What are the major risks posed by climate change in Central Asia? Will heatwaves in summer be the new normal? How Central Asia can address the issue as a region? What can be done at the level of individual countries to adapt to climate change? The editorial of CABAR.asia discussed these and other questions with Roman Vakulchuk who holds a PhD in Economics and works as Senior Researcher at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) focusing on climate change and renewable energy.
Central Asia has been experiencing heatwaves for several weeks with temperature exceeding all average indicators during this time of the year. Heatwaves are also observed all over the world. Could you tell why is this happening?
In May this year my colleagues and I published a study which shows that climate change in Central Asia is already taking place. One of its main effects is a high temperature reaching 35-40°C and lasting for many weeks or even months in a summertime. Such hot days always took place in the region, but they were not as numerous as they are today. For example, climate scientists in Kazakhstan carried out analysis of summer temperatures over time and found that there were only 2-3 such days each summer in the 1970-1980s. At the moment there are around 15-20 days with temperature 40+°C. This is one of the main indicators of how global climate change is affecting the region. Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in the world and its temperature is rising faster than the global average. This is a worrying trend.
Region´s climate is becoming similar to climate in the countries of the Middle East such as Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.
Will such weather be the new normal in Central Asia?
Yes, this is becoming the new normal. However, more important questions are whether temperature will continue rising and how fast. If we stick to the most pessimistic scenario, then the outlook is quite bleak. For instance, the World Bank projects 5.1°C average temperature rise in Turkmenistan by the 2090s, far above global average. This can be huge. A temperature rise by just 2°C already poses catastrophic risks for the entire planet and its inhabitants.
As you said climate change is already happening in Central Asia. Do you expect that its impacts will be more deteriorating for the region in the near future?
The region is already experiencing land degradation, water shortages, rapid desertification. In 2021 there was a massive sandstorm that covered several regions in Uzbekistan as well as Tashkent. For Tashkent such a phenomenon was unique as it happened for the first time. This reminds of sandstorms that are regular in the Middle East. Sandstorms indicate fast growing desertification. Changes in climate pose new risks to the environment, flora and fauna in Central Asia. Any further increase in temperature can lead to radical and irrevocable changes in many areas with implications for economic and social affairs, energy security, agriculture, etc.
Could you, please, touch upon major risks for the region in light of climate change? For instance, this abnormal temperature has led to a substantial electricity consumption increase in Kyrgyzstan.
Food and water security issues, increasing wildfire risks, new health risks are becoming acute. There is a direct link between higher temperatures and a rise in cardiovascular diseases. As regards the present situation, you are right, one can observe increased electricity consumption. This is due to the widespread use of air conditioners, water pumps and other devices. This strains and wears power grids out and can lead to more frequent emergency situations. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where hydropower is widespread, water shortages can become more regular. Thus, the population in urban and rural areas should actively adopt water saving and energy efficient practices as well as explore local renewable energy solutions.
How climate change poses a risk to economic development of the region?
Last week during the summit of the heads of the Central Asian states it was announced that the region should fight climate change. How Central Asia can address the issue as a region? What can be done at the level of individual countries to adapt to climate change?
This is encouraging news. The recognition of the problem at the summit is an important step toward prioritizing tackling climate change in the region. Climate is changing globally, and it has no territorial boundaries. Therefore, the countries need to adopt a joint approach to address the issue.
I believe the countries of the region should be more proactive in international climate change negotiations and climate financing. It is encouraging that Central Asia acted as one voice at the climate summit in Glasgow in 2021. A next step could be the creation of a regional climate fund which would serve the purpose of attracting financing and investment for climate change adaptation in Central Asia.
What is the role of the scientific community in terms of comprehending and producing much-needed knowledge on climate change impacts in Central Asia?
Unfortunately, until now the issue of climate change in Central Asia has received only limited attention from scholars. In our study published by the Central Asian Survey journal we assessed the extent to which the academic community engaged with climate change in Central Asia between 1991 and 2021. We found that climate change has been neglected in the field of Central Asia area studies. We analyzed the content of scientific conferences and seminars at 17 associations dedicated to Central Asia studies. We found that over the last 30 years out of 1 305 conference panels, none was focused on climate change. Similarly, out of 10 249 individual presentations, only two (!) were made on climate change in Central Asia. Similarly, out of a total 13 488 journal articles in eight key journals for Central Asia research, only 33 articles (0.24%) were on climate change or broader environmental issues. For the problem of such magnitude this is a just a drop in the ocean.
In contrast, many hundreds of journal articles and research papers have been published on security issues in Central Asia since 1991. The scope and scale of risks and threats posed by climate change is far greater than conventional security risks. Similarly, the implications of climate change for health in Central Asia were examined only in two scientific publications. There is very little information as to which measures need to be taken to mitigate health-related consequences for the population in the short and long term. I think it is important that medical scientists work closely with climate scientists on the issue in the region.
One conclusion is clear. The scientific community has problematized those issues that have less socio-economic significance for Central Asia than climate change does. Although it is already getting late, I still believe the scientific community can fill many information gaps and improve public awareness about climate change adaptation measures.
It is also necessary to highlight the important role that international organizations have played by launching multiple adaptation-related projects in Central Asia since 2000. They were the main players who paid attention to climate change and gained valuable experience and knowledge which could be used by governments and the private sector when developing adaptation mechanisms.
What would you recommend to people, civil society, and mass media in Central Asia who wish to assist in mitigating the consequences of climate change?
Reforestation is an effective measure. If every second person plants a tree, this would soften the impact of heatwaves in Central Asia. Also, considering that glaciers, that feed Central Asia, are melting, it is of utmost importance to save water resources.
Turning to warmer countries for lessons could be also useful. For example, the experience of the United Arab Emirates in effective management of water resources under heatwaves could be practical and helpful for Central Asia.
Civil society, NGOs and mass media could prioritize raising awareness among the population about climate change impacts on a regular basis. Another measure could be the creation of region-wide working groups that would work closely with governments and international organizations on issues related to climate change.