This autumn, Kazakhstan is going to hold early presidential election. According to Kazakhstanis, thus Tokayev is turning back to Nazarbayev’s old methods.
“For me, state interests are above all. Therefore, I am willing to participate in the early presidential election even despite the reduced term of my office,” said Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev addressing the people on September 1.
Presidential election in Kazakhstan must take place in 2024, but the head of state suggested not to wait for two years, but to hold it this autumn. According to different information, the election will be held in late November or on the first of December.
Moreover, Tokayev suggested increasing the term of presidential office from five to seven years, but without the right of re-election.
The parliamentary election to be held in 2025 will be held next year.
Right after the speech of the president, official media outlets started publishing materials containing feedback in support of Tokayev. In social media, people were complaining about “assignment” to “give” feedback, i.e. make posts, publish videos and give interviews in support of the president’s message.
Kazakhstanis have taken the news differently. Some people think that Tokayev adopted Nazarbayev’s old methods by suggesting early presidential election.
“In his days, Nazarbayev did the same. At first, he was elected twice for four years, then he was elected for seven years, and then for five years. Many understand that this is the same story. There are no real political parties in the country so far. I am afraid the elections will not be fair again,” Serik Ziat, teacher from Kyzylorda, said.
Others think that Tokayev has no decent alternative in the country so far.
“I don’t see a real candidate for Tokayev’s post. He allowed us to withdraw some money from the Unified Savings Pension Fund and close out mortgages and I am very happy about that,” said Rabiga Kasenova, resident of Almaty.
Credibility
Mukhtar Taizhan, head of the Bolatkhan Taizhan Fund, links this election haste to Tokayev’s rating, which increased amid January events, but will hardly remain at the same level in 2024. He noted that the president has no obstacles to carry out reforms now, without early election. It means he hurries for a reason:
Sabit Sansyzbaev, professor of the O.Dzholdasbekov Law Academy, also said that the decision to hold early election was made in a hurry. According to him, Tokayev would be a real democrat if before the election he had cancelled the anti-democratic restriction on mandatory 5 years of experience in civil service for all presidential candidates.
“In this situation, he has two ways to choose from. He can either become the real democratic president in the history, or retain the power and implement the goals he has in his mind. Having encountered the resistance of the political elite, which, on the one hand, squeezes out the people who have been very exhausted by the economic recession, and on the other hand, have used to work with the Nazarbayev model, or more precisely do not want to lose power, Tokayev wants to retain the power in his hands, without relying on both parties,” Sansyzbaev said.
However, according to analyst Mukhtar Tumenbai, Tokayev carries a risk by holding presidential election now amid the economic crisis. Unlike Nazarbayev, who organised regular election campaigns only when his limitless authority was not threatened by anything.
“Moreover, the country has not recovered from the January events yet. Less than a year have passed. And a good few people think that the president along with rebel elite groups are to blame in the bloody massacre. Holding election in these conditions poses a big risk. If so, why does Tokayev need to hold the early election? There is only one answer. He needs time to carry out his reforms in full. And he does not have this time,” Tumenbai said.
According to him, that is the reason why the head of state suggested increasing the presidential term to seven years, with a limitation of one term only.
“This is why Tokayev suggested making an official contract to the general public. This is how I understood his suggestion. He needs a mandate of trust to bring his initiatives to a close,” Tumenbai said.
Limit on independent observations
The fact that authorities of Kazakhstan were preparing for the election became obvious this summer. In mid-July, the website of laws and regulations published a document with amendments to the law “On elections”. According to it, organisations that observe the elections must be accredited. The reason for no accreditation could be financial support from international organisations. Later, this norm was removed, but the accreditation procedure remained.
“[Accreditation] is not only about telling about your organisation, or showing financial investments or grants. But it is also about the fact the central and local election commissions would be free to decide which organisation has the right and which has not the right to observe the election. And this sets bounds and discriminates against various organisations,” said Yelena Shvetsova, head of “Erkindik kanaty” public foundation.
At the end of August, a peaceful rally was held in Nur-Sultan against amendments. Nevertheless, the draft law was adopted.
In early September, the “Coalition of democratic forces” was established in the country out of opposition politicians, public figures. According to them, their goal was to build new Kazakhstan without one-man rule. One of the coalition members, journalist Dina Yelgezek, said that the attempts to recover the super-presidency system are very tricky.
“We do not support Tokayev’s position on holding early presidential elections. Real political reforms are needed to establish fair Kazakhstan. And to carry out the reforms, one needs to ask the people for the new mandate of trust without holding early election,” she said.
According to her, to be able to build fair Kazakhstan, which was addressed by Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev in his message, articles that restrict constitutional rights of citizens and hinder free and fair elections need to be excluded.
The presidential race has not begun officially, but possible candidates are emerging already. The day when it became known about early election, politician Amirzhan Kosanov said that he was going to take part in it. In 2019, he already ran for the office of the leader of Kazakhstan, but lost to Tokayev and won only 16.23 per cent of votes.
The candidatures of journalist and public figure Yermurat Bapi, businessman and ex-head of Kazatomprom Mukhtar Dzhakishev are being discussed on social media. They have not made any statements so far.
On September 7, the member of the Central Election Commission, Shavkat Utemisov, speaking to journalists, said that any person can take part in elections, including Dariga Nazarbayeva or Nursultan Nazarbayev. However, earlier vice minister of justice Alma Mukanova said that ex-president of Kazakhstan may not participate in elections because the norm that said that the first president could run for presidency for more than two times in a row was removed from the Constitution.