If the volume of water in Toktogul HPP drops to 6 billion cubic metres, which can happen next spring, the power system of the country will be paralysed. This industry sector, politicised and being in deep crisis for many years, survives from winter to winter.
In mid-October, the volume of water in Toktogul Reservoir was 12.3 billion cubic metres, according to the National Energy Holding. A year ago, the reservoir had 15.1 billion cubic metres of water, whereas its capacity is 19 billion cubic metres.
On average, Toktogul HPP draws off 6-7 billion cubic metres of water in a heating season. After the coming winter and based on the growing energy consumption, the water level can drop to 6 billion cubic metres as early as in spring 2022. The National Energy Holding raise the alarm – this is almost a dead level, when the key energy storage of the country will not be able to perform its function.
Toktogul HPP generates more than one third of energy consumed in Kyrgyzstan. Experts name two causes of the catastrophic shallowing of the reservoir. The first one – the low water cycle that repeats every 6-7 years has begun. The second one – energy consumption grows by 4-6 per cent every year.
“To reach energy independence, we need to increase generation up to 18 million kilowatt hours. Today, the shortage and deferred demand is nearly 6 billion kilowatt hours,” said Akylbek Zhaprov, the head of the government (the then minister of economy), at the press conference on economic matters.
Power shortage to be compensated with imports
Despite the hydrological benefits, Kyrgyzstan currently imports power from all Central Asian countries. It holds talks about additional supplies with Russia.
According to the head of the Department of State Policy of the Ministry of Energy and Industry, Aibek Aidaraliev, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have agreed to exchange power with total volume 900 million kWh. 750 million kWh is being imported from Uzbekistan on the same terms. In exchange, the country will provide them with water in summer season until 2023.
According to the agreement between presidents, Turkmenistan will supply electricity in the amount of 501.9 million kWh to Kyrgyzstan from August to December 2021. The price of the electricity from Turkmenistan is a commercial secret, but the cabinet of ministers ensured that the price was reasonable. Moreover, Tajikistan began to supply power from October 1. However, there is no information about the total volume and terms of the agreement. What we know is that Kyrgyzstan receives one million kWh per day from the neighbouring country.
Bishkek TPP, which covers nearly 15 per cent of the country needs, will face double burden. Currently, the thermal power plant generates 1.2 billion kWh of electricity. Power output is going to be doubled amidst the water shortage.
However, there are two key points here. First, TPP works on coal, and the ecological situation in the capital city, which is already covered with smog, can deteriorate. Second, the cost of 1 kWh of electricity generated by TPP is 7 times more than that on HPP: 3.58 som (0.042 dollars) against 51 tyiyn (0.006 dollars).
“Thus, we are planning to reach 8.5 billion cubic metres [on Toktogul HPP] in the spring cycle. Thereafter, the river water flow will increase. We hope that in 2022 the low water period will end,” said Aziz Aaliev, deputy chair of the cabinet of ministers.
No rotating outages, but saving is required
The authorities are trying to save electricity and call on the people to save the resources. At the end of September, the National Energy Holding issued an order on restricting street, advertisement and park lighting. But it cancelled its decision based on the public criticism.
Nevertheless, the sellers at Dordoi market have been banned to use heaters; shopping and recreational centres have been ordered to save electricity. It was banned to issue new specifications for heating and water heating. It is banned to use electric heating in the hours of maximum electricity consumption. It is temporary banned to issue specifications for mining.
Despite all these attempts, consumption continues to go beyond the limits. According to the Kyrgyz Energy Processing Centre, on October 11 the daily consumption of energy across the republic was almost 37 million kWh, while the limit is just over 24 million kWh.
However, people complain more about power outages. According to a resident of Osh region, they regularly face power outages since the end of September.
“They cut power every other day, from morning till evening. In early October, we had no electricity for five days in a row. We took a loan and recently opened a small sewing workshop. But we are already suffering losses because of such cuts,” he said.
According to the Ministry of Energy and Industry, all power cuts are related to repair works.
“Because of the pandemic, repair works were held insufficiently. We give notice to the people in advance and cut electricity from morning till evening. This is not the rotating outage, but a range of comprehensive measures to ensure good performance in the autumn-winter period,” Doskul Bekmurzaev, minister of energy, said.
Winter coal is ahead. Kyrgyzstanis are promised to have uninterrupted power supply. However, as practice shows, in the last 10 years, electricity was cut in the country on various excuses, even in high-water years.
Tariff escalation suspended once again
Recently, the republic introduced new electricity tariffs and rates for non-domestic customers were increased. Subsidies to residential customers remained unchanged: 0.77 som (0.0091 dollars) for 1 kWh for up to 700 kWh per month, and 2.16 som (0.025 dollars) per 1 kWh for over 700 kWh. The electricity consumption rate for high mountain and difficult access areas was cancelled, in other words the rate 0.77 som per 1 kWh will be valid without restrictions. 70 per cent of consumed power is consumed by the population.
Thus, the tariff policy approved in 2015 remains unchanged despite the losses, inflation rate and the protracted energy crisis in the republic. In spring 2021, president Sadyr Zhaparov offered to double the rate and introduce allowances for low-income households. In his opinion, the new line in the price policy could have lifted the country out of power crisis by 2025. However, amid public criticism, he gave up on the initiative.
In his comment on the failed attempt to raise electricity tariffs, Zhaparov addressed the Kyrgyzstanis: “maybe you’ll agree later, once you realise everything. But it will take some time.”
But there is no time left. The socially oriented yet economically impractical tariff policy leads to the collapse of the power sector, according to both international institutions and local experts. To salvage the almost destroyed soviet heritage, we need to revise the rates immediately, they say.
Their concern is reasonable: the wear and tear of the hydraulic infrastructure of the republic is about 80 per cent, which is deemed hazardous in the global practice. The amount of debts of power companies is 129.1 billion som (1.5 billion dollars). The level of losses remains within 12 per cent, according to Vostokelectro.
Energy sector has the majority of debts among other sectors of the republic. Almost one half of the national debt – 2 billion dollars – accounts for the power sector. Their funds have been spent mainly on the sector modernisation.
Expert in power sector Ernest Karybekov disputes the efficiency of loan use.
“Unluckily, the funds were used to the benefit of the energy mafia, rather than to the sector development. Modernisation of Bishkek TPP, numerous replacements of electric meters and loan repayment under other projects are made possible only due to tariff escalation. The authorities do not have the national approach; they are not aware of energy, state, national security of the country,” Karybekov said to CABAR.asia.
Tariff policy is not the only factor of all disasters
The energy potential of Kyrgyzstan is great, and only tenth portion of it is used at the moment, experts say. The state cannot build infrastructure on its own. Huge investments are needed for hydropower projects.
According to the Ministry of Energy and Industry, several HPPs are being modernised now – Toktogul, Uch-Kurgan, At-Bashi. The project “Commissioning of the second hydropower unit of Kambarata HPP-2” is going to increase the capacity by 120 megawatt. According to experts, it is impossible to meet the growing people’s demand by modernisation only. Investors will not come as they will reach the return on investments only in 40-50 years.
There is another option that has been discussed for many years – construction of Kara-Keche combined heat plant. It has the same capacity as Toktogul HPP. This matter has been actively discussed since 2005 and in 2016 the tender for its construction was announced. But no investors were interested.
“If we could implement this project for 15 years, Kyrgyzstan would have the following – Toktogul Reservoir would always be full, all consumers would be switched to electricity, and TPPs of Bishkek and Osh that use foreign fuel would be destroyed,” Karybekov said.
However, many ecologists are against this project. The combined heat plant would use coal, and the current global warming agenda calls on all the countries to refuse solid fuel to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
However, according to Karybekov, the combined heat plant of Kara-Keche is not only the power facility. It can become the basis for own economic replenishment system in Kyrgyzstan and ensure the security and principles of independence.
Although today much is spoken about such power sources as wind and sun, it is impossible and unreasonable to develop high-power wind generators, solar power stations in Kyrgyzstan. Most of specialists agree on this issue. However, small-scale HPPs can be the solution. Today, Kyrgyzstan has 12 of them and their number can increase up to 100 with total capacity 180 megawatt.
It is impossible to solve all power issues with tariff escalation only and to get the sector out of deep crisis. The sector is considered one of the most corrupt, while management remains ineffective. This summer, ex-minister of energy Kubanychbek Turdubaev stated openly a day before his resignation that energy is a gold mine for a wide circle of persons and the tool to reach voting purposes of politicians.
“It is machinations and thievery taking place in the energy sector that silenced the political management of the country and made them unable to act. It is impossible to call the people for patience and hardships once you have no moral right to it,” ex-minister said.
Experts are confident that if the national power system is effectively run by the state, it will develop even without tariff escalation. One of the first steps is to combine energy companies into one and remove all intermediaries. According to civil activists, now the country has almost 30 intermediary power companies.