May’s analytical articles in foreign press discussed Kazakhstan’s foreign relations, a new form authoritarianism in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan’s widening crackdown on human rights activists, Turkmenistan’s rising geopolitical role, as well as the 2023 China-Central Asia summit.
Kazakhstan’s Uranium Exacerbating Geopolitical Conflict in Eurasia
An article by Jamestown Foundation discusses Kazakhstan’s position as the largest producer and exporter of uranium globally and how it has triggered a geo-economic competition that is rapidly growing into a geopolitical one. Two important decisions have been made in May in Astana that have exacerbated the situation. The first decision was allowing a Russian firm to take control of a uranium mine, and the second decision was agreeing to sell Beijing more than 30 tons of atomic power station fuel over the coming decades.
The author argues that these latest moves highlight important realities about Central Asia and its relationship to outside actors that are often overlooked. First, China has interests in the region that are far larger than just building transportation routes to carry goods across and from Europe. Second, Beijing’s interest in these additional factors will only add to the differences it has with Moscow on how to deal with the Central Asian countries. Indeed, the Kremlin may be more worried about Chinese involvement within these countries on behalf of its interests than it is by China’s promotion of rail and highway routes bypassing Russia. The article also highlights the importance of understanding the geopolitical implications of resource competition and the need for countries to develop strategies to manage these tensions.
Center for European Policy Analysis also discusses Kazakhstan’s efforts to position itself as a leader in Central Asia and maintain a balance of power between the West and China in light of the Astana International Forum set for June 8-9. According to the author, Kazakhstan has been working to establish itself as a regional leader in Central Asia, and its efforts have been paying off. The country has been successful in attracting foreign investment, particularly from China, which has become one of its top five foreign investors. However, Kazakhstan is also aware of the risks of becoming too dependent on any one country, and is seeking to maintain a balance of power between the West and China. As a result, Kazakhstan is likely to remain an important player in the region for years to come, the article concludes.
New Wave Authoritarianism in Kyrgyzstan
“Sadyr Japarov represents a shift from old-school authoritarianism to new-wave methods of consolidating illiberal, autocratic power under the guise of popular support”, states an article by The Diplomat. According to the article, Japarov has used traditional and nationalist appeals to Kyrgyz citizens, particularly in rural communities, to bolster his image as a man of the people. He has used his popular support to change Kyrgyzstan’s constitution to tighten executive power and curb liberal freedoms in the country in the name of “the people.” Japarov’s populism spread rapidly through social media platforms, which make it easier for modern-day autocrats to generate direct appeals to their constituents.
The article argues that this style of consolidating autocratic power is representative of broader geopolitical trends toward ethnonationalism, nativism, and populism. These trends are characterized by a rejection of liberal democratic values and a focus on the interests of the nation or the people. While old-school authoritarianism made no claims to be democratic and relied on weak institutions to silence dissent, populism, as we have seen in Kyrgyzstan, relies on democratic structures to justify and perpetrate illiberalism, the article concludes.
Kyrgyzstan Security Forces Eliminated a Terrorist Near Bishkek: Why Does It Matter?
Special Eurasia article reports that according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kyrgyzstan, on May 17th, 2023, in the village of Dmitrievka in the Chui region, Kyrgyz security forces eliminated a suspected terrorist who participated in hostilities in Syria. The article highlights that this case brings to light the terrorism problem in Kyrgyzstan. Even though the country has not recently registered violent attacks, because hundreds of Kyrgyz citizens joined the rank of the Islamic State, Kyrgyzstan is not immune to jihadist propaganda or terrorist groups’ activities.
The lack of freedom and the Government’s crackdown against political opposition might create a fertile ground for jihadist propaganda, especially that of the Islamic State, the article argues. Indeed, since 2021, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has been increasing their propaganda output by directly targeting regional countries calling for attacks against local governments and jihad in Central Asia.
On the other hand, as Human Rights Watch stressed in a report, new judicial cases showed that the Kyrgyz authorities have continued to prosecute people under the vague definition of extremism in the legislation, which can recognise such non-violent actions as ‘humiliation of national dignity’, not reaching the level of a threat to national security ‘hooligan acts and acts of vandalism’, as well as the distribution of extremist materials. If the Bishkek government is exploiting extremism as a form of political contrast, this approach could magnify internal political vulnerability and prompt citizens towards radicalisation in the light of the reduction of citizens’ freedoms and rights in recent years.
Tajikistan: Independent Journalist Handed Seven-Year Sentence In Widening Crackdown
The International Partnership for Human Rights (IPHR) reports that on 26 May 2023, a local court in the city of Penjikent in Tajikistan’s Sughd region sentenced journalist Khurshed Fozilov to seven years’ imprisonment on charges of cooperating with banned organizations. Fozilov, who was first detained by regional security services in Penjikent on 6 March 2023, has worked with both national and international media outlets, covering problems faced by ordinary people in his home region and frequently criticizing local authorities. He has also actively engaged on social media.
The verdict issued against Fozilov is highly troubling and forms part of a widening crackdown on independent journalists in Tajikistan, the article states. Since last year, at least seven journalists and bloggers have been imprisoned in the country on charges of spreading false information, involvement in extremist activities, and cooperation with banned organizations. Out of these, four journalists (Daleri Imomali, Abdullah Gurbati, Abdusuttor Pirmuhammadzoda, and Zavkibek Saidanimi) were convicted on charges initiated under the same Criminal Code article as Fozilov (article 307). This pattern reinforces concerns about misuse of this Criminal Code article to penalise journalists for political purposes. IPHR calls the Tajikistani government to stop using criminal prosecution as a tool to suppress critical reporting and to uphold its international obligations to respect freedom of expression and the media.
Like Father, Like Son: Why Turkmenistan’s Power Transition Is In Reverse
Analysing the political dynamics in Turkmenistan, the Carnegie Endowment piece states that the power transition in Turkmenistan from father to son and back again highlights the fragility of the process in authoritarian systems, even when ideal conditions have been created.
In March 2023, the reform made Turkmenistan’s parliament, which only became bicameral in 2021, unicameral once again. The upper house—led by the former president—is now set to become a supra-state body with almost unlimited powers, allowing Gurbanguly to reclaim power from Serdar—just a year after he passed down the presidency to his son. The article argues that it became increasingly difficult for Berdymukhamedov senior to rule from behind the scenes; the state apparatus is confused as to what the hierarchy should be; and Serdar has not only been amassing more power but has also taken a stand against his father’s corrupt relatives. Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov now wants to regain control before it is too late. The power struggle between the two leaders is destroying hopes for security guarantees and the peaceful transfer of power, the article concludes.
Turkmenistan Steps Up Its Effort to Become an International Transit Hub
Jamestown Foundation article discusses Turkmenistan’s attempts to assume an ever-more important role as a north-south and east-west trade route, not only between China and Europe but also between the landlocked countries of Central Asia and the outside world.
Turkemenistan’s pursuits has attracted the attention of various outside powers, including China, Russia, Iran, Europe, and the United States. Turkmenistan’s leaders hope to transform the country into a powerful new player in regional geo-economics and geopolitics, but they are likely to face serious difficulties in the pursuit of that goal due to the competing interests of these outside powers.
Recent developments, including an international investment conference, a declaration by Turkmenistani President Serdar Berdymukhamedov to serve as a gateway to the world for Tajikistan and other landlocked countries of Central Asia, and a push for new international agreements on transit routes, suggest that Turkmenistan is making progress towards its goal. However, the logistics issue inside Turkmenistan is certain to become a flashpoint in the struggle for dominance in trade and more for the entire region.
Overall, Turkmenistan’s ambition to become an international transit hub has the potential to transform the country’s economy and geopolitical position. However, the country’s leaders will need to navigate a complex web of competing interests and address internal challenges to achieve their goal, the article concludes.
Uzbekistan’s President Seeking to Extend Grip on Power
The Al Jazeera news network wrote about the snap presidential elections that Uzbekistan’s president Mirziyoyev announced just hours before flying to Moscow for the Victory Day celebration. The elections are scheduled for July 9. The elections would follow the April 30 referendum that amended Uzbekistan’s constitution, scrapped Mirziyoyev’s previous terms and extended future terms to seven years. The “annulment” will allow Mirziyoyev to stay in the Aq Saray (White Palace), a presidential residence, for 14 more years, until 2040, when he will have turned 84. Such amendments have become common in post-Soviet states, the article notes.
Umida Niyazova, director and founder of the Berlin-based Uzbek Forum for Human Rights, also analysed the recent referendum, resulting, according to the government, in 90.2% of votes in favor of the amendments.
Uzbek voters were only given a choice of approving all 200-some amendments or rejecting them completely. Thus, voting in favor of an amendment declaring Uzbekistan a secular and social state meant automatically being in favor of extending presidential terms from five to seven years, the author notes.
The authorities have striven to convince the international community that the adoption of an updated constitution is necessary to strengthen democratic reforms, but most of the progressive changes incorporated in the amendments, such as the abolition of the death penalty and the guarantee of the right of habeas corpus, have long been enacted into law. The Uzbek constitution already contained articles on the protection of human rights, freedom of speech and many other rights, and contained nothing that would hinder democratic development, thus making the amendments meaningless.
Rather, the constitution was simply often ignored and not implemented in practice. Sadly, there is nothing to suggest that under the revised constitution things will be any different. The main purpose of the adoption of the revised constitution is to provide a pretext to legally justify the extension of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s tenure in office, Umidova states. While Mirziyoyev has introduced some reforms, deteriorating freedoms of speech and association, persecution of rights activists and journalists, and increased obstacles to the development of civil society have raised serious doubts about the leadership’s promise to continue democratic reforms.
The Stans Can’t Play Both Sides Anymore
Finally, the most important political event of May in Central Asia was the 2023 China-Central Asia summit in Xi’an, resulting in all 5 Central Asian countries and China signing off the ‘Xi’an Declaration’. The Silkroad Briefing article provides an overview of all agreements, grants, and initiatives approved at the summit. Overall, the Central Asian and Chinese governments approved US$3.72 billion in regional grants, signed 54 major multilateral agreements, created 19 new regional platforms, and signed a further 9 multilateral cooperation documents.
The summit reinvigorated discussions among experts about China’s rising role in Central Asia. The Foreign Policy article by Raffaello Pantucci and Alessandro Arduino argues that China and Russia are eager to coordinate in Central Asia and that their basic aims in the region are the same. This complicates diplomacy for the Central Asian governments that have long sought to play the two countries off each other. The article states that the ties to Beijing that Central Asia tries to cultivate are an effort to balance against Moscow, but the reality is that this balancing act is not going to work very well given how close Russia and China are these days. The article concludes that entirely surrounded by powers in some level of conflict with the West, Central Asia finds its options are increasingly limited.
The Atlantic Council article by John E. Herbst, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, argues that the Central Asian states see their security in having as many contacts as possible with strong outside actors, which beyond China and Russia includes the United States, the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea, and India. The influence of China and Russia in Central Asia cannot be denied—it’s why the region’s leaders flew to Moscow for Victory Day and to Xi’an for Xi’s summit. But each of the Central Asian states has reason to be wary of its great power neighbors. Central Asian leaders will look to gain economic benefits from China, while being careful not to mortgage their sovereignty to Beijing.
A more robust US policy in the region, in coordination with its Western partners, can offer additional economic benefit to Central Asia with none of the downside risk of extraterritorial ambition, the article states. Ambassador Herbst concludes that the US government should look to support US investment in the region and demonstrate that Washington can be the reliable, peaceful partner that the Central Asian states desire but cannot count on in China.