According to the analysts, the bilateral relations are best strengthened not by declarative statements, but by certain and mutually beneficial projects in various areas.
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Having arrived, the President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with the President Emomali Rahmon. The press services of both Presidents did not disclose the details of the conversation, only saying that they discussed the “wide range of the Uzbek-Tajik strategic partnership”, as well as some regional problems.
According to the President Mirziyoyev, “today, the Uzbek-Tajik relations have reached an unprecedented high level”.
“All the decisions we made are being implemented, and recently, a lot has changed in bilateral relations. The statistics speaks for itself,” the press service quotes the President of Uzbekistan.
According to the data of the Uzbek side, in 2017, the trade turnover was only $70 million, but in 2020, this figure reached $500 million for the first time.
“We have been preparing for this visit very seriously. The Regional Forum was successful: certain projects and agreements for more than $1 billion were signed,” Mirziyoyev said.
The President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon said that Uzbekistan is “strategic partner and reliable neighbour”.
He highlighted that the number of joint ventures has increased by 8 times, and currently, exceeds 200. For example, a joint venture for the production of consumer electronics “Artel Avesto Electronics” is successfully operating in Dushanbe. More than 30 such projects were developed before the visit.
President Rahmon stressed that even in the challenging conditions of last year, the volumes of cargo transportation and transit were growing. In addition, according to him, the countries were among the first to resume the flights between the capitals.
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev invited his Tajik counterpart to visit Uzbekistan at any time.
During the following negotiations, 36 documents were signed, mostly of a declarative nature.
The most important of them were the amendments to the agreement on mutual travel of citizens of March 9, 2018. Previously, some media reported that these amendments could simplify the travelling procedures for citizens. Other important document was an agreement on the creation of a joint stock company and conducting a technical and economic feasibility study for the construction and operation of two hydroelectric power plants in Zarafshon river basin.
“We are planning the joint construction of two hydroelectric power plants on Zarafshon River with an approximate capacity of 320 megawatts, which Shavkat Miromonovich and I agreed on in Tashkent two years ago,” President Emomali Rahmon said.
After the negotiations, the official opening ceremony of social facilities constructed by the local administrations of Samarkand region of Uzbekistan and Khatlon region of Tajikistan took place.
Both Presidents pressed a symbolic launch button and opened a new school for 1,400 students in Urgut district of Samarkand region of Uzbekistan and a Healthcare Complex titled “Friendship of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan” for 200 patients in Qubodiyon district of Khatlon region of Tajikistan.
Does the Honeymoon Period Continue?
During the previous visit of the President of Uzbekistan to Dushanbe in March 2018, an agreement on the demarcation of certain sections of the state border was signed. Then, many considered this agreement as a breakthrough.
However, this time, the parties did not reach new agreements on the border. The joint statement of the two Presidents speaks only of the necessity to “continue constructive negotiation process on the demarcation of the state border”.
Nevertheless, the experts on both sides of the border assessed the results of the visit positively.
A participant of the CABAR.asia School of Analytics, political scientist from Uzbekistan Yuri Sarukhanyan believes that statements of the two Presidents show that “the honeymoon period for Uzbekistan and Tajikistan continues”.
“On the one hand, this is very good for countries that kept a hostile silence for many years. On the other hand, the protracted honeymoon period may also indicate that the countries are still at the initial stage of transition from the declarative to detailed cooperation,” Sarukhanyan wrote in his Telegram channel.
In his opinion, the joint statement and the press statements, as usual, were filled with declarations of intent in all areas of cooperation, and did not contain details.
“For example, Rogun issue: even if it was on the agenda of negotiations, it was never reported for the general public. It should be noted that the high-level discussions of Rogun issue were avoided since the restart of the relations. Instead, there are assurances of commitment to the joint implementation of hydropower projects in Tajikistan, and the announcement of plans to construct two hydroelectric power plants in Zarafshon,” Sarukhanyan continues.
Tashkent and Dushanbe confirmed their interest in continuing cooperation in a regional format and holding consultative meetings.
“Strengthening the mechanisms of the Central Asian cooperation was one of the topics of bilateral negotiations between the countries of the region. It gives a small chance that allows us to hope that regionalism will recover from coma,” Sarukhanyan believes.
He added that personal relations of the leaders of the two countries are important in establishing cooperation between the countries.
Tajik political scientist Abdumalik Kadirov believes that this visit was a continuation of the previous one, “but with a more practical agenda”.
“The previous visit of President Mirziyoyev was ‘epochal’, that is, marking the end of the Karimov period, characterised by mistrust and hostility towards all neighbouring countries, and the beginning of a new period – the period of Mirziyoyev, aimed at building trust and creating connections between Uzbeks and other Central Asian peoples,” Kadirov told CABAR.asia.
The agenda of this visit had more economic components than political.
“The main focus, nevertheless, was placed on the development of business relations, on investing in each other’s economy. Now, the Tajik entrepreneurs are investing much less in the economy of our neighbours than their counterparts in our economy, but, as they say, the first step is the hardest. Uzbek capital, not the state capital, but the business capital, is entering our economy,” Kadirov said.
Speaking about the construction of the Rogun HPP, Kadirov said that this project had turned from an economic to a political one.
“As for President Mirziyoyev and his thoughts about Rogun, we cannot say, of course, that it does not bother him at all. Being an insightful and pragmatic politician, Mirziyoyev is trying and will try to do everything possible so that there is no need to use Rogun as an instrument of political pressure on his country. The most important thing here is trust in each other. It seems that he builds the foundation of this trust thoroughly. The construction of two joint hydropower plants on the Zarafshon River is a gesture indicating that Uzbekistan understands our needs and is ready to assist in solving them,” Kadirov said.
He found it difficult to answer the question about the remaining problematic issues in the relations between the two countries.
“It seems that all the problems that emerged under Karimov are slowly finding their solution, especially when it comes to interstate relations. Of course, some minor questions remain, it is impossible to cooperate without them. However, if the neighbouring country does not deviate from the chosen strategy, all these issues will gradually find their solutions,” says Kadirov.
This article was prepared as part of the Giving Voice, Driving Change – from the Borderland to the Steppes Project implemented with the financial support of the Foreign Ministry of Norway. The opinions expressed in the article do not reflect the position of the editorial or donor.