The October analytical pieces in foreign press focused on the devastating accident at an ArcelorMittal mine in Kazakhstan, another controversial law in Kyrgyzstan, repressive tactics in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, power struggles in Turkmenistan, and Russia’s gas shipments in Uzbekistan.
Kazakhstan mourns after ArcelorMittal mine disaster kills 45
As reported by The Guardian, Kazakhstan declared a state of national mourning following a devastating fire at an ArcelorMittal mine that resulted in the death of 45 individuals (the final death toll reached 46 people – ed.). This tragic incident is considered the worst accident in the nation’s history since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The severity of the event might lead to the nationalization of ArcelorMittal’s local affiliate. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has terminated all cooperation with ArcelorMittal, branding it as the worst enterprise in the history of Kazakhstan. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, approximately 200 miners have lost their lives in Kazakhstan, with the majority of these fatalities occurring at ArcelorMittal sites. Initially, the arrival of the company in Kazakhstan was viewed as a promising development, but it has since been criticized for its lack of investment and subpar safety standards.
Kazakhstan Faces Variety of Separatist Threats, Any of Which Russia Could Use
The Jamestown Foundation discusses the strained relations between Kazakhstan and Russia since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the separatist sentiments in Kazakhstan. The article states that there are three potential sources of separatism: ethnic Russians, non-Kazakh minorities, and sub-groups within the Kazakh nation. Despite the declining ethnic Russian population, the remaining individuals may be more susceptible to Moscow’s influence. Kazakhstan has strongly opposed Russian separatism, but also faces separatist challenges from non-Russian minorities and within its own nation. These divisions could potentially be exploited by Russia or other foreign powers. To counter these divisions, Kazakhstan’s president is advocating for a civic identity. However, this approach carries its own risks. Western analysts and governments should be cognizant of these potential issues as they assist Kazakhstan in distancing itself from Russia, the article concludes.
The Hidden Costs of Kazakhstan’s Engagement with China: A Decade of the Belt and Road
As Caspian Policy Center reports, despite China’s socio-economic issues, it continues to pursue infrastructure projects in Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan. However, these projects carry hidden costs and risks. China’s economic deflation, aging population, declining trade relations, and stagnant consumer prices could negatively impact the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. China’s lending practices and infrastructure focus leave Central Asia susceptible to China’s economic problems. The unequal relationship puts pressure on resource-rich and export-dependent economies, leading to significant debt accumulation, hindering industrial development, and causing environmental and social risks. In recent years, Kazakhstan has accumulated a large sum of hidden debts, nearly 16% of its total GDP, the article highlights. BRI projects have also been affected by implementation issues, corruption, and delays. China’s promises of global goods distribution through the BRI have not been fulfilled, with China instead increasing its ownership and extraction of Kazakhstan’s natural resources. China’s reliance on traditional energy resources contradicts its carbon emission targets, and it has failed to finance upgrades to Kazakhstan’s energy grid.
The problem is that if countries in Central Asia continue to implement these projects and take on the debt that comes with them, they won’t be left with any alternatives. Institutions like the IMF may consider them too risky to bail out. Soon, China might not be able to afford to solve the complex problems with which it has riddled Central Asia, the article warns.
Kyrgyzstan Scoffs at Checks and Balances with Dodgy Law on High Court Decisions
As Radio Free Liberty informs, Kyrgyzstan has enacted a controversial law that empowers the president to overturn Constitutional Court rulings if they are perceived to violate national morals. The law’s ambiguity in defining ‘moral laws’ has sparked concerns over the balance of power and the potential for erroneous decisions. The necessity for this law was underscored by a court ruling that permitted citizens to use a mother’s name instead of a patronymic, a move viewed as contravening Kyrgyz tradition. Critics argue that this law is a tool to curtail the court’s authority and augment the president’s power. The country’s parliament has been progressively losing influence on the executive branch, and this law is seen as a further erosion of checks and balances.
Kyrgyzstan: Security services declare all-out war on criminal underworld
According to the Eurasianet platform, in a recent development, the security services in Kyrgyzstan have launched an aggressive campaign against the criminal underworld, prompted by the assassination of a prominent gangland figure. This crackdown has resulted in a series of arrests and asset seizures, targeting not only members of criminal organizations but also individuals associated with them.
The magnitude of the criminal enterprise has been exposed during this operation, as it is estimated that the slain crime boss had amassed a fortune of approximately $1 billion. In addition to dismantling criminal networks, the security services are also focusing on uncovering and severing political ties between crime bosses and the country’s political landscape.
To bolster their efforts, the government of Kyrgyzstan is investing in the expansion and modernization of the security services. As part of this initiative, a Coordination Center for Cybersecurity is being established, highlighting the growing importance of addressing cyber threats in the fight against organized crime.
Cautious Hopes Mounting for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Border Deal
Caspian Post informs that in a recent meeting, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan engaged in discussions regarding the demarcation and delimitation of their shared border. With hopes of achieving a breakthrough in the border deal, the leaders managed to resolve some differences that had persisted for nearly two decades. The border, spanning approximately 980 kilometers, still lacks definition in about one-third of its length. Since 2002, negotiations have been ongoing, often marred by outbreaks of violence in the border areas, resulting in significant destruction and loss of life. Although the recent talks have yielded a protocol that could potentially serve as the foundation for resolving all border issues, no specific details have been disclosed, leading to conflicting claims about the outcome of the discussions. Both presidents have adopted a conciliatory approach in their recent meetings, signaling a willingness to find common ground and reach a mutually beneficial agreement.
Tajikistan: Authorities use relatives as pawns against exiled activists
In a recent article by the Eurasianet platform, it has been revealed that authorities in Tajikistan are resorting to using the relatives of exiled activists as pawns in order to pressure and punish them. The tactics employed by the government were brought to light when President Emomali Rahmon faced protests by Tajik political activists during his visit to Germany. Although the authorities were unable to take direct action against the protesters in Europe, they resorted to targeting the family members of opposition activists residing in Tajikistan.
The family members of these activists are often subjected to detention and questioning, with authorities seeking information about their involvement in protests and political activities. While the authorities and their proxies deny any involvement in using family members as pawns, there is evidence suggesting the contrary. Social media trolls have been observed justifying the harassment, further indicating the complicity of the authorities in these actions.
This disturbing revelation sheds light on the lengths to which the Tajikistan government is willing to go in order to suppress dissent and maintain control.
A Brief Chronicle of Enforced Disappearances in Tajikistan
The Diplomat article also delves into the issue of enforced disappearances in Tajikistan, shedding light on the case of Ehson Odinaev, a vocal critic of the Tajik government who vanished in 2015. It explores how enforced disappearances have become a tool of repression employed by the Tajik government, with a particular focus on targeting political opponents, journalists, lawyers, and activists. The article also highlights the complicity of other nations, including Russia, Turkey, and Belarus, in facilitating transnational repression orchestrated by Tajikistan.
In response to these grave human rights violations, the article urges Tajikistan’s international partners to exert pressure on the government to sign and ratify the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance. It further emphasizes the importance of consistently raising the issue of human rights abuses in Tajikistan at every available opportunity. Additionally, the article recommends the implementation of targeted sanctions against the individuals responsible for these atrocities.
By shedding light on the plight of victims like Ehson Odinaev and advocating for concrete actions, the article aims to draw attention to the urgent need for accountability and justice in Tajikistan.
Why has Turkmenistan’s succession plan gone sideways?
The Global Voices article discusses the succession crisis in Turkmenistan, where a power struggle between the current president, Serdar Berdymuhamedov, and his father, former president Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, has disrupted the country’s leadership and succession plan. This unique situation, where both father and son are alive and politically active, has raised concerns among neighboring countries that have experienced difficulties with power transitions. The paper highlights that the succession crisis in Turkmenistan presents an opportunity for other authoritarian regimes to observe and understand the challenges of transitioning power from father to son.
Several factors contribute to the unfolding political debacle in Turkmenistan. The country’s isolation, the significance of its natural gas reserves, and the creation of a personality cult around its leaders are identified as key reasons. The power transition has been far from smooth, with the father reclaiming power and the son not adhering to the power-sharing mechanism. Intra-family conflict and a desire for revenge against family members have also played a role in the succession plan going awry.
Overall, the article emphasizes the importance of studying and analyzing the complexities and challenges associated with power transitions in authoritarian contexts, using the case of Turkmenistan as a valuable example.
Turkmenistan Revives Call For Gas Pipeline To Europe
Barron’s reports that Turkmenistan has recently rekindled the notion of constructing a gas pipeline to Europe, in response to Western nations’ quest for alternative sources of gas outside of Russia. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, a project that has been under discussion since the 1990s, would be situated beneath the Caspian Sea and would ultimately reach Turkey. The revival of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project comes at a time when Western countries are actively seeking alternatives to Russian gas, in order to reduce their dependence on Russia as a gas supplier. Turkmenistan’s vast gas reserves make it an attractive potential source for Europe, and the pipeline would provide a direct route for Turkmen gas to reach European markets.
However, the pipeline has encountered significant opposition and logistical obstacles throughout its history. Russia has raised concerns about the environmental impact of the pipeline and its potential to disrupt the delicate ecosystem of the Caspian Sea. Despite these challenges, the article concludes, Turkmenistan is determined to explore new markets for its gas and reduce its reliance on China as its primary export destination.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev: Why is reformist Uzbek leader arresting bloggers?
BBC writes that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, often viewed as a reformist leader, is facing backlash for the arrest of bloggers and citizen journalists. Among those detained is YouTuber Olimjon Haydarov, who has been charged with extortion and could face up to a decade in prison if convicted. Similar charges have been leveled against other bloggers and journalists, sparking concerns about the diminishing freedom of speech in the country. These actions have tarnished Mirziyoyev’s reputation as a reformer. Citizen journalists have been instrumental in expanding media freedoms in Uzbekistan, but these recent arrests suggest a suppression of free speech. Critics contend that these arrests harken back to the country’s Soviet past and could potentially damage its international standing.
The legal battles over ‘princess of Uzbekistan’ and her frozen millions
Financial Times writes that the ongoing legal disputes surrounding Gulnara Karimova, often referred to as the “princess of Uzbekistan,” and her frozen $840 million fortune are under scrutiny. The fortune, currently held in Swiss bank vaults by government order, is the subject of a legal battle in Swiss civil courts to determine its rightful owner. The Swiss and Uzbek governments, Zeromax’s creditors (a holding company suspected to be a front for Karimova), and Karimova herself are all contesting for the fortune. The trial against Karimova, presently incarcerated in Tashkent, could reveal the origins of her wealth. Zeromax’s creditors accuse the Swiss government of a conspiracy to distort justice and undermine their claim. Karimova, on the other hand, insists on her innocence and claims that the money in Swiss banks is rightfully hers. The legal disputes are riddled with allegations of corruption and bribery, and the case’s outcome remains uncertain.
Central Asia and the South Caucasus Draw Closer Together
An article by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses the increasing connectivity between the South Caucasus and Central Asia as Russia’s influence in the region diminishes. It suggests that this trend could potentially create a new bridge between the European Union (EU) and China. The ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia’s declining ability to project power have contributed to the growing regional connectivity. The Middle Corridor, a trade route stretching from the Black Sea to Central Asia, is gaining significance in this context. Major global powers such as China and the EU are supportive of closer ties between these two regions.
Furthermore, the countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia are aligning their foreign policy outlooks, further enhancing regional integration. However, the article also highlights the challenges and potential instability that may arise in the region. Despite this, the pursuit of “multi-alignment” is affording smaller actors greater flexibility in their decision-making.
In conclusion, the Middle Corridor is identified as a crucial factor in facilitating the connection between the EU and China. As Russia’s influence wanes, the South Caucasus and Central Asia are becoming more interconnected, presenting an opportunity for increased cooperation and economic integration between these regions and the major global powers.
Central Asia in Focus: Russia Starts Shipping Gas to Uzbekistan
The latest “Central Asia in Focus” by Bruce Pannier of Radio Free Liberty Europe discusses major Central Asian news. It is reported that Russia has initiated gas shipments to Central Asia for the first time in history. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev attended an October 7 ceremony in Moscow to launch the start of Russian gas shipments to Uzbekistan.
This move comes as Uzbekistan grapples with electricity and heating shortages, prompting the country to strike a deal to import 2.8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually. Furthermore, Kazakhstan is currently engaged in discussions with Gazprom regarding the purchase of gas, as the nation faced severe energy shortages during the previous winter.
US Summit Reflects Decline in Russia’s Position in Central Asia
The recent Central Asia 5+1 Summit, attended by President Joe Biden and Central Asian presidents, reflects the diminishing influence of Russia in Central Asia, states an article by Jamestown Foundation. Central Asian governments have expressed dissatisfaction with Russia’s actions in Ukraine and its failure to prioritize their interests. Russia’s struggling economy also hampers its ability to provide necessary economic investments to Central Asian countries. China’s growing influence in the region further underscores Russia’s decline. The summit indicates a resurgence of American interest in Central Asia and the emergence of Central Asian states asserting their independence from Russian dominance. Despite this, Russia still retains some influence in the region, as evidenced by its naval base in Abkhazia. However, Russia’s position in Central Asia is increasingly precarious due to pressure from internal, regional, and external powers. Signs of regional cooperation are emerging, with proposals for increased collaboration in various areas. The United States can offer environmental and economic projects to the region, providing an alternative to China and Russia’s offerings. It is beneficial for Central Asian states and the United States to build on President Biden’s summit and foster regional unity.