Central Asian environmental researchers warn of the rapid destruction of natural ecosystems in Central Asia. Some of them believe that this is an irreversible process. Furthermore, the residents of the region are already feeling the consequences of these processes.
They propose to put aside all existing disagreements between the countries of the region and solve the problems of environmental degradation jointly to save the ecosystem while it is still possible.
In recent years, residents of Central Asian countries have felt the consequences of global climate change more acutely. These include more frequent dust storms, abnormally hot summers, unusual for the region cold winters, the shallowing of rivers and lakes, and other environmental problems. The forecasts of environmental scientists who repeatedly warned that human activity is destroying the planet are coming true. The global situation is even ahead of these forecasts.
These and other problems of the region’s natural ecosystems were discussed with environmental researchers from four Central Asian countries during the latest CABAR.asia analytical expert meeting.
For hundreds of thousands of years, natural ecosystems have maintained climate stability on the planet. This is the basis of climate resilience. However, nowadays, the natural ecosystems of the Central Asian region are weakened and the main task today for the region’s residents is to preserve what can still be preserved, most experts believe.
Is the Process Irreversible?
Environmental scientists’ reports show that over 70% of natural ecosystems on Earth are already disturbed today and this process continues, according to Bulat Yessekin, environmental scientist from Kazakhstan, member of the Bureau of the UNECE Committee on Environmental Policy, Asia-Pacific Council on Sustainable Development, and the Kazakhstan Council for Sustainable Development.
He believes that human intervention and expansion are destroying the natural systems that are crucial for “human life, health, and in general, all the physical and biological conditions necessary for life on Earth”.
“Today this process is already irreversible,” he said.
A new Aralkum desert about the size of Switzerland has formed in the region. Although Kazakhstan and other countries try to restore remaining reservoirs, such as the Northern Aral and others, it is impossible to restore the entire Aral Sea, Yessekin believes.
“Therefore, the problems we observe today, such as the spread of toxic dust from the bottom of the Aral Sea that reaches the glaciers and covers the entire region, are the consequences of these phenomena. The same situation is observed in other ecosystems as well… This all is due to the biological diversity loss, air pollution, and other processes,” he said.
He highlighted that similar to the Aral Sea processes occur in the ecosystem of Lake Balkhash. The research shows that by 2030, the region may lose Lake Balkhash, which is one of the largest lake ecosystems on the planet. This ecosystem is larger in area than Great Britain, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, and Switzerland combined. It includes plenty of natural ecosystems – 12 types of them – from glaciers to deserts.
“We may lose all this natural wealth, including maternal, genetic material. … Once the degradation of this lake begins, it will happen very quickly. It is more vulnerable than the Aral Sea since the Aral Sea has an average depth of 60 metres, while at Balkhash, it is 36 metres. The degradation is already beginning; this is a living organism, now I will repeat: just like cirrhosis of the liver, it will cover this entire system. This means that a fifth of Kazakhstan’s territory will become lifeless,” Yessekin said.
For the Central Asian countries, the consequences of climate change are manifested primarily through water resources. Water is the most sensitive element to temperature changes. This also includes soil moisture, land health, and many other processes.
The first obvious factor from natural ecosystem destruction that humanity will face in this decade is the food crisis, the expert believes. Other consequences associated with it are loss of jobs and mass migration that will exceed the forecasts made before.
“These conditions will become unbearable for life. Of course, this includes viruses – viruses that were dormant until we began our expansion. In addition, the conflicts, political conflicts, and the collapse of our usual environmental support systems that were not created for these growing and fast human expansions. That is, ensuring provision of energy, food, water, heat, electricity, and so on,” predicts an expert from Kazakhstan.
According to Yessekin, the main reason for this, in addition to greenhouse gas emissions, is that human consumption has gone beyond the permitted planetary boundaries. According to him, the studies show that in 2009, three processes that supported life on Earth, climate, water circulation, biosphere integrity, and land use were violated, but now, seven processes have been violated already.
“We all went beyond the limits. … Many experts, including Dennis Meadows, say that we have already passed the point of no return, these are irreversible processes, and in all discussions, we need to forget about the terms such as sustainable development, forget that we can return to the situation in which we used to live, that abundance. We need to prepare to live in crisis, in the situation of all these collapses,” said Bulat Yessekin.
Nature Has the Ability to Regenerate
Anna Kirilenko, chairwoman of the Global Forest Coalition and Executive Director of the Ecological Movement ‘BIOM’ from Kyrgyzstan, says that of the approximately 20 types of ecosystems existing in Kyrgyzstan, half have already been lost now.
“People do not yet understand the value of the ecosystems and the ecosystem of Central Asia in particular. They scare us with greenhouse gases, they say that this is the main reason for everything. However, this is not entirely true, because the ecosystems are exactly what can support everything. And the ecosystems have already done this. Natural ecosystems have maintained conditions favourable to life on the planet for millions of years,” she said.
Some of the most productive natural ecosystems are forests. Although they occupy a very small area in Central Asian countries, they make the greatest contribution. This does not mean that other ecosystems do not contribute. However, they all are subject to rapid destruction.
There is no better technology to counter climate change than preserving natural ecosystems, the expert believes.
“Ecosystems are matrices. Matrices that greatly influence us. They are extremely complex and it is very difficult to restore them. We must understand that our primary task now is to preserve those matrices. They remain somewhere in our countries as some small elements, just fragments. However, they are more valuable than pearls and diamonds, much more valuable than any economic gains. I think it is important for us to start thinking about and understanding this,” Anna Kirilenko said.
The Problems Beyond the Environmental Researchers’ Concerns
Arman Utepov, Founder and Head of the Public Foundation ‘EcoMind’ Centre for Ecosystem Solutions, believes that the problems have long gone beyond the concerns of environmental researchers, biologists, and other scientists because the degradation of ecosystems directly affects the population’s quality of life.
“In Kazakhstan, the problem with ecosystems is very concerning. Two-thirds of the land and the soil is degraded. There are big problems with forest ecosystems and steppe ecosystems. First of all, this is due to anthropogenic impact,” Utepov said.
The state of ecosystems directly affects all processes that regulate life.
The disappearance of the Aral Sea is a great tragedy for Central Asia. According to the expert, over a dozen animal species and many plant species have disappeared. This directly affects human health. The number of oncological diseases has increased 20 times, and there has been an increase in respiratory diseases. It was found that about 70% of diseases are associated precisely with ecosystem degradation.
“Forest ecosystems are also rare in Kazakhstan. In our country, for example, according to official data, the forests make up about 5% of the territory, but according to international experts, they do not exceed 1.5-1.3% of the country’s territory. The problem lies in monitoring and record-keeping systems.”
Utepov highlighted that, according to reports and statistics, a significant number of forest trees are planted in the country annually, but the results of space observations do not confirm it.
“We assume that forests should already exceed 5% of territory, while space images show that there are no changes at all over the past 30 years,” he said.
An expert from Kazakhstan said that the contribution of nature to human life is now actively developing. There is a concept of ‘ecosystem approach’; it is a holistic approach to management, which is based, first of all, on scientific information. According to 2014 data, the contribution of ecosystems to supporting life, the economy, and development exceeds $125 trillion.
“This is a cultural contribution. It is linked to some kind of cultural empathy, and people’s mental and emotional health. The researchers evaluated that, let’s say, if a person has the opportunity to communicate with nature from home, be it a park or a garden, that means productivity increases by 35%. These are the economic aspects,” said Arman Utepov.
When it comes to ecosystem services and contributions, socially vulnerable groups of the population will suffer the most. He cites the example of real estate prices in climate-friendly areas.
“Now, in cities, for example, Almaty, the closer to the mountains, the more expensive real estate is. Housing located on the riverside of the Ishim (Yesil) River in the capital of Kazakhstan is also more expensive compared to other locations,” Utepov said.
This all indicates that the problems of preserving natural ecosystems go beyond the boundaries of only natural sciences.
“The access, for example, to clean water should not be determined by a person’s welfare,” Utepov said.
We Have to Be Strong in One Area
The environmental researcher from Tajikistan Alikhon Latifi says he is not a fan of climate change ‘bogeyman stories’.
“I always say, there was a time when hippos swam in the Rhine River. For hippos, global warming is just an awareness of the climate norm, when they will be able to swim in the Rhine River again. Well, to be honest, I do not see any particular danger in this for humans as a biological species. Humans, as a species, have long adapted to different ecological systems and different climate zones. We exist everywhere just fine, we have adapted,” he said.
However, he noted that the problems in Central Asian countries are the same and common. They are connected, in the first place, with the human impact on the environment.
“Of course, it will be connected with political processes, including those noted by Bulat. This is migration, this is the movement of huge masses of the population, these are possible problems with food security, poor access to natural resources, and so on. All these problems, of course, exist. What can we do about it? Where can we run from it? Well, there is probably no need to run. We must try to solve them,” Latifi said.
He noted that all the numerous platforms that were created and where the same problems are discussed for many years, generally do not bring significant results.
“Thus, I concluded that you cannot be strong in all those areas at the same time. This is impossible. Our association, which I am honoured to lead, is the Association of Hunters of Tajikistan. We are just direct users of natural resources. … Today, the proper management of natural resources is one of the key areas in preserving our ecosystems,” he said.
As an example, Alikhon Latifi spoke about the work of the organisation he heads. He said that the Association organises trophy hunting in Tajikistan. Over the years of independence, they managed to find a balance between environmental management and ecosystem preservation.
“Since we have mountain and ungulate animals, their horns are the trophy. The hunters want big horns… Well, the rams and goats do not grow big horns in one day. This requires a significant amount of time, from 7 to 10-12 years. It is necessary to create comfortable conditions for an animal to grow such horns. That is, it is necessary to protect the environment. And that is what we do in our organisation,” Latifi said.
“The state allocates certain scientifically based quotas for the hunting annually. We bring our guests to hunting areas and for money received we preserve these territories. We carry out biotechnical activities. We create comfortable conditions for animals,” he said.
Latifi noted that their active work resulted in the growth of the population of the Pamir Mountain sheep argali – the Marco Polo sheep: in the 1990s in Tajikistan, there were about 8-10 thousand of them, now, the population reached 26-28 thousand heads.
“A special success I would like to highlight is the conservation of the population of markhor goat, the number of which in the 1990s was only 120 heads. Today its population ranges from 5 to 6 thousand heads. You can see the growth in numbers over 30 years thanks to proper environmental management. At the same time, these species would not have developed if there had not been a well-preserved ecosystem. … I am not saying that trophy hunting should be organised everywhere. No. I speak about this only as one example, one of the options for environmental management,” said Alikhon Latifi.
“Climate Change Is a Natural Factor. Nature Somehow Copes with This. However, It Is No Longer Able to Cope with Human Interference”
Saidrasul Sanginov, leading consultant of the Committee on the Development of the Aral Sea Region and Ecology of the Senate of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan, deputy chairman of the Executive Committee of the Ecological Movement Central Kengash of Uzbekistan, said that Uzbekistan is located in the centre of Central Asia, and that almost all ecosystems are present there: high-mountainous, aquatic, desert, which are home to 15 thousand species of animals and 4.5 thousand species of plants.
He spoke about two main problems of Uzbekistan’s ecosystems: the disaster of the largest ecosystem in Central Asia – the Aral Sea, and the problem of mountain ecosystems in the region.
“Before 1964, as everyone knows, since the experts gathered here, two rivers flowed into the Aral Sea, but now, only the Syr Darya flows into it. The Amu Darya has not reached it for a long time. … As a result of the disappearance of the Aral Sea, dozens of species of animals and plants also disappeared.
In the lower reaches of the Amu Darya, one of the largest empty places in the world, hundreds of lakes have disappeared.
90% of tugai forests disappeared along with their inhabitants. They can no longer be restored. All these processes are happening at an increasing pace,” Sanginov said.
He noted that Central Asia is home to such colossal mountain ecosystems as the Tien Shan, Pamir, Altai, Karakorum, and others. The largest in the area – two and a half thousand kilometres – is the Tien Shan Mountain system. Mountain systems are naturally affected by climate change. One of the most global and dangerous consequences of such processes is the intensive melting of glaciers.
“Over the last 40 years, 30% of glacial mass has been lost.
In the next 10 years, this will lead to a reduction in the water availability of the main watercourses of Central Asia. I am not even mentioning the mountain sai [rivers], which dried up and ceased to exist. We are talking about the Amu Darya. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya are full-flowing and powerful, but their water content will be reduced by 10 to 15%,” says Sanginov.
In addition, soil degradation occurs in mountainous and foothill areas.
The main factor is the overgrazing of livestock, says an expert from Uzbekistan.
“… We no longer have even the grass there. In the place where there was grass just 5 years ago, there is now a 10-centimetre layer of dust. It comes from overgrazing of livestock, primarily goats and sheep,” he said.
“The future state of mountain ecosystems directly depends on human activities. The climate change is a natural factor. Nature somehow copes with this. However, it is no longer able to cope with human interference,” Sanginov said.
What Can Be Done?
The experts believe that urgent targeted measures are needed to stop the destruction of the region’s natural ecosystems.
To substantively and systematically work in the conservation and restoration of mountain ecosystems, investments in science are required, says Saidrasul Sanginov.
“We need proper scientific analysis and scientific forecasts to assess the possibilities for using natural resources and mountain areas in the short and medium term. Considering the assessment of the impact of climate change on their condition, this is still a task,” he noted.
Another big challenge is the creation of transboundary protected areas.
“It was already mentioned here that the boundaries were drawn not by river basins or ecosystems. They are political. The ecosystems are divided between two or more countries. Therefore, creation of the transboundary protected areas could be one of the measures for preserving biodiversity in the mountains. Of course, what is needed here is not only our expert assessment and proposals but also political will,” Sanginov concluded.
Bulat Yessekin believes that all those declarative measures taken earlier and are being taken now do not work. Therefore, today, governments, environmental scientists, and civil and international institutions need more precise goals and actions, including indicators and projects for the restoration of nature.
“Preserving environmental sustainability, that is, preserving what is still possible to preserve, what supports life in new conditions, is the main task of all humanity, regardless of whether the country is prosperous or poor, whether it is in conflict or lives in harmony, whether its residents are poor or rich,” he said.
Alikhon Latifi also stressed the importance of focused and joint work.
“This is what I said in the first part of the discussion, that I cannot be strong in every area at the same time. Thus, I have to be strong in one area. Then such organisations, such people who are strong in one area will be distributed across the region. Only then we will probably see some real changes. If everyone just takes a broom and sweeps the road in front of the house and does not throw an empty plastic bottle out of the car window onto the side of the road, which I see every single day when driving along our roads, then, probably, life will become better, life will become more fun,” said Latifi.
Anna Kirilenko said that “sometimes it is necessary to do nothing”.
“It may sound controversial. If the ecosystem exists, sometimes, you just need to leave it alone. I understand that for politicians and many others, this is impossible. We need to plant something, run somewhere. However, sometimes we need this principle, some kind of principle of doing nothing and allowing the ecosystem to regenerate itself, this is also necessary,” she said.
In addition, an expert from Kyrgyzstan suggests not violating the principle of adapted restoration, for example, planting local tree species.
“Only local tree species should be planted, local plant species that are adapted to grow in this territory. … Then there is a question of where to plant. Of course, you can plant it wherever you want, but that is not the case. This is also not entirely true. We need to choose the locations very precisely,” she said.
Kirilenko believes that it is necessary to develop science and engage it in targeted solutions to problems.
“It seems to me that this is a very important moment when we need to get involved, including public organisations and science. I fully support that we need to develop science, we desperately need science in this context. We need to develop these priorities so that they meet the needs and requirements,” she said.
Arman Utepov spoke about the importance of developing cultural behaviour and educating the population in this regard.
“Therefore, the population should be educated, kids should be taught from childhood a sense of belonging to nature. … We probably need to promote these sustainable practices and share information to make appropriate changes in our national policies,” he said.
The experts made many more recommendations, read more on the topic here: