On 3 February 2022, the Central Asian office of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) and its analytical platform CABAR.asia hosted an international online expert discussion titled “Reforms in Kazakhstan 2.0: Security and Politics, Economy and Civil Society”.
The discussion topic was prompted by the tragic events in Kazakhstan at the beginning of January 2022. Mass protests in the country over rising fuel prices soon turned into mass riots, leading to violence and casualties. Although the situation has stabilised and entered a legal framework, and the authorities and human rights groups continue to investigate and report on these events, many urgent questions remain.
The purpose of the online event was to discuss the prospects for future reforms as a response to the current crisis, as outlined by President Tokayev in his address. The agenda of the event highlighted the key aspects of reform that need to be targeted – political, economic and in the area of civil society in Kazakhstan. The event was attended by more than 100 participants from different countries, including experts and academics from Central Asia, Europe and the USA.
Keynote speakers were George Krol, Associate Professor at the US Naval War College and former US Ambassador to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan; Iskander Akylbayev, Master of Public Administration, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy; Gulaikhan Kubayeva, Ph.D., Economist, University of Salerno; Tatyana Chernobil, Lawyer, Consultant on International Human Rights Law, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
The meeting was opened with welcoming remarks by IWPR Executive Director Anthony Borden and IWPR Regional Director for Central Asia Abakhon Sultonazarov. The online discussion was moderated by Nargis Kassenova, PhD, Senior Research Fellow in the Central Asia Programme of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University.
Can Tokayev take real steps to reform Kazakhstan?
Diplomat George Krol stated in his report that “now the power politics aside, or rather with the power or struggle at the top is over, president Tokayev seems now to be trying publicly to rally Kazakhstanis to support his leadership, especially those who initially demonstrated and the many Kazakhstan’s quietly discontented with the stagnation, the excesses, the artifice of the late Nazarbayev period. The president also seems to wish to assure the outside world current and future investors that his leadership will bring all Kazakhstanis together peacefully to strengthen Kazakhstan’s position and reputation as a politically and economically stable, progressive and reliable partner.
However, in order to obtain the trust of the Kazakhstani people, and I would say much of the rest of the world community were stunned by the violence of the January events president Tokayev and his government must also address convincingly the tragic side of those events, the unprecedented killings, the beatings, the disappearances, and the detentions that are being reported on almost daily now by many who are following the situation. The government has to do something about it credibly and bring people to responsibility in the eyes and people of Kazakhstan and in the world community and potential investors”, – said George Krol.
Krol noted that “a key question today’s panel will address and probably will not be able to answer definitively is fundamentally will and can president Tokayev and his government undertake real and significant steps to reform Kazakhstan as president Tokayev asserts they will, or is this just a rhetorical exercise to pacify the majority of discontented Kazakhstanis and prevent Kazakhstanis from demonstrating publicly for change or, or having a voice in change even more, more importantly, perhaps than demonstrations. Can Kazakhstan’s current leadership, its government and its bureaucracy really transform the system itself and its bodies to really share power and control with those currently outside of it? If the reform impulse is genuine, will or should the reform be rapid or evolutionary? Will it come from the top or below? What will be the priority reforms, the sequencing? All these questions, as we say, the devil and the details who and how, who will make these decisions on reforms, how will they be decided? How will they be in implemented?”.
Mentioning the anniversary year of CIS independence, George Krol said that “over the last 30 years, practically every leadership changed in the former Soviet Union like in Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and even most recently in Uzbekistan – virtually everywhere. This has been accompanied by expectations of change and the new leadership pronounced commitment to pursue cardinal reforms. But in many of these cases, the results have not met those expectations. Now it’s the new leadership in Kazakhstan’s turn. So summing up as we discuss reforming Kazakhstan 2.0 today, it’s worthwhile to keep this past in mind, as well as the real difficulties of conducting change and reform in any society and I would add including my own United States”.
George Krol is a professional diplomat and concluded his report with his wishes to the authorities and the people of Kazakhstan: “Successful diplomacy usually means no one at the negotiating table is 100% satisfied with the result. A successful result, almost invariably consists of difficult, sometimes unpleasant compromises, but it’s a result that at least advances everyone’s basic interest somewhat, although not maximally, it is usually peaceful, but it’s often accompanied by high drama and tension, usually behind closed doors. And finally that result can be sold successfully to key stakeholders domestically and internationally. Now I would hope that president Tokayev himself, a professional diplomat with deep experience in the art of diplomacy and compromise will be able to achieve such a success as president for the people of Kazakhstan and I, for one wish him and most importantly, the people of Kazakhstan well in this endeavor”.
What to expect from Tokayev’s political and security reforms?
Analyst Iskander Akylbayev pointed out that “the socio-economic context was a key trigger. Inequality and social injustice in the major areas of the economy were, for a long time, a major but muted concern. The protest was mainly led in the Kazakh language. It tells us about demographic, social, economic, and cultural demands and expectations among the Kazakh-speaking population. The economic difference between rural and urban areas is vivid.
Despite this fact, the trust between Nazarbayev and Tokayev is mutual. The power struggle among a certain group of elites, mainly on the sidelines, became vivid. Some major political stakeholders were not happy with Tokayev’s appointment as President. In fact, rival political groups often showed reluctance towards Tokayev’s actions and decrees as President during the last 2,5 years.
The recent changes in key economic and political positions inside the Kazakh government—the newly appointed Prime Minister and Cabinet Minister, the Speaker of Parliament, the resignation of the Deputy Head of the ruling Nur Otan Party, and the resignation of family members of the First President, tell us about the gradual steps of Tokayev’s administration to build a more collective governing policy. Yet, we may see more technocrats than politicians in key posts”.
Speaking of technocrats, Akylbayev stressed that he is referring to political neutrality; people who have no experience of working within a state body. People from outside, with different experiences and more committed to effective implementation of a programme or a decree. This would be a much more pragmatic aspect – people aged 35-40 would be the drivers of reform in Kazakhstan in mid-career. There is a presidential pool for people who are in mid-career, and a lot of attention is now being paid to them: how they will be involved in political reform, what role they will play or other people who previously had no further say. President Tokayev is distancing himself from people who may in some way be associated with any of the political groups or interest groups of the previous regime type.
“Current changes in the government should be analyzed through the forthcoming presidential elections in 2024. For President Tokayev, the next two years are crucial for his chances of being reelected for a second and last term (as he recently stated).
On the foreign policy front, Kazakhstan will certainly try to follow its multivector foreign policy. Yet, we may expect that Russia will attempt to increase its influence over Central Asia through political, economic, and cultural means. The current tensions between Russia and NATO over Ukraine could be the next topic for CSTO discussion and test for its members”, Iskander Akylbayev concluded in his report.
Kazakhstan’s new course? Prospects for Tokayev’s new economic policy
Economist Gulaikhan Kubayeva spoke about the Kazakhstani president’s announced economic reforms. “Following widespread unrest in Kazakhstan in January, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the country’s citizens and shared his vision of economic reforms. He also met with Kazakhstan’s business leaders and urged them to actively participate in improving the country’s investment climate. The President acknowledged that the government’s failure to work effectively, address corruption, growing economic inequality and other socio-economic problems had led to the tragic events of January”.
According to Kubaeva, Tokayev acknowledged that despite economic growth, income distribution was uneven. “For the president it is important to bridge the gap between the wealthy minority and the struggling majority and to remove the triggers for further disruption. Private business is the backbone of national growth, so fair competition is a priority for Kazakhstan’s economy. In concrete terms, the Kazakh government has begun drafting a new bankruptcy law covering individual bankruptcies. The president also announced the creation of a public social fund “For the People of Kazakhstan”, which will be capitalised through taxation of wealthy groups and companies operating in the mineral sector.
Continuing the theme of inequality, Tokayev said that inequality in income distribution does not only affect citizens, but also businesses. The current economic system favours mainly large businesses. Financial and oligarchic groups have become the main beneficiaries of economic growth, and this system further aggravates the oligopoly in the economy. The existing oligopoly severely limits the development of a free market and reduces the country’s competitiveness.
In his address, the president also emphasised the ineffectiveness of state programmes, in particular that state support programmes remain ineffective and non-transparent, and wished that the mechanisms for implementing state programmes should be clear and precise. There are about 6,500 quasi-state organisations in Kazakhstan, and if we talk about specific measures to reform them, then state involvement in business should be reduced. Tokayev also pointed to the ineffective work of the Development Bank of Kazakhstan, which provided privileged terms for a select circle of individuals representing financial-industrial and construction groups – these resources could be used to help SMEs. The President did not ignore the reform of Samruk-Kazyna, namely the reduction of the number of employees and structural subdivisions”.
In analysing Tokayev’s message, Kubaeva singled out the main prospects and directions of Kazakhstan’s new economic policy, namely: integrity of private property (transparency of proceedings, reform of the judicial system); improvement of the investment climate through fair competition (elimination of artificial monopolies); increased transparency: new tax policy and procurement system, transparent implementation of state programmes; reduction of quasi-state organisations, reduced state interference; establishment of the Council of Domestic Entrepreneurs.
Concluding her report, Gulaikhan Kubayeva noted that despite the fact that the announced roadmap was met with great approval and raised expectations among the population, most expert opinions are still critical of its implementation. Given that the timeframe for developing reforms is rather short, there is a risk that initiatives are undertaken to defuse social tensions, the development of such programmes and the selection of appropriate key performance indicators require a longer timeframe. “While Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s proposals are interesting, it is more important to follow the process, mechanism, timing and scale of implementation of these reforms,” said Kubayeva.
Civil Society and Human Rights in Kazakhstan: Empty Promises or Real Change?
According to human rights activist Tatyana Chernobil, “human rights for the state in Kazakhstan is a convenient political tool, not a goal or “way of life”, i.e. by no means a basis for state management: it is a kind of convenient management tool inside the country and an inconvenient, but unavoidable, tool of conversation when building relations with EU countries and the USA. Therefore, the existing state support for the exercise of their human rights is often owed to the interests of the state rather than to their own birthright as human beings”.
“President Tokayev’s human rights initiatives to date have dealt with selective rights, not all. Why? A good question. And what we have is that, in violation of the principle of indivisibility and interdependence of human rights, only certain rights are declared as priority or ‘first priority'”, Chernobil said.
In June 2021, President Tokayev decided to affirm as “priority” the rights of victims of trafficking and citizens with disabilities. He also singled out the elimination of discrimination against women. Among civil and political rights, the right to freedom of association; the right to freedom of expression; the human right to life and public order; and “human rights in the field of criminal justice, execution [of sentences] and prevention of torture and ill-treatment” were noted. From the “human right to life” section, Kazakhstan has abolished the death penalty. “However, now, as everyone knows, following President Tokayev’s order to shoot to kill, there are serious problems with this right in Kazakhstan”, Chernobil said.
According to Chernobil, amid a growing number of reports of torture in the wake of the January events, without effective investigation into all these reports, there will be no popular confidence in the findings of the official investigation into the events themselves.
“All of President Tokayev’s human rights initiatives to date have been, if not buried, then eclipsed. Namely, the president’s order to shoot to kill resulted in the deaths of civilians. Secondly, the indirect blaming of human rights defenders, activists and peaceful protesters for the tragedy that played out. Third, the wave of reports of horrific torture in detention conditions. Also worrisome are the insistent reminders to adhere to the law when holding peaceful assemblies – a law, any deviation from which when organising or holding peaceful assemblies, can even lead to arrest. Whether the dawn or dusk of human rights awaits us, we will see how far President Tokayev will emerge from the current situation,” concluded Chernobil.
The speakers’ reports were followed by a Q&A session in which participants asked their questions to the experts. After this informative session, the moderator of the event, Nargis Kassenova, passed the floor to IWPR Executive Director Anthony Borden and IWPR Regional Director for Central Asia Abakhon Sultonazarov, who gave a short closing speech and summarised the speakers’ points.
Watch the full video (in English) of the expert online meeting: