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Kanat Nogoybayev
17.01.2022
Analyst (Kyrgyzstan), member of the School of analytics of CABAR.asia mentorship program
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Echo of Events in Kazakhstan for the Countries of Central Asia

“Events in Kazakhstan made it clear to the countries of Central Asia that a peaceful transfer of power in an authoritarian state is impossible and granting of freedoms is always dangerous for the ruling regime,” notes Kanat Nogoibaev, an analyst from Kyrgyzstan, a graduate of the CABAR.asia School of Analytics-2021, in his article.

The beginning of 2022 was marked by mass protests and unrest in Kazakhstan, which was considered as the economic leader of the region with a stable political system. However, the unrest in the country was a surprise to many and had an impact not only on the people of Kazakhstan, but also on the entire region of Central Asia.

On January 2, 2022, peaceful protests of workers began in the west of Kazakhstan demanding lower prices for liquefied petroleum gas. At the beginning of the year, fuel prices rose by almost 2 times from the initial price, which turned out to be the last impetus for mass protests. Other cities of Kazakhstan began to come out in support. Despite the resignation of the government and assurances of price cuts, the turning point occurred during the dispersal of a rally in Almaty, which escalated into riots with the use of forces from both sides. The city has turned into a theater of military operations, with the use of military equipment, weapons, freebooting and robbery.

At the moment, the situation has stabilized and the CSTO military commitment, which arrived to resolve the situation and protect strategic facilities, is leaving the country. The President presented the new composition of the government and proposed a plan of measures to regulate the socio-economic life of the population.

Reaction of countries and world markets

All countries unanimously expressed their concern about what is happening in Kazakhstan. The CSTO countries responded to the request of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev about the introduction of a military peacekeeping contingent and sent their soldiers to guard strategic facilities. Uzbekistan called the situation an internal problem of Kazakhstan and supported the country’s desire to ensure stability. The protests in Kazakhstan stirred up both civil society and opposition in neighboring countries, who condemned the use of force by the authorities and urged not to use weapons against the protesters.

The events also had an impact on the world market for oil prices amid supply concerns. March futures for Brent crude oil showed growth. It should be noted that the largest oil company in Kazakhstan Tengizchevroil and the main transport routes are concentrated in the west of Kazakhstan.

The events in Kazakhstan had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market as well. Kazakhstan has recently been in the top three in cryptocurrency mining and the shutdown of the Internet in the country during the state of emergency caused the collapse of the currency. As a result, the question arose about the viability of mining farms’ being in Kazakhstan due to the unstable situation.

Kazakhstan’s major banks, Kaspi Bank and Halyk Bank, which have shares on the London Stock Exchange, also lost value the morning after the riots. Investments of large foreign companies are concentrated in the country, and the situation had no choice but affect the price quotation and positions of their business. For many of them, Kazakhstan has always been an example of stability and investment attractiveness. For example, Kazatomprom’s shares in uranium mining fell by more than 8%.

However, the events also had a direct impact on the Central Asian region. All countries, except Turkmenistan, are included in the “Agreement on the CIS Free Trade Zone” of 2011 and do not have customs duties. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are members of the EAEU and have a common customs space. If we talk about the foreign trade turnover of Kazakhstan, then it actively trades with Western countries, Russia and China, and the share of trade with the countries of Central Asia is small (about 5.5%), but for its neighbors this figure is just the same significant. Kazakhstan is an important trading partner for each state, in comparison with other Central Asian countries.

It is worth noting that the volume of trade of countries is much higher if not to consider the export of raw materials of countries to Europe. Basic foodstuffs are traded between the countries of the region. The bulk of cargo transportation passes through Kazakhstan from Russia and China. Logistic routes have a direct impact on the availability of goods for countries such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Kazakhstan is the main transport artery for them, which directly bears economic risks and interdependence for the countries of the region.

Events in the long term may also have an impact on the political system of neighboring countries. All Central Asian countries, with the exception of Kyrgyzstan, have a similar political structure with Kazakhstan and similar risks. Freedom of speech and the rights of citizens may be under threat after the events in Kazakhstan.

Kyrgyzstan

The closest neighbor of Kazakhstan is Kyrgyzstan. A country that has experienced 3 revolutions and is usually an example of instability and political protests. The authorities of Kyrgyzstan were reserved in their position on what was happening, but the citizens of the country did not hide their admiration and support for the protests in Kazakhstan. Many of them spoke at a rally in Bishkek against the introduction of CSTO troops into Kazakhstan, citing this as an internal affair of the country, but after two votes, the parliament agreed to send soldiers. At a parliamentary meeting, the head of the State Committee for National Security emphasized the importance of sending troops to avoid an increase in prices for flour and other products, in case of continued instability in Kazakhstan.

If we talk about the foreign trade turnover of the two countries, then the head of the State Committee for National Security is right, Kyrgyzstan is highly dependent on the supply of most products from Kazakhstan and Russia. More than 15% of the trade turnover falls on Kazakhstan, and the share of imports prevails significantly.

Only in the recent period , Kyrgyzstan's imports consisted mainly of oil products, cereals, fruits, and flour products.

After the events in Kazakhstan, the antimonopoly body was forced to gather all the main market players and warn of liability for price increases. A number of stores have undergone unscheduled inspections, and the owners note an increased activity of the population in the purchase of flour. People's fears are also justified by the fact that Kazakhstan introduces state regulation of prices for gas, gasoline, and basic foodstuffs. This will directly affect the reduction of deliveries to the foreign market and, accordingly, increase the prices for these products.

Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have long experienced problems with cargo transportation at the border. Recall that due to coronavirus restrictions, residents of Kyrgyzstan cannot cross the land border to Kazakhstan. The movement of goods is also complicated, according to the Ministry of Economy, goods in Kyrgyzstan go through customs control 2-3 times faster than in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has repeatedly accused the authorities of the Kyrgyz Republic of smuggling goods from China and false reporting. Both countries could not agree and raised this issue at the level of the EAEU. Interdepartmental commissions for all this time have not come to a single conclusion. Given the current situation, such barriers are likely to arise, and basic food, commodities and fuels may not arrive on time.

Internet blocking also affected some enterprises whose servers are located on the territory of Kazakhstan. This caused trouble for the owners of bank cards from Optima Bank and Halyk Bank Kyrgyzstan, people could not withdraw cash and carry out account transactions.

However, what is more important is not so much food security, as supplies are uninterrupted, but the political effect of the protests. After all, just a year ago in Kyrgyzstan there was a change of power through popular unrest. The country, after the constitutional reform, has chosen a presidential form of government, and the sole power of Sadyr Japarov is growing stronger every time. Developments in the neighboring country cannot be ignored by the current government. The economic situation in Kyrgyzstan leaves much to be desired, prices for food and oil products are steadily rising, inflation, according to official data, has reached 12 %. All this against the backdrop of corruption, unemployment, and distrust of state bodies.

The scenario of mass protests is not new to the authorities of Kyrgyzstan, and most likely they will take actions. The call and participation of the CSTO means a huge role for Kyrgyzstan, because in this case Bishkek has a legitimate right to apply for such support in the event of mass demonstrations. A lot of problems have accumulated, but solutions are not yet visible. President Sadyr Japarov may not exclude this scenario for himself and save himself from the people's wrath, unlike his predecessors.

The only "island of democracy" is still more of a problem for the region. This is shown by active coverage of events in Kazakhstan by local media and a case about the non-involvement of a well-known jazz musician in the riots in Kazakhstan, who was exposed as a looter and terrorist in Kazakhstan, having published his confession on national TV channels by the power structures of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The discovery of a lie and the release of a Kyrgyz citizen sowed doubts about the reality of the “terrorist threat” among a number of Kazakhstanis. This situation also showed the activity of civil society and the determination of the authorities to save their citizens. A small country was able to protect its citizen, and this is an important precedent that previously seemed impossible. The events in Kazakhstan have shown the cohesion and strength of civil society in Kyrgyzstan, and this serves as a contagious example for other countries.

Uzbekistan

The country has a direct border with Kazakhstan and is directly dependent on the supply of goods, as it has no access to the sea, which affects the price of imported goods. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are two of the most dynamically developing countries and mutually significant trading partners in the Central Asian region. Almost two-thirds (1.5 billion USD) of Kazakhstan's trade with the countries of Central Asia falls on Uzbekistan. The countries are actively cooperating in all areas and by 2024 they plan to build a high-speed railway line Turkestan-Shymkent-Tashkent.

Close cooperation and an abundance of projects have been implemented quite recently, namely after President Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power. Everyone knows that relations between Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov were strained and the arrival of a new president showed a leap in bilateral relations. Many experts note the imitation of the governance model of Uzbekistan following the example of Kazakhstan, and the frequent personal meetings between Mirziyoyev and Nazarbayev only confirm the thaw and mutual benefit of their relationship.

As with Kyrgyzstan, the main trade is in agricultural raw materials. According to the State Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan exported almost 25% of fruits and vegetables to Kazakhstan in 2020, which is the second largest export geography after Russia. About 90% of all imports of grain products accrue to Kazakhstan. Deliveries from other countries pass through Kazakhstan, and due to instability in the west and the closure of borders for an indefinite period, frozen meat from Belarus has risen in price by 2000-3000 UZS (20-30 cents). The price of some goods in Kazakhstan is several times cheaper than in Uzbekistan, for this reason, Uzbekistanis can import no more than 10 kg of cargo once a month and household appliances once every six months. Now they will have to wait for the stabilization of the situation in the neighboring country.

Last year, the closure of borders due to coronavirus restrictions caused an accumulation of migrants at the border of the two countries. Most of them were citizens of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan who work in Kazakhstan. Migrants had to spend the night at the border with the hope of crossing the border at any moment. Now Kazakhstan is claiming involvement in the riots of people from neighboring countries, and this causes concern among migrants.

The government of Uzbekistan quickly reacted to what is happening in Kazakhstan and suspended the export of natural gas to Russia. The authorities are worried about the possibility of protests in Uzbekistan. The change of power due to the death of the first president and the partial liberalization of the country saved it from mass unrest. However, the economic situation has worsened during the pandemic and prices are constantly rising while current wages remain unchanged.

The government reacted to the situation by extending the holidays until the end of January, which will prevent young people from gathering. It is reported that the media, bloggers, online publications do not distribute information and details of what is happening in Kazakhstan, as they are called in for a “preventive conversation”. These precautionary measures show that the authorities in Uzbekistan are afraid of such a situation. Most recently, the country's president announced the need for constitutional reform and his efforts will be more likely to strengthen his power than to transit. Here it is worth noting the speech of the President of Belarus at a meeting of the CSTO, who called on Uzbekistan to learn lessons and warned about the threat of terrorists to the country.

For Uzbekistan, these events are a signal for the adoption of urgent social measures and a hint at considering a decision to join the CSTO. If the state is afraid of popular unrest, then it will resort to the use of peacekeeping forces and then membership will give it a guarantee of security. Otherwise, the CSTO is unlikely to help Uzbekistan, given that they have friendly relations with the current Taliban government in Afghanistan. The country would rather choose to follow the path of increased censorship and suppression of political freedoms than to become a member of the CSTO.

However, there are also advantages for Uzbekistan, for example, an application for regional leadership. Against the background of instability in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan can take on the role of a political mediator and the new tiger of Central Asia. Experts have repeatedly spoken about the economic competition between the two countries, and Uzbekistan has already successfully attracted international investment and signed contracts with foreign companies. Most likely, investors will prefer a more or less stable Uzbekistan with its huge population and a dynamically developing market, rather than Kazakhstan with its political upheavals.

Tajikistan

The country, although located at a distance and has no borders with Kazakhstan, may also experience the consequences of the events. Kazakhstan consistently occupies the second position after Russia among the foreign trade partners of Tajikistan. If one looks at all the countries of the region, then Tajikistan is the most friendly and loyal partner for Kazakhstan. Most of the investment projects have equity participation in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan tends to recognize the leadership of Kazakhstan in the region, especially against the backdrop of poor relations with Uzbekistan during the Karimov presidency.

As with other countries, Kazakhstan mainly imports wheat, flour, liquefied petroleum gas, sunflower oil, tobacco products and industrial products to Tajikistan. Tajikistan also supplies vegetables, fruits, and raw materials for non-ferrous metallurgy. Due to the lack of direct land borders, the main problem will be the supply of essential goods and the upcoming increase in prices for petroleum products. The country is already facing a rise in the price of gasoline, which has risen by more than 44 % over the past year, and the Tajik consumer basket is shrinking at current low wages.

The reaction of the government to the economic situation is no different from the neighbors. E. Rahmon has no plans to give up power and has recently won the fifth election. His son is the mayor of Dushanbe, and close relatives have full control over the country's main assets. The family-clan regime of E. Rahmon has been suppressing any freedoms and protest moods in the country for a long time. The opposition in the country is suppressed, but there are precedents of protests against the security forces, as in the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous oblast, which is a remonstrative against the official authorities.

In response to the protests in Kazakhstan, social media users began to raise the need for change and reform in Tajikistan. The main lesson that the president has learned for himself is the experience of Kazakhstan in suppressing such protests. The most effective measure will be the definition of "terrorist threat" against the background of the threat of the Taliban from Afghanistan, with whom the authorities have hostile relations. They may well be increasing their power by evoking the danger of an invasion from Afghanistan and by suppressing any protest as a terrorist or extremist attack on state institutions and undermining the integrity and sovereignty of the country. On this occasion, the precedent of using the CSTO troops in Kazakhstan can be used against protesters in Tajikistan. Having a military base of the Russian Federation, the country can count on the help of President V.V. Putin.

What awaits the region of Central Asia?

In general, the events in Kazakhstan made it clear to the countries of Central Asia that a peaceful transfer of power in an authoritarian state is impossible, and the granting of freedoms is always dangerous for the ruling regime. The precedent of using the CSTO troops shows Russia's determination to maintain its influence in this region and only points to its exclusive geopolitical role. Countries are even more forced to get closer to their northern neighbor, since it is the one who provides them with financial resources and will come to the rescue at the right time. Kazakhstan will be the main envoy of Russia in the region.

After the CSTO meeting, it became clear that the terrorist threat is at the forefront, and the countries of Central Asia will be inclined to adopt a package of bills aimed at restricting the activities of NGOs and controlling the Internet. The pressure on the media, civil society will increase, and here the countries are united in their impulse to preserve the security of their own government.

What recommendations and lessons should be learned?

In conclusion, I would like to give recommendations to the politicians of the countries of Central Asia to draw more useful lessons from these events. In order to avoid such protests, it is necessary to solve the problems of the population and eradicate corruption, nepotism, diversify the economy and move out of the raw and industrial into the post-industrial one. Local governments should listen to the population and meet their needs. Ignoring and hushing up problems and suppressing freedoms will only intensify protest moods.

The elimination of opposition leaders and the persecution of supporters of movements opens the way to riots and a lack of dialogue with the protesters. The example of the unrest in Kazakhstan shows that in the absence of constructive leaders, the crowd will be led by criminals and informal leaders, the path to anarchism and unrest will be inevitable. The presence of leaders could force both sides to sit down at the negotiating table and calm the protesters, having heard their demands.

Civil society and the media should pay more attention to education and convey the importance of media literacy for the population. Active coverage of events helps to avoid conflict and the detention of the innocent. After the events in Kazakhstan, Central Asia will no longer be the same, and we will feel changes in politics and the economy very soon.

Sources:

 

Author’s other articles:
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