Foreign analytical articles of last month discussed Central Asia in the context of Kazakhstan’s domestic and foreign policy dynamics, the closure of the Azattyk Radio in Kyrgyzstan, foreign aid and government spendings in Tajikistan, US-Turkmenistan relations, constitutional referendum in Uzbekistan, and other important political events in the region.
Steppe Change: How Russia’s War on Ukraine is Reshaping Kazakhstan
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has published an extensive overview by Marie Dumoulin, the director the Wider Europe programme at the ECFR, of the changes that occurred in Kazakhstan’s domestic and foreign policy throughout 2022.
As the paper explores, the war in Ukraine has had significant repercussions for Kazakhstan, including changes in the country’s geopolitical standing and a shift in the way many Kazakhstani people see their own identity and Russia. The war has had an ambivalent economic impact on Kazakhstan, with rising prices for imported products affecting purchasing power, but exports to Russia increasing and high oil and gas prices having a positive impact on the trade balance. The war has also led to the arrival of many Russian nationals in Kazakhstan, causing divisions among the public and raising fears of increased polarisation. The Kazakhstani government has been cautious in its response to the war, trying to avoid controversy and maintain its relationship with Moscow.
The war in Ukraine has given Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy a new meaning: originally its main purpose was to put the country on the international map and attract foreign investors, but now its focus is to enable Kazakhstan to reduce its dependency on Russia. While there has been no real decrease in Russia’s influence in Kazakhstan, nor necessarily an increase in another regional power’s influence, the government has adopted a clear hedging strategy to maximise its geopolitical benefits and strengthen its own sovereignty, Dumoulin states.
The article provides recommendations for the EU in engaging with Kazakhstan, including taking Tokayev’s reforms seriously, insisting on transparency, focusing on judicial reform, supporting a new social and economic strategy, and engaging with Kazakhstan on international issues.
Tory MP criticised for Kazakhstan-funded £5k trip to observe elections
The Guardian published an article about the Conservative MP Daniel Kawczynski’s trip to Kazakhstan to observe the parliamentary elections in March, after which he praised the country’s “functioning democracy”. Kawczynski’s trip, which was officially declared, was paid for by the Kazakh embassy, with £4,500 spent on flights, £400 on accommodation and £200 on food.
Afterwards, he was quoted on the Kazakh government website as saying: “I must applaud the will of the Kazakh people in working together in such a short period of time, after the fall of the Soviet Union, to create this functioning democracy.” The Guardian writes that the MP’s visit happened amid concerns among human rights groups about the treatment of Zhanbolat Mamai, the leader of the unregistered Democratic party. Mamai was this month banned from political activism and journalism for six years. Earlier this year, Tory MP Robert Buckland and former director of public prosecutions Ken Macdonald were denied access to Mamai while on a high-profile trip to examine Kazakhstan’s human rights record, the article notes.
Tom Brake, the director of Unlock Democracy, said: “Whether Mr Kawczynski wanted it or not, his trip to observe the elections in Kazakhstan and his comments about it have been used by the Kazakh government to bolster their claim that their elections demonstrate they are dedicated to the expansion of freedom and democracy.”
Kyrgyzstan: Closure of Radio Azattyk sparks discontent from civil society and international human rights activists
One of the main political news of April in Kyrgyzstan was the court ruling to shut down Radio Azattyk, the local affiliate of RFE/RL. The case against Azattyk was filed by the Kyrgyz ministry of culture in January 2023. Authorities accused the news agency of spreading false information about the Kyrgyz-Tajik border conflict. The ruling sparked a wave of criticism from international human rights organisations. They see the closure of Radio Azattyk as a serious blow to freedom of speech in Kyrgyzstan and a wake-up call for the country’s independent media.
The Novastan outlet provided reactions of some of the human rights activists and journalists on this case. Jamie Fly, president and CEO of RFE/RL has expressed his dissatisfaction with the district court’s decision to close Azattyk. “RFE/RL is appealing the court’s outrageous decision . . . . Our history has shown that when people want reliable information that is censored by their government, they will find ways to access it,” Fly said.
Amnesty International’s director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Mari Struthers, said the claim by Kyrgyz authorities that the video published by Azattyk radio’s affiliate promotes hatred, was an excuse for closing an independent medium.
MP Dastan Bekeshev predicts that media will come under increasing pressure in Kyrgyzstan. Hence, he is afraid the country will gradually become less attractive to foreign investors: “Unfortunately, the country is backsliding because of such unclever decisions and depriving itself of its right to develop. Without freedom of speech there will be no economic miracle,” the MP said.
Kyrgyzstan was a safe haven for anti-war Russians. Then things got hostile
The Open Democracy platform informs that Anti-war Russian activists living in Kyrgyzstan are facing pressure from law enforcement officials, with some being threatened with expulsion from the country. The platform interviewed several Russian citizens who moved to Kyrgyzstan after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The activists had moved to Kyrgyzstan after the invasion of Ukraine, attracted by the country’s reputation as an “island of democracy”. After arriving to the country, they organised a centre to help the new arrivals from Russia found help integrating into life in Kyrgyzstan, learning about Kyrgyz culture, and discuss the fallout of the invasion. However, now the organisers and visitors of the hub are being pressured by the law enforcement agencies. They are being detained, kept under surveillance and charged a fine for “violating the conditions of their stay” in the country, with the police describing the incident as “a conversation about preventing provocations aimed at drawing Kyrgyzstan into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
The article concludes that the Kyrgyz government has become increasingly authoritarian in recent years. The Kyrgyz authorities have banned protests and rallies in a number of locations in the centre of Bishkek, including near the Russian Embassy. The authorities have also limited the activity of citizens who wanted to protest against the war in Ukraine.
Tajikistan pleads poverty, spends money on unneeded luxuries
The Eurasianet article discusses the current situation in Tajikistan, a country that is receiving millions of dollars in aid from international organizations to address food insecurity and poverty. However, recently, the government has spent $92 million on a presidential plane and other unnecessary luxuries, despite the country’s struggling economy due to shrinking remittances from migrant laborers in Russia and inflation risks. The plane was bought from the government of Mexico, and the Mexican government is planning to spend the money to build two hospitals, as was declared by the President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
“With its economy under strain, Dushanbe has been getting handouts from all and sundry, and has had to do little by way of implementing, or even pledging, economic and political reforms in return,” states the article. Some of the recently allocated budgets include 29 million euros ($32 million) in grants from the EU to help with the transition to a sustainable energy system, a $15 million grant from the World Bank to support the “financial and commercial frameworks” of the Roghun hydropower project, another $50 million disbursement from the World Bank to strengthen the country’s agriculture sector, as well as a $35 million grant for a project to protect “poor and vulnerable households from social and economic shocks” from the World Bank.
Temur Umarov, a Central Asia expert affiliated with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argues that the West’s unconditional generosity is likely motivated by its desire to minimize Tajikistan’s reliance on Russia. A Tajik analyst who spoke to Eurasianet on condition of anonymity motivated by security concerns argued that the geopolitical situation was such that the West had lost the power to lay down ultimatums and link financial assistance to political reforms. “Central Asia could now get all the Russian investment that had previously been destined for projects in Europe or Africa. Now that Russia has so few allies left, they are able to redirect their resources to Central Asia,” the analyst said.
Tajikistan’s Loose Definitions of ‘Terrorist’ and ‘Extremist’
The “Central Asia in Focus” newsletter by the Caspian Policy Center informs that Tajikistan’s prosecutor general reported to the deputies in the upper house of parliament, the Milli Majlisi, that 97 Tajik citizens wanted on charges were extradited back to Tajikistan from other countries in 2022. Prosecutor general Yusuf Rahmon said 18 of the 97 were wanted in Tajikistan on charges of extremism or terrorism. Rahmon did not mention which countries were involved, but throughout 2022, Russia extradited activists and journalists living in Russia who were natives of Tajikistan’s eastern Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO). When GBAO residents attempted to conduct a peaceful protest on May 16, 2022, Tajik authorities branded them extremists and launched a sweeping security crackdown in the region. The extradition from Russia of GBAO natives started shortly after that. After the security operation in eastern Tajikistan May-June 2022, the extraditions increased.
Rahmon said in 2022 alone there were 1 197 crimes in Tajikistan connected to terrorism or extremism, an 18.5 percent increase compared to 2021. The publication highlights that among these alleged terrorists and extremists were lawyers, poets, and journalists with no previous record of association with anti-government groups. It has become clear after the May 2022 security operation in GBAO that anyone Tajik authorities consider an obstacle or potential threat will be branded a terrorist or extremist and imprisoned, the piece concludes.
The United States Looks to Expand Cooperation with Turkmenistan
The Caspian Policy Center (CPC) also discusses the meeting between the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkmenistan’s Foreign Minister, Rashid Meredov, on April 24 for their bilateral consultation. This meeting served as an opportunity for the leaders to coordinate government-wide efforts and to discuss emerging options for bilateral cooperation. However, this year’s conference was held in a different light than the years prior, notes the CPC. With Turkmenistan signaling a newfound willingness to expand foreign partnerships and become more involved with international organizations, the relationship between Washington and Ashgabat is beginning to accelerate. And although this meeting was routine, with the backdrop of increasing investment interest in Turkmenistan and shifting geopolitical dynamics, the United States is demonstrating its continued commitment to the shared economic and security interests of Turkmenistan.
The United States is positioning itself as an alternative to Turkmenistan’s traditional ties with Russia and China and is showing its commitment to supporting Turkmenistan’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence. The two countries are also looking to strengthen their cultural and educational partnerships, promote inter-Afghan dialog, improve respect for human rights and labor rights in Turkmenistan, and reduce methane emissions to combat the climate crisis. The meeting also signaled support for investors interested in expanding their portfolios into Turkmenistan, the article highlights.
Uzbek Ballot Promises Freedom, Justice, but Some Have Doubts
An article by “The Voice of America” provides an overview of the situation in Uzbekistan days before the referendum on constitutional amendments, which have raised concerns among some citizens and observers about the motives behind the vote. The proposed constitution includes an extension of the presidential term from five to seven years, leading some to suspect that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev is seeking to remain in power beyond his current term. While some activists and critics call for a stronger political opposition to keep the government in check, others see positive aspects of the proposed draft, such as protections for human rights and the environment.
Overall, the referendum highlights the ongoing challenges facing Uzbekistan as it seeks to balance political stability with democratic reform. While the proposed constitution includes some positive developments, concerns remain about the government’s commitment to genuine political competition and the protection of democratic freedoms, the article states.
In this light, the Freedom for Eurasia platform conducted an extensive analysis of all the proposed changes to the constitution. “The new edition of the Constitution of Uzbekistan establishes an eclectic presidentialized form of government, which cannot be classified either as a mixed republican or as a presidential one. The atypicality of this form of government also lies in the fact that it does not provide for any form of constitutional and legal responsibility of the President of Uzbekistan, the countersigning of his acts by members of the Cabinet of Ministers, significantly distorts the parliamentary investiture of the Cabinet of Ministers of Uzbekistan and fundamentally complicates his parliamentary responsibility,” the authors conclude.
Afghanistan’s Water Demands: Its Impact on Central Asia
The Eurasia Review article discusses the rising tensions in the region because of the Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Irrigation Canal, a 285-kilometer canal that is projected to irrigate 550,000 hectares of land by diverting 25% of the flow of the Amu Darya River to Afghanistan. The Taliban government claims the completed canal will benefit farmers, many of them their Pashtun supporters who will migrate to the area, which is mostly inhabited by ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks.
The Taliban seek self-sufficiency in food, but it remains to be seen if the newly-irrigated land, which is in the most fertile part of the country and now produces barley, corn, cotton, wheat, and rice, will instead be put to use growing opium poppy. Balkh province, which will be served by the canal, is a leading opium poppy cultivating province according to the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime and had a 109% increase in hectares under cultivation from 2021 to 2022.
The existing agreement on sharing Amu Darya water is the 1996 Almaty Agreement signed by the Central Asian republics, but not Afghanistan. The Agreement retains the water allocation quotas established by the Soviet government, and Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan consume more than 80% of the river’s water.
The article states that there is not much what Central Asian states can do to solve the issue. Inviting Kabul formal participation in a water sharing agreement will give the Taliban what it most craves – legitimacy. If the Taliban decline to negotiate or do so in bad faith, some options are to stop (or renegotiate) selling electricity to Afghanistan which imports 80% of its power from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Iran; route surface freight traffic via Iran and the International North-South Transport Corridor which will allow connections to Russia, the Caspian region, the markets of the southern Persian Gulf, and India; and step up counter-narcotics activity and cooperation among the republics.
China Woos Central Asia with Generous Gifts
Beijing is arranging generous gifts for the Central Asian region in preparation of the China-Central Asian summit to be held May 18-19 in Xi’an, The Silkroad Briefing platform reports. Thus far, these have included a Visa-Free agreement being prepared for signing with Kazakhstan, while other Central Asian countries are discussing transport projects and logistics for access to the China’s Lianyungang seaport on the Yellow Sea.
Analysing Chinese motivations and the Russian-Chinese relations in the region, Adil Kaukenov, Head of the Kazakh Institute for Strategic Studies, stated that analysts should not expect a fierce struggle for Central Asia between China and Russia, suggesting that “There are no contradictions in Russian-Chinese relations in Central Asia itself. The fundamental interests of Russia and China in Central Asia coincide. When Kazakhstan or another country in the region signs an agreement with another country, such as China, this is not done to spite Russia. It is done to improve both the political and economic positions of the countries of the region. Therefore, Russia has no questions to the countries of Central Asia, especially since Russia is now in the most difficult confrontation with the West.”
That perspective has been taken up by Mars Sariev, an analyst with Kyrgyzstan’s Optima Bank, who has said “Central Asia is now establishing close relations with China. Against the background of the crisis in Ukraine, Beijing and Moscow have found a common language, and now we see an attempt to build a multipolar world. China is beginning to move away from its traditional cautious policy and openly demonstrate its intentions. Therefore, the countries of Central Asia now need to decide on their positions.”