As Central Asia grapples with the omnipresent spectre of climate change, the region finds itself at a crossroads of energy transition. The voyage towards decarbonisation is fraught with challenges, particularly with the precarious task of ensuring a ‘just transition’. Yet, amid these trials, lies the tantalising prospect of harnessing the region’s abundant renewable resources, and transforming energy infrastructures, bringing the nations closer to a sustainable future. To better understand these complexities, we turn to Dr Aliya Tskhay, a recognised expert in the field, who offers her incisive perspective on the subject.
Dr Aliya Tskhay is currently affiliated with the Institute of Middle East, Central Asia and Caucasus Studies at the University of St Andrews in the United Kingdom as a Research Associate. She received her Doctorate in International Relations from the University of St Andrews. Her academic interests encompass the comprehensive study of the worldwide energy sector, with a specific focus on the Eurasian region. She engages in a critical examination of various subjects, which includes but is not limited to energy security, nuclear energy development, the geopolitical dimensions of energy, and sustainable exploitation of energy resources.
CABAR.asia: Given the significant role of Central Asia in the energy security of major markets like Europe, Russia, and China due to its abundant fossil resources, how do you envision the transformation of the region towards a sustainable, low-carbon energy model without compromising its strategic importance and economic stability?
I think first it is important to explain the concept of decarbonisation, which has become a buzzword in discussions revolving around sustainability, the Paris Agreement, and climate change. Imagine the act of driving a car that runs on gasoline, a byproduct of oil. This combustion releases carbon dioxide or greenhouse gases, adding to air pollution and exacerbating the greenhouse effect. This process, in turn, accelerates climate change. Decarbonisation, in this context, refers to the transition to a lower or zero-carbon fuel such as hydrogen or lithium-ion battery. On a larger scale, it implies slashing the carbon footprint of various industries. Certain sectors, like transportation, may find it easier to transition, while others, such as the chemical industry, may face greater hurdles. Consequently, we find ourselves dealing with a spectrum of carbon usage ranging from zero-emission (renewable energy, for instance) to low-carbon.
One must consider the role of fossil fuels in Central Asia’s economic fabric as an apt starting point for this discussion. These nations are predominantly export-led economies, with vast portions of their profit margins tethered to the shipment of fossil fuels overseas. Conversely, the domestic energy sectors of these countries are anchored heavily in the usage of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, such as coal and natural gas, while renewables like hydropower account for but a fraction of the energy mix. Thus, there lies a dichotomy in the landscape of fuel extraction and exports.
In the complex geopolitical web spun across Central Asia, the strategic importance of these issues magnifies, especially considering the provision of additional energy resources to Europe. Furthermore, this region is pivotal for satiating China’s growing fossil fuel appetite. It’s a certainty that these economies will continue to prioritise fossil fuel extraction. This extraction process, in turn, gives rise to emissions from the use of these fuels.
However, the true challenge doesn’t necessarily stem from the extraction process itself. The lion’s share of greenhouse gas emissions actually arises from the end use of these fuels, like combustion for transport, heating, and industrial applications. This is referred to in technical jargon as “Scope 3 emissions”.
In Central Asia, where the energy sector relies heavily on fossil fuels, the focus of the energy transition naturally gravitates towards the domestic energy sector, and examining how entrenched these economies are in carbon-intensive practices. With economic stability in view, we return to the dichotomy – exports of natural resources form a crucial income stream for Central Asian nations. This income could potentially pave the way for transitioning domestic sectors towards a more low-carbon or even zero-carbon economic model.
CABAR.asia: Considering the commitments made by the Central Asian nations under the Paris Agreement through their first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), how would you evaluate their progress towards these goals? What specific strengths or weaknesses can you identify in each country’s approach to sustainable energy transition?
In the preceding biennium, Central Asian nations have updated their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a positive development signifying that governmental attention is increasingly trained on gauging possible progress. A shared feature of all five national NDCs is that the energy sectors consistently emerge as the most carbon-intensive. This is not a startling revelation, considering the continued prevalence of fossil fuel usage across Central Asian states. Therefore, governments are directing more effort towards trimming emissions emanating from the energy sector. These NDCs manifest ambitious targets for all five countries, a necessity as these strategic documents sketch the roadmap to fulfil Paris Agreement obligations. By setting lofty goals, the path to decarbonisation and a low-carbon economy is paved.
A common hurdle in this journey shared by all five Central Asian states is the need for investment. The energy transition envisioned necessitates substantial funding due to the sector’s technologically-intensive nature. Every country’s plan underscores the need for an immense injection of capital to scale up renewable energy, enhance energy efficiency, and improve accessibility. This influx is not only expected from domestic sources but also foreign direct investment (FDI). For instance, Kyrgyzstan’s NDC anticipates that over 60% of the budget required for energy transition and transformation will be sourced from FDI. This necessitates a rallying cry for international cooperation, beckoning institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, the European Union, the United Sstate, and other Western nations to step up. However, the likelihood of these investments hinges on the business climate within these countries and the performance of their legislative and regulatory systems. There remain numerous challenges in this domain. However, cooperation in climate change and renewable energy is being strategically depoliticised, making it less contingent on democratisation processes. Yet, the appeal of a country is invariably tied to these factors.
The issue of geography is another substantial challenge for Central Asia, which, surprisingly, is underrepresented in the NDCs and other strategic documents. The question of how Central Asian governments will navigate these geographical constraints remains unaddressed. The landscape varies vastly across the region. For instance, in the mountainous country of Tajikistan, it would be exceedingly challenging, bordering on impossibility, to facilitate renewable energy access to the high-altitude areas of Gorno-Badakhshan. This necessitates a unique energy approach for these regions. A nuanced understanding of each region and the different sectors’ decarbonisation strategies is conspicuously missing. This lack of clarity poses a substantial challenge to the parameters outlined in the Paris Agreement commitments.
CABAR.asia: The effects of climate change in Central Asia are increasingly tangible and are exacerbated by inefficient water management and insufficient state capacities to mitigate these impacts. Meanwhile, decarbonization efforts are still in their infancy, with a large-scale clean energy transition seemingly far off. How do you think Central Asian countries can accelerate their decarbonisation processes while simultaneously addressing climate change-induced challenges, especially concerning water resource management? And how can regional cooperation be encouraged to manage natural resources more effectively and adopt a coordinated approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation?
Paradoxically, it is water management and climate change that serve as the adhesive for cooperation amongst Central Asian nations. These states are deeply invested in working collaboratively in these spheres, a predictable development considering the regional impact and interconnectedness of these issues. This collaborative spirit was evident at COP-26 in Glasgow, where Central Asian delegations unified their presence rather than appearing as separate entities, thereby demonstrating the effectiveness of regional cooperation in this instance.
The topic of water management is frequently misconstrued or misrepresented in various media outlets, which invariably frame it in the light of water scarcity. However, the crux of the issue lies not in water deficiency but in the effective utilisation of available water. Climate change influences mountain glaciers, leading to diminishing water yields from these sources, thereby sharpening the focus on the efficient use of water.
A less explored area of discussion is the necessity of cooperation, which extends beyond mere physical infrastructure such as the modification of pipelines or usage of water dams. Indeed, social infrastructure — encompassing education and social campaigns — is of paramount importance. It is vital to educate the populace about simple water conservation measures like turning off the tap and not leaving the water running. Awareness should extend to practices that conserve water in both domestic scenarios and daily activities, as well as efficient water usage within workplaces.
Currently, there appears to be a growing awareness that climate change is having a tangible impact on Central Asia. It is no longer a distant concept relegated to news broadcasts or external narratives. The impact is increasingly apparent across the entire Central Asian region. This shift in consciousness provides a valuable opportunity for governments, in tandem with international partners, to educate citizens on the importance of efficiency.
CABAR.asia: In light of various local entrepreneurial initiatives aimed at waste management and promoting sustainable practices in Central Asia, how do you evaluate their impact on changing people’s behaviours and attitudes towards the environment? Furthermore, how can these micro-level efforts be scaled up and integrated into national decarbonisation and sustainability strategies to fill the gaps left by governmental programs?
The intriguing subject of waste management manifests as an area where considerable action occurs at the grassroots level rather than primarily being driven by government initiatives. The issue cascades in a domino-like effect, commencing with individual citizens sorting their waste. The sorted waste then necessitates governmental intervention for recycling, a process requiring substantial infrastructure like large recycling plants, which invites the participation of business entities. Herein lies the critical need for scalability.
Concurrently, at the micro-level, numerous campaigns and small non-governmental organisations are engaged in raising public awareness about responsible waste practices. This exercise is unfolding across Central Asian nations at varying intensities. Teaching people to repurpose and reuse waste is a pivotal step as it offers significant potential for mitigating the problem. The logic is clear: with population growth comes an increase in waste generation, an issue that won’t resolve itself. With materials like plastic bags persisting in the environment for centuries, accumulating waste represents an issue that’s escalating exponentially.
In response to the question of scaling up, it’s crucial for governments to comprehend the cyclical nature of the economy. Achieving this understanding poses a formidable challenge, given that it encompasses multiple stages, from sorting to recycling waste and then figuring out how to repurpose it. All these stages are interconnected, demanding concerted governmental action. While discussions about this are present at the governmental level, waste management has yet to top priority lists, regrettably. However, it’s reasonable to anticipate its emergence as a significant concern in the near future.
CABAR.asia: The concept of a ‘just transition’ has gained traction in some countries, proposing that decarbonization efforts must not only aim at reducing emissions but also tackle social and economic inequalities. How can this approach be implemented in the Central Asian context? Specifically, what policies can ensure that the transition to a low-carbon economy does not negatively impact vulnerable groups but instead contributes to reducing existing inequalities?
A great question and indeed one difficult to unravel! The term ‘just transition’ encapsulates the ambition to mitigate societal inequalities during environmental change. The notion, however, is a formidable challenge in practice. Take, for instance, communities tethered to oil production: employees and their dependents in oil fields. As economies strive for lower carbon emissions, the demand for oil shrinks. It raises the questions: what would become of these individuals? How would their livelihoods fare in the new economy? Ideally, ‘just transition’ entails retraining such workers for employment in renewable energy or other economic sectors. Yet, in truth, such transitions are challenging to accomplish globally. Scotland provides a relevant case: once heavily dependent on oil extraction, it now grapples with the conundrum of accommodating former oil workers as it pivots towards renewable energy.
In relation to Central Asian states, my criticism is the conspicuous absence of these discussions. Talks of renewable energy projects are plenty, yet the fate of vulnerable communities and their future employment remain untouched subjects. A stark illustration of this disregard for ‘just transition’ principles was the events in Kazakhstan in January of last year. A surge in fuel prices ignited social unrest with far-reaching consequences. At the heart of this tumult was the essence of ‘just transition’. As we transition to a low-carbon economy, rising fuel costs are inevitable, leading to higher bills. This means that vulnerable low-income groups might struggle to cover these costs. Hence, they must be either compensated or supported through governmental programmes, thrusting the discourse on social support to the forefront. Such discussions are strikingly missing, arguably due to the contentious nature of ‘just transition’ for Central Asian governments unsure of funding these initiatives. Parallels can be drawn with ‘just transition’ challenges faced even by affluent countries like Norway, Denmark, and the UK. Yet, what’s lacking in the Central Asian context is a vision for addressing ‘just transition’ issues and safeguarding vulnerable groups.
Recognising these vulnerabilities – pinpointing who will bear the brunt of the energy transition – is crucial. This necessitates socio-economic studies identifying the victors and victims of this transition, followed by policy development – a lengthy and complex procedure. Whether such an approach is currently in motion remains uncertain. Scotland, for example, only recently published a draft ‘Just Transition’ Policy, a process spanning a decade or more. It’s a formidable task for any nation. Central Asian governments should raise this issue with their partners and seek assistance, fostering regional and international cooperation.
Another facet of the ‘justice discourse’ is Central Asia’s abundant reserves of rare earth metals, essential for the renewable energy industry. At present, the region has not capitalised on these resources. However, once global scale-up occurs and a fresh wave of renewable energy negotiations commences with potential partners, justice-related concerns connected to mining will surface. New socio-health challenges, pollution, and other issues associated with extractivism could emerge, mirroring existing problems related to coal, oil, and gas extraction.
How should Central Asian countries safeguard their citizens and ensure their rights in the face of incoming investors? It’s a double-edged sword: governments must advance on social and environmental protection fronts, but excessive regulation can deter foreign investment. Striking a balance is critical. Corporate social responsibility alone may be insufficient; a corporation might construct a school or hospital, but this doesn’t necessarily offset the environmental damage and resulting implications. Governments in Central Asia should show more assertiveness in protecting their citizens and enforcing environmental safeguards. Outside of the state, the responsibility for citizen protection falls short. Corporations may tout ethical considerations in their PR efforts, but practical protections are often lacking. This broader justice debate, ongoing in Central Asia and worldwide, questions accountability in the event of industrial accidents, leaks, and environmental disasters. Here, social activists play an instrumental role, in driving positive change with their proactive engagement.
CABAR.asia: Which regional models of decarbonisation have shown particular success and could be instrumental for Central Asia in tackling its own decarbonisation process? How could these models be adapted to account for the unique socio-economic and environmental challenges faced by Central Asian countries?
This moment could indeed be a turning point for Central Asia, a region that has all the necessary components and support to display a bolder front. If we are to jump from reliance on coal to embracing renewables, a tentative, baby-step approach might not suffice. Since the region is already on the brink of hefty investments in infrastructure revitalisation, it would be wise to make bold strides and stay ahead of the curve. For instance, as we ponder upgrading the electricity grid, it’s prudent to already equip it for a future dominated by renewable energy. Why not decentralise it further? Why not embrace smart technologies more fully?
In essence, Central Asia needs to project itself into the future, mapping out an energy landscape for the next two decades, underpinned by a well-crafted, strategic approach. The focus needs to shift from mere gasification – admittedly a grand topic in its own right – to encompass a broader spectrum of technologies. Green hydrogen is currently stirring significant interest, to cite one example.
The implementation of heat pumps and the provision of small-grid electricity to remote villages could result in a complete economic transformation. Illustrations of this can already be found in certain parts of East Asia and Africa, where small-scale, localised electricity provision has delivered robust economic benefits. This is a policy area ripe for exploration – and the added advantage is that it does not necessitate extensive financial investments.
For further insight into the topics we have discussed during this interview, I would recommend the following readings for the audience of CABAR the following works:
- Vaclav Smil (2022) How the world really works: A scientist’s guide to past, present and future
- Eds. Rahat Sabyrbekov, Indra Overland, Roman Vakulchuk (2023) Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy
- Daniel Yergin (2020) The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations
Main photo: Shutterstock.