On December 23, 2022, the president of Kazakhstan Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev surrounded by companions walked through the Almaty-based Republic Square with a gloomy face. The memorial “Tagzym” (“Bowing”) in the memory of the tragedy of January events was built in a matter of days on the square. In early 2022, the largest in the history of sovereign Kazakhstan civil protest took place in that square.
Protests that began on January 2 in the west of the country because of the rise in gas prices spread across the country and ended with clashes and shootings. 232 people died from shootings, six more people died from torture in police custody after detention. The Kazakhstanis still do not know all the truth about the event. But do they want to know?
History management
Opening of the memorial “Tagzym” had not been announced beforehand. The ceremony was held in a narrow format, with participation of the state media. Independent journalists were not allowed to attend the event. Later, the Akorda press service distributed photos and video of the ceremony. The authorities have tried to “monopolise” the narrative about January since the first days after the mass shootings as if to justify what happened and to add some patriotic rhetoric to the past events.
“The point was whether we could save our state. But due to the solidarity of our people we were able to face all the challenges and demonstrate our unshakable determination and strength. We suppressed the actions of the conspirators […]. Peaceful protests [..]turned into mass clashes and massacres. The bandits attacked the security forces, looted arms depots. Innocent citizens have died as a result of their actions,” the press service of Akorda cited Tokayev.
In the rhetoric of authorities, demands of the protesters seeking to change the political system and for social justice went into the background or were devalued. Deputies of the parliament speaking at various platforms said that since 2019, when Tokayev became the president, he made real steps towards positive changes, including the following: adoption of the law “On protests” (since 2020, Kazakhstan has had the new law “on peaceful protests,” which requires giving a notice to local executive bodies of a demonstration, protest and small protest; human rights activists call the law as incompliant with international standards – Editorial office), election of rural akims, adoption of the concept of the listening state and a warning that public servants who sabotage presidential orders would not remain in their offices.
“The reforms that were launched most likely resulted in the coup attempt (in January 2022 – Editorial office) with all the ensuing consequences,” said mazhilis deputy Aidos Sarym.
His colleague Arman Kozhakhmetov is confident that the protesters demanded to solve social issues.
“People are most concerned about earnings, affordable prices in the market, ability to support their families, and housing, and social issues always prevail,” the deputy said. “Their outcries “Shal, ket” (“Old man, go away”; this motto was often used by the opposition during protests against the first president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev – Editorial office) were caused by the allegation that all problems were related to that regime. In fact, if we all do not start to work now, the situation will not change, right?”
The authorities of Kazakhstan speak to the people of Kazakhstan about what happened in January by the mouth of Moscow. Recently Russian journalist Leonid Mlechin, who had previously published many works about successes of the authorities of Kazakhstan, presented a book “Tragic January. President Tokayev and Lessons Learned.” The author does not skimp on compliments to Tokayev for not leaving the country in January with allegedly 25 million dollars prepared for him. According to the excerpts published on the media, the beneficiary of the coup should have been allegedly Nazarbayev.
According to political analyst Dosym Satpayev, the writing by Mlechin shows that both Tokayev and Nazarbayev have failed to be emancipated and remained virtually “Soviet people.”
“It is easier to define their official standpoint in a tailor-made book to be able to refer to it as the “independent investigation.” It seems that further official versions of the January events will voice much of what was published in the book, including the role of Nazarbayev, who, according to the book author, should have returned to the presidential office after January events for three years, while Karim Masimov should have become prime minister with unlimited powers,” Satpayev wrote on social media on December 22.
Consequences of January
Despite the fact that the “power” narrative in the society prevails due to the powerful information resource of the state, not all citizens tend to trust it. Especially after unconfirmed information about 20 thousand terrorists attacking Almaty appeared. This information “allowed” Tokayev to order to law enforcement bodies to shoot to kill without warning and to send CSTO troops.
Sending CSTO troops during the January events in Kazakhstan was assessed as one of the serious threats to the national sovereignty, especially after the recent scandalous interview of Russia’s ambassador in Kazakhstan Aleksei Borodavkin. The ambassador promised to support Tokayev if he asked to help in connection with “nationalism” in Kazakhstan. The social media were filled with widespread public anger. According to the foreign ministry of Kazakhstan, they talked to Borodavkin and accepted apologies from the Russian party.
Tokayev has not still given the interview about the January events to any independent media, and his first interview to the anchor of the state broadcaster on January 29 was announced with jokes. The authorities provide doses of information about the investigation. It prevents the society from understanding what really happened. Human Rights Watch called the investigation ineffective.
After the January events, according to political analyst Shalkar Nurseitov, Tokayev began to exercise full political power.
The second key consequence, according to Nurseitov, was the strengthening of political repressions.
“This year, according to media reports, the number of political prisoners in Kazakhstan increased fivefold, now the list has over 125 names.”
Objectivity is required
After the January events, Tokayev announced political reforms. The country amended the Constitution: all mentions of Elbasy (a special status that is translated from the Kazakh as the leader of the nation, was assigned to Nazarbayev in 2010) were removed, but the possibility of snap elections was created, after which Tokayev became the president for seven years.
“We can expect changes in the country only if the event (January events – Editorial office) is given an objective political assessment. One year has passed, but we can see only manipulations and deception, amnesty for convicted persons was announced. Were there 20 thousand terrorists? Who were the shooters? Criminal cases are still pending. The head of the National Security Committee, Karim Masimov, was detained, but his actions were not assessed. The whole system of the National Security Committee was paralysed, but Masimov was not the only guilty person,” said politician, ex-deputy of parliament, Serikbai Alibaev.
Alibaev was among participants of the protest gathering in Pavlodar on January 5, 2022. He was detained a few days later for participation in the unauthorised protest. However, Serikbai Alibaev wants to know why the protest is called unauthorised as there was the audio amplified installed by the akimat, and the akim and police officers attended it.
“The imam and activists delivered their speeches. Some people, a couple of dozen of young men set an ultimatum to the akim: if he fails to create conditions, install yurts, they will attack the akimat, and so on. Hundreds of police officers were there, thщse 20 persons could be seized and taken away. And they (the policemen – Editorial office) simply made it to the point that they (the rally participants – Editorial office) got into the akimat with the whole group, started throwing stun grenades at civilians, one person was wounded,” Alibaev described the events.
According to him, the detainees were delivered to “Dinamo” stadium, and people in masks beat the detainees. 75-year-old Alibaev filed a complaint of violence, but they failed to find the guilty ones. According to Radio Azattyk, hundreds of detainees have reported torture and violence after the January events across the country. Many arrested ones have reported that they have been scalded by boiling water, burned with iron, tortured by Taser, severely beaten or had their teeth pulled out with pliers.
Poor on empathy
The January events have caused a strong mass trauma to the whole society of Kazakhstan, experts said. Despite the deaths of over two hundreds of fellow citizens, including two children, the Kazakhstanis seemed to pull away from what happened, few of them showed empathy with the survivors, and demanded truth about the events.
“We are poor on empathy because we are a very selfish nation, although we like to speak about our high spirituality. Our level of narcissism is very high, and the number of people with such qualities goes off scale. Montesquieu warned that people who love themselves too much cannot make a republic as a common goal, cannot create democracy. Why was Nazarbayev so popular for a long time? Because he was an enlarged copy of little nazarbayevs who have filled and still fill our society,” said sociologist Yeset Yesengarayev.
Political analyst Shalkar Nurseitov has found other causes of low empathy with the victims of the January events. According to him, the information blockade in the first days of clashes has played its role, on the one hand. State-run media were the only source of information when there was no internet in the country, and they praised Tokayev and called people to unite around him for the sake of the sustainable future. Demonization of peaceful protesters in the media, attempts to show them as naïve people who took to the streets at the call of well-trained militants and terrorists show that the authorities failed to hear the people’s demand for political participation and the rule of law. On the other hand, Kazakhstanis fear security forces who are prepared to fire on peaceful citizens, as January showed.
According to Shalkar Nurseitov, urban people in any society, mainly the middle class, must drive systemic changes. But it does not happen in Kazakhstan because the middle class gets economic benefit (winning in large-scale tenders, entry to the state-dominated markets) due to their loyalty to the political regime.
“People who should have asked uncomfortable questions to the regime keep silent and act as if nothing had happened in January. We can see this among big business owners, as well. Now they understand that their principal has changed and they have to (adapt – Editorial office) to the new one,” Shalkar Nurseitov said.
Are new protests imminent?
According to sociologist Yeset Yesengarayev, only changes in the minds of citizens can lead to the real change of the system and democratic transformations in Kazakhstan.
“All of us are to blame in what happened in January. The authorities are our people, too, and our people will fill the authorities,” Yesengarayev said.
According to the sociologist, the regime is changing now, but sociocultural characteristics do not change.
“Buddies come to power, but they don’t want to be reformists,” Yesengarayev said. “Oligarchization is typical for the opposition, too. They strive to secure their domination, to come to power based on democratic slogans, while being frustrated quasi-tycoon. The point is that our society makes this type of people, not others.”
Therefore, it is important for Kazakhstan to develop social and humanitarian knowledge, to make citizens take responsibility and develop necessary skills and qualities for democratic changes in their own districts and cities, first.
Experts do not rule out that the trauma of January events can trigger new mass protests, especially amid the increasing economic recession in the country and the absence of effective measures to tackle poverty and unemployment.
Main photo: akorda.kz