Tajikistan has signaled its intention to develop non-hydropower renewable energy. However, the lack of regulatory mechanisms and unmeasurable goals often undermines these efforts, believes Muhayyo Rahimzoda, a PhD Candidate in Development Studies, specializing in multidimensional poverty, education, and social policy in Central Asia.
Tajikistan, like many other developing countries, faces substantial poverty challenges. At the start of the XXI century, an alarming statistic showed that over 95% of the Tajik population lived in extreme poverty. Since then, significant improvements have been made in the country’s pro-poor development. The poverty rate measured by the national poverty rate (equivalent to US$ 3.2 in 2011 PPP terms) has witnessed a remarkable decline to 26.3% by 2019 (World Bank 2023a) and 21.2% in 2023 (UNICEF, 2023).
Despite significant progress in poverty reduction, Tajikistan remains the most impoverished in the Central Asian region, measured by national poverty rate, international extreme poverty line, and per capita GDP level.
Why the poorest country in Central Asia?
Among the causes of poverty, scholars mention inhospitable geography, colonial legacy, and economic and political instability. In the 1920s, border demarcation, the modern territory of Tajikistan did not even have one industrial centre; rather, 93% of the territory was covered by mountains and terrains with barely populated areas. The geographic condition of the country has been limiting the expansion of the agricultural sector, hindering the development of adequate infrastructure and logistics, particularly in remote areas.
Being one of the member states of the USSR for almost 70 years, the Tajik economy was tightly connected to other Soviet republics. Additionally, the Tajik economy was subsidised by the central Soviet government, making up at least 50% of the republic’s budget.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan lost its primary trading partners and the main source of economic support, leading to one of the most severe crises, marked by an extremely high poverty rate. Between 1991 and 1997, GDP decreased by almost 70% (UN, 2003). In the early 1990s, Tajikistan experienced devastating hyperinflation with prices rising at an annual rate of over 1,000% (International Monetary Fund, 2001).
Tajikistan inherited poor institutions and politics, ultimately facing political instability. The civil war erupted in 1992, leaving behind a devastated economy, thousands of civilian casualties, millions of refugees, and people in extreme poverty. It significantly harmed the already fragile economic infrastructure, resulting in a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production, costing the country 7 billion dollars (International Crisis Group, 2001). In 1992, 80% of Tajikistan’s industry was destroyed (Shemyakina, O. (2011). “The Effect of Armed Conflict on Accumulation of Schooling: Results from Tajikistan.” Journal of Development Economics 95 (2): 186–200. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.05.002 ). In 1994, real GDP was only 37% of that in 1990.
As Tajikistan was heavily dependent on energy and other imports from former Soviet republics, energy shortage was another urgent problem Tajikistan had to cope with in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In Soviet times, the country relied on subsidized diesel generators, making up to 60% of energy (Markandya & Sharma, 2004). Additionally, Tajikistan relied on imports from other Central Asian states to meet its seasonal electricity shortage under the Central Asia Power System (CAPS). With the collapse of the union, Tajikistan faced a severe energy crisis, as diesel deliveries ceased, and each country pursued energy independence.
It is hard to keep the light on in Tajikistan.
In independent time, lack of investment has resulted in infrastructure deterioration, and power outages from a few hours to 12 hours daily have become commonplace. Despite 70% of the population living in rural areas, energy consumption remains lowest there, particularly in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and Khatlon. The country lacks traditional energy resources such as oil and gas, which further exacerbates the energy crisis.
Many rely on biomass (firewood), kerosene, and dried animal dung to heat homes and cook. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (2018), to live through the cold season, a household in Tajikistan needs 3-4 tons of wood. This has been leading to deforestation, bringing soil erosion, salinization, and reduction of land fertility. Deforestation contributes to climate change, resulting in glacier shrinkage, threatening water supplies. The usage of wood and shrubs for heating and cooking results in an increase in indoor air pollution, which increases respiratory illnesses.
Currently, electricity is the cheapest available resource for residential and commercial sectors in Tajikistan. The country heavily relies on hydropower for nearly all its electricity needs, which accounts for 90% of its energy mix. Even though Tajikistan ranks 8th globally with an annual capacity of 3000 billion kWh, this potential is underutilized, with only 15 billion kWh, which is just 4%.
This dependency makes Tajikistan face supply shocks due to water level fluctuations in reservoirs. Hydropower output is highest in summer, while energy demand peaks in winter, which leaves about 1 million people without reliable electricity, with 70% of the population suffering from an electricity shortage in winter.
The existing energy system functions inefficiently, while the energy infrastructure is quite poor and old. The majority of hydro plants were built in the Soviet era and are therefore outdated and need rehabilitation. Over the past two decades, losses resulting from the poor quality of the country’s transmission and distribution systems have averaged 15.5%. In contrast, average losses in International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries were below 7% of supply. On average, the non-domestic sector in the country experiences six power interruptions per month.
Electricity shortage exacerbates poverty issues in the country, further worsening the condition of the poor households. Firstly, it limits access to essential services. Educational institutions, hospitals, and businesses are forced to close due to a lack of adequate lighting and heating. Students are not able to attend school, and hospitals cannot perform surgeries and provide simple medical services. Closure of businesses further cut the existing job opportunities, decreasing the small income the population has.
Secondly, energy shortage puts additional burden on women and girls as they have to collect wood, spend hours on cooking and basic household tasks, which distract them from getting an education or engaging in activities directed towards income-generation.
Is the red flag raised?
The government acknowledges the issue and is engaged in addressing it. Several key documents have been developed, such as the National Development Strategy to 2030, the Program for Development in Mid-term Perspective 2021-2025, which highlight the importance of energy source diversification. However, (1) according to Shadrina (2020), there is a discrepancy and inconsistency within these programs and strategies with overlapping goals, and (2) as large-scale hydropower remains the pivotal element of the country’s energy policy, immediate local needs are neglected.
For example, the Power Sector Development Master Plan (2017) focused exclusively on hydropower, with only a brief mention of wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass energy. Additionally, the master plan (the National Development Strategy to 2030) does not present a robust vision on the country´s sustainable development.
The government also suggests exploring small-scale hydropower plants with initiatives such as the Long-term Programme for Small Hydropower Plants for 2009-2020. However, the progress has been limited, with only 41 out of 189 planned small hydropower plants completed by 2016. Feasibility studies for solar panel installation in remote areas have been conducted, but broader plans remain undeveloped.
The central aim of energy policy is the construction of the Rogun HPP project, which will make a significant contribution to poverty reduction and growth in the country by increasing electricity export and decreasing energy shortage. However, projects at this scale also pose social and economic risks, including community displacement, changes in hydrological flow patterns, with further effects on livelihoods and wildlife. To prevent instability, the government should identify and mitigate these risks.
On the other hand, the mining and production of coal have been on the rise in Tajikistan. According to the International Energy Agency (2022), the production of coal has increased tenfold in the last decade, reaching 2.1 million tonnes in 2020. Coal is used in Dushanbe mainly for district heating, particularly after building the Dushanbe-2 Power Station, and it accounts for 6% of the total electricity generation. However, according to Greenpeace (2005), coal is considered the most environmentally harmful fossil fuel. It releases numerous toxic pollutants into the air, water, and soil, disrupting ecosystems and risking health by causing cancer, brain damage, and hindering reproductive and developmental processes.
In 2010, the law “On Use of Renewable Energy Sources” and several other by-laws were adopted in Tajikistan, including the Special Program for Renewable Energy Source Use (2007-2015). Despite the government´s support of the development of renewable energy sources and even provision of financial and regulatory incentives, overall, these measures have not been able to foster market development and boost private sector participation.
Discrepancy in realizing legal and regulatory frameworks together with unclear roles and responsibilities of various agencies and institutions remain the main challenges to development of renewable energy in the country together with the inability to attract investment in the sector due to subsidized energy tariffs and poor revenue collection, a lack of supportive policies, underdeveloped institutional capacity, and limited awareness among businesses, stakeholders and the general population.
How to find a way out?
The reliable and affordable power supply is crucial for Tajikistan´s further development and poverty reduction. Without it, businesses struggle to invest, function, and create jobs, while hospitals and schools are not able to operate properly. Electricity also drives Tajikistan´s two largest export products (aluminium and agriculture), accounting for about 30% of the country´s annual gross domestic product and nearly 45% of its export earnings.
One of the ways to diversify the energy mix for the country is to use more sustainable sources of renewable energy, such as solar and wind energy, with further reforms in the energy sphere. Tajikistan has abundant solar resources with 280-300 sunny days annually. The usage of solar resources could be realized by the installation of off-grid photovoltaic systems for lighting and minor electrical needs, which could be invested in and realized by smaller NGOs and the local community. For example, between 2009-2014, 2433 units of solar systems with a combined capacity of 88.7 kW were installed in 13 remote areas of Tajikistan (UNIDO & ICSHP, 2016). Larger solar systems for public buildings, which have higher initial costs, could be funded by international organizations and government bodies.
Wind energy also has potential in Tajikistan. Annual generation potential is estimated at 146 TWh/year. There are already 10 small-scale windmills constructed in rural areas of the country with a combined installed capacity of 100kW ( Eshchanov, B., Abylkasymova, A., Aminjonov, F., Moldokanov, D., Overland, I., Vakulchuk, R., 2019. Renewable energy policies of the central Asian countries. Central Asia Reg. Data Rev. 16, 1–4. http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2. 16609.56166/1.).
On the hydropower side, efforts should be directed towards improving existing transmission and distribution networks, particularly in remote areas. To meet domestic energy demand, investment should prioritize the construction of small and medium hydropower plants in smaller rivers, which could be pursued not solely by the government, but by attracting private and international stakeholders to the energy market.
One of the successful examples on how clean and renewable energy can be delivered to the most remote communities in Tajikistan is the private company Pamir Energy. The company is the result of the public-private partnership between the Aga Khan Fund of Economic Development (AKFED) and the Government of Tajikistan. The company manages energy infrastructure in GBAO, and from 2002 to 2014, it invested $37 million to repair and upgrade the energy infrastructure in the region. These investments were directed to the rehabilitation of 11 small non-functional or partially operational hydropower plants built in the Soviet time and 4,300 km of transmission lines. Pamir Energy supplies 96% of households in the region with reliable and clean energy. Subsidized tariffs reduced electricity costs, helping families to save on fuel costs, reducing harmful smoke inhalation, and deforestation. The company employs more than 600 people, and the number of businesses grew from 600 in 2006 to 2600 in 2016. Schools and hospitals operate during winter, fostering better education quality and advanced medical services. The Pamir Energy case shows how investments realized by other parties with the collaboration of the government can reduce energy poverty in remote mountainous areas.
Tajikistan has signaled its intention to develop non-hydropower renewable energy. However, the lack of regulatory mechanisms and unmeasurable goals often undermines these efforts. Another step to take towards the development of renewable energy is the elimination of monopoly in the energy market and the establishment of an autonomous energy regulatory body to monitor the progress of renewable energy projects, ensure compliance with national goals, and provide transparent guidance to investors.
Moreover, investment should be directed toward building local expertise in project development and maintenance of renewable energy plants and equipment, which will foster a skilled workforce, reducing dependency on foreign professionals.
Recommendations
Steps to be taken by the stakeholders in Tajikistan:
- Expand the energy mix by investing in solar and wind power alongside ongoing sector reforms.
- Promote the development of non-hydropower renewable energy sources.
- Break up energy market monopolies and establish an independent regulatory body to oversee renewable energy progress and attract investors.
- Invest in training local specialists to develop and maintain renewable energy infrastructure, reducing reliance on foreign expertise.