Participants of the expert meeting “Ensuring Energy Security in the Countries of Central Asia,” organized by the analytical platform CABAR.asia, believe that the problem of electricity shortages can only be effectively solved jointly.
Experts from four countries took part in the online discussion: from Kazakhstan – Petr Svoyik, a specialist in the energy sector with extensive experience in this field; from Kyrgyzstan – economist, analyst Marat Musuraliev, head of analysis and planning department of Kapital Bank OJSC; from Tajikistan – former secretary of the Tajik National Committee on Large Dams, Khamidzhon Arifov and independent economist, general director of Double A Solutions LLC, Abdulla Abdukadirov – from Uzbekistan.
For 30 years, the countries of the region have not been able to solve the energy crisis in their territories. And it is despite the fact that the rapid growth of the population, increase in the number of electrical appliances and, consequently, increase in electricity consumption are quite predictable trends. In recent years, scheduled and rotating outages, limits on energy consumption, prohibition on the use of electricity to certain sectors of business in some countries have become commonplace.
The construction of nuclear power plants in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan could meet the growing demand for electricity, but the need to respond to global climate change, as well as investment concerns, could hinder the implementation of these projects. There are many opportunities for other alternatives, renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind, and solar plants in the countries of the region. However, for Central Asia to achieve energy independence, the political will of state leaders is required, as well as the restoration of the Common Energy Ring, experts say.
Meanwhile, so far, the situation with energy supply in the region remains alarming. With the beginning of this year’s fall season, local media again started talking about power shortages in the regions of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
Residents of Tajikistan complain about the limits of electricity supply
The Tajik media is full of reports that in many regions of Tajikistan, since the beginning of November, electricity is supplied to the homes of citizens only for a few hours in the evening and in the morning. Although Barki Tojik, the country’s main energy holding company, attributes this to maintenance work, people report that even in the suburbs of the capital, Dushanbe city, electricity is cut off during the day.
Khamidjon Arifov, an energy and water expert and former secretary of Tajikistan’s National Committee on Large Dams, considers the explanations for electricity shortages due to low water levels unfounded.
“Last year, there were attempts to explain the lack of electricity by the poor filling situation at Nurek Reservoir. But, in fact, there was no low water in the Amu Darya, and there is no low water this year either. Already in August, the Nurek reservoir was full, and even in excess of the instruction. So, it is not about water, not about its shortage. Maybe there is such a problem in the Syrdarya basin. It was reported that there is low water for two years“, – said Arifjanov.
Kyrgyzstan: “Since 2020, the republic has entered a state of energy deficit”.
The current government of Kyrgyzstan is looking for different ways out of its power supply problems. The head of the Cabinet of Ministers, Akylbek Japarov, said in an interview with the Russian newspaper Kommersant on November 10 that the country will launch 50 small hydropower plants with a capacity of 30 megawatts by spring.
In the meantime, the country has introduced a limit on electricity consumption. This is due to the fact that the level of the Toktogul reservoir, which generates electricity for the hydropower plant of the same name, is at a critically low level.
Economist Marat Musuraliev, head of the analysis and planning department of OJSC “Kapital Bank”, explained during the expert meeting that the annual increase in energy consumption in Kyrgyzstan is on average – plus 5% and new installed capacity has not been commissioned for a long time.
“And as a result, as predicted, unfortunately, since 2020, the republic has entered a state of energy deficit. Plus, since 2020 the cycle of water shortage on the Naryn River began,” Musuraliev said.
He believes that such a critical situation occurred because of ineffective policies and inefficient management of the sector.
“Due to the fact that the authorities treated the energy sector as a cash cow that could be left unfed. Unfortunately, no investments were flowing into this sector. Our energy industry has been unprofitable for a long time and for many years. Because of planned unprofitable tariffs, we have a shortage of floating assets. All this has led to increased depreciation of equipment, because its renewal, repairs have not been able to keep up with the depreciation of equipment,” Musuraliyev said.
He believes that the government will have difficulty meeting its obligations to the population without revising existing tariffs. These tariffs are among the lowest in the region and in the world (the US $0.1) and haven’t changed in a decade.
Operational and investment issues in the energy sector of Kazakhstan
Despite the seeming well-being in Kazakhstan’s energy sector, the country is also experiencing problems in the energy sector little by little. Although the population has not yet been cut off from electricity, the authorities buy the missing power from the Russian Federation during peak hours, said Petr Svoik, a doctoral candidate in engineering and an energy expert with extensive experience in the field.
Svoik believes that the problems in the energy sector in Kazakhstan are similar to those in neighboring countries and are divided into operational and investment ones.
“Operational – it’s a lack of funds to maintain existing facilities. Hence the increased accident rate greatly exceeds the norms. And there is an increased turnover of personnel. But the main thing is that we, like the neighboring republics, have approached the need for development. Our operating rates threaten to transform into investment rates. And how much it will increase in this sense is not very clear, because in Kazakhstan we have only projected balances. Somewhere around 4,000 megawatts of new capacity should be commissioned by the 2030s. And there is no such plan on how we will bring them in, neither on the official government level nor even among the executors,” said Peter Svoik.
Uzbekistan: the critical situation in gas production
In Uzbekistan, where 85% of electricity is produced by CHPs operating on natural gas, the situation is now quite critical due to the fact that the volume of gas production decreases annually, said independent economist, CEO of Double A Solutions LLC, Abdulla Abdukadirov.
“If we were producing 63 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2019, we will barely achieve 40 billion cubic meters per annum this year. The reasons for this are the inefficient exploitation of existing natural gas fields, the failure to allocate sufficient capital investments for the restoration and maintenance of existing fields, and the wrong investment and engineering policy in this industry, which we see,” said Abdukadirov.
Since the new leadership of the republic came to power, the situation is slightly changing, nevertheless, the problems of power supply to remote areas remain.
Nuclear Power in Central Asia: Pros and Cons
Experts believe that the rapid growth of the population and the annual increase in electricity consumption in Central Asian countries will constantly put pressure on the countries’ energy supply. Therefore, it is necessary to increase capacity.
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have stated their intentions to build nuclear power plants on their territories, which could significantly alleviate the situation and meet the growing needs of the region. However, the issue of building two nuclear power plants in Central Asia has supporters and opponents. Opinions of experts participating in the meeting were also divided.
Petr Svoyik believes that nuclear power plants are necessary and exactly two of them are needed because they will be able to supply the entire region.
“There should be exactly two of them, and each of them should have at least two units, to begin with. And then let these units give, for instance, 1200 megawatts. If you take not an individual republic, but the entire region, that’s not much, especially since every year and a half one unit has to stop for 1-1.5 months for rebooting”.
However, the construction of nuclear power plants is justified only if Central Asia’s general energy supply system will be restored, Svoik said. Then it will be possible to sell it not only to Russia but also to Afghanistan and China.
“In other words, nuclear energy is a step to a fundamentally new technical level. And this new level requires an adequate notion of political, economic, engineering, educational, and other levels. This is a very, very responsible step! But if we do not take it, we will be dragging somewhere behind,” said Peter Svoik.
Meanwhile, Marat Musuraliyev, agreeing with the need to increase capacity and in response to a question about compliance with safety at nuclear power plants, said that at present the IAEA sets such strict requirements for the construction of nuclear power plants that the level of safety is beyond doubt.
However, despite the fact that with the same installed capacity nuclear power plants produce twice as much electricity per year as hydropower plants, there are several things to consider when building nuclear power plants. Firstly, it has a much longer construction period than HPPs, which means a longer payback period. And the second is the environmental factor.
“There is one disadvantage that nuclear workers themselves do not like to talk about. The classic PWR reactor has an efficiency of 30% to 34%. So, yes, this reactor will produce 1.2 GW of electric power, but it will also produce twice as much heat in parallel. But utilization is the problem! It is either dumped into a nearby pond or basin or released into the atmosphere through gradation. So, of course, God forbid, if there are glaciers nearby, they will probably get in a lot of trouble,” Musuraliev said.
Abdullo Abdukadirov, who talked about the unprecedented dust storm that broke out in Uzbekistan in early November, which clearly showed the environmental problems in Central Asia, agrees with him.
“Nuclear power plant heat disposal, this is a big factor. And, it’s not just words, it’s nearby. The Tian Shan glaciers are very close, the desert zone, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins are nearby, which will naturally evaporate from the impact of this heat. And desertification of this entire zone will continue,” Abdukadirov said.
He said there are major debates in Uzbekistan society about the need for a nuclear power plant.
Late commissioning terms, high cost per each kWh produced by NPP, and, most importantly, the lack of own personnel, dependence on a third party to manage the NPP, causes great disputes in Uzbek society and is an obstacle to the start of construction of a nuclear power plant.
“In case of complete degradation of the quality of human resources and dependence on a third party in the management of this NPP means that 15-20% of the capacity of the entire country will go into management [of the third party]. It doesn’t bode any good political prospects. Can you imagine, those central regions of Uzbekistan, the city of Tashkent, Samarkand will be powered by the NPP! What if something happens? And if the nuclear power plant stops supplying at least 50% of its capacity, what will happen in these areas?” – said Adbukadirov.
Central Asian countries have alternatives to nuclear power. Those are solar, hydroelectric, and wind power stations. These are the sources that need to be developed, the expert believes.
What should be done?
In order to ensure the energy security of the entire region, Central Asian countries need to increase their own capacities and restore the Common Energy Ring, which was used to connect the power lines of all the countries in the former Soviet Union.
The issue of restoring the Common Ring inevitably arises for the countries of the region, since not a single country has been able to solve its own problems with power supply on its own. Both in previous years and nowadays, when necessary, the countries use the capacity of the old ring to transfer electricity to each other. And it will definitely need to be restored when the countries put the planned capacities into operation. This requires only political will and awareness of the leaders of the states, experts believe.
Peter Svoyik proposes creating a United Central Asian Energy and Water Committee, which will include representatives of each country. Now the countries use diplomatic channels to make the transfer. This requires additional time and coordination.
Meanwhile, “energy is dispatch, and dispatch requires order and discipline, more so than in the military,” Svoik says.
“If we want to move forward together, an interstate water and energy committee should be created with national representatives who would be mandated by parliaments, by governments with high authority, with long-term tenure, so he’s not afraid of being quickly replaced there. And what should this committee do? Well, first of all, operational matters, to operate the common Central Asian energy system together. And in the economic sense, not just in the dispatching sense,” Svoik said.
There are mechanisms for this. The countries simply need to strictly comply with all conditions, he said.
Marat Musuraliyev believes that it is equally important to establish a good legal framework in their territories, which provides not only in the paper but also in practice, a favorable investment climate.
“These laws should provide a guarantee for the protection of private property and appropriate tax regime, logistical infrastructure, and other conditions,” Musuraliev said.
At the same time, the most important thing is for each country individually to implement plans to build large hydroelectric and other plants to meet the growing demand for electricity.
“For Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, using hydroelectric resources to generate power remains a priority for the next 20-30 years because we have the cheapest ones,” Arifzhanov said.
Besides, we need to improve political interaction and solve problems with all the neighbors in the region, the experts said.
The full version of the expert meeting can be viewed by following the link: