In September, foreign analytical articles on Central Asia focused on regional integration, energy issues, attacks on independent press, balancing foreign relations, and the 5th Consultative meeting of the Heads of State.
From Disintegration to Cooperation: Kazakhstan’s Perspective in Central Asian Integration
The Modern Diplomacy article argues that the war between Ukraine and Russia has highlighted the need for a shift in the stance of Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan. The deteriorating perception of Russia and the expanding influence of China have raised concerns about the region’s security. Therefore, the article posits that Kazakhstan should prioritize the integration of Central Asia in its foreign policy. The article then outlines the three upcoming trends in the integration process. Firstly, the article states that the establishment of a robust and autonomous institution, free from the influence of Russia and China, is of utmost importance. Secondly, intra-regional trade would play a pivotal role in the integration process. Central Asia may not present significant economic attractiveness for Kazakhstan at the moment comparing to EUEA, but in the long term, the region may offer valuable opportunities for Kazakhstan’s development. Thirdly, the relations between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are crucial for the region’s long-term growth prospects as they shape the regional climate. Finally, the integration process is significantly influenced by the advancement of transportation and communication systems.
Kazakhstan Aims To Protect The Blue While Going Green
Kazakhstan’s energy and environmental issues were discussed in the Eurasia Review article by Wilder Alejandro Sanchez. The main message of the article is two-fold. First, Astana will focus more heavily on protecting the country’s water resources, which has an unavoidable foreign policy component. Moreover, the Kazakhstani government will be turning to green energy while similarly considering nuclear power. Sanchez argues that water policies can be a catalyst to promote Central Asian and Trans-Caspian regional cooperation, given that other regional states have similar water-related challenges. Joint water policies must be implemented rather than fighting over water, says Sanchez. Moreover, the article also states that given the complex international situation and the possibility of future inter-state tensions and conflict, countries across the globe will be eagerly attempting to minimize their energy dependency and create supply chains with reliable partners, not potential foes. Finally, if Kazakhstan decides to go for a nuclear energy, the article states, uranium supply for a hypothetical nuclear plant would not be a challenge.
‘We’ll still exist’: Kyrgyz investigative reporters defy officials’ threats
OpenDemocracy published an interview with Aidai Irgebaeva, editor of the Kyrgyzstani media Kloop about why the independent press in Kyrgyzstan is under systemic attack. On August 28, Kyrgyz prosecutors filed a lawsuit demanding the liquidation of the Kloop Media Foundation, which runs the Kloop publication. OpenDemocracy interviewer asks the Kloop editor if the lawsuit is a form of retaliation for the publication of investigation that revealed that the main investors in the Barcelona academy, a new football academy in Kyrgyzstan opened in late August, were relatives of President Japarov and his head of national security, Kamchybek Tashiyev. Kloop editor Aidai Irgebaeva believes that the lawsuit is a retaliatory measure for their investigative work.
Despite the threats, Irgebaeva confirms that Kloop remains resolute in its commitment to continue its journalistic endeavors. This case also sheds light on the broader challenges faced by media outlets in Kyrgyzstan. The lawsuit against Kloop, which has gone from a blog site for teenagers and students to a leading source of news, investigations and data journalism in the past 15 years, is seen by many as an attempt to suppress critical voices and limit freedom of expression.
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan presidents meet to tamp down border tensions
The Eurasianet.org article talks about the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan holding talks in New York on September 19 on the sidelines of the ongoing UN General Assembly to address border tensions between the two countries. It was the second time in the space of a week in an apparent effort to soothe a surge in tensions over border issues. As around one-third of the border remains unresolved, the head of Kyrgyzstan’s security services had previously demanded that Tajikistan relinquish its territorial claims, which likely contributed to the tensions between the two nations.
Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been involved in an arms race, with Kyrgyzstan acquiring Turkish-made drones and Tajikistan developing its own unmanned aerial vehicles. The article states this indicates a potential escalation of the conflict if not resolved peacefully. Mediators are actively working to find a resolution to the border dispute, indicating that diplomatic efforts are ongoing.
Tajikistan plans a million tonnes of hydropower-based green hydrogen by 2040 — but is that realistic?
Tajikistan’s aim to produce one million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2040 is evaluated by the Hydrogeninsight article highlighting the concerns raised by analysts regarding the feasibility of this target. According to a report by the UN Economic Commission for Europe, Tajikistan’s maximum potential for renewable hydrogen production is estimated to be significantly lower, at 204,000 tonnes per year.
The article also questions Tajikistan’s export prospects to neighboring countries and Europe. Tajikistan’s limited access to open sea and the long distances from EU member states further restrict its export opportunities to Europe. Additionally, China, which shares a land border with Tajikistan, has not expressed any plans to import hydrogen and is instead concentrating on its own green hydrogen projects.
The article mentions that Tajikistan has taken steps to reduce oil imports for transport fuel by waiving taxes and import duties on imported electric cars. However, it highlights the importance of affordable supply and refueling infrastructure for the success of hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Tajikistan: suppressing critical voices
The Civicus report, covering developments affecting the freedoms of expression, association and peaceful assembly in Tajikistan for the period from April to September 2023, discusses the government’s crackdown on journalists, bloggers, and the media, using broad criminal charges of “extremism” and “terrorism” to silence critical voices. Independent news outlets have been shut down, and access to information has been limited. The government has also targeted individuals living outside the country, extraditing them and accusing them of “extremism” based on their social media activity. Despite the adoption of a National Human Rights Strategy, the government’s actions continue to suppress critical voices and restrict the operating space for civil society organizations.
The article also discusses the government’s crackdown on individuals accused of collaborating with the political opposition, which has been banned since 2015. The anti-extremism laws in Tajikistan have been criticized for their vague definition of extremism and potential for abuse.
The report further highlights the significant increase in the liquidation of NGOs in Tajikistan, with over 700 organizations being shut down in the past year and a half. NGOs in the GBAO region have been closed down, allegedly due to their ties with banned criminal groups. The government has tightened control over institutions related to the Aga Khan Development Network.
Turkmenistan Deal Signals New Era in Regional Energy Security
The Hudson article discusses Turkmenistan’s efforts to export its significant natural gas reserves to new markets. It highlights the recent agreement between Turkmenistan and Iraq, which could potentially allow Turkmen gas to be sold to Iraq for the first time. This agreement comes as Iraq seeks alternatives to its current gas imports. Furthermore, the article mentions the political agreement signed between Hungary and Turkmenistan, which opens up the possibility of exporting Turkmen gas to Hungarian markets in the future.
The construction of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline is also highlighted as a positive development. This pipeline would enable Turkmen gas to enter the existing Southern Gas Corridor pipeline system, providing a direct route to European markets. The article emphasizes that these developments have significant implications for regional energy security and could bring economic benefits to Turkmenistan and the broader region.
Overall, the article suggests that these recent developments signify a new era in regional energy dynamics and present opportunities for Turkmenistan to strengthen its position as a gas exporter.
Turkmenistan: Playing it by the textbook
The Eurasianet.org article argues that Turkmenistan finds itself in a delicate position as it navigates its foreign relations, attempting to strike a balance between maintaining ties with Western economic partners and showing its sympathies towards Russia. The country’s ambassador to Belgium recently presented credentials to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, emphasizing Turkmenistan’s role in regional stability and security. This move aimed to strengthen its relationship with Western allies.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to hold significant influence in Turkmenistan. The recent visit of the Governor of St. Petersburg to Ashgabat underscores the ongoing importance of the Russian-Turkmen relationship, both in terms of business and politics. At the same time, the country’s foreign minister traveled to France to explore commercial opportunities, and President Serdar Berdymukhamedov is expected to visit Germany in the near future, further highlighting Turkmenistan’s efforts to maintain ties with Western partners.
Overall, the article concludes that Turkmenistan finds itself in a complex position, attempting to balance its relationships with both Western nations and Russia, while also grappling with internal challenges.
Uzbekistan in the United States: A Path for Stronger Partnerships
The Caspian Policy Center article discusses Uzbekistan’s efforts to strengthen its partnerships with the United States through various diplomatic and economic initiatives. The recent United Nations General Assembly meetings provided an opportunity for Uzbekistan to showcase its commitment to enhancing ties with the United States. During President Mirziyoyev’s visit to the United States in 2018, the number of U.S. companies operating in Uzbekistan doubled, reaching 300 in 2023. The article highlights the Uzbek-American Business Forum, where several agreements were signed to promote investments and develop stronger supply chains between the two countries.
Additionally, President Mirziyoyev met with leaders of international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, to explore opportunities for collaborative efforts and expand their activities in Uzbekistan. These diplomatic and economic engagements between Uzbekistan and the United States signify a wider trend in Central Asia, as the region is beginning to turn towards the West.
Uzbekistan Walks Careful Line in a Fractured World
Similarly, the Bloomberg article discusses Uzbekistan’s efforts to balance its economic interests between the US, Russia, and China. It highlights Uzbekistan’s goal of doubling its GDP by 2030 and the recognition of the need to diversify partnerships to achieve this objective. Uzbekistan views China as a significant trade and investment partner, particularly in the renewable energy sector. Simultaneously, the country maintains strong ties with Russia, one of its largest trading partners. Additionally, Uzbekistan seeks investment from the US, particularly in the high-tech sector. The article also addresses Uzbekistan’s efforts to prevent the transshipment of prohibited goods from the US and Europe to Russia. Uzbek Ambassador to US is quoted saying that Uzbekistan has been working with the US Treasury to keep those goods from crossing its borders.
Central Asia Consultative Meeting: Strengthening Regional Ties and Expanding Horizons
As reported by the Caspian Policy Center, the 5th Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia took place in Dushanbe, Tajikistan on September 14 and brought together leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan. It marked a significant milestone as it was the first time a country leader from outside Central Asia participated in the conference.
One of the key concerns expressed by the leaders was the impact of geopolitical rivalries on Central Asia. They recognized the potential negative consequences of such rivalries and emphasized the need to strengthen regional ties in order to mitigate these effects. The meeting resulted in the signing of several agreements, including the Joint Statements on the results of the Fifth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of the State of Central Asia, an Agreement on General Direction for Youth Policy among the five Central Asian countries, and an Agreement on Strengthening Land Transport Connectivity in Central Asia.
Overall, the article highlights the importance of regional cooperation in Central Asia and the efforts made by the leaders to address common challenges and promote shared interests.
The United States Must Strengthen Its Engagement with Central Asia
The Atlantic Council published an article by its nonresident fellow Mark Temnycky highlighting the necessity for the United States to bolster its involvement in Central Asia as a means to counterbalance China’s expanding influence in the region. The article underscores the strategic significance of Central Asia due to its advantageous geographical location and abundant natural resources, which align with the interests of the United States.
Furthermore, the article emphasizes the upcoming US-Central Asian summit as a pivotal opportunity for the Biden administration to deepen its engagement with the region. It suggests that the summit could serve as a platform for the United States to forge stronger ties with Central Asian countries and address shared concerns, such as regional stability, counterterrorism efforts, and energy security.
The article underscores the importance of countering China’s influence in Central Asia, as China’s Belt and Road Initiative has gained significant traction in the region. It argues that the United States must act swiftly to prevent China from establishing a dominant position in Central Asia, which could have adverse implications for US interests and regional stability.
Iran Losing Out to Turkey in Central Asia, Frustrating Tehran
In a recent publication by the Jamestown Foundation, Iran’s decline of influence over Tajikistan was discussed as compared to the influence of Turkey. Historically, Iran has relied on its strong ties with Tajikistan, but recent developments have revealed a less secure position for Iran in the country. On the other hand, Turkey is steadily increasing its regional influence, primarily through expanded Azerbaijani activity in the region. This presence of Azerbaijan in Tajikistan is perceived as part of Turkey’s strategy to undermine Iran’s authority in Central Asia.
The implications of these developments have raised concerns for both Iran and Russia, prompting them to potentially align their policies in response. Furthermore, the United States has expressed its support for a decrease in Iranian and Russian influence in Central Asia.
Interestingly, the paper also highlights that the distinction between the Turkic republics and Persian-speaking Tajikistan is becoming less significant. Instead, the focus is shifting towards the growing ties among the countries in the region and their connections to Azerbaijan and Turkey, which are increasingly seen as having more consequential implications.