Tajikistanis are losing Russia as a country that has been a place of work for many of them for many years. The situation for migrants has been deteriorating for the past few years, but the terrorist attack in the Moscow region has accelerated these events incredibly.
The largest terrorist attack in recent years in Russia took place on March 22 in the Moscow region. On the evening of March 22, before the concert of the rock band “Picnic” in the entertainment center “Crocus City Hall” several armed men burst into the entertainment center and opened fire. They shot at all the people and reached the concert hall, where they started a fire. The media noted that during the attack they shouted threats in Tajik. The four attackers then fled the scene unhindered in a white Renault Symbol car.
Later, Russian law enforcers detained four Tajik nationals in the same Renault Symbol car in the Bryansk region, who were accused of committing a terrorist attack. It is unclear how they managed to drive almost 400 kilometers through many traffic police checkpoints all the way to Kaluga region. RBC sources claim that all this time they were tracked by special services – it was important to understand the route of the terrorists and to identify the organizers of the attack. However, in this case, it is unclear why the detention was so complicated, when two passengers even managed to escape into the forest.
The court elected the detainees a measure of restraint in the form of detention for two months. As of March 30, the death toll stood at 144. Most of the victims died in the fire.
As of March 28, 11 people had been arrested in connection with the terrorist attack. Also during the week, 9 residents of Vakhdat were detained in Tajikistan on suspicion of having ties to those accused of the terrorist attack at the Crocus near Moscow.
Immediately after the detention, Russian security forces circulated a video of unprecedentedly brutal torture. There is a video in which one of the suspects has his ear cut off and is forced to eat it. Another video shows a suspect being electrocuted, allegedly by connecting a device to his genitals.
Although two weeks have passed since then, no action has been taken against the law enforcers who used torture and allowed it. Despite the fact that the Commissioner for Human Rights Tatyana Moskalkova spoke that torture is inadmissible in any case.
On the night of March 24, Telegram channels associated with the terrorist organization ISIS, banned in Tajikistan and other countries in the region, spread a video of the attack on the Crocus City Hall, filmed “from the first person”. The video shows terrorists with blurred faces shooting people in the lobby of Crocus. They are wearing the same clothes as the shooters in the concert hall.
Note that the brother of one of the detainees was wanted by Tajikistan authorities on suspicion of belonging to ISIS.
Who ordered the terrorist attack?
Immediately after the terrorist attack in Russia, a version was voiced about Ukraine as the organizer of the terrorist attack. This version cannot be taken seriously, since the Russian side has not presented any credible facts to this day. Moreover, it is doubtful that Ukraine, which depends on international aid, could commit such a brutal act of terrorism and thus spoil its relations with the civilized world.
Russian propagandists in their search for a “Ukrainian trace” proceed from the principle of “who benefits from it”. Such assumptions can go far. Moreover, if we proceed from such logic, it is Vladimir Putin, not Ukraine, who is the main beneficiary of these tragic events.
First of all, Russia predictably rallied around the flag, and Putin’s rating rose sharply. Of course, the results of sociological polls in an authoritarian dictatorship should be treated with a certain degree of skepticism, but a certain increase in the rating is undeniable. This is not the first time that randomly occurring terrorist attacks have helped Putin’s popularity grow.
Secondly, the terrorist attack has pushed the unpleasant for the authorities’ issues of the information agenda to the background. The recent presidential election and questions about Putin’s legitimacy are no longer discussed online. The 40 days since Navalny’s death have not caused the same resonance as before.
Perhaps for the first time since Russia’s aggression in Ukraine began, news from the Russian Federation arouses sympathy and compassion in the world rather than anger and bewilderment.
Therefore, we should look at the facts, not at various insinuations. Those facts, which are available today, indicate that the terrorist attack was most likely committed by supporters of IS, with the connivance of the FSB and other security agencies of Russia, which allowed the shooters to buy weapons somewhere and bring them to the place of mass gathering, and then still escape from the scene of the crime. And the main fact in favor of the IS version is the mentioned video recording made by the shooters at the scene of the terrorist attack.
Unfortunately, the Russian investigative authorities have priority access to the facts, which seem to be doing everything to undermine the already small trust in the law enforcement system of the Russian Federation. The trial on this case for some unknown reason is behind closed doors and the investigation does not comment on numerous inconsistencies and bizarre details of the official version of the terrorist attack.
It is also impossible to take seriously the confessions of the detainees, which were obviously given after cruel torture.
Now the Russian authorities will try to squeeze the maximum benefit out of this situation for themselves in order to further strengthen their position. And in the short term, it is likely to remain the main beneficiary. However, then the situation may change radically.
Pressure on the diaspora after the terrorist attack
The life of Tajik migrants in Russia has consistently deteriorated in recent years, especially after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. However, after the terrorist attack, the pressure on migrants increased even more.
Vladimir Putin on March 26 instructed the Prosecutor General’s Office to work on developing preventive measures in the migration sphere, TASS reported. According to Putin, the situation in this area worries millions of Russian citizens and should be kept under control.
On the same day, State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin instructed to create an inter-factional working group to analyze legislation, with migration policy as a priority in its work.
Over the past week, police officers have conducted mass raids in a number of Russian cities on places where migrants stay. In St. Petersburg alone, the courts ordered the deportation of more than 400 migrants.
Human rights activist Valentina Chupik, who provides free counseling to migrants working in Russia, told Mediazona that in the first two days after the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, she received more than 2.5 thousand calls from foreign citizens staying in Russia. More than half of the messages concerned police raids and illegal detentions.
Migrants reported an increase in cases of aggression against them after the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall. According to the media, in the city of Blagoveshchensk, Amur region, unknown persons set fire to a pavilion belonging to Tajiks. At the same time, the municipality explained that the incident apparently occurred “on ethnic grounds”. In Kaluga, a group of unknown people attacked three migrants from Tajikistan, after which one of them was hospitalized.
In various regions of Russia, local residents are reportedly refusing cab rides when they learn that the driver is a citizen of or from Tajikistan.
In view of these reports, the Tajik Embassy in Russia has urged Tajik nationals to refrain from participating in public events for some time if possible.
The Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of Tajikistan has recorded an outflow of labor migrants from Russia after the terrorist attack. This was reported to TASS by Deputy Minister of Labor of the republic Shakhnoza Nodiri.
Shakhnoza Nodiri noted that “at the domestic level” harassment of Tajik citizens is also recorded, and the Ministry of Labor’s representative office in Russia received threatening messages after the terrorist attack.
There is “panic among Tajik citizens, many want to leave” and the number of those leaving exceeds the number of those entering, she said.
The ministry expects that the outflow is a temporary phenomenon and it will stop, and also urged not to give in to provocative messages on the Internet, which aim to sow interethnic discord.
The report notes that most Tajik migrants who go to work in other countries choose Russia. According to the Ministry of Labor of Tajikistan, more than 627,000 of 652,000 migrant workers went to Russia in 2023.
Dushanbe airline ticket offices told the media that the number of those wishing to buy tickets to Russia has noticeably decreased over the past week, while the number of citizens deported from Russia to Tajikistan has increased. The number of those wishing to travel to Russia by land transportation has also decreased.
To Russia to work? Or to war?
Russian authorities, by collectively punishing migrants for the terrorist attack, want to create a guilt complex, especially among new citizens, and do not hide the fact that they need this for utilitarian purposes. Secondary mobilization in Russia is almost inevitable. Migrants are supposed to be one of the main sources of replenishment of the Russian army in its bloody assaults in Ukraine. And judging by all appearances, a part of Russian society will not mind if it is not them, but new citizens who go to war.
All influential forces are increasingly saying that migrants are undesirable. Even more so because Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov said on March 26 that the number of crimes committed in Russia by migrants in 2023 increased by 75%.
However, the denunciatory pathos of the Russian authorities against migrants – terrorists and criminals – is decreasing since in recent years Russia has been releasing murderers, rapists, and pedophiles for war. Already after the terrorist attack, members of the infamous Tsapki gang, known for their massacres, were amnestied.
In any case, for Tajik migrants, primarily Russian citizens, the likelihood of falling into Putin’s war, which is foreign to them, is growing. These are long-term risks, as Putin’s war with Ukraine drags on indefinitely.
After the terrorist attack, the level of xenophobia in Russian society has increased dramatically. It is believed that antagonism towards foreigners is dictated by racism since people with non-white appearance, in general, are being targeted.
On this basis, the first advice to civil society and the authorities of Tajikistan and other countries in the region is as follows. It is necessary to strengthen awareness-raising work among migrants so that they understand the reality of the prospect of going to a dangerous war, where you can lose your life or become disabled.
It is also necessary to think about limiting Kremlin propaganda, which has nothing to do with journalism.
It is also important to explain to migrants the viciousness of the principle of collective guilt. Everyone should be responsible for himself.
The authorities, civil society, and migrants themselves need to accelerate the search for other routes for labor migrants.
Other measures are real liberalization of the Tajik economy, real reforms to attract investors. The authorities must realize that a sharp return of a significant part of migrants is inevitable and real jobs must be urgently created for them. Otherwise, social tension and even crime may increase.
It is also plausible to predict a decline in Russian exports to Tajikistan, primarily of fuel and lubricants. These Russian goods need to be replaced. And it should be done urgently.
The situation in Russia after the invasion of Ukraine objectively forces Putin into a closer alliance with nationalist and largely criminal forces.
This will require from the authorities in Russia a certain regrouping, including at the international level. In particular, it may have to sacrifice former alliances that are now working poorly or not at all.
Russia is also losing its role as a guarantor of security in Central Asia, including for the ruling elites. Russia itself has turned into a country where an obscure armed group made up of mercenaries and criminals can shoot down military planes and then receive a full amnesty.
Putin has lost control of the situation, and his state has lost its monopoly on the use of violence. This can explain the fact that law enforcers no longer even try to hide the medieval torture of detainees and are not punished for it.
Therefore, the countries of the region need to think about finding a formula for collective security and reforming their own armies.
Chronicle of terrorist attacks mentioning Tajik nationals as terrorists
Accusations of Tajik citizens of committing terrorist acts have been quite frequent in recent years on the part of various countries. Often, the Islamic State was named as the organizer of these events.
In particular, Tajik nationals were detained in January this year after an attack on a Catholic church in Istanbul.
According to the Iranian authorities, the main suspect who committed the January 3 terrorist attack in Kerman was a citizen of Tajikistan.
Also in January, Tajik nationals were detained in Iran who intended to carry out terrorist attacks in the southeast of the country.
Earlier, in August 2023, a Tajik national opened fire on visitors to the Shah Cherah Mausoleum in Shiraz. In July 2023, Germany and the Netherlands detained six Tajiks on suspicion of terrorism. In December of the same year, a Tajik citizen was detained in Cologne on suspicion of preparing a terrorist attack on the Cologne Cathedral.
According to President Emomali Rahmon, over the past 10 years the country has detected and registered 6,680 crimes of extremist and terrorist nature, including 86 terrorist acts and attempts, and prevented 11 cases of terrorist acts and attempts.
The most resonant terrorist attack of recent years in Tajikistan itself was also most likely ordered by the IS.
Thus, it must be recognized that some Tajik youth are vulnerable to extremist propaganda. Here we need qualified expert advice, including in the field of education and psychology.
But it is clear that the existing ideology does not work. It is developed at the top and passed down. Therefore, these narratives are incomprehensible or even alien to many people, and to some extent this plays into the hands of the ideologists of radicalism.