“For the national culture and language, such a mass migration of Russians may be a threat of re-Russification and further strengthening of Russia’s position in the region. Given the difficult historical past of countries that, through the fault of the Soviet government and imperial Russia, experienced famine, genocide, and repressions of the best citizens of the country, some of the indigenous people of Central Asia will be dissatisfied with the arrival of Russians,” Kanat Nogoibaev, an analyst from Kyrgyzstan, notes in an article, written specifically for CABAR.asia.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, thousands of Russians left their cities and villages, fearing the announcement of mobilization or as a sign of disagreement with the authorities. According to rosstat, more than 419,000 Russians left the country in the first half of the year alone.
This summer, after a short success at the front line, Russian troops surrendered a number of previously captured territories, and the public started a serious discussion regarding the possibility of mobilizing the population to strengthen the army. Already on September 21, President Putin announced the beginning of a partial mobilization. There has been a sharp jump in prices for air tickets from Russian cities to neighboring countries, and kilometer -long queues of men of military age have formed at the borders with Armenia, Kazakhstan and Georgia. The main flow this time fell on the countries of Central Asia.
How many citizens of Russian Federation are already in Central Asia?
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kazakhstan, as of October 4, 2022, more than 200,000 Russian citizens entered the country from Russia. However, it is worth noting that 147 thousand Russians left Kazakhstan in a short time after their arrival and use it as a transit country to move to other countries like Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. At a meeting with the public, President Tokayev mentioned that the issue of arriving Russian citizens would be raised at a meeting with the Russian side and asked to show solidarity and humanity to the visitors.
The Ministry of Digital Development of Kyrgyzstan announced the registration of 20,000 Russian citizens in the last two weeks, but this figure is much higher, since there is a visa-free regime between the countries. Other countries have not yet published data on arrivals. The society was divided in its attitude towards visiting Russians. Some show compassion and want to show the hospitality of the eastern soul, while others recall the recent colonial past and the negative attitude of Russians themselves towards migrants from Central Asia, therefore they are wary of the influx of Russians. This article attempts to analyze the impact of mobilization in Russia on each of the Central Asian countries.
Kazakhstan
Among all the countries of Central Asia, due to the proximity of the borders, the main flow was taken over by Kazakhstan. The country has more than 50 border points with Russia. In the northern cities of the country, volunteers meet visitors with food and helped with finding housing. Large queues formed at the public service centers to receive registration. The price of air tickets for the next dates from Russia to Kazakhstan has risen in price by 4-5 times, so the cost varies from 600 to 1200 US dollars. Sometimes the price of a ticket from Moscow to Astana could reach the cost of a car.
In addition, according to the Ostrovok.ru online hotel booking service, the number of searches for hotels in Kazakhstan increased by 8 times compared to previous periods. Many note the lack of hotel beds and rising prices for rental housing. In Almaty, the cost of rental housing has risen from 600 USD to 1,200 USD per month. Some landlords are willing to evict their tenants for short-term gain. Ordinary students suffer the most, as this comes against the backdrop of the start of the academic year and traditional housing shortages. In this vein, discussions began in society about the role of the state and the need for intervention to solve the housing problem. However, the Minister of Finance of Kazakhstan has already stated that the government will not interfere and setting rental prices is a personal right of a citizen.
At the same time, the influx of Russians causes demand for food products and services, especially in border cities. Hotels and cafes receive additional income, everyone who serves arrivals wins and receive increased income in return. In addition, the arrival of specialists creates a new competitive market. The Prime Minister of Kazakhstan has already stated about the interest of 250 companies from Russia to relocate their business. To this end, the government is developing a number of measures to support and give preferences to foreign investors. The global companies Skoda, GE Healthcare, Philips have already agreed to move their offices and specialists to large cities, and this is important for new tax revenues to the country’s budget and the creation of new jobs. Commonly, IT specialists and people working remotely for foreign companies are seen among the visitors. They do not take jobs from locals and contribute to the economy through high purchasing power.
However, there are active discussions in society about the attitude towards the newly arrived Russians and the role of Russia in the history of Kazakhstan. If for some people it is allied and friendly relations, then for another part of the citizens it is the colonial policy of imperial Russia, sharp attacks by State Duma deputies with claims on the territory of Kazakhstan and a threat to national identity. For example, recently the responsibility of the Soviet government for the famine in the 30s of the 20th century in Kazakhstan, when from 1 to 3 million people died, has been actively discussed. Such historical events influence the attitude towards Russians, especially among young people, for whom the repressed members of the Alash Orda are national heroes.
The status of the Russian language has more than once been the cause of high-profile scandals involving public figures in Kazakhstan. For example, “ Language Patrols ” by Kuat Akhmetov caused a flurry of criticism from Russian officials. The country’s leadership is gradually distancing itself from the Russian language and has already approved such amendments as the abolition of the mandatory use of the Russian language in advertising or the abolition of the study of three languages for first-graders, including Russian. Against the backdrop of what is happening, the arrival of Russians and the sharp rise in prices for food and housing are becoming an aid to the growth of xenophobia in society. Below is a table of the ethnic composition of Russians in the 90s and at the moment. Most likely, the quantitative composition of Russians can increase significantly in a few months.
Kyrgyzstan
According to the Ministry of Digital Development, 184,000 Russians have arrived in the country since the beginning of the year. Moreover, additional flights appeared between the countries from Russian cities to Bishkek, Osh and Tamchy. Hotels and cafes have already felt the influx of foreigners. For example, in the southern part of the country, Osh, there are no free rooms in hotels, and on the coast of Lake Issyk-Kul, the season has been extended and guests continue to stay, despite the bad weather. For a small country, such an influx of Russians is an important contribution to the country’s economy. By tradition, autumn is characterized by a decline in tourist flow. However, now business owners can earn additional income.
The country is also favorable from a legislative point of view. Most recently, the president signed a decree on the creative industries park, which will allow entrepreneurs from Russia to become residents of the park and conduct business in Kyrgyzstan with a simplified tax regime. In March of this year, more than 50 companies and entrepreneurs have already registered in Kyrgyzstan and started paying taxes. The arrival of specialists has a positive effect on the field of innovation and can create additional opportunities for local specialists to enter the foreign market. For example, Apple announced that it had relocated some Russian specialists to Kyrgyzstan.
However, as in Kazakhstan, the influx of Russians caused an increase in housing prices in Bishkek. According to experts, the cost of rent has doubled and the average cost only for the first days increased by 135 US dollars. Residents declare about eviction by landlords and a sharp increase in rent in pursuit of profit from the Russians. Real estate is also becoming more expensive and causing a new surge in prices throughout the market. Although the majority of Russians are likely to leave the country in search of better living conditions and higher wages, this does not guarantee permanently high prices for landlords. In the case of the placement of Russians for a long time in the country, the burden will also be on public infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, public transport. Considering the demographics of Kyrgyzstan and the weak work of the government in this regard, this will cause additional demand and higher prices for services.
Migrants from Kyrgyzstan in Russia may feel the strongest consequences of mobilization. Recently, the mayor of Moscow opened a military registration and enlistment office on the basis of the Sakharovo migration center, where foreigners are offered participation in hostilities in Ukraine for a year in exchange for Russian citizenship. It should not be ruled out that there will be pressure on migrants from the side of Federal Migration Service of the Russian Federation. In addition, many Kyrgyzstanis are recruited by private military companies like Wagner, offering good wages and social benefits. For ordinary migrants, these offers may seem like a good opportunity and a chance to earn money, although no one gives any guarantees. The Embassy of Kyrgyzstan in Russia has already urged citizens not to participate in hostilities and to reach out in case of recruitment.
Discussions about the role of Russia in the history of the country are also actively taking place in Kyrgyzstan. Many compare current events to the exodus of the Kyrgyz people after the uprising against the announced mobilization of Tsarist Russia in 1916. This event is called “Urkun”, that is, the exodus. At that time, more than 250 thousand people were forced to escape to China, fleeing from the punitive detachments of the Cossacks. Part of society is skeptical about the arrival of Russians and sees this as a threat to national identity. Russian is the official language in the country, and the issue of popularizing the state language is often raised in society. Although the share of Russians has declined since the 1990s, as can be seen in the graph, residents of the northern regions of Kyrgyzstan still predominantly speak Russian.
Tajikistan
Despite its remoteness from Russia, Tajikistan has also become a place of migration for Russians. Tickets in the direction of Moscow-Dushanbe rose from 150 to 2000 US dollars. Rooms in hotels are booked for the coming weeks, and an unusually large number of Russians appeared on the streets. The country’s leadership did not react to what was happening, although the arrival of foreigners also caused an increase in rental housing, as in other countries of Central Asia. The society welcomes visitors with hospitality, and the “Relocation to Tajikistan” help chat has already gathered more than 5 thousand subscribers, which provides up-to-date information for Russians.
At the same time, the mobilization concerns the citizens of Tajikistan directly, since dual citizenship with Russia is officially allowed in the country. Millions of Tajikistanis who work in the Russian Federation may be under the threat of conscription. Many military professionals from Tajikistan with Russian citizenship take part in the fighting. Over the past five years alone, the number of Tajikistanis who have received Russian citizenship has amounted to more than 200,000 people. Tajikistanis are the second in obtaining citizenship after Ukrainians, and this figure says a lot. After the mobilization was announced, hundreds of Tajikistanis living in Russian cities declared on agendas and demands to appear at the military registration and enlistment office. Given the difficulty of buying tickets back home, many of them have nowhere to run from the war. As in the case of Kyrgyzstan, migrants are the most vulnerable and can be recruited by private military companies or contracted in exchange for citizenship. The Embassy of Tajikistan has already warned about criminal liability for participation in hostilities in the territory of another country.
It is worth noting the proposal of a member of the State Duma Human Rights Council on compulsory military service for new Russian citizens from Central Asia. In case of refusal, it is proposed to deprive citizenship not only of the conscript, but of his entire family. Such bills are just the same aimed at migrants who have recently received Russian citizenship.
Uzbekistan
The border service of the country has not publish reliable data on the number of Russians who arrived. However, as in other countries of Central Asia, there is an influx of Russian citizens and an increased demand for housing. Already in March of this year, almost 2,000 Russians from the IT sector moved to Tashkent, which affected the housing market.
As in other countries, Russians bring with them increased demand and additional income for the locals. Against the backdrop of Uzbekistan’s openness of the economy, new investments can be an excellent opportunity for the country. It is worth noting the special attention to the sector of innovative technologies, where specialists of this kind are needed. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan has already announced the refusal to deport those Russian citizens who do not violate the law, and thus gave hope to the new arrivals that they would not be taken to the military registration and enlistment office. In addition, the arrival of specialists who hastily left the country in the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and their involvement in hospitals or schools is a big plus for the country’s economy.
The mobilization is more likely to hit Uzbek migrants, whose numbers dramatically outnumber other countries. The General Prosecutor’s Office of Uzbekistan has already called on compatriots not to enter into military conflicts on the territory of another state. The Spiritual Administration of the country’s Muslims even issued a fatwa on the impossibility of fighting for the interests of other countries, calling participation in this a sin.
There is an acute question about the perception of the influx of Russians by the inhabitants of Uzbekistan because the memory of the repressions of the Soviet authorities against the country’s public figures in the 30s of the last century is still fresh. Especially against the background of the statement of the President of Uzbekistan on the recognition of the Basmachi as fighters for national independence. Such a message already says a lot about the policy of a country that adheres to a multi-vector foreign policy and will be more careful about both Russia and Russians. There are not so many ethnic Russians in Uzbekistan after the 90s, according to the State Statistics Committee, the number of Russians as of January 1, 2021, amounted to 720.3 thousand people, which is 1 million less than in 1989.
What threats does mobilization pose for the entire region?
Mobilization in Russia has already provoked the condemnation of the world community. New sanctions may hit the country’s economy once again, which means it will affect the Russian budget, respectively, the income of migrants will gradually decrease, which will have an impact on the decline in foreign remittances. Perhaps some will want to return and there is a risk of domestic political instability due to the influx of migrants, as was the case during the pandemic years.
Rising prices for housing and food, as well as cultural differences, can become a reason for the growth of xenophobia among the population towards Russians. Such sentiments can easily be picked up by nationalist parties and thereby intensify the polarization of society. The war in Ukraine has already become an occasion for many to think about territorial integrity and national identity. The presence of the Russian-speaking population on the borders with Russia causes concern and fear of a repeat of the scenario with Crimea.
None of the countries of Central Asia conducts a background check and a thorough study of the profile of the arrivals, although they may turn out to be non-staff employees of law enforcement agencies. Something similar has already happened in Ukraine, when such agents were introduced into the country to carry out subversive actions. It is essential to recall that the first influx in February was distinguished by its principled approach to the issue of war, unlike the September one. Most visitors may support Russia’s actions but disagree with the mobilization. These sentiments influence the Kazakhstanis and their attitude towards the war in general. For example, Finland has already closed the borders of its country and is not ready to accept Russians.
For the national culture and language, such a mass migration of Russians may be a threat of re-Russification and further strengthening of Russia’s position in the region. Considering the difficult historical past of countries that, through the fault of the Soviet government and imperial Russia, experienced famine, genocide, and repression of the best citizens of the country, some of the indigenous people of Central Asia will be dissatisfied with the arrival of Russians. Without proper control, the influx of Russians could become a new challenge for sovereign states. This is especially true in countries such as Kyrgyzstan, where high levels of corruption can allow a foreigner to acquire citizenship in a short time. Back in the days, the Baltic countries introduced requirements for the need to know the language and history in order to obtain citizenship, but the Russian-speaking population is in no hurry to naturalize.
What can the states of Central Asia do?
Countries should not ignore the migration process and need to respond to what is happening. The real estate market is free, and the state cannot interfere in these processes, however, it is possible to introduce the process of renting real estate into the legal channel with the conclusion of contracts that will insure both tenants and landlords. In addition, the state should invest in the construction of social housing and hostels for students. At the moment, this is the most vulnerable part of the population, and given the growing demographics, this issue should be addressed in advance.
The process of issuing a residence permit and other documents must be accompanied by a thorough check of the citizen. When issuing citizenship, it is worth taking the experience of the Baltic countries or issuing it according to the level of contribution of a foreign citizen to the local economy.
Countries should pay attention to the relocation of specialists from international companies through the creation of favorable investment conditions. Such measures can help our countries build new industries and increase budget revenues.
Economic diversification and the search for new partners should be a key priority for our countries. Dependence on the Russian economy affects the incomes of the population. Given that our migrants may face the problem of unemployment, it is necessary to create new jobs or conclude contracts with other countries for the free movement of labor. An important role is played by education and training in new professions for the competitiveness of our citizens. These are long-term measures that need to be taken right now, otherwise our countries will face a crisis due to sanctions.
Dealing with migrants and the safety of our citizens should be a priority for Central Asian governments. The participation of migrants in hostilities on the territory of another country can become a threat to the security and neutrality of our countries. It is necessary to facilitate the procedure for returning citizenship to those who have received citizenship of the Russian Federation, as the new bills of the State Duma force them to risk their lives for the sake of other people’s interests.
The status of the language and national identity will constantly become the subject of public controversy, so it is worth paying attention to building a cultural dialogue and reducing the level of tension and xenophobia in society. In this regard, countries should not change their principles of sovereignty and should strive to maintain national culture. Any excessive loyalty to Russia and the Russian language can be perceived ambiguously by society and will only strengthen the nationalist agenda.
Mobilization in Russia will greatly change the way of life of the inhabitants of Central Asia. The correct and balanced approach of our countries can help win out of this situation and occupy their niche, so the leadership should not ignore this process and need to guide it and see opportunities in this. Otherwise, we risk getting further problems and risks.
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