The Central Asian countries were analyzed by foreign outlets in light of Kazakhstan’s strained relations with Russia, growing authoritarianism in Kyrgyzstan, army enlisting measures in Tajikistan, new census data from Turkmenistan, presidential elections in Uzbekistan, and other important developments in the region.
Moscow Announces End-Run Around Increasingly Hostile Kazakhstan
Paul Goble in his article for the Jamestown Foundation discusses Moscow’s plan to redirect trade flows now passing through Kazakhstan’s southern regions between China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, on the one hand, and Turkmenistan and the Caspian Sea, on the other. Goble argues that the new route would undercut Astana’s plans to become the central transportation hub in Central Asia and the Caspian region.
Source: Rossiyskaya gazeta
The proximate cause of this move, as the Russian experts point out, is Kazakhstan’s decision not to violate the West’s sanctions regime against Russia and the unresolved problems on Kazakhstan’s borders. Nonetheless, as Goble states, Moscow’s declarations to redirect trade flows through Turkmenistan and the Caspian Sea might just be a negotiating ploy rather than an actual plan. For this route to work, the countries involved would have to expand their shipping capacity on the Caspian, something they have had great difficulty doing quickly up to now.
Goble concludes that if the Kremlin presses too hard to end-run Kazakhstan on the east-west route by developing the southern transportation corridor, it may find Astana less interested in remaining part of its north-south project. That in turn would threaten Moscow’s broader interests and thus is something Russian officials are likely to work especially hard to avoid.
Looming Disputes Over Major Kazakh Oil Projects Impose on Energy Sector Stability
The Caspian Policy Center publication reports that Kazakhstan being currently embroiled in oil project cost disputes with international oil giants, resulting in the state filing lawsuits for $16.5 billion in claims. The disputes revolve around the Kashagan and Karachaganak projects, which are the second and third largest oil producers in the country. Allegations of unauthorized spending amounting to $13 billion for the offshore Kashagan field and $3.5 billion for Karachaganak have been made against such companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron.
These disputes have not only strained relations between the state and investors but also pose potential risks to oil operations in Kazakhstan. Additionally, environmental compliance violation allegations are also part of the disputes. Eni, an Italian company, is playing a key role in seeking a resolution to these conflicts. The implications of these disputes are far-reaching, affecting Kazakhstan’s energy sector and its ability to meet global demand. The article concludes that to resolve these issues, it is crucial for Kazakhstan to prioritize transparency and foster collaborative efforts among all parties involved.
From ‘Island of Democracy’ to ‘Consolidated Authoritarian Regime’: The Need to Reverse Kyrgyzstan’s Slide
A group of legal experts and Ambassador (ret.) Eileen Malloy warn about the emergence of a new and disturbing Kyrgyzstan in their article for Just Security. Kyrgyzstan has fallen dramatically in democracy rankings and is now considered by Freedom House to be a “consolidated authoritarian regime.”
The article provides an overview of numerous human rights violations by the government in recent years and months. Most recently, the government detained 22 human rights defenders, activists and opposition political figures because they attempted to create a citizens’ informal Committee for the Protection of Kempir-Abad, a strategically important reservoir and regional water source. Moreover, just weeks ago, “Russian-style `foreign agents’” legislation was reintroduced and endorsed by a third of the members of parliament.
Nevertheless, it is not too late to help reverse the slide, the authors argue. They call the international community to keep these cases on their radar, maintain strong pressure on the Kyrgyz government by prominently highlighting its abuses, and provide direct support to local civil society, media outlets, human rights defenders, lawyers, and journalists. Donors and financial institutions should invoke human rights violations among their other human rights and rule-of-law conditions on financial assistance and loans going to the government and other state structures and institutions, the authors maintain.
In Central Asia, a hidden pipeline supplies Russia with banned tech
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) speaks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov during a meeting at the Kremlin on May 8.
The Washington Post reports that Russia is using Central Asian countries, particularly Kyrgyzstan, as a means to acquire banned technology and electronics for its military operations in Ukraine. The Kyrgyz shadow bazaar has experienced a significant increase in imports of sanctioned Chinese and European goods, which are then transported to Russia via air or land routes. Records show the overall volume of Kyrgyzstan’s exports to Russia skyrocketed in 2022, rising by 250 percent over the previous year, before the invasion of Ukraine. For some items, such as rifle scopes, there was no previous record of Kyrgyzstan ever exporting such goods to Russia.
In response, the Biden administration is preparing new economic measures to exert pressure on Kyrgyzstan and halt this trade. It is believed that Russian intelligence services are involved in coordinating these transactions. The Kyrgyz government has publicly stated its commitment to adhering to international regulations and cracking down on illicit trade. However, enforcing sanctions poses significant challenges, as acknowledged by U.S. officials. Despite these challenges, they emphasize the importance of continuous enforcement and cracking down on evasion.
Tajikistan: Enlistment-dodging pushes recruiters to use ever-more devious methods
Military service last two years and involves a sustained and brutal period of hazing. (Photo: Government handout)
An article by the Eurasianet platform discussed the measures taken by authorities to get young men to enlist to army during the conscription season. According to the article, these measures include scooping men off the streets, pressuring communities to giving up their sons by disconnecting the electricity, detaining relatives, and shuttering mosques.
Anora Sarkorova, a journalist based in Europe but originally from the GBAO, wrote on her popular Telegram channel that she had learned of young people being scooped up directly from schools and that parents of eligible men were threatened with reprisals unless they got their children to return from Russia. In other episodes from Khorog reported by Sarkorova, young people were expelled from university so that they could be enlisted. A resident of Kolkhozobod, a town around 130 kilometers south of Dushanbe, told Eurasianet that their neighborhood went without electricity for three days until they could agree among themselves on whose sons would enlist.
Dilrabo Samadova, head of the Office of Civil Liberties, a group that campaigns for the rights of military personnel, said that the lot of conscripts has improved somewhat in the past 15 years or so. She conceded, however, that mandatory military service remains as unpopular as ever because of bullying and hazing in the army.
Tajikistan’s Pamiris: Persecuted, disappeared, and forgotten by the world
An Open Democracy article highlights the situation of the Pamiri minority in Tajikistan, who have long been subjected to persecution and marginalization by the authorities. Despite facing ethnic cleansing during the civil war and ongoing discrimination, the Tajikistan government denies their existence as a separate group. This denial of their identity exacerbates their vulnerability and perpetuates their marginalization.
As a result of the intensified persecution, many Pamiris have been forced to flee the country in search of safety and asylum. They have sought refuge in neighboring countries or attempted to reach the European Union. However, they face significant challenges in finding secure asylum and are at risk of being forcibly returned to Tajikistan, where they would face further persecution.
The ongoing harassment and persecution of Pamiris remains largely unaddressed by the country’s international trade partners. The article calls for persuading the Tajikistan authorities to recognise the existence of the Pamiris, to stop the repression and to give them equal rights.
Turkmenistan: Crowded house
Where is everybody?: Despite Turkmenistan’s reputedly fast-growing population, the streets of the capital are often empty. Photo: Government website.
The Eurasianet platform reports that at a Cabinet meeting on July 14, the head of the State Statistics Committee, Dovletgeldi Amanmukhammedov, unveiled long-delayed census data to claim that the country has a population of around 7 million. Of those, more than 1 million are said to live in the capital, Ashgabat. Almost 53 per cent of Turkmens live in rural areas, census data showed.
In July 2021, RFE/RL’s Turkmen service, Radio Azatlyk, published a report that it said was based on information provided by three well-positioned sources that put the population at no higher than 2.8 million. This number appeared to speak of a demographic collapse exacerbated by sluggish birth rates, increased mortality, and high levels of outward migration.
These two pictures of the situation could not be more different. Azatlyk, however, is sticking to its story. In an article published after the census figures were made public, the broadcaster cited “a source close to the government” as saying the population is probably no more than 4 million strong. The platforms stated that the census did not adhere to generally accepted instructions and recommendations on conducting such surveys. The article notes that because the country is so secretive and closed off to the world, there is little way of knowing with certainty either way.
Reported Coup Attempt in Turkmenistan Could Threaten Ashgabat’s Future Course
An article by the Jamestown Foundation states that according to reports, an attempted coup has taken place in Turkmenistan, resulting in the arrest of 20 individuals, including high-ranking officials. However, the government has denied these reports and has taken measures to restrict internet access, making it difficult to verify the situation.
It may be that the report about the coup attempt is, as Ashgabat claims, not true and represents an attempt by opposition elements to present what they would like to happen. Or it may be the case that the Turkmenistan government is behind the report and wants to use this as an excuse to settle scores within the country’s elite or as a means to impose more repression on a population already suffering from widespread poverty and the heavy hand of Ashgabat. Or—and this is perhaps the most likely—the reported event may reflect elements of both growing popular unhappiness with the regime and growing repression by the regime to remain in power while pursuing greater cooperation with foreign countries such as Iran, Russia and China, the article suggests. The reported coup attempt, along with the underlying tribal divisions and popular discontent, suggests that the country may be facing significant challenges to its current regime.
Uzbekistan’s Leader — Time for Hard Choices
The CEPA article analyses the recent election in Uzbekistan where the incumbent president Shavkat Mirzoyoyev secured his position, winning with an overwhelming 87% of the vote. The article argues that despite some reforms that have been introduced by Mirzoyoyev, the government still maintains a firm grip on power, resulting in limited political competition.
The article also suggests that the influence of Russia and China in the region further complicates the situation. Both countries have significant economic and political interests in Central Asia, and their influence poses challenges for the West in balancing its own interests. The article argues that it is crucial for the West to support liberalization efforts in Uzbekistan and Central Asia. By doing so, it can help pave the way for economic growth and stability in the region. However, this support must be carefully managed to avoid antagonizing Russia and China, as their influence in the region cannot be ignored.
Incumbent Mirziyoyev is expected to win the snap elections [File: Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters]
An Al Jazeera article, published before the elections in Uzbekistan, talked about a prevailing sense of apathy and disinterest in the presidential election among its citizens. The lack of enthusiasm among Uzbekistan’s citizens towards the election is indicative of a broader disillusionment with the political process. Many feel that their voices are not being heard and that the outcome of the election was predetermined. The victory of incumbent president Shavkat Mirziyoyev, coupled with concerns about his authoritarian tendencies, raised questions about the future trajectory of the country’s political landscape.
Central Asian Countries Come Together to Pursue Ties with the Arab World
Leaders of states from two Muslim regions gathered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (Source: TRTRussian)
The Jamestown Foundation analyses the meeting of the five Central Asian presidents with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates in Riyadh, the first-ever summit meeting between the two regions.
Each Central Asian president came prepared with a list of plans to expand Arab trade and investment in each of their respective countries, the article reports. The Arab leaders listened politely and encouraged thinking about inter-regional cooperation; however, despite hype from some quarters, no major deals were concluded that would dramatically boost the Arab economic footprint in Central Asia, at least anytime soon. The two sides discussed the promotion of a common Islamic world and the simultaneous countering of outside powers in geo-economic and geopolitical terms to ensure that the transit plans of these powers will benefit the entire region, rather than only one or two of its members, the author points out.
Analyzing the results of the meeting, experts suggest that while this meeting may not directly impact China or Russia’s influence in Central Asia, it could potentially challenge Turkey and diminish Western influence in the region. Saudi Arabia emerges as the primary beneficiary, as it enhances its authority in the region. Moreover, instead of tying the Central Asian states more closely to the Arab world, the meeting may first and foremost unite them as a bloc, something that almost certainly complicates the lives of all outside powers, most of whom have a history of playing one Central Asian country against another to achieve their goals in the region, the author concludes.
China looks to expand soft-power presence in Central Asia
Meanwhile, China is continuing to grow ties with Central Asian countries, the Eurasianet platform informs. In July, China hosted a visit by an Uzbek delegation, resulting in a memorandum of understanding outlining “prospects for further strengthening cooperation in research activities” and “further strengthening relations between leading” Chinese and Uzbek think tanks. Uzbekistan’s ADM Jizzakh plant has reached a deal to start assembling Haval branded vehicles. Haval assembly will replace production of vehicles designed by the Russian automaker AvtoVAZ, “the production of which is now suspended” due to sanctions.
Moreover, Chinese Culture Minister Hu Heping met July 11 with Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador to the PRC, Aktilek Musayeva, to explore the feasibility of opening cultural centers and take “further steps to strengthen cooperation in the field of art, cinema, etc.,”. Kyrgyzstan and China also are bolstering educational exchanges. Kyrgyz railway officials report that a memorandum of understanding has been completed among relevant entities in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and China to consolidate efforts to extend a planned intermodal route to Afghanistan.