Cooperation between Tajikistan and Georgia has great potential. In particular, Tajikistan could benefit from Georgia’s successful reform experience, including police reforms and the integration of national minorities, says Navruz Karimov, a member of the CABAR.asia School of Analytics.
Tajikistan and Georgia are similar in many ways. Both countries were once part of the Soviet Union, the territories are predominantly mountainous and are in Russia’s sphere of interest. Unlike Tajikistan, which has chosen to remain a loyal ally of Russia, Georgia has always tried to move toward the West.
The first years of independence saw civil wars for power in both countries, which lasted until 1993 in Georgia and until 1997 in Tajikistan. Emomali Rahmon, who assumed the presidency in Tajikistan in 1994, has been in power unchallenged to this day. In Georgia, on the other hand, the opposition is still active and power changes periodically.
The conditions for reforms in Georgia were formed by the so-called “Rose Revolution” of 2003, during which the corrupt regime of President Eduard Shevardnadze was overthrown. President Mikheil Saakashvili, who won the elections, introduced a series of reforms in the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of power.
Amid euphoria and popular thirst for change, these reforms have been swift, not always successful. But Saakashvili was able to significantly reduce the level of corruption and improve the country’s standard of living.
In Transparency International’s 2021 Corruption Perception Index, Georgia ranks 55th, while Tajikistan ranks 150th. And in the World Bank’s 2020 Ease of Doing Business, Georgia ranks 7th, while Tajikistan is 106th. Naturally, high scores in the Ease of Doing Business Index led to a steady growth of Georgia’s GDP.
Tajikistan’s low development indicators in relation to Georgia can be explained by the fact that the reforms implemented in Tajikistan are fragmented, often their potential is not realized, and changes remain only on paper.For instance, let’s examine the results of Tajikistan’s first police reform in 2013-2020. The main strategic goals of the reform were:
– Preventing offenses and crimes;
– Improving citizens’ perceptions of the work of the police;
– Combating torture and ill-treatment;
– Improving the image of a police officer free of corruption;
– Working closely with the population to maintain order and safety;
– Creation of conditions prompting victims to cooperate with law enforcement agencies.
Subsequent research and civil society reports suggest that the goals of reform have not been achieved.
Note that from 2011 to 2018 there was a formal 150% increase in police salaries, but this had little impact on their lives if we consider the average annual inflation rate from 2011 to 2018 at 6.2%.
In total, about $132.3 million was spent on police reform. Meanwhile, in 2021 alone, the Civil Society Coalition Against Torture recorded 24 appeals for torture and ill-treatment. The media periodically receives information that the police do not accept statements from citizens, do not register, and do not investigate the facts of the crime.
There is also no clear sanctioning mechanism for law enforcement officers who violate the rights of detainees and apply to the police. Hence the ambiguous opinion of the population regarding the work of the police.
There is also no clear sanctioning mechanism in relation to law enforcement officers who violate the rights of detainees and who appeal to the police. Hence there is an ambiguous opinion of the population with regard to the police.
A study conducted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan on the performance of the police in 2019 shows that over 80% of the population trusts the police. However, the study was conducted by the ministry itself, that is, the researchers were under the direct influence of the customer, respectively, and due to the conflict of interests, we can’t rely on the objectivity of the results.
On the other hand, the results of independent mass media surveys show a lower level of trust in law and order bodies.
For example, the newspaper “Vecherka” interviewed 1200 people in 2017 and found that 42% do not trust the police, and another 38% do not completely trust the police; “only 16% absolutely trust the police.
Georgia successfully managed to improve its image and get rid of corruption and torture in the ranks of law enforcement agencies back in 2004-2011 during the reign of Mikhail Saakashvili.
The traffic police were completely abolished in favor of the emergence of patrol police, whose salaries were increased above the national average. In the subsequent years, about 35 thousand employees were suspended from the police, and the vacant places were filled by specialists with good physical training. Today, another item – high intellectual ability – has been added to the hiring conditions.
The selection process is so difficult that only 10 out of 100 applicants get the job. Unlike the Tajik police, in Georgia, any crime is registered, whether it is petty theft or a crime that cannot be solved a priori. If a police officer refuses to take a report, he can lose his job. Police stations have been replaced by service agencies with transparent windows so that anyone can observe police work even from the streets.
An interesting point is that each patrol is equipped with a camera and obliged to record any dialogue with citizens so that facts of corruption on the part of the police cannot be hidden. If corrupt practices are exposed, the officer will be fired and will no longer be allowed to return to his position.
Such measures have completely changed the appearance of the police, the statistics have become transparent and the work has become free of corruption. Public trust in law enforcement grew from 10% in the 1990s to 90% in 2012. It should be noted that later with the growth of authoritarian tendencies in the Georgian government, the trust of the population began to fall again.
Integration of Ethnic Minorities
Georgia’s experience with the integration of ethnic minorities is a worthwhile topic of research. Especially because it takes place in conditions when about 20% of Georgian territories – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – are occupied by Russia. Being in isolation, the state program for the integration of national minorities does not apply to the residents of these territories. But the government is trying to create the necessary infrastructure on the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by building hospitals there.
In addition, there has been an attempt to issue so-called neutral passports, recognized by the UN, in which citizenship is not specified, but they allow residents of the self-proclaimed republics to visit a limited number of foreign countries. The idea was that minorities who did not want Georgian citizenship, for the time being, would agree to an intermediate (neutral) document and refuse Russian passports.
This idea did not become popular because the neutral document gave no preferences, while the Russian passport allowed people to receive salaries and pensions. In addition, people still perceived these passports as Georgian.
The educational program “4+1” which allowed applicants from national minorities to take general knowledge examinations in their native language can be considered more successful. And before passing to profile disciplines – students have to study the Georgian language for 1 year.
There are also separate public organizations in Georgia that deal with issues of ethnic minorities – they hold educational events where political and human rights are explained, and they distribute literature in the Georgian language. It is interesting that public organizations go to the regions and promote democratic values among young people and conduct separate educational work with clergymen because the church is a powerful tool for spreading propaganda in Georgian society (just like mosques in Tajik society).
In Tajikistan, issues of integration of national minorities do not receive as much attention as “national unity”. We can only assume that the authorities fear a split in society and the emergence of conflict situations.
The Problem of Trade Diversification
The problems faced by Tajikistan and Georgia are similar in many respects. Among them is the need to diversify the economy from overdependence on Russia.
In 2021, Georgia exported $610 million worth of goods to Russia, an increase of 38% over 2020. More than half of wine is exported to Russia, and 94% of wheat and over 23% of natural gas were imported from Russia in 2021.
The factor of strong resource and export dependence (Russia is one of the three largest trading partners) forces Georgia to adhere to the policy of “no irritation” and refrain from joining the international sanctions against Russia.
Tajikistan faces the same problem. Tajikistan’s imports are almost twice as much as its exports. According to official data, about 60% of all imports in 2021 came from just three countries – Russia (30%), Kazakhstan (19%), and China (16%). The situation with exports is even more critical – 70% of all Tajik exports in 2021 also came from only three major partners – Switzerland (42%), Kazakhstan (17%) and Turkey (11%).
The lack of diversification of export-import relations is a serious threat to the food and national security of Georgia and Tajikistan. The problem for Tajikistan is exacerbated by the country's migration dependence on Russia because remittances to Tajikistan constitute more than 25% of the country's GDP.
Prospects for Bilateral Cooperation between Georgia and Tajikistan
An Interparliamentary Friendship Group has been established between Tajikistan and Georgia with the aim to strengthen relations between the countries. Today Georgia is positioning itself as an alternative transit country connecting East and West. In order to develop transport links between the countries, an Agreement on international carriage by road was signed for the first time in April 2021.
Since then, there is no need to constantly exchange permission forms for international transportation; there are opportunities to use Georgian ports for future transportation and to establish road connections with Turkey.
It is important for Tajikistan to expand and diversify trade relations. It has been proven that increased trade between countries leads to higher growth rates and higher incomes of the population.
The document supporting this assertion is UN Resolution 70/197, which recognizes “the important role of environmentally sound, safe, efficient, reliable and affordable multimodal transport and transit corridors for the efficient movement of goods and people in supporting sustainable economic growth, improving the social welfare of people and enhancing international cooperation and trade among countries”.
The United Nations also “сalls for efforts to promote regional and interregional economic integration and cooperation, including by improving transportation infrastructure, enhancing connectivity and facilitating trade and investment”.
The establishment of transport links is part of TRACECA, a program for the development of the Europe-Caucasus-Asia transport corridor, first proposed by the European Union in 1993.
The transport corridor begins with the Eastern European countries of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine and continues through Turkey to the South Caucasus. The second corridor runs through the Turkish and Georgian ports on the Black Sea, reaches the railroads of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, crosses the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan to the cities of Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan), Aktau (Kazakhstan), and reaches the territories of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, as well as the borders of China and Afghanistan.
As part of TRACECA, the Global Transit Document pilot project is launched in 2022, which is an electronic infrastructure for the smooth transport of containerized goods. An important part of TRACECA is also the eTIR project, a unified transit permit that makes border crossing times easier. It already exists between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, but if the South Caucasus and Central Asian countries implement eTIR everywhere, Tajik truckers, for example, will only need to obtain one electronic permit document instead of four to cross the Turkish border. Simplification of customs procedures will most likely lead to an increase in export-import volumes between Tajikistan, South Caucasus, and other TRACECA member states.
Human relations are an important aspect of the development of relations. First, there are still no direct flights between Georgia and Tajikistan. Visitors have to fly through Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan, and one-way tickets (Dushanbe - Tbilisi) cost $300 - $500 with long layovers of 4-12 hours. For example, flights from Georgia to European countries are many times cheaper.
In addition to tourism, it is necessary to develop human relations in science, create conferences on cross-regional cooperation, and open double degree programs.
In addition to tourism, it is necessary to develop human relations in the field of science, create conferences on cross-regional cooperation, and create double-degree programs.
Thanks to the rapid development and implementation of working sanctions and preventive measures against corruption and abuse of power, Georgia has managed to show higher growth rates than the countries of Central Asia. Today Uzbekistan shows the world an example of how to carry out effective reforms and integrate deeper into the process of globalization. At the beginning of the reforms, the government of Uzbekistan engaged not anyone, but Georgian specialists to consult governmental structures.
Tajikistan can follow the same path and invite international consultants who have practical experience in conducting reforms. The experience of Georgia can be adopted by Tajikistan after careful analysis and adaptation to public requirements. But for this, it is necessary to develop human relations at least at the level of ministries, so that the government of each country would understand the direction in which Georgia and Tajikistan could work together.
Tajikistan ranks sixth in the structure of medicine exports from Georgia. In 2021, Tajikistan bought 113.7 tons of medicines worth $2.8 million from Georgia. Georgian pharmaceutical companies may take a closer look at the Tajik market and invest in advertising their drugs in Tajikistan.
Georgia accounts for 59% of the cost of Tajikistan’s import of mineral water without added sugar. One-third of fresh grape imports to Tajikistan is also Georgian, but while in 2019 Tajikistan bought $347,000 worth of wine from Georgia, in 2021 that figure dropped by 30% (to $240,000).
Georgia's share in the structure of imports of various drinks is still insignificant - only 2.9%. Russia and Kazakhstan take the leading positions. Potential sectors for increasing Georgian exports to Tajikistan are automatic data processing machines and their assemblies - their export increased significantly in 2021 from $40 thousand to $309 thousand - this market still has the potential to grow, for only in 2021 Tajikistan purchased such machines worth $8 million and 783 thousand dollars.
The same goes for electric generators and rotary converters – in 2020, Tajikistan's imports from Georgia were valued at $125,000; in 2021, that figure rose to $169,000.
Georgia can use the large influx of IT specialists to create a regional and potentially global IT hub - to become a supplier of programmers and software. Among other things, this will lead to improvement of human relations between regions: in Tajikistan, the sector of financial technologies and e-government is actively developing, but there is a lack of specialists. The Tax Committee, the National Bank of Tajikistan, and the Ministry of Economic Development are interested in the development of e-commerce. One potential area of cooperation could be to work on the scalability and stabilization of the Korti Milli - a local payment system that replaces the Visa and Mastercard within Tajikistan.
Conclusions and recommendations
Tajikistan can learn from Georgia's experience with reforms, especially police reform, as well as methods of integrating ethnic minorities and developing sovereignty. To this end, Tajikistan can:
- Invite Georgian consultants with practical reform experience to design and implement Tajikistan's judiciary, executive, and legislative powers.
- Create a concept for the integration of ethnic minorities in Tajikistan, and offer a program for teaching the state language to those living in Tajikistan who do not speak Tajik.
- Gradually weaken Russia's dominant influence over Tajikistan by diversifying migration flows and trade partners and by combating Russian propaganda.
- It is necessary to create a regional organization in Central Asia without the participation of Russia or China, where the development of the sovereignty of each of the Central Asian countries will be discussed.
Georgia and Tajikistan have prospects to build trade ties, by improving transport and customs infrastructure, as well as developing certain sectors of trade. It is important to continue working on the digitalization of customs procedures and the development of the TRACECA transport corridor, which will facilitate trade with South Caucasians, Oceania, and European countries. This would be another step toward trade diversification for Tajikistan.
Tajikistan could potentially increase the share of imports of Georgian goods - medicines, mineral water, wine, and computers. To achieve this goal, Georgian companies should invest in Tajikistan's advertising market and promote their products.
Human connections play an important role in the development of relations between countries. It is necessary to increase the number of cross-regional conferences, introduce double-diploma programs and intensify meetings at the level of ministries and parliaments to identify and implement specific areas of cooperation.