According to the experts, without high-quality demographic policy and its diligent implementation, population growth in Central Asian countries will be accompanied by a high burden on economies and increased poverty in these countries.
On the initiative of CABAR.asia analytical platform, the demographic analysts from four Central Asian countries (except Turkmenistan) discussed the existing demographic problems in the region, as well as the positive and negative consequences of high population growth in these countries.
They advise the governments of the countries and civil society to focus on the demographic issues and create all conditions for human capital improvement now, so as not to increase poverty and social problems.
According to the latest UN estimates, the current population of Central Asia is over 74.5 million people, which is about 1% of the global population. Over the past 10 years, the population of Central Asia has increased by an average of one million people annually. Despite the low living standards and high mortality rates in some countries, experts predict that the region’s population will grow.
According to the UN, population growth is approximately 1.66%, which is considered quite high. Central Asia remains one of the youngest regions, where the average age of residents is 27.6. A positive birth rate (about 3 children per woman of reproductive age) will allow this region to remain in the top by the reproduction of population for a long time.
These indicators are great for the preservation of the nation and human resources’ potential for the countries of the region. However, in countries with poor economies, population growth worsens poverty, overpopulation leads to a lack of resources, land, water, and a shortage of jobs, which is already observed in some Central Asian countries.
Influence of Religion and Traditional Values on Fertility Dynamics
Local traditions and religion continue to influence fertility in Central Asia. However, Islam does not prohibit family planning and requires parents to be responsible for their children, according to experts.
Azamat Seitov, the demographic analyst from Uzbekistan, Ph.D. of Sociological Sciences, said that religious and traditional family values have always influenced the high fertility rate in Uzbekistan, and now, they continue to influence this process. At the same time, the country’s residents make traditional family values a priority, he noted.
“All sociological surveys show that the creation of a family is a priority in Uzbekistan,” he said. “In developed countries, the average marriage age is over 30, but in Uzbekistan, it is 23-25 years for men, and even less for women. Moreover, if it turns out that a daughter-in-law in the family is infertile, this becomes one of the indisputable arguments for the family to break up,” Seitov said.
Nurbyubyu Kerimova, an independent expert from Kyrgyzstan, agrees with him. She believes that religion plays an important role in demographic processes in Kyrgyzstan as well.
“Kyrgyzstan is a religious country, where 80% of the population feel religious. There are many other confessions here, not only Islamic, that prohibit abortion. People say: “If God sends you children, they need to be born,” said Kerimova.
The situation is the same in Tajikistan, where, according to the UN, there is the highest population growth in the region – 2.4% annually. Currently, the population of this country is approaching 10 million people.
However, Akbar Subkhonov, head of the Department of Demographic Studies at the Institute of Economy and Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, notes that Islam does not prohibit family planning.
“Islam obliges us to raise our children well, to provide them with everything they need, with a good education and everything else,” he said.
Urbanisation and Education Improve Quality of Life
According to the Central Asian experts, the increase in the education level and urbanisation will improve the quality of life of the Central Asian population.
According to statistics, in cities (where there is better education, access to healthcare, and a higher standard of living), the number of children per family is less than in rural areas. In addition, women in cities are more educated and focused on building their careers.
It can be observed that in cities, the creation of families is postponed, so the average marriage age in cities is higher, said Shynar Tuleshova, an expert on demographic issues from Kazakhstan.
“I believe that if a woman receives education and builds her career, she postpones the birth of children. It depends on the level of education, on the position of the women in society,” she said.
She notes that Kazakhstan, which ranks ninth in the world by territory, has a low population density. In 2020, the population density was 6.8 people per square kilometre. As of June 1, 2021, the total population was, according to official data, 18 million 984 thousand people.
Shynar Tuleshova notes that the situation in Kazakhstan differs from other countries in the region, so the government supports the programs to stimulate the birth rate in the country.
The level of urbanisation in Kazakhstan is also higher than in other Central Asian countries: 59.2% of the population live in cities, and 40.8% are rural residents.
In Uzbekistan, the number of urban residents is also growing, so this process will contribute to the decline in the birth rate, according to Azamat Seitov.
Over the past 12 years, the urbanisation process in the country has intensified. Now, 50.7% of Uzbekistan residents live in cities, and 49.3% – in rural areas.
It is already possible to notice that families do not have 5-6 children (as 30 years earlier), but only three or four children. In cities, this figure is lower, with 2-3 children per family, the experts said.
The rates of urbanisation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are not as high as in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Only 27% of the population live in cities in Tajikistan, and about 38% – in Kyrgyzstan.
Therefore, the governments of these countries should focus on the improvement of the quality of life for rural residents, providing them with high-quality education and access to healthcare.
“The urbanisation rate in Tajikistan is low… There is an opinion among scientists that many children become a source of income for a poor family. If we want to improve the demographic situation, we must spread the urban lifestyle among the rural population. People themselves should understand what they want, therefore, it is necessary to develop urbanisation,” Subkhonov said.
To Combine the Efforts of Society
The governments of the Central Asian states understand that it is necessary to address the problems of demographic imbalances. The countries adopted state programs and strategies. However, all these programs do not have good leverage for implementation and sufficient financial support.
The authorities should contribute to improving the quality of life of the population, creating good conditions for jobs, introducing new technologies in the economy, and coordinating the actions of all sectors of society in their countries, the experts believe.
With proper regulation and greater attention to human capital, human resources are one of the opportunities for further growth of countries’ economies, according to Azamat Seitov.
“The birth control is pointless. And the state does not need to do it. We can only talk about creating conditions for the fullest possible personal realisation for citizens in compliance with all their constitutional rights, including freedom of expression, freedom of movement, etc. Only in this case, the conscious parenting can exist. As soon as awareness appears, we will get a powerful birth control regulator,” he said.
Shynar Tuleshova believes that the state should provide its citizens with access to good education and the opportunity to receive it for every member of society. However, a lot depends on the citizens themselves.
“It is necessary that families strive to ensure that every child receives a good education,” she said.
From the perspective of population reproduction, high population growth is good. However, from the perspective of the economy, the provision of material, spiritual and other benefits to children is another important issue that we should address, says Akbar Subkhonov.
The expert from Tajikistan advises paying more attention to the quality of life of rural regions’ residents.
“In Tajikistan, more than 70% of the population live in rural areas. We must study the availability of high-quality education and healthcare in the villages – can people afford it?” he said.
High quality of life in the countries, first of all, should be ensured by the state, whose tasks include providing funding for programs and coordinating the efforts of all segments of society, said Nurbyubyu Kerimova, social activist from Kyrgyzstan.
However, first, it is necessary to solve the problem of corruption in all countries of the region, she noted.
“If we want to become Singapore, the very first problem that needs to be addressed is corruption. If corruption is eradicated, there will be good human resources management. If there is good human resources management, there will be good education and good healthcare. These are the two pillars that provide a high-quality human capital,” concludes Nurbyubyu Kerimova.