Heating season of 2023/2024 is going to end. Kyrgyzstanis will remember it best for the accident on the Bishkek thermal power plant, forced power cuts, and even water cuts in some places. As long as the republic depends on the power imports, officials make plans to reach surplus and start exporting it by 2026, and also allow cryptocurrency companies earn amid supply shortage.
President Sadyr Japarov declared by his Order dated August 1, 2023, the emergency situation in the energy sector, which will last until December 31, 2026.
Since late February 2024, when the frost grew stronger, Kyrgyzstanis residing in various regions of the country started complaining about widespread power cuts for 1.5-2 hours a day. It happened without formal warnings or schedules.
Screenshots from social media
Deputy Minister of Energy Taalaibek Baigaziev said only at the press conference on March 4 that some automation regulation works could take place in some districts.
According to him, the population does not want to heat their homes with coal and other alternative sources, many use electricity for heating and the daily consumption has increased up to 69-70 million kilowatts per hour (kWh) and virtually does not decrease.
Due to high load, the system load reduction automation comes into action at evening peak hours.
Since March 5, according to the ministry of energy Taalaibek Ibraev, the power consumption limits have been decreased for users with ‘smart’ single-phase meters from 5 to 4 kilowatts, and for users with three-phase meters – from 10 to 8 kilowatts.
No to people, yet to businessmen
The issue of restrictions was raised at the parliament session on March 6. Deputy Elvira Surabaldieva stood up for schoolchildren and women, who do not feel safe when they come from classes along dark streets. She asked the head of Ministry of Energy, why cryptocurrency mining companies continue to work in the country even during the shortage of electricity in the country.
Moreover, President Sadyr Japarov said that if winter season would have power shortage, the work of such facilities would be suspended.
First, Taalaibek Ibraev said that only one cryptocurrency mining company works officially in Kyrgyzstan. But MP Marat Murataliev said that there is information on the internet about 22 companies that work and pay taxes.
“What is their use during the crisis? It would be fine had they worked for the benefit of the people. But we have a shortage of it, we don’t have enough. The people will not get it, so they should be closed at all,” the deputy said.
However, according to the head of the Ministry of Energy, cryptocurrency mining companies did not receive any kilowatt of energy from Kyrgyzstan.
“They make agreements with Kazakhstan, pay us for transit, and it’s up to them where they get it from. Cryptocurrency mining companies are private businesses and we cannot prohibit their activities,” the minister said.
Later on, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan replied to the statement of their Kyrgyz colleagues and emphasised that electricity is exported only in surplus hours and for the purpose of accumulation of the necessary level of water at Toktogul HPP in order to further provide necessary amounts of irrigation water to southern regions of the country in the forthcoming vegetation period.
“Further distribution of electricity within the energy system of the Kyrgyz Republic is entirely a domestic jurisdiction of the power industry of Kyrgyzstan,” the agency said.
Therefore, the calls of the Kyrgyz officials on the people to put up with the temporary shortage and resulting power cuts sound weird.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Energy proposed to increase electricity rates on May 1, 2024. The tariff policy provides for adjustment of electricity rate for all groups of users according to the actual inflation rate in the previous year. The increase is expected by 10.8 per cent.
Earlier preparation for the new winter
According to official information of the Ministry of Energy of the Kyrgyz Republic, preparation works for the autumn-winter season of 2024-2025 will begin earlier than the last year’s.
From March 5, 2024, generating units of Toktogul and Uch-Kurgan HPPs were under restoration, and the available power of power plants declined by 290 megawatt (mW).
In this situation, the power system needs to introduce short-term relieving events. Citizens were called for more economical saving of electricity, especially in peak hours – mornings and evenings.
Doctor of economic sciences, honoured power engineer of the CIS, director of the institute for energy and communications of KSTU, Valentina Kasymova, also calls on the citizens to save electricity.
“At the same time, we’ll save water in the Toktogul reservoir. We need to put up with cuts in order to get prepared to the next heating winter season and to avoid the ‘dead level’ in the reservoir,” she said to CABAR.asia.
Moreover, professor recommends not to cut power in private houses, but to cut power in the entire service industry from 20.00. According to her, standards should be developed and strict energy saving conditions should be made.
“Just go to any restaurant and count the number of lamps that are lit. It is mind-boggling. Plus advertising banners illuminated all night long,” she said and added that night lighting of secondary streets should be switched off from 23.00 to 5.00, leaving lighting only in main routes.
Problems accumulate for years
According to Valentina Kasymova, Kyrgyzstan exports energy from the chain of Toktogul HPPs in spring-summer period, when water is released from storage for irrigation.
But this export volume has reduced compared to the Soviet period, when the country exported approximately 4 billion kilowatt hours per year, and received nearly 3.5 billion kilowatt hours in winter from thermal power plants of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Thus, according to her, there was an optimal operation mode in the Unified Power System of Central Asia (UPS CA).
However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the scheme was broken, and every country became self-dependent and exported power resources to third countries.
The energy shortage (over 3 billion kilowatt hours in the Kyrgyz Republic) comes from the fact that the UPS CA provided mutual supplies, and now they are on the commercial basis; intergovernmental agreements coordinate the volumes of water release from the Toktogul reservoir and volumes of export, import of power for a given year.
“Due to various reasons, interstate energy links have been broken, weather and climate conditions, lack of water and other things have had their impact. The country had the crisis that accumulated for years. The crisis escalated mainly in the years of low water: 2008-2009, 2014-2015, 2022-2023,” Valentina Kasymova said.
She said that the problem was that the operation mode in the cascade of Toktogul HPP was disturbed. Its design mode was irrigation and energy, meaning water accumulation in winter, and generating energy in summer. But the HPP started working in the energy mode, i.e. in winter it works to the maximum to generate electricity to meet the country’s needs, while neighbouring states stopped buying so much electricity in summer.
The situation was affected, according to the professor, by the fact that electricity rates were below the cost of its production and supply to consumers for a long time, and by the accident on the Bishkek TPP, which met the base load of the energy system, and by wear and tear of the equipment.
Thus, there has been no renovation of the Uch-Kurgan HPP since its launch in 1962. The standard operating life is 30 years, i.e. it expired back in 1992. Equipment and hydraulic structures of the hydropower plant have become obsolete and are in worn-out state.
The Toktogul HPP built in 1975 has four generating units. Generating units No. 4 and 2 were renovated in 2021 and 2023, and generating unit No. 1 was renovated this year. It will let increase the total capacity of the Toktogul HPP for up to 1,380 MW.
Increasing needs, no capacities
The number of users, according to the Ministry of Energy, is increasing, 30 thousand new users, on average, are being added every year. It requires additional capacity.
In 2010, the electric power consumption in the country was over 10.3 billion kilowatt hours (kWh), and in 2023 it increased up to 16.5 billion kWh.
Not a single major HPP has been built in Kyrgyzstan for 30 years, so all attention goes to Toktogul HPP.
The design volume of the reservoir is 19.5 billion cubic metres. According to Taalaibek Baigaziev, there is a risk of decline in water level to the ‘dead level’ (5.5 billion cubic metres).
The water volume, according to OJSC “Electric stations”, was 7.2 billion cubic metres as of March 19, 2024. Since the start of the year, the water level declined by 3 billion 220 million cubic metres. Compared to the similar period last year, the water level is lower by 677.33 million cubic metres. Moreover, the water yield is lower in 2024 than the previous year, and water discharge is higher.
According to Valentina Kasymova, a National programme to take the country out of the energy crisis and priority development of power industry was drafted and would be soon discussed in the Cabinet of Ministers.
The first stage of the project is designed for 2024-2027, second stage for 2028-2035. According to the estimated data, over 12 billion dollars will be required in investments. This money will be used for renovation of existing HPPs, construction of new major and minor HPPs, solar and wind farms, development of digital electric system, construction of overhead lines and switching stations, conversion of boiler stations to gas, etc.
The necessary amount may be increased. There should be some budget share. Foreign investments provide for state participation, e.g., allocation of land plots, preliminary operations, and many other things.
The programme provides for construction of solar and wind farms in order to meet its needs and ensure capacity for export by 2026.
This is the date specified by Akylbek Zhaparov, chair of the cabinet of ministers, at the second People’s Qurultai.
Currently, according to Valentina Kasymova, there are agreements with investors about construction of solar and wind farms, many minor HPPs are being built.
“However, minor HPPs are marked by minor capacity and high cost, so all of them can generate only about 1 billion kilowatt hours in the long term. To solve the energy crisis, we need to build new major HPPs as minor ones will not be enough,” she said.
Now, according to her, the rates of electricity consumption are higher than its output growth, with lacking capacity. During the years of independence, Kyrgyzstan did not build any new major HPP, construction of Kambarata HPPs was approved back in 1987, and they should have been fully launched by 1996.
According to Valentina Kasymova, only one unit for 129 megawatts instead of three was put into operation at Kambarata HPP-2. Preparation works to build the Kambarata HPP-1 with capacity 1,860 megawatts began. According to the project, the first unit will be put into operation by 2031. Electricity production increase is forecasted once new capacities of the cascade Upper Naryn HPPs, cascade of Kazarman HPPs and Kambarata HPP-1 are put into operation. Moreover, the repairs of the cascade of Lower Naryn HPPs will be completed.
“The Kyrgyz energy system will play a role in the UPS CA as a regulator of capacity and electricity reserve and water release from Toktogul reservoir long-term storage,” the professor said. “Once the Kambarata HPP-1 and the seasonal storage reservoir is put into operation, the Toktogul hydraulic power system will get back to the design irrigation and energy operation mode, but it will happen only after 2030.”
Also according to Valentina Kasymova, once solar and wind farms are built in the coming years, the shortage will be eliminated in 2027 based on the electricity balance forecast, and we will be able to export electricity from 2028 under the CASA-1000 project.
Main photo: pvproductions on Freepik