The return of the Taliban (banned in Central Asia and considered terrorist) to power in Afghanistan would have a significant impact on its neighboring countries, and the Afghan agenda would become more important in the foreign policy of Central Asian countries, experts say.
Today, events in Afghanistan are the constant focus of all the world’s media. For many, it is still unclear how the Taliban managed to defeat the Afghan army, equipped with the latest weapons, and seize power in such a short time.
Tajik experts say that the rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops had an impact on the combat efficiency of the Afghan army. However, according to them, there are a number of other factors that also laid the foundation for the victory of the Taliban (a movement banned in Central Asia and recognized as terrorist).
According to Tajik analyst Faridun Hodizod, widespread corruption in the Ashraf Ghani government “drove the people to the point where they embraced the Taliban.
Another reason for the government’s collapse was the questionably quick surrender of Afghan troops. Taliban spokesmen said that most Afghan towns and districts “joined” them voluntarily, without a fight.
However, some Taliban opponents, such as the governor of northern Balkh province, Ato Muhammad Noor, said that “all government troops and security forces surrendered to the Taliban as a result of a large, well-organized and cowardly plot”.
Marshal Dostum, myself, Balkh Govenor, Balkh MPs, Head of Balkh Provincial Council and few other officials are in a safe place now. I have a lot of untold stories that I will share in due course. Thanking all who proudly resisted to defend their land. Our path won’t end here.
— Ata Mohammad Noor (@Atamohammadnoor) August 14, 2021
The fall of the Ashraf Ghani government in a matter of days
Afghan officials and experts say the political situation in Afghanistan has changed dramatically since the United States announced the withdrawal of its military contingent from the country. In April 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that U.S. and NATO troops would leave Afghanistan by Sept. 11.
The withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan was part of a U.S. agreement with the Taliban (a movement banned in Central Asia and recognized as terrorist) signed in 2020 in Doha, the capital of Qatar. After the U.S. decision to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban rapidly intensified. They were especially quick to take control of areas in the north of the country.
On August 7, Taliban fighters attacked provincial administrative centers, capturing first the city of Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province. One week was enough for the Taliban to take over Afghanistan’s largest cities such as Kandahar, Herat, Ghazni, Mazar-e-Sharif and Faizabad. Most of these cities, except for Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif, fell without a fight. While the Afghan government and prominent figures pledged to confront the Taliban, the movement’s fighters had already reached Kabul by the morning of August 15.
President Muhammad Ashraf Ghani and some of his entourage fled Kabul as soon as the Taliban approached the Afghan capital. Contrary to the predictions of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and experts, Kabul lasted only a week. This unforeseen situation led to chaos in the Afghan capital, with thousands of citizens rushing to the airport in the city to leave the country by any flight. People said they wanted to flee Afghanistan for fear of retaliation from the Taliban.
Tragic footage of people clinging to the wings of an airplane, falling from a height and dying, has made the rounds of the world’s media and social networks.
Almost all of Afghanistan, except for Panjsher Gorge, is now under Taliban control. Vice President of Afghanistan Amrullah Saleh is in the gorge. He declared himself interim head of state. He referred to the country’s Basic Law, which states that the vice president takes over the leadership of the country in the event of the resignation, death or flight of the president.
According to unconfirmed reports, convoys of Afghan government forces who did not surrender to the Taliban arrived in Panjsher on August 17.
Some other influential representatives of the former Afghan government, in particular, Prime Minister Abdullah Abdullah, former President Hamid Karzai started talks with the Taliban in Doha on August 18.
The Taliban promised to ensure the rights of women, national and religious minorities and freedom of expression, as well as to form a “coalition government. However, Tajik experts believe that these promises are hard to believe, given the experience of the Taliban’s former rule in the late 1990s.
The Taliban’s jihadist ideology is the main threat
Experts are already warning that the return of the Taliban (a movement banned in Central Asia and recognized as terrorist) to power would have a significant impact on Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Political scientist Qosim Bekmuhammad noted in a commentary to CABAR.asia that the Taliban’s jihadist ideology poses a real threat to the region and could become attractive to the masses at large.
“As was the case in the 1990s, when the mujahideen came to power in Afghanistan and declared that we had won the superpower and that this was the power of Islam. Then this propaganda spread strongly in Central Asia. Now it’s being claimed that the barefoot Taliban were able to kick out another superpower,” he said.
According to Tajik analyst Faridun Hodizod, past experience has shown that supporters of political Islam tend to expand their ideology after coming to power.
“For example, after the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, its ideas were tried to spread to other regions,” Hodizoda said.
“The Taliban (a movement banned in Central Asian countries and recognized as terrorist) has repeatedly stated that it will not attack its neighbors and will maintain good relations with them. But it seems that the Central Asian states, especially Tajikistan, do not have much faith in these promises. Immediately after the appearance of militants in northern Afghanistan, the Tajik government sent an additional 20,000 troops to the border and for the first time conducted a nationwide inspection of its armed forces.
The main reason for the Tajik and Uzbek authorities’ concern about the Taliban is the involvement of citizens of their own countries in the group. These include Tajik citizens in the Ansarulloh (banned in Tajikistan and recognized as terrorist) and Uzbek citizens in the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (banned in Uzbekistan and recognized as terrorist).
Radio Ozodi reported in late July that the Taliban had handed over control of the areas bordering Tajikistan to Ansarulloh.
Kosim Begmuhammad said that the Taliban, as a religious ideological movement, would sympathize with and cooperate with other religious radical groups.
“The experience in 2001, when they did not accept U.S. terms and refused to hand over al-Qaeda leaders, is evidence of that. That is, the support of allies and Islamic groups was very important to the Taliban. The Taliban will not abandon this principle now, though they will be cautious in the initial stages,” Begmukhammad said.
Based on these realities, Tajik experts emphasize that the Afghan agenda is becoming more important in the foreign policy of Central Asian countries compared to previous years.
In Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the Taliban are recognized as a terrorist group. However, official structures in both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have already met with members of the movement.
According to experts, the policy of the Central Asian states toward the Taliban depends on two factors. The first is Russia’s policy toward the new regime in Afghanistan. And the second is the extent to which the Taliban (a movement banned in Central Asia and recognized as terrorist) will be recognized by the international community.
“The experience in 2001, when they did not accept U.S. terms and refused to hand over al-Qaeda leaders, is evidence of that. That is, the support of allies and Islamic groups was very important to the Taliban. The Taliban will not abandon this principle now, though they will be cautious in the initial stages,” Begmukhammad said.
Based on these realities, Tajik experts emphasize that the Afghan agenda is becoming more important in the foreign policy of Central Asian countries compared to previous years.
In Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the Taliban are recognized as a terrorist group. However, official structures in both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have already met with members of the movement.
According to experts, the policy of the Central Asian states toward the Taliban depends on two factors. The first is Russia’s policy toward the new regime in Afghanistan. And the second is the extent to which the Taliban (a movement banned in Central Asia and recognized as terrorist) will be recognized by the international community.
What lesson can Tajikistan draw from the events in Afghanistan?
The Afghan army, which according to estimates of the former government had 300,000 men, was equipped with the latest equipment and was defeated in a matter of weeks. Tajik experts say the army was defeated because of the high level of corruption in the government and the people’s disappointment in Ashraf Ghani’s government.
Faridun Hodizoda believes that the most important lesson Tajikistan and other Central Asian states should learn from the Afghan experience is the understanding that people’s trust in their government is important for the sustainability of power.
“Corruption and parochialism must be eradicated so that people are satisfied with the government. Otherwise, they will start thinking about other ideologies, such as why there is no justice in their states,” Hodizoda said.