Tajik consumers speak of reduced shortages of Russian imports and shortages of a number of goods. According to experts’ calculations, prices of a few goods surged several-fold. Experts believe that Tajikistan needs to diversify imports to escape from excessive dependence on Russian commodity supplies.
Illustrative photo, Panjshanbe market in Khujand. Source: asiaplustj
The customs service reports an increase in trade with Russia but acknowledges a decline in supplies of several important products. In this context, imports to Tajikistan from other countries are on the rise.
For the past two months, Dushanbe resident Gulnora has not been able to find detergents produced by a Russian company in the country’s markets and shops.
“There are only products from other companies. There are no deodorants, and many popular detergents, soaps and even nappies are missing”, said Gulnora.
She has to buy products from other companies. Familiar products are being replaced by the ones from south-eastern countries like China and Korea.
Najmiddin, one of the entrepreneurs in the capital’s Kushoniyon market, said that recently there has been a shortage of various wood materials in the market. According to him, before the hostilities in Ukraine, suppliers imported timber from Russia. However, after the outbreak of warfare, supplies from that country decreased.
“Now we are importing timber and wood boards from other countries instead of Russia. However, our people mostly ask for wood materials from Russia. They think their quality is better,” says the CABAR.asia interlocutor.
Najmiddin has been delivering construction materials for 10 years and said this is the first time he has encountered such problems.
There is also a shortage of construction materials, including laminate, wallpaper and various wood materials. As early as April 2022, even Russian-made cat food disappeared, and the shop owner said that it is no longer being brought in.
“Today they have started to bring in Turkish Whiskas, but they are almost twice as expensive. I have to buy it because my cat doesn’t eat anything else,” Marina says.
People in one of the popular Facebook groups have even begun to share information on where to buy popular cat food.
Some food items, such as cheese and dairy products, disappear from the shelves from time to time. Authorities at major supermarket chains in Dushanbe declined to talk to CABAR.asia.
However, some Russian-made goods have been missing from stores for months, customers said.
“Russian-made butter is gone, and we have to buy Uzbek butter instead”, said Mavjuda Salimova, a resident of Dushanbe, adding that there is no Russian powdered milk.
Particularly problematic is the shortage of medicine. For instance, there is no Russian-made erythromycin or Nurofen. Instead, one has to use Indian analogues, but patients find them less effective.
Saeed Sharipov, a representative of the company Shahriyor-2000, which supplies medicines, also admitted that the supply of medicines to Tajikistan has recently decreased, resulting in a shortage of some drugs.
Note that the Russian media have also reported a decline in the production of drugs in Russia in October and November 2022 and a shortage of some drugs, including broad-spectrum antibiotics. This was due to the fact that 40% of companies in the Russian pharmaceutical industry could not find a replacement for imported raw supplies, materials and equipment.
Also on 24 November, the Russian government passed a decree that allows timber exports only to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and only by railway transportation. Exports to third countries, including Tajikistan, were effectively banned.
Authorities: Imports are on the rise, but deliveries of some commodities are in decline
In the first eight months of 2022, trade with Tajikistan totalled $922.6 million, up 22% from 2021, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development. Last year, the Russian government stopped publishing data on exports and imports, the structure of capital outflows and the balance of payments, according to Russian media.
However, a study by the Russian Accounts Chamber found that exports of non-commodities from Russia fell by 19% last November.
The Tajik Customs Service also reports increased trade with Russia in 2022.
Imports from Russia have also increased, dominated by oil and petroleum products and timber.
However, the Customs Service admitted that many products from Russia have seen a reduction in deliveries.
Among these goods are vegetable oils, chipboard, oriented chipboard, soap, surfactants, soybean oil and its cuts, meat and edible by-products of poultry, macaroni products, etc.
There has also been a price increase for several goods.
According to data provided by Tajik customs, imports to Tajikistan have decreased for some goods (less delivered in tonnes), but Russia has received more money for some types of goods. Overall, it can be said that there has been a significant increase in the price of several Russian goods.
Timber and petroleum products, in particular, have seen significant price increases.
According to economic expert Nur Safarov, the rise in the price of some Russian goods is a lasting trend in recent years.
He notes that while in 2020 a 5-litre bottle of Oleina vegetable oil cost about 60 somonis, in 2021 the same 5-litre bottle already cost 95 somonis, and in December 2022 it cost 144 somonis.
"In other words, the growth over these two years was about 140%," the expert said.
There has also been a significant reduction in the supply of a number of Russian goods to Tajikistan.
Export diversification is necessary
Tajikistan adopted an anti-crisis programme after Russia's aggression against Ukraine, addressing the need to provide the domestic market with essential goods.
The programme includes measures to prevent price hikes and support vulnerable segments of the population, the Tajik Ministry of Economic Development and Trade announced.
However, the anti-crisis programme might not work in some sectors, economic commentator Nur Safarov said.
"Especially in those that depend on key players in the global market and on the global supply and distribution chain," Safarov stressed.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he noted, almost the entire business world has been experiencing certain shocks in the energy, food, and logistics sectors, inflationary pressures, shortages of certain goods, and rising costs of fertilizers for agriculture, which affects the entire further food production chain.
Hojimuhammad Umarov, a doctor of economics, believes the price increases for Russian products are also caused to some extent by the arbitrariness of large monopoly suppliers who have raised prices for local produce as well. He said the government should intervene in the situation to "moderate their appetite".
Most economists agree that Tajikistan needs to diversify its imports to avoid excessive dependence on Russia.
First and foremost, this concerns imports of fuels, timber and other raw materials.
Tajikistan needs to seek new export opportunities for its goods and find new markets for essential products, Safarov said. However, he noted that there is a category of food products that are produced in large quantities only in Ukraine and Russia, and "the war has a very strong impact on prices and the volume of supplies on the world markets."
"Tajikistan is heavily dependent on imports of food products and energy resources, and all price fluctuations are reflected in the final cost of goods in Tajikistan. Often significantly upwards", said Nur Safarov, an economic observer.