In Kyrgyzstan, the life span may decrease by 5 per cent because of Covid-19 consequences, according to experts.
The coronavirus pandemic is still relevant in Kyrgyzstan. In recent weeks, 100-200 new cases have been identified in the country, while the total number of registered Covid-19 patients by the end of August reached almost 21 thousand.
That being said, over 65 per cent of all registered cases of Covid-19 took place in January 2022 (13,763 coronavirus cases were identified). It affected the next three months – February, March and April – when the morbidity rate was several times higher than that in the similar period of 2021.
Then, according to the official statistics, there was a decline of laboratory confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the republic compared to last year. However, if we look at the data not in terms of comparison to last year, but in terms of monthly increase in the morbidity, we will see the sharp increase of cases in July. The increase was almost 36-fold compared to June 2022. This points to the fact that the country overcame another wave of Covid-19 in July.
“It’s obvious that every country facing coronavirus has its own cycle of ups and downs. In our country, the biggest wave took place in June-July. In July, it reached its peak and then in August it decreased. It is related to the people’s immunity. Herd immunity reduces within a year, the virus mutates and the new strain develops in a human. Even in those who have already recovered. Now we see that people get reinfected again,” Aibar Sultangaziev, executive director of “Partnership Network” Association.
However, it’s too early to ignore the disease. The coronavirus will appear until the end of year.
“Another wave of Covid-19, according to my estimates, will take place in late autumn, in November, and in February next year. And it will continue the same. In the next five years, we will face it just like the influenza until the virus weakens or human body adapts for it,” Sultangaziev said.
No lockdown will be announced
In early September, China announced lockdown because of 160 coronavirus positive tests. Residents of Chengdu in the province of Sichuan were required to self-isolate.
The measures were tightened in neighbouring Tajikistan. Now, upon arrival, one should present a negative PCR test or a certificate of vaccination against Covid-19. This measure is related to the growing coronavirus incidence rate not even in Tajikistan, but in other countries. Moreover, 90 per cent of local residents have been vaccinated against Covid-19.
However, according to Sultangaziev, we should not expect any serious restrictions due to the recurrent coronavirus incidence rate in Kyrgyzstan. It is partly related to the reduction of coronavirus mortality rate. In turn, it happened because of both mutation of the very virus, and organism’s adaptation to it.
Since early 2022, according to Our World in Data, 189 persons died from the coronavirus. However, no new deaths from Covid-19 have been registered in Kyrgyzstan since April 5.
According to Sultangaziev, today Kyrgyzstan has the majority of existing strains of coronavirus. Theoretically, the virus could mutate in Kyrgyzstan, but it is highly unlikely. Virus usually mutates in countries with high density of population.
“The key factor is that Covid-19 stopped damaging the lungs. In other words, there is no quick death, no lung damage. The virus stops somewhere in the upper respiratory airway. And we do not have the lethality as in 2020. So, most probably, there will be no lockdown. Lockdown have a serious impact on economy. And here we have to sacrifice few people, our health. It’s rather a matter of survival,” said director of “Partnership Network”.
In the same time, he noted that there should be no delusion about the harmlessness of coronavirus. The virus might not kill people in short time as in 2020, but it damages many internal organs. It is difficult to identify the affected organ.
“People do not die, but they get very weak. Chronic diseases become more intense. Especially, cardiovascular diseases and various blood disorders (thrombi, etc.). I see, and I think it will be confirmed by studies later, the number of deaths from post-Covid complications – blood strokes, heart attacks – has increased. In my opinion, we will see the reduction of life span for 2-3 years in the next five years in Kyrgyzstan given the consequences of Covid-19,” the expert said.
According to Aibar Sultangaziev, taking anticoagulants and antiplatelets after recovery can help decrease the risk of mortality from post-covid disorders. It is important to consult your attending physician because of some contraindications.
Vaccination
The main way to protect oneself from post-covid implications is vaccination. As of early September 2022, the total number of Kyrgyzstanis who received all doses prescribed by the initial vaccination protocol was 20.39 per cent, or 1 million 330 thousand 938 people (visible growth since August 2021), with the average indicator in the world — 62.21 per cent.
“Vaccination remains the only protection. Yes, vaccinated people also get ill. But they do not have serious consequences and do not die,” the expert said.
Kyrgyzstan does not offer a wide choice of vaccines. Until recently, only Chinese Sinopharm was available for vaccination. From August 30, Pfizer is available. The republic received 100,620 doses under the COVAX facility.
The vaccines that are available to Kyrgyzstanis today have been developed and actively fight the very first and aggressive strain of coronavirus. However, the world is testing the updated vaccine now in Russia and Europe.
“The vaccine should change. But it does not mean that the first vaccine is not effective against new strains. For the organism of vaccinated people, mutated virus is not something new as it is familiar with the Covid-19. So, it can resist it,” the expert said.