The coup d’état in Syria involving followers of radical parties and movements such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and others raises many questions.
There are fears in Central Asian countries that supporters of the global caliphate, associated with various radical Islamic groups, who are now receiving high positions in the new Syrian government may repeat the scenario of the banned Islamic State (IS).
Given the growing level of radicalization within the countries of the region and the presence of so-called ‘sleeper cells’ of extremists, the recognition of Central Asians through their appointment to high military posts is particularly worrying.
In early January, Saifiddin Tojiboev, a 41-year-old native of Tajikistan, was appointed head of the operational staff in the defense ministry of the new Syrian government. He was one of the commanders of the militant wing of Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, a group allied to the ruling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) movement that came to power in Syria. The majority of Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad fighters are from Central Asian countries.
The fears are confirmed by the fact that, since 2012, many Central Asian citizens who joined the ranks of ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in many countries of the world) and fought in Syria and Iraq have already joined the system of global religious terrorism.
The number of those who survived the defeat of IS and their fate in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and other countries is currently unknown. Judging by the fact that the names of Central Asians pop up from time to time, there are quite a few of them. Each of these people has close relatives in their countries and could theoretically induce them to support their ideology in the future.
Even more so because propaganda and recruitment to the ranks of jihadist supporters on the Internet continue, and these appeals are growing every day.
Most experts believe that this will have a negative impact on the countries of Central Asia, and sooner or later will reach Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. It may not seem so dangerous now, but with time the risks will increase.
History of the emergence of radical Islamists in Central Asia
The history of the emergence of militant Islam in Central Asian countries began after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The peoples of Central Asian countries lived with a different worldview for more than 70 years, when religion, including Islam, was banished from political life.
After independence, a revival of Islam began in the countries of the region, which was based not only on traditional Sunni Islam. After the opening of borders, large numbers of young people from the countries of the region travelled to Egypt, Yemen, Iran, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to receive religious education. These countries allocated large sums of money to support religious education.
After completing their studies in religious educational institutions in Eastern countries, these graduates returned to their home countries. Often, the new preachers began to propagate an Islam that was radically different from the peaceful and tolerant Islam that was previously adhered to by believers in post-Soviet Muslim countries. Now, in the countries of the Central Asian region, an Islam that bore the hallmarks of extremism and terrorism, which prioritized radical struggle against opponents of their views, began to take hold.
The civil war in Tajikistan in 1992-1997, the emergence of many Islamic movements and paramilitary groups such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Jamaat Ansarulloh and others (all of which are banned in most Central Asian countries) are vivid examples of the politicization of Islam.
The ideology of radical Islam continues to spread
Today, this ideology, despite strict control and severe pressure from the authorities, continues to spread covertly. And this is clearly visible in the societies of Central Asian countries. Despite all the efforts of governments and numerous support programs, external signals of radicalization are being felt more often. This is particularly evident in the treatment of girls and women in urban and rural areas, in how few women in some countries of the region receive education, especially higher education and vocational training, etc.
Despite all efforts and control by the authorities, the Central Asian countries are becoming a battleground for the clash of different ideas and the propaganda of political Islam.
Causes of radicalization
The emergence of Central Asians in the world system of Islamic terrorism and the recognition of their merits in Syria is dangerous for these countries because the seeds of the ideology of creating a just Islamic caliphate have already been deeply sown in the minds of the peoples of the countries of the region. And the glorification of such names as Sayfiddin Tojiboev, Gulmurod Khalimov and others only fuels this ideology.
The participation of Central Asian citizens in wars in other countries began around 1991. In 2013, when the call came from Iraq and Syria for the victory of Islam, along with people from other countries, thousands of Central Asian citizens travelled there.
Recognised, highly specialised militant groups of Tajiks and Uzbeks in Syria have shown that citizens of these countries have become part of the unified system of global religious terrorism, along with Bin Laden, Abu Musab al-Zarkovi, Tahir Yuldoshev, Juma Namangoni, Gulmurod Halimov, Sayfidin Tojiboyev.
Taking into account the developments around the world, the increasing radicalisation in the region, the exclusively forceful methods of confronting these ideas, and the policy of strict control and suppression in the fight against extremism, traditional Islam will not be able to resist this process in the future. And the Central Asian region will become a field of competition for other people’s interests. These groups need only time to assert themselves.
Various studies have shown that the recruited supporters of various terrorist groups serving sentences in their home countries or in the countries where they were fighting had different social statuses. Among them, along with those from poor backgrounds with little secular or religious education, there were many educated people with good incomes and high status in their societies. However, they still joined IS. Most Central Asians travelled to Syria via Turkey and Russia.
Why did the IS ideology become so attractive to people, especially Central Asians, who joined them?
The leaders and recruiters are well-educated people who have received a good education and have targeted mainly young people who are dissatisfied with their living conditions. This is the basis of recruitment strategies even now. Dissatisfaction and poverty is a good ground for recruitment.
Second, the tradition of religious education in Central Asian countries is underdeveloped and the official clergy has not been able to resist the strong propaganda of the radicals.
In an interview with CABAR.asia, Sebastien Peyrouse, professor at the Central Asia Programme of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, said that in most Central Asian countries, the teaching of Islam in its theological dimension is limited to state-approved, mid-level religious schools – madrassas – and some higher education institutions.
‘Central Asian governments have a limited controlled network of religious schools, which they consider sufficient to cover the entire geographical area of the country. These institutions are set up as places to disseminate approved religious doctrine and reconsolidation of religious authority under the control of political power. Quran schools have no choice but to give in to government policies,’ said Sebastien Peyrouse.
In addition, one of the main factors contributing to radicalization is the economic component.
Unemployment, economic recession, social injustice, lack of social lifts, as well as other reasons that have been described in numerous studies on the subject, are driving factors that contribute to the successful propaganda of youth recruiters to terrorist organizations.
Growing risks for Central Asian countries
Islamism and extremism in IS gravitate towards radical ideologies that are based on political centralization and the pursuit of social justice.
Here we are not talking specifically about the banned IS, but about the ideology of building a new life within the framework of Sharia, which is at odds with the secular state. Their supporters are called differently, Wahhabis, Islamists, Salafists, fundamentalists, etc., but they all have the same goal – the creation of a caliphate.
Religiosity is on the rise in Central Asian societies, especially among young people. This would not be a bad thing if their radical religious views were not increasing. When you go to a mosque and believe in something, that’s one thing. But when you participate in the work of a party or an organization, participate in a process that is ‘useful in this world and will do you good in the life to come’, that’s something else entirely. And the second one is presented and perceived among Islamist supporters as more correct.
The ground for the growth of radical ideology in the countries of Central Asia remains favorable. Because, according to their supporters, the secular model of state building in the countries of the region has not succeeded in economic development, in improving people’s lives, or in creating a just state system.
The recruiters, who continue to enroll their supporters on the Internet, try to attract the new members stating that ‘social justice has disappeared in their countries’. So they brought up Islamic justice as it is remembered in history. ‘What is wrong with the Islamic State? We will bring you justice according to the canons of Sharia,’ they said.
Meanwhile, the idea of building a state based on Sharia law has historical roots here. The Central Asian republics have always been part of the Islamic world and have felt it. Except for the Soviet period, when the region was virtually excluded from the pan-Islamic agenda.
Today, Arab countries are allocating millions of dollars to build mosques and madrassas and to Islamize the countries to bring the Central Asian countries back to the land of the historical Islamic caliphate.
It is likely that after the defeat of the outlawed IS, a large ideological base was left behind, and various logistical routes and a wide network of recruiters were created. Today another slogan is heard among recruiters to extremist organizations – “for a just state and a decent life”. This slogan bears a serious threat to the secularity of Central Asian countries. It is working and can awaken sleeper cells, and then other external factors will come into play.
That is why we are talking about the danger of the impact of events in Syria on the countries of Central Asia. If the supporters of the global caliphate gain great influence in Syria, there is a risk of a return to the period when IS tried to impose its ideology on the whole world. But there is also a risk that even if the new Syrian government starts expelling radical fighters from their country, there is no telling where they will go next and where they will realize their ideas and criminal plans.
To counter these risks, Central Asian governments should strengthen efforts to prevent the growth of radicalization in their countries by focusing on prevention, improving education, both secular and religious, human rights and social justice for all segments of the population. What is needed now is a focus on bringing the whole of society together and developing effective strategies to combat radical Islam. Without this, the risks for the secular governments of Central Asia will only increase.