In the last decade, Kazakhstan has developed a sustainable trend of negative external migration. From 2012, according to the Bureau for National Statistics of Kazakhstan, 162 thousand people moved to the country, and twice as large, 333 thousand citizens, left Kazakhstan for permanent residence. These statistical data do not show several dozen thousand Kazakhstanis who live in emigration for study or work.
To stop the brain exodus, to find points of influence on those who wish to leave or to protect those working abroad, the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of people has developed the new Concept of migration policy of Kazakhstan for 2022-2026. It was published on the official government website “Open laws and regulations”. What is the point? Let’s see the cards.
Emigration from Kazakhstan has a distinctive trend. Most of those moving to other countries are residents of particular regions (Eastern Kazakhstan, Kostanai, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan and Karaganda regions). Middle-aged people with higher or secondary education are leaving. CABAR.asia wrote in detail about the reasons for departure, structure of emigrants by ethnicity.
Departure of able-bodied people is a loss for the regions. They have a developed industry, they need work force. Negative migration balance only contributes to the problem of under-population in these territories and shortage in the labour market. At the same time, southern regions of the country (Almaty, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, Zhambyl regions) are densely populated regions with nearly 60 per cent of the population, and they are considered regions with excess working population.
“According to forecasts, if the current demographic and migration trends continue, the population of northern regions of Kazakhstan will decrease by 2050 by 600 thousand people, while the population of southern regions will increase by 1.6 million people. As a result, the population density in the south by 2050 will be four times the density in the north,” according to the document.
To overcome domestic regional disproportion, the national government adopted the voluntary south-to-north relocation programme ‘Yenbek’ five years ago. It existed until 2021, and in 2022 it was revised. According to the programme, those moving to the northern regions from the south get assistance locally, are paid compensations for their relocation, pay apartment rental for one year, are provided with land plots, leased property with the right of redemption, are assisted with retraining or preferential loans for opening of their businesses.
Based on the results of the last five-year plan, the programme failed to show significant results. According to the data of Ministry of Labour of Kazakhstan, which were specified in the text of the Concept, 32 thousand people relocated from southern regions to northern ones for these years, of which nine thousand able-bodied citizens were employed. This figure is not high at the level of unregulated internal migration as over 780 thousand people relocate within the country per year (data of the Bureau for National Statistics of Kazakhstan for 2021).
To change the situation, the Concept provides for new stimulating instruments both for future internal migrants and for their future employers. In particular, it suggests compensating the costs of buying housing for in-migrants to companies. The new interface of the electronic labour market enbek.kz will help employers search for employees from southern regions on their own and take them as members of the programme.
No, they cannot. Neither in terms of quantity, nor in terms of “human capital quality.” For example, in 2021, 17.5 thousand ethnic Kazakhs returned to the country and received the status of ‘kandas’ (from Kazakh, ‘kandas’ means fellow countryman). 11 per cent of them had higher education. Whereas, 32.2 thousand people left the country last year, 67 per cent of which were Russians.
According to the analysis performed by experts of the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of Kazakhstan for the Concept, in the last five years, the proportion of emigrants with higher or vocational education reached 70 per cent of the total number of people leaving the country.
“The situation with the increasing number of emigrants with higher education is getting worse because the number of highly qualified immigrants coming to the country is steadily decreasing. The number of people with degrees relocating to Kazakhstan in the last decade has decreased twice and amounted to 1.9 thousand people,” according to the document.
Yes. According to the Migration Policy Concept for 2022-2026, the ethnic migration management system will be improved. Officials intend to pay attention to the employment of the ‘kandas’, their integration into local communities. The special fund of compatriots support ‘Otandastar’ is going to work more actively. Its specialists will be spreading information about the programme of relocation to Kazakhstan in Kazakh communities in various countries. The procedure of citizenship of Kazakhstan is planned to be simplified for ethnic Kazakhs deciding to return to their historical homeland.
Among financial incentives to be offered to returnees are quotas to universities for ethnic Kazakhs living abroad, professional retraining. Special Centres for Adaptation and Integration of Returnees will be opened in the next two years in Akmola, Eastern Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, Kostanai, Northern Kazakhstan regions.
Two large groups of Kazakhstanis temporarily living abroad can be highlighted. The first one is students. According to UNESCO, 89 thousand Kazakhstanis are currently studying at universities of various countries. 80 per cent of them (71.3 thousand) study in Russia. Many of them are potential emigrants.
“The main stimuli for studying abroad among the young people of Kazakhstan are higher quality and status of foreign education, for some portion these are further employment and living abroad. Here comes the reverse side of educational migration – loss of some intellectual potential by the country,” according to analysts of the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of Kazakhstan who worked over the draft Concept.
The Mazhilis of the national parliament repeatedly discussed this problem. Deputies have repeatedly asked the country’s leadership to take measures to reduce educational migration, which turns into emigration.
To increase the level of higher education in Kazakhstan and stop educational migration, President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev decided to open branches of some top-ranking Russian universities in Kazakhstan. At the end of February 2022, education ministers of the two countries, Askhat Aimagambetov and Valery Falkov, signed a special agreement on this issue. It was published on the website of information-legal system of rules and regulations of Kazakhstan on February 23. It contains main requirements of opening of Russian universities’ branches in Kazakhstan. However, the list of universities has not been approved so far because negotiations with rectors are still in progress.
The second large group of Kazakhstanis living abroad is labour migrants. They go to Russia, Greece, Turkey, United States, Germany, Belarus for work without renouncing the citizenship of Kazakhstan.
The official statistics of migrant workers from Kazakhstan working in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (mostly, Russia – author’s note) is not monitored. The EAEU has a general labour market and Kazakhstanis do not have to obtain any special work permits to work in Russia. According to indirect data provided by the authors of the Concept, the number of migrant workers from Kazakhstan in Russia has increased three times in the last eight years – up to 111 thousand people. The significant volume of labour migration of Kazakhstanis in border areas of Russia (Orenburg, Novosibirsk, Omsk oblasts, Altai Krai, Altai Republic) is unrevealed. These people can decide anytime to relocate to the country where they have jobs, temporary housing, have adapted.
The new migration policy does not contemplate that Kazakhstan would introduce some bureaucratic prohibitions for the departure of Kazakhstanis abroad for work. The key task before the agency is to protect the rights of migrant workers in other countries, to encourage international recruitment within legal framework. To this end, the government of Kazakhstan is intending to enter into bilateral agreements on ensuring labour and social rights of migrant workers with several countries. Until the end of 2022, the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of Kazakhstan should open the Migration Committee that will be in charge of legal protection of migrants.