June analytical articles by foreign platforms discussed Kazakhstan’s foreign policy dynamics, “foreign agents” law in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan’s relations with Russia, the opening of a new city in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan’s FDI opportunities, and other important topics in the region.
Russia’s ally Kazakhstan turns eyes to the West
Kazakhstan’s manoeuvring between Russia and the West continues to be one of the most discussed topics in the analytical arena. Australia’s Lowy Institute discussed recent developments in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy. According to the author Nicola Mikovic, Kazakhstan will seek to preserve strong economic ties with Russia due to its dependency on imports from Russia and energy exports. At the same time, the article states that Astana will likely attempt to develop close economic cooperation with neighbouring Central Asian states – Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan’s president Sadyr Japarov and Uzbek prime minister Abdulla Aripov were major guests at the Astana International Forum (AIF) held in Astanan on 8-9 June, while no Russian representative attended the forum.
The AIF was also attended by officials from the European Union. A wide range of issues, from global conflicts to artificial intelligence and digitalisation was discussed, which suggests that Kazakhstan attempts to gravitate towards the West, at least to a certain extent, the article states. It also notes the €9 million EU–Kazakhstan Agreement on the implementation of various economic projects signed on 20 May. Moreover, Kazakhstan’s trade with the EU in 2022 reached a record high of US$40 billion. However, such shifts are a part of a long-term process, and Astana will likely have to continue balancing its nominal alliance with Moscow with its ambitions to establish closer economic ties with the West, the article concludes.
Germany and Kazakhstan aim to deepen partnership Kazakhstan’s deepening ties with Europe, in particular with Germany, were also discussed in light of German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s visit to Kazakhstan on June 20. Deutsche Welle (DW) reports that in his opening statement at the meeting of the delegations, Steinmeier praised reforms enacted under Kazakhs President Tokayev. He welcomed the abolition of the death penalty in particular, as well as the introduction of a constitutional court and the fight against corruption.
Enhancing trade and economic cooperation was central to the discussion. More than 80% of German foreign trade with Central Asia comes from Kazakhstan. Other relevant areas of cooperation are manufacturing, mechanical engineering, energy, transport and logistics, including renewable energy sources, critical raw materials and agriculture. President Tokayev invited German companies to invest in green energy. Furthermore, the Heads of State discussed the establishment of mutually beneficial cooperation in the mining industry and exploration, the Diplomatic Insight informs.Instead of a Cell, a Muzzle: How Kazakhstan Stifles Critics and Avoids Criticism
The Diplomat argues that seeking to reposition itself on the international stage and strengthen ties with its European partners, especially in light of Russia’s increasing isolation, the Kazakh government has resorted to ever subtler forms of repression. In particular, the authorities have used criminal prosecutions of journalists and activists not to jail them but to impose years-long bans on their speech and political activity, a tactic that incurs less international condemnation and scrutiny than lengthy prison sentences.
Opposition leader and journalist Zhanbolat Mamay, for instance, was recently convicted of organizing mass riots for his role in the January 2022 protests against rising gas prices. Instead of imprisoning him, the court levied a six-year ban on “social and political activism,” including posting on social media. Similarly, Alnur Ilyashev, who was convicted in 2020 for social media posts critical of the Kazakh government, received a five-year ban on “engaging in civil and public activities, on voluntarily serving the political, cultural, and professional needs of society, [and] on creating and taking part in the activities of political parties, public associations and foundations.” Several other activists were also handed bans on speech and activism and specifically forbidden from posting anything on social media.
When an activist or journalist is convicted but avoids prison sentence, it’s tempting for the international community to move on, explains the author. However, such ambiguous and vague sentences still have serious consequences on the lives of the activists and do not comply with the right to freedom of expression and the right to political participation.
Planned Kyrgyz foreign agent law threatens press freedom
In late May, a group of 33 Kyrgyz MPs proposed a bill amending a Kyrgyz law regulating non-profit organizations. If approved, the amendments would introduce the term “foreign representative”, which would be applied to non-profits (including non-profit media organizations) receiving funds from foreign governments, or from international organizations (such as donor organizations) that carry out “political activities” in Kyrgyzstan. According to the bill, these organizations would be obliged to register as foreign representatives and submit regular reports to the authorities on the organization’s employment structure, as well as financial reports and audits. Organizations which take part in “violence against citizens or otherwise damage their health” could be fined, and their employees imprisoned for up to ten years.
The adoption of the bill would be a turning point for Kyrgyzstan, which had previously been considered an island of democracy in Central Asia. At the same time, the administration of President Japarov has also proposed a new media law, which worries the country’s media sector just as much. This proposal aims to give the authorities “excuses not to register sites, to remove uncomfortable media, investigations, and to ‘clean’ the country’s informational sphere” according to the wishes of the government. Experts believe that this is the government’s deliberate strategy to weaken independent media and silence alternative viewpoints in the country.German President Urges Kyrgyzstan to Utilize Influence for Improving Afghanistan’s Situation
German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s trip to Central Asia included a visit to Kyrgyzstan as well. The BNN Breaking platform informs that during his visit President Steinmeier described the existing situation in Afghanistan as “unacceptable” and emphasized the need for urgent action to address the numerous challenges faced by the Afghan people. President Steinmeier acknowledged the efforts made by Kyrgyzstan in addressing these critical issues and appreciated their commitment to improving the situation for women and girls in Afghanistan. However, he urged the Kyrgyzstan government to utilize its influence and take concrete actions to help bring about positive change in Afghanistan.
Russia Pushes Tajikistan’s Entry into the EAEU
The June 6 meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon has unveiled the Central Asian republic’s strategic role for Moscow’s foreign policy in the region in defence, security, economy and social sectors, Special Eurasia platform states.
Regarding safety, Lavrov highlighted the West’s growing inclination to undermine Russia and the potential risks posed by the United States in Central Asia. He emphasised the possibility of the US attempting to destabilise the region, particularly considering their withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Lavrov’s emphasis on the potential destabilisation efforts by the US and the significance of Tajikistan as a CSTO partner drew attention on the need for heightened vigilance and proactive measures to mitigate these risks. It also hinted at Russia’s continued military presence in Tajikistan and the possibility of deepening defence and military cooperation with Dushanbe, the article notes.
In terms of trade and economic cooperation, Moscow looks forward to Tajikistan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). On one hand, this presents an opportunity for Tajikistan to consider the potential benefits and implications, fostering discussions on trade partnerships and economic integration with Russia and other member states. On the other hand, Tajikistan’s EAEU membership would firmly place the country under the umbrella of Russian influence, potentially creating a distancing effect with the U.S. and EU. Additionally, such membership would solidify Moscow-Dushanbe relations and cooperation, potentially overshadowing Beijing’s significant investments in local infrastructure projects, the article points out.
Tajikistan: A litmus test for China in Central Asia
Analysing the recent China-Central Asian summit in Xian, Professor Stefan Hedlund argues that China’s approach toward Tajikistan is an important indicator in understanding to what extent Beijing is interested in providing security in Central Asia.
Tajikistan’s importance for China derives from its role in the development of regional security arrangements, the author states, and in particular from its border with Afghanistan to the south. If Beijing is to increase its role in building infrastructure toward the south and guaranteeing safety on its borders, it will have to solve Tajikistan’s list of issues, such as armed conflicts over water resources and poverty.
Discussing possible future scenarios, Hedlund suggests that the problem for Beijing is that if it does decide to raise its military posture, it will run the risk of “mission creep,” of being drawn into conflicts it would rather stay out of. Opting for an open military presence in Tajikistan could stir up local nationalists exploiting animosity to Chinese debt-trap diplomacy.
The alternatives are to outsource security to private contractors, which has already been done in Pakistan, with moderate success, or to remain content with anti-terror drills within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which brings Russia back into the picture. The likely outlook is that Beijing will remain cautious in showing off its military might, hoping that lavish spending and a boost in trade will win Central Asian hearts and minds, in the process also defusing the danger of destabilizing influences, the author concludes.
Turkmenistan moves towards plugging massive methane leaks
The Guardian reports that the president of Turkmenistan has launched two initiatives aimed at cutting the colossal leaks of methane from the country’s oil and gas industry. Success would represent a major achievement in tackling the climate crisis. A roadmap will pave the way towards the central Asian country joining 150 others that have already signed the Global Methane Pledge to cut global methane emissions by 30% by 2030. An inter-departmental government commission will also focus on reducing emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas.
Turkmenistan was responsible for the highest number of methane “super-emitter” events in the world in 2022, the Guardian revealed in March. The worst leak caused climate pollution equivalent to the rate of emissions from 67m cars. President Serdar Berdimuhamedov approved the methane roadmap for 2023-2024 during a cabinet meeting on 10 June. Measures include improving national legislation, cooperation with foreign partners to set up pilot projects and collaboration with the UN’s International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO).
Birthday Boy
The Eurasianet platform discussed the official opening of Arkadag, a brand-new city that has been built at the behest of self-styled National Leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov on June 29. That date also marks the day on which the former president turns 66.
The official tally of work done includes the construction of 336 “modern buildings,” including homes, government offices, schools, theatres, clinics, and sports halls. In March, Agence France-Presse news agency reported, citing an official in charge of the committee managing construction, that the first phase of building Arkadag would end up costing $3.3 billion. “The second phase will cost about $1.5 billion, according to our estimates,” the official was quoted as saying.
On June 16, President Serdar Berdymukhamedov issued a decree ordering the construction of facilities for the production of food, industrial, pharmaceutical and medical goods in the city in the period from 2023 to 2026. International companies are being invited to set up shop to achieve that goal.
Who will underwrite the future of the new Uzbekistan?
Anita Hawser of The Banker shares her observations and reports from the recent European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) annual meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan – the first such meeting to be held in the country since 2003. Due to the cooling of relations between the country’s former president and the bank, EBRD stopped investing in Uzbekistan for over a decade. However, as Hawser writes, encouraged by what has been achieved so far by Mr. Mirziyoyev’s reformist government, the EBRD started investing in the country again in 2017 after a decade-long hiatus. Last year, it invested €839m in 26 projects, making Uzbekistan the leading recipient of bank funding in Central Asia for the third year running.
The article also mentions several foreign banks that are entering the Uzbek market. For example, on June 13, Hungary’s OTP Bank became the first foreign bank to participate in the privatisation of Uzbekistan’s banking sector after it finalised the first stage of its acquisition of a majority stake in the country’s fifth largest lender, Ipoteka Bank. Hawser concludes her article with hopes that foreign investments will help reduce the state’s direct participation in state-owned banks and build a more effective, inclusive and competitive banking system led by private-sector banks.
Will Uzbekistan retain its position as Central Asia’s FDI star?
The Investment Monitor article also shines light on the investment climate of Uzbekistan. The article states that the country has been pulling in impressive FDI numbers in recent years but faces geopolitical headwinds to keep the projects flowing.
Under its 2022-2026 development strategy, the country is seeking to attract $120bn in investments over the next five years. However, other than a lack of transparency, a reputation for corruption and poor transport infrastructure which are highly stressed in the article too, the author argues that Uzbekistan’s location mean that it must carefully balance its relations with key global players if it is to continue to attract its current levels of FDI.
For example, an overexposure to Russia for trade and remittances, and the possibility of secondary sanctions as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, is an economic risk for Uzbekistan. At the same time, its history means that Russia remains a key commercial partner. A sizeable proportion of the Uzbek economy relies on remittances from Russia.
The article concludes that with all domestic and geopolitical challenges in mind, Tashkent would perhaps be well advised to seek to develop new trade relations and diversify its economy away from commodities. If it manages to pull off these feats, the article states, then there should be nothing stopping the country from retaining its status as Central Asia’s FDI success story.
China is engaging with Central Asia like never before
The China-Central Asia summit remains a big topic among regional experts and analysts. Emerging Europe platform argues that deepening ties with Beijing come as other international actors have failed to deliver on investment in the region on the same scale as China.
Discussing the results of the summit, the author Devin Haas highlights the Central Asian countries’ pledges in support of Beijing’s One-China policy that the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China and that Taiwan is “an inalienable part of China’s territory”. In its joint declaration with China, Kyrgyzstan also stated its support for Beijing’s “measures to maintain security, stability and development in Xinjiang” while condemning “the politicisation and instrumentalisation of human rights issues”. Kyrgyzstan and China also agreed to increase cooperation in intelligence sharing, border control, and suspect repatriation while jointly combatting terrorism, extremism and separatism including the “East Turkistan terrorist forces”.
Moreover, Beijing is prepared to provide far more investment and infrastructure for Central Asia than the West has ever seriously put on the table, the author notes. It announced substantial new investment at the Xi’an summit and recently agreed to a financing agreement for a long-awaited China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway that would open another rail route to Europe bypassing sanctioned Russia. As Central Asia’s relations with China continue to deepen and ties with Russia remain strong, it is up to the West to determine if it is interested in increasing its engagement, concludes the article.
Central Asia Diplomats Call for Closer Ties With US
An article by Voice of America (VoA) presents an overview of opinions of U.S.-based diplomats from Central Asia, who advocate for more engagement between the region and the U.S. Many American foreign policy experts agree that a more robust relationship would be mutually beneficial, though U.S.-based nongovernmental organizations express deep concerns about human rights and authoritarian rule in the five countries.
In the virtual gathering, all five Central Asian ambassadors to Washington expressed eagerness to work on issues the U.S. has long pushed for, such as water and energy sustainability, security cooperation, environmental protection and climate, and connectivity.
“The U.S. has played a significant role in promoting dialogue and cooperation among the Central Asian nations through initiatives such as the C5+1,” Uzbek Ambassador Furqat Sidiqov said, referring to a diplomatic platform comprising Washington and the region’s five governments. “This is where we address common concerns and enhance integration,” he said. “We encourage the U.S. to bolster this mechanism.”
Fred Starr, chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington, ardently advocates for the U.S. to adopt closer political, economic and people-to-people ties with the region. He maintains that the governments need U.S. help to institutionalize Central Asia as a political-economic-social entity. Starr urges U.S. President Joe Biden to convene the C5+1 in New York during the 78th session of the U.N. General Assembly in September.