Foreign analytical articles of August highlighted several important trends in the region, including increased civic engagement in Kazakhstan, strengthening US sanctions against companies in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan’s growing relations with international actors in the infrastructure and energy spheres, dynamics in regional cooperation, etc.
In Kazakhstan, Snap Parliamentary Elections Provide an Unexpected Window of Opportunity for Civic Engagement
The Freedom House organisation discusses the snap parliamentary elections held in Kazakhstan in March, highlighting that they were not free or fair. However, the article points out that recent political reforms allowed independent candidates to participate and gain legitimacy. These reforms increased voter choice by enabling self-nominated independent and opposition candidates to run for office in Kazakhstan. Independent candidates took advantage of the campaign period to directly engage with citizens, listening to their grievances and suggestions. Although these campaigns may not have achieved immediate electoral success, they have created an opportunity for candidates to strengthen their connection with the public and work towards democratic change. The challenge now is for these civic activists to expand their influence and mobilize citizens to address public issues, the article states.
Kazakhstan’s oil ambitions face challenge of OPEC+ quotas, Black Sea export risk
A piece by S&P Global, a financial and analytics company, states that Kazakhstan’s plans for oil production growth are facing challenges due to its commitments to the OPEC+ producer group and concerns about the security of exports in the Black Sea. The country has consistently exceeded its quota levels for crude output in the first half of the year, potentially leading to disagreements with OPEC+. However, Kazakhstan’s heavy reliance on international oil and gas companies may provide some flexibility in complying with quotas. To mitigate risks associated with the Black Sea route, Kazakhstan is actively seeking alternative export routes. The security concerns stem from the potential for military strikes in the Black Sea, which could severely impact Kazakhstan’s exports. While some experts downplay the risks, others caution about the possibility of escalation and disruptions at the loading facilities in Novorossiisk. Kazakhstan’s ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial in maintaining its oil production growth plans.
Kyrgyz-Kazakh Relations Strained Amid Water Cutoff, Border Traffic Jam
Radio Free Europe’s Kazakh service reports that Kyrgyz-Kazakh relations have become strained due to a water cutoff and a border traffic jam. Kazakh farmers are facing failed crops due to a lack of irrigation water from Kyrgyzstan, while the Kyrgyz Agriculture Ministry claims that there is not enough water to share because of prolonged droughts and high temperatures. The Kirov water reservoir in Kyrgyzstan’s northwestern Talas region is carrying a fraction of last year’s volume, the ministry said, and is only 3 percent of its capacity.
In response, Kazakhstan has slowed down border traffic, resulting in long queues of cargo-carrying vehicles since August 20. Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Yerulan Zhamaubaev explained it by anti-narcotics operations on the country’s shared border. This situation has caused tensions between the two countries, with some Kyrgyz perceiving Kazakhstan’s actions as punitive. This situation highlights the existing water shortages and tensions over water in Central Asia in light of worsening droughts.
Kyrgyz authorities apply to shutter investigative outlet Kloop
The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that on August 22, the Kyrgyz authorities have requested the closure of Kloop Media, an independent news and anti-corruption investigative website, on the grounds that its charter does not include media activity as one of its official activities. They also accuse Kloop of publishing articles that sharply criticize the authorities and incite revolution. Kloop is renowned for its critical coverage of the Kyrgyz authorities and its involvement in exposing corruption. The Committee to Protect Journalists has urged the authorities to retract their application and cease pressuring the independent press.
US Sanctions Against Companies from Kyrgyzstan: A New Trend?
The EurasiaNet platform reports that on August 8, Sen. Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat and the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called on Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov to address allegations of sanctions-busting activity that assists “Russia, or its proxies.” Japarov obliged indirectly, releasing a statement to the Kabar news agency disavowing any official role in facilitating trade with Russia that violated sanctions. He claimed Russia did not need Kyrgyzstan to act as a middleman for Chinese trade, because of the fact that Russia and China share thousands of miles of common frontier. At the same time, he tacitly expressed willingness to act on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s request to exert more control over Russia-bound exports.
The Modern Democracy platform also discussed the topic, highlighting the growing trend of targeting companies from friendly nations that violate US export control regulations. The recent package of US sanctions included four Kyrgyzstan-based companies that were involved in supplying dual-use goods to Russian customers. This signifies the US’s increasing efforts to exert control over the actions of foreign businesses in a manner that aligns with American interests. The application of blocking sanctions against third countries for engaging in transactions with Russian entities in circumvention of export controls or financial restrictions demonstrates the expansion of this practice and poses additional risks for Russian counterparts in friendly nations, the article concludes.
The Tyranny of Fear in Tajikistan
The Diplomat article details the concerns about the situation of human rights defenders in Tajikistan. On July 4, a group of 10 U.N. experts released a statement highlighting the convictions of eight human rights defenders and the arrests of journalists, bloggers, and civil society representatives in Tajikistan.
The article provides interview excerpts which accuse the Tajik government of using fear and sociological warfare to maintain its power. The experts noted a pattern of using extremism and terrorism-related charges against defenders and minority activists. They also called on Western nations to apply targeted sanctions, travel bans, and other measures to pressure Tajikistan urging the EU to closely monitor Tajikistan’s implementation of human rights conventions under the GSP+ regime. Nonetheless, some countries like the U.S. were criticized for granting waivers to Tajikistan despite its violations of religious freedom. The experts emphasized the importance of releasing the detained human rights defenders.
China To Accelerate Tajikistan Investments to Speed Up Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan-China Gas Pipeline
The chairman of the Tajik parliament’s upper chamber, Rustam Emomali, visited Beijing and met with Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng discussing bilateral ties, Tajik authorities said on August 23. Silk Road Briefing informs that they were discussing an acceleration of the Line “D” construction of the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan-China gas pipeline among other projects’ bottleneck issues. China is keen to develop alternative sources of energy supplies in order to provide competition with Russia. The report states that this competition is likely to have significant spin-off benefits for Tajikistan.
The fourth ‘Line D’ of the gas pipeline to China is intended to supply China with an additional 25 bcm of gas per year as part of the second stage of the development of the giant Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan. The report concludes that Emomali’s involvement in persuading China to accelerate the project is likely to be well-received in Beijing; and may well result in a flurry of Chinese investment in the country to underpin the pipeline’s development.
Turkmenistan Signals Major Change in Energy-Export Stance
David O’Byrne argues in his article published in Caspian Post that Trans-Caspian pipeline, which could potentially increase natural gas deliveries to Europe, has the potential to impact Russia’s share of the gas-export market and deprive the Kremlin of revenue for its war efforts in Ukraine. The announcement by Turkmenistan about its readiness to develop a Trans-Caspian pipeline is seen as a significant reversal, and there is a great interest in transporting Turkmen gas across the Caspian Sea to Europe.
However, as noted by O’Byrne, previous attempts at pipeline projects have faced obstacles due to various factors. The financing for the construction of the pipeline remains uncertain, but there is speculation that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company could be a potential investor. This development has the potential to reshape the energy dynamics in the region and reduce Russia’s influence.
Turkmenistan Signs its First-Ever Energy Deal with the EU
Turkmenistan’s commitment to developing the Trans-Caspian Pipeline was also discussed by the Caspian Policy Center’s Haley Nelson in the article about Turkmenistan’s first-ever deal to supply natural gas to the EU.
On August 20, President of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimukhamedov, and Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, met in Budapest and reached a deal on the import of Turkmen gas to Hungary’s energy sector. The article argues that if Turkmenistan wishes to continue supplying Europe with its vast gas reserves, it must upgrade its Westward export capacity. Iranian pipelines do not have the capacity to move the Turkmen gas needed for Europe’s consumption centers. The full fruition of Turkmenistan’s plans depends on the construction of a 300-kilometer Trans-Caspian pipeline, a proposed subsea pipeline, moving natural gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan through a Caspian Sea route with a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters per year.
Although Hungary lacks the capability to unilaterally upgrade the energy infrastructure connecting Turkmenistan and the western Caspian countries, the growing energy demands underscore the crucial importance of the proposed Trans-Caspian Pipeline.
Religious Policy in Uzbekistan
The German Institute for International and Security Affairs presented its research results on the Religious Policy in Uzbekistan. The report argues that the religious policy innovations that Uzbekistan’s President Mirziyoyev has initiated in the name of liberalisation and reform in fact continue the policies of his predecessor in key aspects, especially in legislation.
Nonetheless, state supervision of the religious field has been strengthened through tighter centralisation and denser inter-institutional connectivity. The state Committee for Religious Affairs (CRA) now de facto supervises even those institutions for which the Spiritual Administration, the Directorate of Muslims of Uzbekistan (DMU), is nominally responsible.
The report argues that under the motto “enlightenment against ignorance”, state influence over the religious knowledge taught in educational and research institutions has been strengthened.
One of the interesting findings of the report is related to the liberalisation of the media landscape. The report argues that the liberalisation of media led to religious advice being available in abundance, which often included propaganda transporting illiberal ideas, but the state intervenes only selectively.
The report concludes that the liberalisation of religious policy has resulted in a growing Islamisation of the population. The authoritarian state headed by President Mirziyoyev is thus being consolidated. Repression remains the means of choice should Islamic milieus seriously challenge the secular state.
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan Push for Regional Independence with First-Ever Trilateral Summit
The article by the Caspian Policy Center discusses the first-ever trilateral summit between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan on August 4. This unprecedented meeting aimed to directly address shared challenges, promote integration, and enhance joint efforts, prioritizing harmonized development, cultural cohesion, and tailored economic strategies.
The article argues that among the initial agenda items, the persistent concern of water management took center stage. President Berdimuhamedov proposed the notion of establishing a regional water pipeline network. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan advocated for the digital transformation of water management processes and collaborative initiatives in constructing infrastructure for capturing and storing both mudflow and flood waters.
Energy was another important theme. The article reports that given the prevailing energy crisis in the region, there is an urgent need to modernize existing systems to reduce reliance on antiquated Soviet-era infrastructure and facilitate regional energy agreements devoid of external impositions.
Finally, the oil and gas sector was also presented as a potential area of cooperation. While Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan export a majority of their energy resources to China, Turkmenistan committed to exporting more of its gas supply to its neighbors, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. With both countries facing frequent gas shortages in winter, Turkmenistan announced it will increase gas production by 60 billion cubic meters to help supply domestic and regional demands.
Potential Partnership: Southeast Asian Nations as Emerging Allies of Central Asia
Caspian Policy Center’s Meray Ozat discussed the growing trend among Central Asian nations to seek partnerships with Southeast Asian countries to balance their relationships with neighboring superpowers. Recent visits and agreements between leaders of Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Uzbekistan indicate a growing trend in bilateral relations, the author states. These partnerships have the potential to enhance trade, transportation networks, and regional cooperation between the two regions. Central Asia can learn from the successful regionalism model of Southeast Asia, particularly the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Strengthened ties between Central Asian and Southeast Asian countries can contribute to the security landscape and support a multi-vector foreign policy approach. This article highlights the potential benefits of closer collaboration between Central Asian and Southeast Asian nations and emphasizes the importance of regional partnerships in maintaining a balanced and secure geopolitical environment.
Perspectives: “We have common traumas, but no common memory”
The EurasiaNet article discusses the revival of old traumas and debates on decolonization, national identity, and local traditions in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The brutality of Russian attacks in Ukraine has led to a decline in approval of Russia as a regional leader in countries like Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. Civic actors, including historians, journalists, educators, and artists, are exposing Russian imperialism and promoting discussions on colonial legacies and national traditions. Central Asia is leading the decolonization drive, with a surge in schools, media, and education platforms promoting local language and history, the activists say. Armenian activists are also embracing decolonization issues, and Ukrainian activists are engaging in cross-border activism to support community-building efforts in Belarus. The importance of self-decolonization and finding personal paths to decolonization is emphasized by many activists.
Russia: Debts causing rise in illegal migration among Central Asians
The EurasiaNet article highlighted an important development for Central Asians in Russia. The paper discusses the situation of labor migrants, particularly those from Central Asia, who may lose their legal residency status due to personal debts. Many foreign nationals are being issued exit bans by bailiffs trying to recover outstanding debts, resulting in a debt pile of around $250 million. Despite official hostility towards migrant laborers, their numbers are increasing, with 1.3 million people entering Russia for work purposes in the first quarter of 2023. However, the demand for foreign workers is primarily in skills-heavy sectors, and Central Asian laborers may not benefit from this demand, the article maintains.