“The synergy of cooperation between Tashkent and Nur-Sultan can increase the likelihood of achieving stability in conflict-generating Afghanistan,” – Elena Izteleuova (Kazakhstan), an independent researcher and member of the CABAR.asia school of analytics, writes about Afghanistan’s place on the agendas of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
The problem of Afghanistan has affected all the countries of Central Asia, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It is noteworthy that in December 2021, the two countries signed a declaration on allied relations between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Kazakhstan, which brings bilateral cooperation to a new level. In the declaration, the parties “stressed the need to preserve trade, economic, transport, logistics and energy ties, as well as to provide comprehensive international humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan, with the UN playing a central role.” This indicates the readiness to further coordinate the approaches of Tashkent and Nur-Sultan in the Afghan direction.
The course of Shavkat Mirziyoyev towards Afghanistan
Afghanistan is a neighboring republic with Uzbekistan. The borders between these states are the shortest, but at the same time – the most protected. From the very beginning of gaining independence, there have been threats for Uzbekistan from Afghanistan, such as drug trafficking, arms trade, and terrorism. Despite all these threats, the government of Uzbekistan tried to resolve the Afghan issue peacefully, although it treated its southern neighbor with caution. Nevertheless, Uzbekistan acted as a dialogue platform for solving intra-Afghan problems, helped in the implementation of various economic projects, supplied electricity, and also built a network of roads connecting the regions of Afghanistan.
Sh. Mirziyoyev’s predecessor, Islam Karimov, largely kept himself isolated from Afghanistan, although at the international level he put forward a number of initiatives aimed at stabilizing and establishing peace in this country. It is worth mentioning such initiatives as “6+2”, “6+3”, the creation of a permanent seminar on regional security under the auspices of the UN, etc.
With the coming to power of the new president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, within the framework of the Development Strategy for 2017-2021, which talks about building mutually beneficial and good-neighborly relations with neighboring republics and strengthening stability and security in the region, relations between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan have moved to a new level and have started to develop more dynamically. Uzbekistan adheres to the same principle in its updated concept of foreign policy: Tashkent will continue its pragmatic and constructive policy with Afghanistan. Such sequence of events does not mean that the new president denies potential threats from Afghanistan, he just began to view the neighboring state from a different angle, a more loyal one. In a short period of time, the leader of the state managed to achieve an increase in trade turnover between the countries (Graph 1). Graph 1 shows how exports and total trade turnover increase every year. Shavkat Mirziyoyev has high hopes for the Afghan market, and by the end of 2023, it is planned to increase the trade turnover to 2 billion USD. Uzbekistan began to supply cars, food, and pharmaceutical products to the neighboring country.
Ties in the energy, cultural, humanitarian and transport spheres have noticeably strengthened. Since 2018, Afghan applicants have the opportunity to get an education, and specialists have an opportunity to improve their qualifications in an educational Center specially open for Afghan citizens under the Ministry of Higher and Secondary Specialized Education of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the city of Termez. The center was opened in accordance with the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated November 13, 2017 "On organizing the activities of an educational center for training Afghan citizens under the Ministry of Higher and Secondary Specialized Education of the Republic of Uzbekistan."[1]
In the first year of study, 110 people entered the Termez Center. In the period from 2018-2019, 96 people received bachelor's degrees from the Tashkent State University of Uzbek Language and Literature named after Alisher Navoi. In 2020, there were 172 students at the center. On November 20, 2020, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the Ministry of Higher Education of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Ministry of Higher and Secondary Specialized Education of the Republic of Uzbekistan, within the framework of which, in addition to the opportunity to study at Uzbek universities, the exchange of educational and methodological materials, the participation of specialists from both states in educational events, and interaction in research work and joint preparation of publications and articles in scientific journals were included.[2]
Such a step and expansion of cooperation will increase the level of education and skills of Afghan citizens and reduce unemployment on Afghan soil. Moreover, educated youth will be more skeptical about the propaganda and activities of extremist and terrorist groups, which will lead to a decrease in the level of terrorism in Afghanistan.
Regular telephone conversations and high-level meetings were another confirmation of the establishment of relations. It is noteworthy to mention the visit of the President of Afghanistan to Uzbekistan in the fall of 2017. During the meeting, the Roadmap for Economic Cooperation was approved, more than 20 documents were signed and 40 joint contracts worth 500 million USD were signed.[3]
The tense situation in the neighboring state is unprofitable for Tashkent, since Afghanistan can open access to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf, which will simplify the ability to deliver Uzbek goods to Chinese and European markets, as well as improve the economic situation in all Central Asian states. In this connection, the government of Uzbekistan contributes to the peaceful settlement of the conflict in Afghanistan. On this basis, at the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan, 2 international conferences were held. One of which "Peace process, security cooperation and regional interactions" took place in the spring of 2018. The second large-scale international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Relations. Challenges and Opportunities” was held in July 2021. The conferences were attended by representatives of Asian and European states, international and regional organizations. As a result of the conferences, the Tashkent Declaration and the Joint Agreement were signed. The conferences held contributed to the further development of cooperation between the states of Central and South Asia.
During the conference, a meeting of the C5+1 platform was held, where the participating states discussed, among other things, the threats and challenges that have arisen in connection with the unstable situation in Afghanistan.
However, in August 2021, a turning point came in relations between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, and with the region as a whole: from a state of opportunities, Afghanistan again became a source of threats.[4] The reason for this was the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the seizure of power by the Taliban (a banned terrorist organization in Central Asia - ed. note).
Cooperation projects between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan
The government of Uzbekistan has already made it clear that Tashkent in any case will establish contact with the new leadership of Afghanistan and there are a number of reasons for this. First, Tashkent has no choice. The Taliban dominate in Afghanistan and spoiled relations between states are a direct military threat for Uzbekistan and, naturally, Shavkat Mirziyoyev will do everything possible to prevent this.
Secondly, Uzbekistan has economic benefits - the export of Uzbek products to the markets of Afghanistan, the implementation of trans-regional projects of Uzbekistan, the expansion of transport links through the territory of Afghanistan. For example, at the end of October 2021, negotiations began on a railway running through Afghan soil. The project cost is estimated at 5 billion USD. The road will connect the EU countries, the Russian Federation, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and the countries of Southeast Asia. Also, negotiations are underway between the EU and Uzbekistan to create a humanitarian hub in the city of Termez. The EU's consent to participate in this issue confirms the softening of Brussels' position on Afghanistan and interest in further cooperation with Uzbekistan in establishing peace and order on Afghan soil.
On the one hand, if Uzbekistan implements all of its trans-Afghan projects and assists in the settlement of the Afghan issue, Shavkat Mirziyoyev can undoubtedly count on leadership and even greater recognition in the region, which will lead to an improvement in the already good relations with the fraternal republics, and with the world's major actors. Thus, Uzbekistan will become a key state in the Central Asian region due to its active political position and economic activity.
On the other hand, is there an opportunity to translate the Tashkent plans for Afghanistan into reality? At the moment, this is very doubtful. It will take months for the Taliban to be accepted by the world community as a full-fledged member on the world stage, and not as a “failed state”. And the Taliban will need an effort to maintain power without allowing a civil war.
In any case, Uzbekistan needs to adhere to its position on the Afghan issue, since Uzbekistan calls not to isolate itself from Afghanistan, but, on the contrary, to develop a unified approach in communicating with the new government and help them in building a modern state that meets all international requirements and standards. Moreover, the countries should continue to implement joint projects. One of such important projects is the construction of a new electric transmission line in Afghanistan. The agreement on its construction was signed back in 2017. The construction itself was started in 2018 by the Saudi company ACWA Power. In addition, on October 20, 2020, in the presence of the government of Uzbekistan, an agreement was signed between Afghanistan and the Asian Development Bank to finance the construction of the Surkhan-Puli-Khumri electric transmission line. Under the agreement, 110 million ISD was allocated.
For over 15 years, Tashkent has been serving as an electricity supplier to Kabul. In 2018, the electricity price was reduced by 35%. The launch of a new electric transmission line will make it possible to increase the supply of electricity from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan by 70%. Thus, having solved the problem not only with power outages in rural areas, but also will open up new opportunities in opening enterprises and creating new jobs. At the same time, the power transmission line will connect Kabul to the unified energy system of Central Asia, which will provide an opportunity for other Central Asian countries to supply electricity to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India within the framework of the CASA-1000 project.[5]
Kazakhstan's position on Afghanistan
Diplomatic relations between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan were established on February 12, 1992. Trade and economic cooperation were actively developing between the states. Agricultural and industrial goods, and natural gas were supplied from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan. Mainly agricultural products were imported to Kazakhstan, such as grapes, potatoes, fresh and dried fruits. The dynamics of the development of trade and economic cooperation can be traced in Graph 2.
It is clear that for Kazakhstan, as well as for Uzbekistan, the construction of transport corridors will open up new economic opportunities. At the moment, if we compare the total trade between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with Afghanistan, then Uzbekistan's indicators are much higher. (Graph 3)
Kazakhstan is not a bordering state with Afghanistan, and accordingly, there is no direct threat to national security that could come from the Taliban. Kazakhstan has no need for highlight declarations, and thus it has adopted a wait-and-see attitude until the situation is cleared up. While for Uzbekistan one of the main tasks at the moment is the settlement of the issue in Afghanistan. Despite its restrained position, Kazakhstan, like Uzbekistan, continues to provide humanitarian assistance to the citizens of the long-suffering country and acts as a peacekeeper, since the situation in Afghanistan can directly affect and worsen the geopolitical situation throughout Central Asia.
Kazakhstan has always supported the peacekeeping intentions of Uzbekistan and itself comes up with similar initiatives. For example, on October 5, 1992, at the 47th session of the UN General Assembly, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan announced the idea of convening a Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia (CICMA). The main goal of the CICMA is to create friendly relations between member states, including Afghanistan. Security through cooperation - this is the essence of the CICMA approach and Kazakhstan is ready to use the platform of the Conference in the Afghan case.[6]
It should be noted that cultural and humanitarian cooperation was actively developing between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan. Kazakhstan was one of the first to deal with the humanitarian issue of Afghanistan, for a long time it financed programs to support Afghanistan. For example, in 2009, the head of the Republic of Kazakhstan approved the State Educational Program, for which the government allocated 50 million USD. In the period 2010-2017, more than one thousand people have been trained. To this date, there are 23 universities of the Republic of Kazakhstan that teach Afghan students. Despite the fact that the state educational program was completed in 2017, an interdepartmental protocol was signed in 2018. Within the framework of this document, Afghan students had the opportunity to come to Kazakhstan to receive education until 2021. Moreover, Afghan teachers can improve their qualifications. This opportunity was presented to 28 teachers. They were trained at Kazakh National University named after Al-Farabi at the expense of the World Bank.
Despite the fact that Kazakhstan did not officially recognize the new government of Afghanistan, diplomatic relations between them began to improve. In mid-October, a special delegation from Kazakhstan arrived in the city of Kabul on a working visit. During the meeting, issues of further trade and economic cooperation and the supply of humanitarian aid were discussed. The possibility of continuing the construction of transport corridors, in which both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are interested, is being considered. The implementation of these projects will open up new economic opportunities for both states.
Kazakhstan, like other states, stands for the creation of an inclusive state and is waiting for the fulfillment of all the promises made by the Taliban.
Attitude towards Afghanistan through the prism of two-state strategies
The priorities in achieving peace and order in the region for both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as mentioned above, coincide. One of the main priorities of Kazakhstan's foreign policy, according to Strategy 2050, is the global strengthening of regional and national security. Kazakhstan intends to further develop relations with Asian countries, as well as assist in stabilizing the uneasy security situation in the region. The best way to stabilize Central Asia is through intra-regional cooperation. Together with all interested partners and neighboring states, Kazakhstan intends to seek an early political settlement and rehabilitation of Afghanistan.[7]
Uzbekistan also voices ways of solving the problems of Afghanistan in its main documents. In the Strategy for the Development of New Uzbekistan, the main tasks invariably remain the strengthening of good-neighborliness and strategic partnership, primarily with the countries of Central Asia and neighboring states. Uzbekistan promises to provide all possible assistance to Afghanistan in restoring peace and stability, preventing an economic and humanitarian crisis in this country. Shavkat Mirziyoyev has repeatedly stressed that Afghanistan is an integral part of Central Asia.[8]
This controversial view has sparked debate among experts, journalists, and politicians, as it in some way challenges the long-held view that Central Asia includes only five countries without Afghanistan, and the latter is part of South Asia. The inclusion of Afghanistan in the Central Asian region will obviously bring additional confusion and bewilderment to the already unfinished integration process in Central Asia. Therefore, it is important to distinguish in what sense Afghanistan's belonging to Central Asia is asserted - only in the sense of the cultural and historical closeness of peoples or the political sense of the unification of Afghanistan with the countries of Central Asia.
Thus, both from the economic and from the point of view of security, both states are interested in an early settlement of the issue and are making efforts for this.
Uzbekistan is actively promoting its position through the UN. In July of this year, the leader of Uzbekistan came up with an initiative to adopt a special resolution of the UN General Assembly on strengthening the interconnection between Central and South Asia.
In September 2021, the President of Uzbekistan addressed the 76th session of the UN General Assembly. He called on states not to leave Afghanistan alone with the existing problems. Shavkat Mirziyoyev is convinced that the growing threats, conflicts, and transnational challenges in the world require further strengthening of international cooperation. A solid foundation for work in this direction was laid by the New UN Program on Combating Drugs in Central Asia signed in Tashkent on November 24, 2021. Also, Uzbekistan with the UN Office of the UNODC intend to develop a Joint Anti-Drug Action Plan covering the countries of Central and South Asia.
Kazakhstan is also actively working with the UN to overcome the humanitarian and food crisis in Afghanistan. The UN is supporting Kazakhstan to increase humanitarian aid. The UN also supports the Kazakh initiative to create a logistics hub in Almaty for the delivery of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. It is noteworthy that due to the aggravated situation in Afghanistan, the UN, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) moved their offices from Kabul to Almaty.
On November 23, 2021, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan met with the Director General of the UN Office in Vienna. During the meeting, issues of cooperation in combating drug trafficking, organized crime, cybercrime, terrorism, and corruption were discussed. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the key role of the UN and supported the active work of the organization in international affairs. Also, Kazakhstan confirmed its intentions to cooperate with the UN in the areas of sustainable development, security, and stability, especially in the current situation in Afghanistan.
Conclusions
The distancing of Afghanistan and its ignorance by the world community can aggravate the situation not only in this country, but throughout the entire Central Asian region. For faster recognition of the Taliban by the world community, it is necessary to form a kind of dialogue platform for negotiations, where it will be possible to come to a general consensus between world actors and the Taliban, since the new Afghan government wants to be involved in world political and economic processes. However, despite the desire for recognition of the Taliban in the world community, they are being slow in fulfilling the conditions set before them.
In addition, internecine clashes and attempts to seize power within the coalition are not ruled out, which may slow down the recognition process. The new leadership of Afghanistan promises to stop drug trafficking, but due to the freezing of all their assets in the West, most of the population, left without means of subsistence, may go over to the side of ISIS, thereby further strengthening this extremist group. In addition, there are more than 20 terrorist groups in Afghanistan that pose a threat not only to bordering states, but throughout Central Asia. Moreover, in the event of controversial issues between the groups and the new government, a new round of conflicts is quite likely, which will entail a number of problems both for the civilian population of Afghanistan and for the entire region as a whole. In this case, the influx of refugees and the intensification of activities of extremist and terrorist groups in neighboring states are not excluded, which is extremely undesirable.
The problem of security and stability in the region concerns all the countries of Central Asia, some to a greater extent, some to a lesser extent, but by virtue of cohesive and collective actions, it is possible to achieve high results and a calm good-neighborly situation in Central Asia. Synergy of cooperation between Tashkent and Nur-Sultan can increase the likelihood of achieving stability in conflict-generating Afghanistan.
Despite the declarations, it is still too early to talk about a long-term and effective strategic partnership between Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan. Nevertheless, work in this direction has already begun: both countries are engaged in a dialogue with the current regime in Afghanistan, although to varying degrees, but economic, cultural, and humanitarian cooperation continues. In addition, support programs for Afghanistan continue from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In general, the positions and priorities of the two countries regarding Afghanistan and the region are similar. In this regard, it is important to continue to work together on the Afghan issue in order to build and strengthen interregional cooperation.
[1] https://mift.uz/ru/news/uzbekiston-va-afoniston-talim-soasida-amkorlik-turisida-memorandum-imzoladi
[2] Ibid
[3] Aripov E. http://www.uzembassy.kz/ru/article/uzbeksko-afganskie-otnosheniya-novyy-etap-dinamichnogo-razvitiya
[4] Tolipov F. Uzbekistan vis-à-vis Afghanistan: New Vision of Old Challenges https://tillotomafoundation.org/f/uzbekistan-vis-%C3%A0-vis-afghanistan-new-vision-of-old-challenges
[5] https://isrs.uz/ru/smti-ekspertlari-sharhlari/afganistan-strategiceskaa-vozmoznost-dla-ekonomiceskogo-razvitia-centralnoj-azii
[6] https://www.caa-network.org/archives/22151/kak-vystraivaetsya-politika-kazahstana-v-novyh-realiyah-afganistana
[7] https://primeminister.kz/assets/media/strategiya-kazakhstan-2050.pdf