking measures to reduce risks. To redirect the flows of labor migrants, a state institution “Tojikvneshtrud” was established under the ministry, which is working on the organized recruitment and forwarding labor migrants to Poland and Turkey since last year. And now they have an agreement with Romania”, said Raimdodov.
In addition, there are about 20 private employment agencies (PEAs) operating in the country that are engaged in the organized placement of manpower from Tajikistan to other states.
“However, the institute of migration recently revealed that many private agencies during the pandemic lost their income, went bankrupt because of closed borders, and they could not send labor migrants any longer. Participated PEAs in the survey reported that most of them are currently redirecting their work to European countries, Canada and the United States”, said Raimdodov.
Another expert from Tajikistan, former head of the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Employment of Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, Anvar Babaev, suggested that the governments of the Central Asian countries and the Russian Federation work on simplifying migration policies.
“In our countries there is a data bank on undesirable persons. These are persons who have committed serious crimes and are prohibited from entering a number of countries. At the same time, there is a list of “forbiddens”, that amounts to hundreds of thousands of people. In order to improve the demographic situation in the CIS countries, in particular, in the Russian Federation, migrants cannot be punished twice. For one violation, you need to apply sanctions, and that’s enough. No deportation and expulsion. Thus, we could keep these labor flows to Russia and at the same time encourage labor migrants so that they can participate in the development of the economy of the host and destination countries”, Babayev said.
Uzbek authorities revised their approach to migrants
According to Temur Umarov, an analyst from Uzbekistan, a consultant at the Carnegie Moscow Center, in the modern global world, migration processes are irreversible.
“The pandemic has slowed them down a bit, but overall there is little to stop them. From the point of view of the political regimes of the Central Asian countries, interrupting this migration process is inexpedient. For the current political leadership in Uzbekistan, in particular, this is even a positive effect”, says Umarov.
He recalled that the previous president, Islam Karimov, had a negative attitude on migration.
In Umarov’s words, in 2019 according to official numbers only, about a million citizens left Uzbekistan for work to Russia, and this figure was halved in 2020.
“Now these numbers are slightly recovering. The second is remittances, and they also fell by half over the pandemic year. But now Uzbekistan is demonstrating a positive trend in the redistribution of its surplus labor resources outside the Russian Federation. These figures also show how strongly Uzbekistan is tied to Russia in terms of labor migration”, Umarov said.
According to Umarov, the change of power five years ago in the country had more impact on the processes of labor migration than the pandemic.
“Since then, we have seen how the leadership of Uzbekistan has revised its approach to migrants. The rhetoric has changed, a number of steps have been taken to facilitate the departure of citizens from the country and other measures have been taken. Centers for the training of migrants inside the country were opened, where everyone could come, get all the necessary information, and negotiate some kind of contract with the host. Steps have been taken to ensure that migration flows are not interrupted. In addition, the government of Uzbekistan began to negotiate with other countries in order to diversify these flows, first of all, these are neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan, but also other countries such as South Korea, the countries of the Middle East, Japan, the European Union, Israel, etc. If five years ago it was difficult to leave legally, today they have such tools”, he said.
According to Umarov, the current pandemic crisis will not affect the structural composition of migration flows from Uzbekistan, the government will not stop encouraging labor migrants to leave for migration.
“We will see in the future a desire to vaccinate everyone who wants to leave as soon as possible and other ways to quickly restore this flow. From an economic point of view, the government is now in a more difficult position than before. Therefore, to have within its borders a large number of able-bodied people who have been left without work is quite risky for stability in general. We already see how the leadership is trying to change the situation in the country”, he said.
Three scenarios for the development of migration policy in Russia
Sergey Abashin, Russian expert, professor at the European University at St. Petersburg noted that the latest crisis showed that migration is not a linear process, which can be viewed as a constant increase in the number of migrants from Central Asian countries and a process that can solve problems of local labor markets in these countries.
“Everyone thought that surplus labor would be absorbed and accepted in unlimited quantities by the Russian labor market in Russia, where there are demographic problems. But now we see that migration in waves, now it’s in, then it’s out, as new circumstances appear”, Abashin says.
He came to the conclusion that the peak value of 4 million people from the countries of Central Asia was in 2014, except for Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which were simultaneously in Russia. Under the influence of economic crises and tightening of the rules of migration policy, this number decreased, but by the year of 2020 migration has practically recovered.
Abashin believes that the current crisis is different from the previous ones.
“It is not connected with the economy, but with the pandemic and the closure of borders. According to the latest data, as of May 2021, there were about 2.5 million foreign labor migrants from Central Asian countries in Russia. The number has decreased by about 35-40 percent in a year and a half. How does the Russian government react to this?
Now this is a contradictory and ambivalent reaction. On the one hand, we hear constant complaints about the scarcity of labor of foreign migrants, especially in the construction sector. And quite active calls and lobbying for the opening of borders so that migrants have the opportunity to return and fill the labor shortage. But there is also the opposite point of view, that migration can be brought under full control, that migrants can be replaced by Russian citizens”, says Abashin.
Sergey Abashin highlighted three possible scenarios for the further development of the situation on the Russian labor market for migrants from Central Asia.
The first scenario assumes full restoration of aviation and overland communications and recovery of migration within a year.
The second scenario involves postponing opening of the borders. This will be due to the fact that new rules and new migration solutions are being prepared, which will tighten electronic control over migrants. Another scenario to delay the return of migrants, according to Abashin, is a way to convince Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to join the EAEU.
The third scenario is the introduction of an alternative to labor visas, visa systems and some kind of moderation of migration policy. Perhaps Russia will switch to brutal control of labor migration.
“Time will show which one of these three scenarios will be developed and it will depend on many factors. From the way the economy will develop, the scale of the demographic decline in Russia and the political situation in Russia; to what extent the law enforcement agencies will be leading in Russian politics and how relations will develop, for example, with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan”, the Russian expert says.
Abashin stressed that he personally believes that now the prevailing point of view in Russia is that migration should be held back, stopped and reduced.
“Therefore, it is [naive] to think that the Russian market will be able to meet the need of surplus labor resources from Central Asia, such prospects should be treated with caution”, he said.
This publication is a part of the mentoring program of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) project “New Media and Digital Journalism Development in Central Asia” with the support of the UK Government. The content of this publication does not reflect the official views of IWPR or the UK Government.