“The main obstacles to active cooperation between Georgia and Kyrgyzstan are the lack of logistical routes, direct flights, as well as weak diplomatic ties,” notes a graduate of the CABAR.asia School of Analytics – Asylgul Kanatbekova.
Despite the distance, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan have much more in common that can unite, and a lot of factors that can be learned from each other. As part of a common history dating back to Soviet times, there were economic and tourist ties between the countries. However, with independence, ties began to weaken although diplomatic relations between the countries were established in July 1992, the dynamics of their development remains weak. So far, neither Kyrgyzstan nor Georgia have an embassy in the two countries. Since 2012, there has been talk that an honorary consulate of Georgia will open in Bishkek , but so far the accredited office for affairs in Kyrgyzstan is the Georgian Embassy in Astana (Kazakhstan). The situation is the same in Georgia, where there is no embassy of Kyrgyzstan and all questions are directed to the embassy of the Kyrgyz Republic in Baku (Azerbaijan).
As of 2020, there were 574 citizens of Georgian ethnicity living in Kyrgyzstan. Georgians living in Kyrgyzstan try to develop the culture of their people and serve as a bridge for cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Georgia. The diaspora has also been actively involved in charity and humanitarian aid during the country’s crises. For example, the Association of Georgians provided material assistance to the Kyrgyz people – victims of natural disasters, interethnic conflicts in 2010 and during the invasion of armed extremists in 1999 .
The first visit of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic took place in 2016, when ex-president Almazbek Atambayev visited Georgia and signed a number of documents in the areas of taxation, investment protection, combating crime, education and science, and emergency situations. But since then, due attention has not been paid to bilateral relations either in Georgia or in Kyrgyzstan.
In this connection, the article attempts to describe the interface points and ways to develop cooperation between countries as part of an internship under the auspices of the CABAR.asia analytical platform to Georgia.
What unites Georgia and Kyrgyzstan?
The most enjoyable aspect that unites these countries is the mountainous terrain: more than 80% of the territory of Georgia is mountains, and in Kyrgyzstan – more than 90%.
Both countries have gone from corrupt political crisis to democratic transformation through the rose and tulip revolutions. However, according to opinion polls for 2021, 51% of Georgian citizens mentioned that they do not consider it a democratic country, and none of the parties meets their needs. The vast majority of respondents cited unemployment and poverty as their top concerns. In turn, in Kyrgyzstan in 2021 only 44% respondents believed that democracy is the best form of government in the country. Kyrgyzstanis cited the cost of living/high prices, unemployment, and corruption as the main important problems in the country, which only intensified after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in both countries. Moreover, in both countries there is a polarization of society, both on political and socio-economic grounds, which contributes to turbulence on the path to development.
The countries are united by a strong civil society, which has made a great contribution to the change and transformation of political systems. Civil society mobilizes whenever discontent and injustice arise. However, in our countries the authorities do not cooperate with civil society, but rather support attacks on the non-governmental sector (NGOs).
The modern parasite of economic development is corruption, which was and is in every country. Georgia has made great progress in the fight against corruption and ranks 45th out of 180 countries, while Kyrgyzstan is in 144th place with a score of 27 out of 100. The level of corruption in the country directly affects the flow of investment. The high transparency and efficiency of the government has made Georgia one of the easiest places in the world to do business. Meanwhile, corruption in Kyrgyzstan is widespread in all sectors, and bribery is a part of doing business. Despite reforms, levels of corruption remain high, and in addition to petty corruption, business also suffers from political favoritism and interference from high-ranking officials.
The topic of migration is acute in both countries. According to Shota Utiashvili (senior fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies), those who leave young come back after some time “to spend their old age in their homeland” in Georgia. This means that people leave in their prime, when they could make a huge contribution to the country’s economy but do so in another country. This is one of the reasons for the low birth rate in the country (on average, there are 2 children for every woman of childbearing age). The preponderance of the dependent population over the economically active is already felt in the country, which means that there are more children and the elderly than the working generation (57% to 43%). According to experts, the Georgian government has not yet taken any effective measures to prevent a decline in the birth rate and high emigration, which has already begun to manifest itself in a decrease in the population.
In Kyrgyzstan, the demographic structure is different in that the population is young, i.e. the birth rate remains quite high (on average, there are 3 children for every woman of childbearing age), and the number of migrants abroad, according to official data, is more than a million people. Remittance income is about 30% of the country’s GDP. The similarity of both countries lies in the fact that the problem of unemployment is acute, and due to the fact that the state cannot yet provide jobs for the economically active population, no measures are being taken to reduce labor emigration.
Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine has a very negative impact on the countries of the Central Asian and Caucasus region, which manifest themselves through a crisis in trade, migrant remittances, foreign direct investment, commodity prices and logistics. Russia and Ukraine are among the ten largest trading partners of Georgia, where the main exports of the country go, including wines and drinks.
Georgia also depends on Russia and Ukraine, as it imports grain products from there. Tourists from both countries accounted for more than 20% of tourists in Georgia in 2021, which should have decreased due to the economic crisis of the population, but here the opposite effect occurred when the war increased the number of tourists (most likely forced migration) in the country. Now there is the main flow of highly skilled migrants from Eastern Europe (Russia, Ukraine and Belarus), who are traveling to Georgia, Turkey, Armenia and the countries of Central Asia, since these are neighboring countries with a common past and entry into these countries is visa-free.
Georgia has taken in about 50,000 Russian citizens in the first four months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, most of whom can work remotely. Georgia also felt the crisis through the channel of migrant remittances, as 17.5% of them come from Russia. Against this background, the country’s economic growth may slow down, which will lead to high inflation and rising unemployment. According to World Bank forecasts, economic growth could fall to 2.5%, which was predicted at 5.5% before the war.
The war in Ukraine also had a strong impact on the economy of Kyrgyzstan. Russia is Kyrgyzstan’s largest trading partner, with trade between the countries accounting for 30% of Kyrgyzstan’s total trade. Since the beginning of the war, the supply and export of goods has become more difficult. According to the World Bank, a 5% contraction of the economy in Kyrgyzstan is predicted due to a decrease in direct investment and remittances from Russia. Also, during the war, propaganda from the Russian authorities, disinformation and the flow of “fake” news intensified both in the Kyrgyz and Georgian media space, which further contributes to the polarization of public and political groups in the countries.
Why are bilateral relations developing poorly?
Weakly developing diplomatic relations
Although both Georgia and Kyrgyzstan are popular as tourist destinations and have visa-free regimes, the high cost of air travel (averaging more than 500 USD each way) reduces the potential for development in the direction of bilateral tourism. Considering that the average salary in Kyrgyzstan barely reached 300 USD in 2021, and in Georgia – 450 USD in 2022, not everyone can afford a trip to Kyrgyzstan or Georgia. Also, there are no direct flights between the countries, and the nearest city from which one can fly directly to Georgia is Almaty (Kazakhstan).
Perhaps the reason for the weak economic and political relations is the lack of representative offices of countries that could promote each other’s interests and serve as a bridge. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have embassies in Georgia, are developing relations with Georgia more actively, in addition, they have direct flights. In 2021, 66,787 Kazakhstanis and 36,384 Uzbekistanis visited Georgia, which is 10 times more than the number of visitors from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Lack of centralized logistics centers and laboratories
In addition to air corridors, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan are connected by road transport corridors and railway routes. Both countries are included in the program of international cooperation between the European Union and TRACECA partner countries. Kyrgyzstan and Georgia signed a bilateral agreement on international road transport in 1997, currently there are only 2 road transport corridors, E60 (European route), which connects France-Switzerland-Austria-Germany-Hungary-Romania-Georgia-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan- Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan-China and AH5 (International Asian Network): China-Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey-Bulgaria.
As for the railways, there is only 1 corridor – a multimodal connection that unites the Asia-Pacific countries with Europe. Every year, representatives of the member countries meet and decide on the development of this route, which is designed to increase the volume of trade. Despite the presence of transport links, their potential is used inefficiently mainly due to the lack of logistics centers for the collection, storage and export of products from Kyrgyzstan (mainly agricultural products), as well as the lack of laboratories to comply with international export certificates.
Weak bilateral economic relations
Over the past 25 years, trade between countries has increased. In 2020, Georgia exported goods worth 18.3 million USD to Kyrgyzstan, while Kyrgyzstan exported only 5 million USD. The picture of trade turnover by years between the two countries looks like in Chart 1, with exports from Georgia to Kyrgyzstan exceeding imports from Kyrgyzstan to Georgia over the past 20 years. Exports from Georgia showed a constant growth until 2019, after which the COVID-19 pandemic occurred and growth decreased, but since 2020 one can again observe a peak in the history of trade between the countries.
Graph 1. Import and export of Georgia with Kyrgyzstan
From Georgia, this is mainly the export of cars, medicines, and alcoholic beverages, and from Kyrgyzstan, mainly mineral and oil products and vegetables. It is necessary to develop these relations, with an emphasis on the export of high-quality environmentally friendly agricultural products from Kyrgyzstan and drinks from Georgia.
Both countries are attractive for foreign investment. In Kyrgyzstan, investments go mainly to the manufacturing industry, mining, and exploration, and in Georgia – to the energy, financial and non-financial sectors.
Chart 2. Foreign direct investment
Source: From Kyrgyzstan to Georgia , From Georgia to Kyrgyzstan
Perhaps the turnover would have been greater if good transport routes had been established. Unfortunately, this question is still open. Georgia and Kyrgyzstan can also serve as logistics hubs for the delivery of goods to Europe and China (for countries with large consumer potential), if they do not see each other as the final consumers of exports.
In connection with the war in Ukraine, the development of bilateral and regional economic routes has become even more necessary. For Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, this could be an opportunity to develop trade relations with each other and possibly with the entire region of Central Asia and the Caucasus. Kyrgyzstan could become an importer of wheat products for Georgia and one of the markets for wine and drinks for Georgia.
Additional areas for strengthening cooperation
Due to the different way of life and thinking in Kyrgyzstan, there is a large gap between groups that support and do not support democracy, so it is necessary to start informing the population, especially from remote regions, who are most vulnerable to anti-democratic propaganda. The Center for Economic Policy Research in Georgia practices the distribution of non-fiction literature about political philosophy, democracy (by such authors as F. Fukuyama, D. McCain, D. Kramer, etc.) in Georgian and distributes it free of charge . In Kyrgyzstan, more than 60% of the population lives in rural areas, where the Kyrgyz language is predominantly used, and non-fiction in the Kyrgyz language can be counted on one hand. And most of those who oppose democracy are older generations and rural dwellers who do not fully understand the purpose and function of democracy. Therefore, it makes sense to translate such literature and spread the meaning of democracy through literature in online and print versions.
Civil society is an association of people to discuss government decisions and respond to socio-political changes. Their unification needs to be supported by the state, strengthened, especially in rural areas, where people’s rights are not particularly protected and are poorly communicated to decision makers. In Georgia, this is done by informing the population how to form a civil society and promote their interests. As Gigi Gigiadze (a researcher at the Center for Economic Policy Research) mentioned: “People with a post-Soviet mentality think that the government should make decisions and do everything for the population, but we should teach them that people should take actions and make decisions themselves.” Therefore, it is necessary to exchange best practices for the implementation and spread of democracy not only between Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, but also between the region of the North Caucasus and Central Asia.
In addition, for bilateral cooperation, it will be effective to establish contacts between the media, enlighten about culture and news in the two countries. In Kyrgyzstan, people have a very limited understanding of Georgia, their knowledge is limited to revolutions and Mikheil Saakashvili, a similar situation with the representation of Kyrgyzstan in Georgia. In both countries, media freedom is declining, which has a negative impact on the country’s reforms and development. Therefore, now it is necessary to create conditions for their development, especially independent ones, and the exchange of experience will serve as a lever for new ideas.
Georgia could also share the experience of its business programs. For example, “Remote from Georgia” for digital nomads, which was launched in August 2020 as a post-COVID-19 economic recovery measure. From launch to October 2021, 3,129 people from around the world have enrolled in the program, with 58% of applicants enrolling as freelancers, 29% as full-time employees, and 13% as self-employed. The largest number of applicants are from the USA, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, Japan, Great Britain, and Canada. Georgia could share its experience in the transition of the economy and politics to transparency and how they implement programs to attract investors.
Conclusion
Currently, cooperation between Georgia and Kyrgyzstan is still rather weak. Over the 30 years of independence, there have been attempts to strengthen cooperation from both the state and the private sector, but the remoteness of the countries by difficult mountain routes, customs barriers, and interference by third countries in regional cooperation hindered the development of relations. However, bilateral cooperation between Georgia and Kyrgyzstan is important for the development of their economies and democracies, as well as between the regions of Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
The main obstacles to active cooperation are the lack of logistical routes and direct flights, laboratories, and weak diplomatic ties. Therefore, the creation of transport and logistics links can be an effective start for the development of cooperation, as well as for strengthening diplomatic and cultural ties.