The countries of Central Asia are undergoing another stress test during the crisis in Kazakhstan. How will the events in Kazakhstan affect bilateral relations and regional cooperation? What changes, including geopolitical ones, can be expected in the region in the near future, – experts from the region discussing these and other issues specifically for CABAR.asia.
Rustam Burnashev, Professor of the Kazakh-German University (Kazakhstan):
Will bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan change?
I do not see any grounds and reasons for changes in bilateral Uzbek-Kazakh relations. Of course, there is a special interpersonal relationship between the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and the first President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. However, the key point of relations between the two states is the coincidence of interests, or at least the proximity of positions, on a number of key issues in the field of economics and ecology. This coincidence of positions is recorded in the Declaration on Allied Relations. The events in Kazakhstan do not touch upon these issues.
Does the participation of the CSTO forces in Kazakhstan say that the declaration on allied relations with Uzbekistan does not work?
“Allied relations” between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are very specific and do not include military and military-political components. Thus, the participation of Kazakhstan in the CSTO does not affect these relations. The introduction of subdivisions of the member states of this organization to Kazakhstan does not affect them either. Moreover, this is a temporary factor.
What changes can occur in the format of regional cooperation?
Regional cooperation in Central Asia is extremely weak; in fact, it is nominal.
There was no such reaction to the situation with COVID-19. Accordingly, what does not exist – cannot change. We continue to work at the bilateral level and at the level of specific projects.
Medet Tyulegenov, political scientist (Kyrgyzstan):
Will bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan change?
Relations between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have not always been smooth. And this situation, which is now developing, especially in connection with the arrest of our famous jazz musician Vikram Ruzakhunov, is also to some extent exacerbating these relations. Because not only the specific situation with this kind of people and other citizens of Kyrgyzstan, but in general the rhetoric, especially the official and official media of Kazakhstan, regarding the fact that these are some gangster groups that mainly enter from the outside, and for the most part Kyrgyzstan is mentioned in this rhetoric. This causes certain misunderstandings on our part, at least for the time being on the part of the public.
However, when the situation returns back to the so-called normal course, these events will, of course, be remembered after the fact, and this will leave a certain feeling left behind.
I think that in terms of building their own narrative about how and why this situation happened, the Kazakh authorities will continue to emphasize that the source of all these problems is something that is outside of Kazakhstan. Moreover, for the most part, perhaps to some extent, they will again point in the direction of Kyrgyzstan, which again may worsen certain aspects of relations between the two countries.
What changes can occur in the format of regional cooperation?
Here, of course, it is still difficult to say. The format of relations will most likely continue in the form of meetings of heads of state at the highest level, but it seems to me that while maintaining the usual formats of relations, the content will soon be reduced to the side of ensuring security. This agenda, which to a certain extent will be formed by Kazakhstan. The securitization of various aspects of the relationship will be the leitmotif in the course of various consultations and meetings at various levels between the countries of the region.
How do these events affect the geopolitical picture of the region?
Well, the geopolitical aspect is to some extent related to the fact that the CSTO was involved in resolving this situation, and this affects how the whole situation around Kazakhstan and around the region as a whole looks now, since such involvement of the CSTO forces was unprecedented.
This will play a certain role related to how Russia sees this situation and how it will further build relationships with the countries of the region, some of which, on the one hand, are members of this organization, while others are not members of this organization. This will also, to some extent, affect what is happening in other countries.
Suppose the same question about whether it makes sense for Uzbekistan to renew its membership in the CSTO at some point. In addition, the geopolitical issue is acquiring a problematic character in the Russian-speaking space: in any case, in social networks, it is discussed to what extent Russia’s involvement in the situation in Kazakhstan can cause an additional nationalist tide, rejection of projects with the participation of Russia – the same CSTO, the Customs Union, and so on, and how Russia will be perceived in the societies of the region. This will affect what kind of break will occur within society, inside Kazakhstan, and on a certain rhetoric of other politicians in neighboring countries. In this respect, geopolitically, a certain discourse will be built here as to where the border of the Russian world is, to what extent Eurasian integration is combined with this. Moreover, Kazakhstan and Russia were the two main centers for the formation of this geopolitical project, which was associated with the Customs Union and the CSTO. These events have caused various kinds of sentiments in public perception, which play a role in the development of what the geopolitical alignment will look like in the near future.
Farkhod Tolipov, director of the non-state scientific and educational institution “Bilim Karvoni” (Uzbekistan):
Will bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan change?
I do not think so. I admit that they should be strengthened even more. If some unexpected isolation of the two countries from each other appears, then suspicions will be confirmed that someone is trying to drive a wedge of mutual alienation between them. The fact that there have been riots in Kazakhstan, bilateral relations between the allied states should not suffer.
Does the participation of the CSTO forces in Kazakhstan say that the declaration on allied relations with Uzbekistan does not work?
The Declaration does not mention such situations. In addition, a full-fledged Treaty of Allied Relations is being developed, which will replace the Declaration. Maybe it will contain certain provisions regarding mutual assistance of states in situations of increasing threats.
What changes can occur in the format of regional cooperation?
I believe that the CA countries urgently need to convene a Consultative Meeting of the Presidents. Perhaps in Bishkek or Dushanbe. Such events have no choice but worry the neighboring countries, so they should not only communicate by phone, but also hold summits, even unscheduled ones. Pay attention, at the CSTO summit, President of Belarus A. Lukashenko warned Uzbekistan and other countries of the region in a very rude and arrogant manner that their turn might come for the same unrest as in Kazakhstan. This “warning” alone may give rise to a Consultative Meeting to discuss the current situation. A face-to-face meeting would be an important relevant message for non-regional actors. As the meeting of the Foreign Ministries of the Organization of Turkic States that took place. Why not to hold the same meeting in the CA format?
How will these events affect the prospects for regional cooperation in general?
Similar incidents have occurred in the region more than once before. Moreover, there were even interstate incidents at the borders, but they did not affect fraternal relations and regional cooperation of the Central Asian states. For these events to affect the prospects for regional cooperation, there must be some official statements or complaints about each other. We always say that common regional threats and challenges should unite countries. Therefore, I believe that the events in Kazakhstan have become another argument in favor of the further consolidation of the Central Asian countries. By the way, many experts, and ordinary people in the countries of the region are talking about this today.
Farrukh Salimov, Head of the Diplomacy and Foreign Policy Department, Tajik National University (Tajikistan):
Will the bilateral relations between Tajikistan and Kazakhstan undergo changes?
I want to state that throughout the entire period of independence of the Republic of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan occupied an important place in our foreign policy. RK is the most important trade and economic partner of the Republic of Tajikistan, the main supplier of consumer products, from grain crops to the products of the machine-building industry of this state. We are linked with Kazakhstan not only by close historical, cultural, economic, and political ties, but also by a strong spirit of alliance on almost the entire range of regional and international issues. These relations showed the absence of any sources of conflict in bilateral relations, at least the emerging issues and problems are resolved in the spirit of mutual respect and friendship. We deeply regret the events that took place in a friendly country and deeply condemn the activities of the destructive forces that led to this situation.
The following can be assumed about the impact of events in Kazakhstan on bilateral relations with our Republic:
- The positions of various countries regarding the events in Kazakhstan were different, and of course, after the situation stabilizes, the leadership of Kazakhstan will strive to pay more attention to the neighboring countries, which did not stand aside, and on which the country’s security “as it turned out” depends. It would be logical to assume that under current conditions this is an expansion and deepening of cooperation with friendly countries, including Tajikistan.
- Tajikistan and Kazakhstan will strengthen cooperation in the field of countering and combating terrorism and extremism. Within the framework of this cooperation, military-technical cooperation will be intensified, which was partially frozen last year. Cooperation between the security and intelligence services of the two countries will be built in a new way.
- The participation of the armed forces of the Republic of Tajikistan in the peacekeeping operation within the framework of the CSTO decision is perceived by the leadership of Kazakhstan in the right way, and this step will also imply the strengthening of economic cooperation between the countries in the form of preferences, humanitarian aid and the intensification of the activities of joint economic entities on the territory of the Republic of Tajikistan.
The events in Kazakhstan have shown that the socio-economic problems in the Central Asian states are almost of a similar nature, despite the level of economic development, political maturity of society, and so on. The unresolved nature of these problems is a direct path to open action by the masses, in whatever form it may be. Not a single state in the region can stand alone against modern extremist ideology (Salafis, Tablighi Jamaat, etc.) and radicalism. After the events in Transcaucasia, the CSTO was perceived as an ephemeral “bloc” incapable of fulfilling its statutory goals. However, a quick response to the appeal of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the operational formation of a group of peacekeeping forces, their transfer and deployment in Kazakhstan, showed that the organization is capable of fulfilling the tasks assigned to it.
What changes can occur in the format of regional cooperation?
In the field of regional security, the policy of converging positions on threats emanating from neighboring regions will continue, and work will be accelerated to conclude treaties in the field of bilateral military and military-technical cooperation, coordination of anti-terrorist and anti-extremist activities.
During the CSTO meeting, the parties basically expressed their views on the further development of the situation in the region. Proposals were made to intensify the anti-terrorist and information activities of the participants. Probably the most important one was the proposal to develop a single list of terrorist organizations and movements.
How do these events affect the geopolitical picture of the region?
Of course, there are great fears that the events in Kazakhstan and the use of the CSTO as a mechanism for resolving the situation will be a good reason to increase pressure on the opposition, freedom of religion of the population, fight against unwanted political opponents, etc. in the states of the region. But we hope that the political leaders of the countries will consider this experience and direct their efforts towards creation, namely, accelerating reforms aimed at improving the socio-economic situation of the population, solving the problems that societies area facing, ensuring the economic growth of their countries and much more.
Rustam Mukhamedov, independent researcher (Turkmenistan):
Will bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan change?
As in other Central Asian states, the Turkmen authorities closely followed the events in Kazakhstan, initially without commenting on the protests. Only on January 6, when the situation got out of control, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it expressed concern and called on to resolve all issues in the constitutional and legal field and in accordance with international norms and rules, followed by a letter from President G. Berdymukhamedov with condolences to President Tokayev in connection with the victims.
In this regard, I do not think that the events in Kazakhstan will have a negative impact on bilateral relations between the two states, although priorities may shift towards expanding cooperation not only in the economy, but also in the security sphere. In October 2021, during the visit of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Ashgabat, the parties signed a number of documents on strategic partnership, but mainly they related to trade and economic cooperation in general.
What changes can occur in the format of regional cooperation?
In addition, in my opinion, the events in Kazakhstan will have a much greater impact on the internal political situation and the development of the security situation in Turkmenistan. President G. Berdimuhamedov has already convened an unscheduled plenary session of the Khalk Maslakhaty (the upper chamber of the country’s national parliament, which he personally heads), whose members may include other top statesmen. Some independent observers already believe that during the session the president will announce an early presidential election later this year to hand over the post to his son Serdar and that the latter’s recent visits to neighboring states (Iran and the forthcoming one to Uzbekistan) could be seen as a representation of him in a new capacity. Although at the moment such statements seem rather speculative, given that that such statements have not materialized in the past, they cannot be completely ruled out, especially given the fact that there is justification for these actions. Such a step at an early stage would have kept G. Berdymukhamedov in an authoritative position, having enough time to spend and help Serdar “get used to” his new role, with reliable support.
If this is the case, it will be interesting to observe whether and how the status of the State Security Council of the country will change and who will preside over it. In a closed authoritarian political environment such as Turkmenistan, where regime stability rests on a well-functioning security apparatus, it may be too risky for G. Berdymukhamedov to delegate such an important leadership position to his still inexperienced son, especially given the recent volatile events in the region. Therefore, I consider it more than possible that the regime can initiate changes in the country’s security sphere, keeping in mind the lessons learned from the experience of Kazakhstan.
How do these events affect the geopolitical picture of the region?
It can be argued that with regard to Turkmenistan, the current situation can be used by external forces, namely Russia and China, to expand their influence in the security sphere in the country. The current situation has undoubtedly alarmed the ruling regime in Ashgabat and given that the situation on the Turkmen Afghan border remains turbulent (sometimes even violent), like the general alarming situation in neighboring Afghanistan, the rhetoric of the “terrorist threat” can be used by Russia to call on the Turkmen authorities to develop a closer security partnership, whatever form it may take (formal or informal).