The countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Georgia, have already faced an influx of Russians (citizens of the Russian Federation) seeking to settle down outside of Russia. Given the lack of air service and bureaucratic difficulties in obtaining a legal stay in Western countries, Russians have rushed to states that accept holders of Russian passports.
Who is leaving?
This new wave of emigration from Russia is special for many reasons, and will be irrevocable. Literally its best minds are leaving the country – namely, the academic elite, IT specialists, journalists, political and environmental activists, and other qualified professionals. It is still difficult to quantify the migration outflow from Russia. According to some experts, about 200,000 Russians emigrated, mainly to Armenia – 80,000; to Georgia – about 25 thousand (according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia – 30 thousand people[1]), in a smaller number – to Kyrgyzstan, Israel and the Baltic countries.[2] It is still difficult to confirm these figures, because official statistics in all host countries are not available, and official statements are contradictory.[3]
Dozens of pages have been created on social networks to help relocate highly qualified personnel from Russia to Uzbekistan;[4] Kazakhstan or Israel.[5] Armenia opened a program of ethnic repatriation from Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, guaranteeing its participants payment for a flight to Armenia, Armenian language courses and assistance in finding a job and integration.[6]
Emigration is not only the departure of people, but also the outflow of ideas, business, and potential for the future. The relocation of businesses from Russia to the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus is already a reality. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, according to Vartan Marashlyan, partner of the “reArmenia” platform, more than 10,000 Russians have asked questions about the relocation of businesses and specialists to Armenia.[7] According to unofficial information, in two weeks of March 2022, representatives of about 250 companies contacted the hotline of the Ministry of Economy of Armenia with a request for relocation. At the same time, 6,500 new companies were registered in Armenia, the owners of which are non-residents of Armenia.
Since the beginning of 2022, as part of the TashRush relocation program, over 3,000 foreign IT specialists have moved to Uzbekistan, mostly citizens of Belarus and the Russian Federation.[8] From April 1 2022, Uzbekistan will issue a special IT-Visa for qualified IT specialists for up to 3 years with the right to tacit extension.[9] This visa guarantees a simplified obtaining of a residence permit for the applicant himself and a visitor visa for their family members, receiving medical services, education on equal terms with citizens of Uzbekistan, and so on.
Where are they leaving?
The countries of the Eurasian Union are an ideal option for emigration from Russia. Firstly, the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, with the exception of Georgia, are officially neutral on the issue of the war in Ukraine and abstained from voting on the UN resolution “Aggression in Ukraine”.[10] Secondly, the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus are not on the list of countries unfriendly to the Russian Federation, approved by the order of the Russian government dated 05.03.2022.[11] This is a very important point, which makes it possible to return to Russia (if necessary) and does not impose restrictions on the use of property in Russia. According to the Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of March 1 2022, the presence of dual citizenship or a residence permit in countries classified by the Russian government as “unfriendly” automatically leads to a ban on the sale, purchase or turnover of property on the territory of the Russian Federation.[12]
Thirdly, the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus have a liberal migration order of entry for citizens of the Russian Federation. According to the current rules, citizens of the Russian Federation can stay on the territory of the EAEU countries without registration for 30 days, and can then register on the territory of the EAEU country on a notification basis. Georgia allows Russians to stay in the country with a Russian passport for up to 1 year, after which a Russian citizen must leave Georgia or obtain a temporary or permanent residence permit from the Georgian Civil Registry Agency.[13] Uzbekistan has re-launched the electronic portal for issuing e-visas[14] for foreign citizens and stateless persons, which suspended its work due to the coronavirus pandemic.Furthermore, moving to the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus does not require special cultural or linguistic adaptation for Russian citizens. In most countries of the region, Russian remains the language of everyday communication, and the rules and laws of residence are similar to Russian.
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Most of the people leaving Russia today are expats, not refugees. Departure from Russia is, on the one hand, a forced measure, and on the other, their free choice. People leave their homeland to pursue their own business and live in a way that seems to them the most satisfying and free, or at least less restrictive. These people have no desire to return to today’s Russia, although, crucially, they can do so legally if they wish.
The countries of Central Asia, due to the relocation of specialists and the relocation of Russian and Belarusian businesses, will acquire highly qualified specialists. However, to which extent they will be able to use the opportunity of these unexpected advantages of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine depends largely on themselves.
[1] https://www.ekhokavkaza.com/a/31758097.html
[2] https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1501244831045144579
[3] https://civil.ge/ru/archives/477839
[6] http://repatarmenia.org/ru/%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%BB%D1%8E%D1%87%D0%B0%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8F/%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%89%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE/%D0%B0/armenia-works-4u?
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBMfJahTlZQ
[8] https://podrobno.uz/cat/obchestvo/v-uzbekistan-v-ramkakh-programmy-relokatsii-tolko-s-nachala-goda-priekhalo-svyshe-trekh-tysyach-inos/
[10] https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/RU_105.pdf
[11] Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of March 5, 2022 N 430-r On approval of the list of foreign states and territories committing unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation, Russian legal entities and individuals.
[12] https://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202203010083
[13] https://www.geoconsul.gov.ge/HtmlPage/Html/View?id=956&lang=Eng