Almost every third region of Kazakhstan has water deficit. And it is getting even worse: climate change and active economic activity of people lead to depletion of river resources. Let’s review how water deficit turns into the national security threat and if the water shortage can be eliminated.
Our deficits
The Institute of Geography and Water Security of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan estimates the total annual river discharge of Kazakhstan as 102.3 cubic kilometres*.
Note that the river discharge (amount of water that flows through a riverbed over the year) is the first indicator of the volume of freshwater resources.This estimation is nothing else but the average value for the period from 1974 to 2015.
The point is that the river discharge data for any given year carries little information. And it is because the indicator varies greatly in time: there can be dry, average water, and wet years.Compared to many countries, Kazakhstan has fewer river resources. According to the World Factbook by the Central Intelligence Agency of the USA prepared in 2020, the republic was the 66th among 185 with this indicator. The shortage of water resources is related to the sharp continental climate, whose peculiarities are scanty precipitation and hot summer.
The river discharge is formed and used within hydroeconomic basins (HEB). There are eight HEBs in Kazakhstan, their names are based on major rivers and basins that form them. The problem is that shared river resources are distributed among the basins quite unequally.
61 per cent of total volume is located mainly in the east and southeast of the country, in Yertis and Balkhash-Alakol basins. The situation in the south looks this way: the Aral-Syrdarya basin ensures only 18 per cent of the water flow, while Shu-Talas basin – only 4 per cent. In the west, only 11 per cent form in the Zhaiyk-Caspian basin.
In the north and in the centre, the situation is even worse. The Yesil, Tobyl-Torgai and Nura-Sarysu basins, located in these parts of Kazakhstan, have only 6 per cent of joint reserves as estimated of Yesil, Togyl-Torgai and Nura-Sarysuu village, according to the estimations of the Institute of Geography and Water Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The unequal distribution of the total discharge is half of the trouble. Another part of the problem is that a half of renewable freshwater resources of Kazakhstan is formed from the water inflow from neighbouring countries. All major rivers in the country originate abroad: Irtysh (Yertis) and Ili in China, Syrdarya in Uzbekistan, Ural (Zhaiyk) in Russia, Shu and Talas in Kyrgyzstan.
Syrdarya is the only major crossborder river that flows in several countries and then ‘enters’ Kazakhstan. Although it originates from Uzbekistan, about 50 per cent of its water come from rivers Naryn and Karadarya located in Kyrgyzstan. Also, Syrdarya crosses Tajikistan on its way to Kazakhstan.
In specific cases, the share of the crossborder river flow seriously exceeds the average level across the country. For example, 90 per cent (!) of water comes from outside to the Aral-Syrdarya HEB. And it is, by the way, the third largest basin. Smaller Zhaiyk-Caspian (80%) and Shu-Talas (75%) HEBs depend strongly on the inflow from adjoining countries. Meanwhile, indicators of the full-flowing basins differ significantly. The Balkhash-Alakol basin has 47 per cent of external water inflow, while the Yertis basin has only 25 per cent.
Enough so far
Yes, Kazakhstan is not rich in river resources, on top of that, the resources are spread unequally and only half of them are formed within the country, while particular basins almost entirely depend on neighbours.
Nevertheless, freshwater is enough so far. According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), the baseline water stress is estimated in Kazakhstan as medium-high (20% to 40%). In 2019, the country ranked 58th out of 164 in this indicator. The most water-stressed countries in the global ranking were Bahrain, Cyprus and Kuwait (over 80 per cent).The country is facing high water stress when it uses over 40 percent of available inventory. Given this intensity of water intake, the resources have no time to restore naturally, and thus they run dry. Moreover, the said value shows that water demand exceeds supply. If over 80 per cent of resources are used, it means extreme water deficit or water crisis.
Based on the data provided by the institute of geography and water security, water stress in Kazakhstan amounts to 24 per cent – 25 cubic kilometres are used out of 102.3 cubic kilometres, which coincides with the WRI indicator. However, the picture is not the same everywhere. The excessive load on river discharge is in Aral-Syrdarya and Shu-Talas basins, where 57 per cent of freshwater stock is being withdrawn. Meanwhile, water stress in Nura-Sarysu basin reaches as high as 88 per cent.
What we have de facto
A complex situation in the three hydroeconomic basins does not mean that their population, which is nearly 7 million people, suffers from lack of water. (7 million is the population of the six regions, most or all territory of which belongs to Aral-Syrdarya, Shu-Talas and Nura-Sarysu basins. The estimates contain Turkestan, Kyzylorda, Zhambyl, Karaganda, Ulytau regions, and the city of Shymkent. The data source is the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan.)
Economic sectors that use water in large quantities suffer from water deficit in the first place.
“Farmers that grow moisture-intensive crops face the clear water deficit in Kazakhstan seasonally. They feel the short-term shortage of moisture (10 to 20 days) in July and August, when there is the peak of irrigation,” said Kuralai Yakhiyeva, leading expert of the Scientific Information Centre of the Inter-State Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia.
According to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, agriculture formed 60 per cent of total water withdrawal in 2020-2022. Moreover, Turkestan, Kyzylorda and Zhambyl regions (Aral-Syrdarya, Shu-Talas basins) have a half of active regular irrigation areas. Over 95 per cent of water stock in these basins is used to meet the needs of agriculture.
In turn, the industry of Kazakhstan ‘consumes’ 24 per cent of water withdrawal. Karaganda and Ulytau regions, which form the Nura-Sarysu basin, are industrial regions.
As to the household sector, it uses only 4 per cent of withdrawn water stock.
The share of public water supply is comparatively small. However, water supply interruptions take place, which sometimes result in impromptu rallies. One of the recent cases took place in Aktau (Mangistau region) in June 2024. Residents of the 19th microrayon blocked traffic because there was no tap water in some houses.
“Restricted distribution of predicted resources and availability of known reserves appropriate for food water supply make Atyrau, North Kazakhstan, West Kazakhstan, and Mangistau regions, as well as particular districts of Akmola, Pavlodar, Aktyubinsk, Kyzylorda and Karaganda regions, poorly and partially supplied regions,” said Nurlan Aldamzharov, Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan to CABAR.asia.
It follows from his reply that the reason of shortages is not the general shortage of water resources, but their absence near residential areas, mainly rural ones. There are 785 such areas. Their population is 1.8 million people. They receive drinking water via 80 group water supply systems.
The problem is that group water supply systems break due to age. A vivid example is the Nura group water supply system, a single source of water supply for 24 residential areas of Akmola region. So far, the operational life of the system has been exceeded twice, while the level of depreciation has reached 90 per cent.
Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, deserves special attention. The problem here, just like in other residential areas, is poor supply of river discharge resources. Moreover, interruptions in water supply have been caused by decay and shortage of engineering capacities.
1.4 million local residents get water from the reservoir that is meant for 500 thousand people only. In 2023, mass water cuts began in the capital. 0.1 cubic kilometres of water had to be diverted to Yesil and Nura rivers from the Saptayev channel to feed the reservoir. However, 2024 turned out to be a high-water year – the entire reservoir was filled by floodwater, so there were no repeated cuts.
Mangistau is a similar case. The region is located in a semi-desert zone and has no direct access to freshwater resources. Water supply of 66 per cent of its population (Aktau and three rural districts) depends on desalination of the Caspian Sea water. The population receives water in summer according to the schedule due to the shortage of desalination capacities.
A weak spot
So, is there a water deficit in Kazakhstan? It depends on the point of view. In terms of the whole country, there is no deficit – the result of dividing all withdrawn freshwater by the total river discharge does not look dismal. However, certain hydroeconomic basins, where water demand significantly exceeds water supply, do face the deficit.
It refers to Aral-Syrdarya, Shu-Talas and Nura-Sarysu HEBs that cover six regions of the country. A high level of water stress here is related to the overintensive water withdrawal, negligible own resources, and a strong dependence on external inflows.
The situation will only get worse because the amount of water in rivers decreases under the influence of climate change and high anthropogenic load. Institute of Geography and Water Resources expects that by 2030 the mean annual flow will drop by 2.9 cubic kilometres, to 99.4 cubic kilometres due to both factors. Moreover, the dynamics will be negative due to the decreased inflow from neighbouring countries. On the other hand, water use, according to forecasts, will increase up to 29.7 cubic kilometres. So, water stress can reach 30 per cent compared to 24 per cent today.
Thus, the deficient Aral-Syrdarya and Shu-Talas hydroeconomic basins seem to feel the water shortage more strongly. The drop in the transboundary inflow will do no good to the Nura-Sarysu basin: development of Karaganda and Ulytau regions that are within the basin depends much on the uninterrupted operation of the Kanysh Satpayev channel.
It is clear that a heavier deficit will have a negative impact on main water users – agriculture and industry. Scientists warn: a high water stress can lead to failures in the programmes of economic and social development. This, in turn, involves economic slowdown and social unrest.
Water deficit has other risks for the national security, namely, emergence of new hotspots of environmental instability and so-called water wars. Moreover, the last risk is quite real. According to the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, Security, there were at least 15 interstate conflicts from 1990 to 2022 in the region, including armed ones. The interests of Kazakhstan were involved in the five of them.
“A considerable part of the Central Asian people reside in rural areas and practice agriculture. So, the question of their water supply is a vital one. A growing water deficit that cannot be resolved quickly and in combination with unsettled border issues can lead to a massive explosion and new conflicts in the region,” said political analyst Dosym Satpayev.
Untimely water supply
Neighbouring countries have a serious impact on the level of water supply of Kazakhstan. The point is that reservoirs and dams are located upstream of crossborder rivers and they can either increase or decrease the volume of water discharged downstream, as necessary. In other words, the water flow is under control.
Thus, the aggregate capacity of the four major reservoirs in the basin of River Syrdarya in the territory of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is 27.5 square kilometres (Toktogul, Bakhri Tochik, Charvak, Kempir-Abad). Two large reservoirs in the Chinese part of River Ili basin – Kapshagai and Zharyntai – can accumulate 4.5 cubic kilometres together. Iriklinskoye Reservoir, the largest one in the basin of River Ural in Russia, contains 3.3 cubic kilometres. The total volume of Orto-Tokoi and Kirov reservoirs in the Kyrgyz sector of Shu-Talas basin is equal to 1 cubic kilometre.
Keep in mind large channels, whose operation is also related to the river flow control. Two such facilities – from River Irtysh to cities of Karamai and Urumqi – operate in Xingjian Uighur Autonomous Region of China, whose territory is actively developing since 1990. In full capacity, they can ensure diversion of 6.3 cubic kilometres of water per year.
According to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, China is the only country with which Kazakhstan has shared rivers and no regulatory framework on water apportionment. Moreover, China is not a member to the Helsinki Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses. The countries usually make agreements on water apportionment to avoid conflicts and disputes when distributing limited resources.
Agreements guarantee that each party gets a fair share of water. For example, the resources of River Chu are distributed in the following proportion – 58 per cent remain in Kyrgyzstan, 42 per cent flow to Kazakhstan.
Conditions of existing agreements on water apportionment are being observed – generally, Kazakhstan receives as much water as it needs. Everything would be good but water is supplied with a big delay.
“Other countries provide us with water in terms of annual volume, but they don’t in terms of intra-annual volume. They give us water in winter, when we do not need it. And in summer, when we need it, they don’t give water. Why does the Shu-Talas basin discharge water in winter? They have hydropower industry – they process water and discharge it. The same happens in Uzbekistan. In Aral-Syrdarya basin, they keep all three channels within limits in annual terms. But they do not keep within limits within a year,” said Aisulu Tursunova, head of the water resources laboratory of the Institute of Geography and Water Resources.
Recently, the countries strive for cooperation because it is easier to counter the common challenge – climate change, which transforms river regimes. As a result, high-water seasons occur earlier and last longer, which causes floods that cause great damage to the national economy. But floods is only one side of the medal, another one is drought. They spur the countries into revising water use schedules, making own interests the cornerstone. And it is normal.
“Our neighbours need water, too. They are the source of water. They can give two cubic kilometres instead of five, or give nothing at all. How can we catch the interest of other countries so that that give us water? Generally speaking, we cannot. Unfortunately, even the threat of the environmental disaster that will lead to Lake Balkhash running dry can hardly be the motivation. China has its own development programme, which is not focused on our country. Lake Aral was dried when they developed cotton manufacturing. We have seen the tragedy. No one was stopped by it back then. Why would they now?” Aisulu Tursunova asked a rhetorical question.
Count on oneself
A logical way out of the situation is to count on oneself. But there are big problems with that. If we look at the load on local resources separately, it can be terrifying. Thus, water stress in Aral-Syrdarya basin is almost 500 per cent. It means that five times more water is used than is formed inside the HEB. In Shu-Talas basin the indicator is 210 per cent, in Nura-Sarysu basin – 156 per cent. Zhaiyk-Caspian HEB has a high indicator, 77 per cent.
The load on local resources turns out to be tremendous because of wasteful water use. It is a major problem for the agriculture, where over a half of withdrawn volume is lost when water is supplied to irrigation fields because of the worn-out infrastructure of the irrigation farming.
However, the level of introduction of water-efficient technology is as low as 3 per cent. So, there is no wonder why water productivity is low in agriculture. Generally speaking, the national economy needs three times more water per one dollar of gross domestic product than Russia or the United States, and six times more water than Australia.
“There should be strategic planning of all water economy system, which must focus on its potential. First, we focus on demand, and then on supply. In fact, it’s the nature that offers. Conceptually, demand and supply must work together,” said Aisulu Tursunova.
Authorities of Kazakhstan obviously see the problem. Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan was established in September 2023. So far, a draft of the new Water Code was submitted to the Mazhlis (lower house of parliament). Priority is given to efficient use of water resources, intensive introduction of water-efficient technology and water reuse system. Along with that, the Concept of development of the water resources management system of the Republic of Kazakhstan was approved for 2024-2030. By 2028, the document contemplates implementation of 5.1 thousand events with total cost of 3.34 trillion tenge. One of the main expected results is accumulation of extra 2.5 cubic kilometres of water due to the construction of reservoirs. By the way, this measure will decrease dependence on the transboundary flow by 25 per cent.
It is difficult to judge whether the measures will lead to the expected result. According to Bulat Yesekin, expert in ecopolitics, climate and water resources, construction of new reservoirs can solve the problem of water deficit in a short run, while it will only aggravate it in the long run.
“The reason of water deficit is the disruption of local and global water cycles. The amount of water remains the same, but we with our actions interfere with natural processes, which are the basis of water supply to economy, population, nature. We see rivers and lakes not as whole living bodies, but as ditch with water and industrial ponds,” the speaker said.
In turn, Dosym Satpayev believes that a serious obstacle on the way to implementation of ambitious plans can be corruption and negligence: both traditionally hinder the solution of strategic issues in Kazakhstan, including the ones concerning water.
“They can spend the money. But afterwards it can turn out that a part of money was stolen, and whatever was built was built with poor quality. Unfortunately, it happens quite often. Just recall a recent case when officials of Zhambyl region were tried for misappropriation of funds that were allocated to improve the quality of drinking water,” the political analyst said.
Forecasts about how events will develop after 2030 do not exist in Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, the World Resources Institute expects that by 2050 water stress in the country will still be at the mean high level (20 to 40 per cent), and by 2080 the level will be high (40 to 80 per cent). In other words, Kazakhstan risks having overall water deficit in the long run. According to the UN estimates, the country may face the significant deficit of water resources at the rate of 50 per cent of the need by 2040. Time will show how efficient will be the measures and if Kazakhstan manages to avoid the worst scenario caused by intensified water deficit.
Note:
*Contemporary estimate of the mean annual river flow in Kazakhstan, as well as the forecast of its change by 2030 is based on the initial version of the government decree of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated February 5, 2024 “On approval of the Concept of development of the water resources management system of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2024-2030.” By the time of material preparation, the document was not amended.
Main photo: Vlast.kz/Zhanara Karimova