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The Future of Central Asian Integration in the Shadow of U.S.-China Confrontation

Eldaniz Gusseinov 24.04.24

Experts Eldaniz Gusseinov of the Heydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies at Ibn Khaldun University and Abakhon Sultonazarov, Regional Director for Central Asia at IWPR, delve into how the U.S. and China are shaping their strategies in Central Asia. They highlight a distinct shift where Central Asian nations are increasingly allowing external powers to guide their institutional processes. The analysis points to significant consequences for the region’s autonomy and its path towards integration, underscoring the importance of recognizing local interests and fostering internal unity to bolster a collective regional stance.

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Central Asia’s Critical Raw Materials: The Next Frontier in Global Power Rivalry?

Eldaniz Gusseinov 03.04.24

Eldaniz Gusseinov of the Ibn Khaldun University’s Heydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies, alongside Abakhon Sultonazarov, IWPR Central Asia Regional Director, contend that the interplay between Central Asia’s ties with the West and China signals the onset of a resource rivalry. Following the upheaval in Ukraine and the ensuing global realignment, the West’s quest for rare earth metals has intensified, aiming to curtail its reliance on Russia and China. Yet, as Western nations pivot to renewables to lessen their dependency on Russian hydrocarbons, they grapple with the potential of becoming more dependent on China, a dominant force in the renewable sector. Central Asia emerges as a pivotal player amidst this, blessed with vast, yet largely untapped, mineral wealth, thereby positioning the region at the heart of the burgeoning competition for essential resources.

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Interest in Central Asia will decline in 2024 – four reasons why

Eldaniz Gusseinov 25.12.23

In this review, we reflect on the tumultuous yet diplomatically active year of 2023, a period marked by heightened global interest and a flurry of significant agreements and initiatives in Central Asia. As we pivot to 2024, a year potentially less auspicious on the global stage, we anticipate a shift in focus towards the domestic policy priorities of world powers. This recalibration, however, comes with its own set of challenges, given the longstanding unresolved issues in Central Asia. While a temporary lull in international conflicts might offer a reprieve, nations in the region must remain alert and strategically prepare for emerging hurdles. The effective management of internal affairs will be pivotal in ensuring continued peace and stability across the region.
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5+1: The Math of Geopolitics in Central Asia

Farkhod Tolipov 07.11.20

“It appears that the Great Game in Central Asia flares up again in much vigorous and quite peculiar manner. The Game is reflected in the mathematical model of geopolitics: it is “5+1=5” for the US, “5+1=6” for Russia, and “5+1=x” for China, so to speak,” Uzbek political analyst Farhod Tolipov writes in his article for CABAR.asia. (more…)

Is Peace in Afghanistan Possible?

Ildar Yakubov 16.07.20

A lack of prior liaison on the eventual form of government in Afghanistan leaves vague prospects for a consensual peace. (more…)