«Taking into consideration how each of these “black swan” events could further affect the region, would allow frontline organisations combating TIP in Central Asia to identify and develop resilience strategies to counter new socio-economic and political vulnerabilities», – writes research analyst Maya Ivanova (Bulgaria), exclusively for CABAR.asia.
Examining available statistics on trafficking in persons (TIP) cases in CA – we can clearly deduct that TIP is still a relevant issue to be tackled. Reports show that Uzbekistan has increased its protection efforts[1]. Authorities formally identified 150 victims of trafficking in 2020, compared with 95 in 2019, which marked the first increase in annual victim identification figures since 2012[2]. However, it should be noted that the government does not report on victims of foreign origin, which makes it more difficult to determine the extent to which Uzbekistan is a transit/destination country.
Unlike Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan does report on trafficking of foreign nationals- the government referred at least six forced labor victims, all Uzbekistani nationals, to NGO shelter services (compared with only two forced labor victims identified and referred in 2019 and none in 2018). Overall, the Kyrgyz authorities have modestly increased efforts to protect victims and have identified 111 victims in 2020, compared with 2 forced labor victims reportedly identified by the government in 2019. NGOs reported identifying and providing services to an additional 82 victims[3]. Kazakhstani officials reportedly began consulting with international organizations and foreign governments on the creation of standalone trafficking legislation and Kazakhstan is the only CA country where the reported numbers have decreased- from 67 cases in 2019 to 45 cases in 2020[4].
In Tajikistan, in the absence of standardized and promulgated victim identification procedures, roles and responsibilities among key stakeholder ministries still remain unclear. Authorities identified 24 trafficking victims, compared with 53 in 2019. However, the government does not provide any additional information on the victims like nationality[5]. In Turkmenistan, the government maintained negligible protection efforts and failed to adopt or implement standard operating procedures for victim identification and for the second consecutive year, authorities did not identify any trafficking victims.[6] The absence of any reported cases or the absence of desegregated data, which also includes foreign nationals further highlight the severity of the problem as proper reporting is at the core of combating TIP.
How is TIP affected by “black swans”?
For the purpose of examining how recent events have impacted and could potentially continue to impact TIP, this analysis will focus on three major events- the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the rise to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan. All three events share two major aspects- they all had a devastating, far- reaching impact and were all impossible to predict with certainty or were rather considered as low probability and therefore fit the definition of a black swan[1]. Defining the events as black swans adds precision and the connotation of “unpredictability” which lies at the core of the argument of this analysis- the importance of frontline organisations’ capacity-building in terms of addressing TIP. Black swans are also major push factors that perpetuate migration and therefore directly contribute to TIP in CA.
More concretely, in relation to TIP, these black swans are cross- cutting and cover the social, economic and security spheres. The pandemic is an important factor, because it has had an impact on the awareness-raising and preventive aspects of countering human trafficking. The war in Ukraine, despite being ongoing, has had indirect economic repercussions on the region that are bound to drive economic migrants towards seeking alternative means of income despite the inherent risks associated with that. Finally, the rise to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan could pose further security challenges to the region and affect its neighbours by making them a transit country for migration which in turn facilitates TIP as an option for a lucrative fast- cash business.
“Black Swan” 1: COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic which affected everyone’s lives globally had and still has lingering unprecedented repercussions on TIP. Studies on the impact of COVID-19 on combatting TIP efforts globally show that the pandemic not only increased the number of people who experienced vulnerabilities to human trafficking, but also interrupted existing and planned anti-trafficking interventions[7]. Governments have had to divert resources toward the pandemic, often at the expense of anti-trafficking efforts, resulting in “decreased protection measures and service provision for victims, reduction of preventative efforts, and hindrances to investigations and prosecutions of traffickers”[8]. Redirection of funds proved to be positive in some cases like Uzbekistan where the state created a fund to support the most vulnerable- the “iron notebook” («темир дафтар»), which was dedicated to helping the most vulnerable groups affected by the pandemic, including victims of TIP and vulnerable groups of migrants[9]. However, in countries like Kyrgyzstan, where the state budget does not have any funds designated for combating TIP, the NGOs had to adapt and redirect funds from their projects to tackling the pandemic[10].
Many Central Asian labour migrants who had a job and housing abroad were left in an even more precarious position- without a salary and facing the risk of deportation, because of all the COVID-19 restrictions and enforced quarantine measures[11]. The Uzbekistani NGO Istiqbolli Avlod reports that not all labour migrants could return to Uzbekistan from abroad and some of them are still missing to this day and the suspicion is that they fell victim to TIP[12]. Moreover, another consequence of the pandemic is that traffickers started to recruit victims heavily online and exploit them in new locations, for example, in private apartments[13]. In Uzbekistan, there has been a wide-scale digitalization of TIP, which continues to make it harder to counter the recruitment and exploitation of victims- especially women and children[14]. Consequently, one of the main challenges in this area remains the limited and fragmented statistical data on all categories of migrants, including data on the registration of labor migrants used for labor exploitation as well as on victims of TIP[15].
Due to the pandemic, TIP awareness-campaigns were suspended or were less effective because they took place at airports, border crossings, train/ bus stations or because the issue was raised during community gatherings[16]. In Kyrgyzstan, the pandemic resulted in an increase of the economic and social inequality, which in turn, resulted in a drive among the vulnerable population to emigrate and take any job in illegal, informal or unregulated sectors[17]. Many Uzbek migrants also agreed to any work they were offered abroad in order to meet their basic needs, and often fell victim to criminal groups or ended up in domestic servitude with a low salary and unregulated working hours[18].
Overall, following the COVID-19 pandemic, TIP has adapted and grown in severity, which leaves many new challenges to frontline organisations and states. These challenges will require active collaboration among governments, civil society organisations, private sector leaders, survivor leaders, and other anti-trafficking actors to become more resilient when faced with a challenge of such a scale in the future.
“Black Swan” 2: Afghanistan
According to the U.S. Department of State’s annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report, in 2021 Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan joined Tajikistan as Tier 2 countries- countries whose governments do not fully meet the minimum standards, but are making significant efforts to bring themselves into compliance with those standards. Afghanistan however remains a Tier 3 country as the government “does not fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making significant efforts to do so, even considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its anti-trafficking capacity”[19].
The sudden rise to power of the Taliban in 2021 is not only a black swan, it also poses a threat to affecting Central Asian countries by making them origin/transit/recipient countries of TIP. According to studies, Afghan men, women, and children pay intermediaries to assist them in finding employment abroad, primarily in Iran, Pakistan, and Europe, which clearly pass through Central Asia[20]. Moreover, there are reports from 2021 of traffickers having subjected women and girls from Tajikistan to sex trafficking in Afghanistan and of some labor-recruiting agencies luring foreign workers to Afghanistan from Central Asia with promises of high-paying employment opportunities and subjecting them to forced labor after arrival[21].
Using a theoretical lens in order to substantiate any hypothesis on the worsened track record of TIP of Afghanistan affecting CA points to possible trickle down effects since security concerns tend to cluster and remain within the same geographical region[22], which means that the exacerbation of the situation within Afghanistan would serve as a push factor, which in turn opens new vulnerabilities for traffickers to exploit. Due to linguistic links and the fact that they share an extensive (1, 357km), mainly mountainous land border, Tajikistan is the most likely to become the primary transit country option for TIP. In contrast, Uzbekistan has a much shorter land border (144 km), making the surveillance of border crossings more easy to monitor. However, the change of power in neighbouring Afghanistan could have an impact on separatist and radical movements in the border regions of Uzbekistan and there is a need for an increase in governmental programmes on combating radicalization and forced extremism and attracting more financing from foreign funds[23].
More data collection, monitoring and analysis, as well as exchange of information among Central Asian states is needed in order to understand the scale of TIP (both on a domestic and cross-border level) as well as the possible increased vulnerabilities of certain groups to trafficking. Without questioning the importance of maintaining good neighbourly relations with other countries in the region, it is worth highlighting the importance of maintaining the progress already made and to avoid backsliding on progress made in the anti-trafficking field or contributing to challenges in combating the crime.
“Black Swan” 3: The War in Ukraine
Despite the recent Russian aggression in Ukraine, the monocenters where vocational, language and basic legal training are provided with the aim of seeking employment in Russia are still operational and free, so they still attract prospective labour migrants across CA[24]. However, considering the sanctions towards Russia as a result of the war in Ukraine, and in particular the numerous foreign businesses who exited the Russian market and left local staff unemployed, it is to be expected that it would be more difficult for migrant workers from CA to seek employment even if the Kremlin does not impose further administrative or legal restrictions on them. In addition, using re-entry bans as a measure of reducing irregular migration were noted in Russian legislation for a long time, with the majority of persons affected being Uzbek citizens, followed by Kyrgyz, Tajik and Moldova nationals[25].
In practical terms, we should also take into account that due to the sanctions Russia is facing, it is harder to transfer money from Russia to CA countries and that the ruble is fluctuating and consequently the earnings of migrants, who in many cases are the sole source of income for multiple family members[26]. Many Russian and Kazakh employers also declared bankruptcy and as a result there are groups of Central Asians that have become a risk group for TIP, searching for any option for employment[27]. In Tajikistan, civil society observers noted that Tajikistan’s diplomatic presence in Russia was poorly equipped to identify and assist Tajikistani trafficking victims, thereby leaving them even more vulnerable in the present circumstances[28]. Migrants from Uzbekistan are already exploring alternative options in Belarus, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Turkey, the UK,[29] and labour migrants from Kyrgyzstan are looking into options mainly in Europe- Bulgaria, Germany, the UK, etc[30].
Recommendations
Having examined the challenges that the black swans pose to TIP separately does not mean that the response on a national and international level should be separate. Quite the contrary- mitigation measures should be comprehensive and holistic which is clearly visible if we examine the recommendations by the main international actors regarding TIP- the UN and its associated bodies and agencies, the OSCE and USAID. A review of key recommendations and reports clearly shows the relevance of “black swans” for TIP. Among the key recommendations the ones relevant to all three black swans are the establishment of a cooperative framework of Central Asian countries between national CTIP Commissions on data management, prevention, National Referral Mechanism (NRM); the facilitation of regional referral mechanisms; the improvement of data collection; the establishment or strengthening of partnerships with tech companies to invest in research and development; Central Asian states taking the legal obligation to ensure that they have anti-trafficking legislation to address TIP in cyberspace; the development of necessary training for involved stakeholders and the development on a national level of standard operating procedures (SoPs) on victim identification and support for civil society organizations[31][32][33].
More concretely, specific recommendations pertinent to the first “black swan” are continuing the awareness-raising campaigns for migrants and members of their families that focus on online platforms and tools as well as the use youth-friendly communication forms and channels (including using bloggers, QR-codes, etc.) that would lead to online resources. Studies following the outbreak of the pandemic specifically point to the weak state and non-state collaboration with migrant networks and diaspora groups which, if strengthened, could improve support for their members, facilitate access to better jobs, provide emotional and peer support, and strengthen migrants’ resilience to extremist messaging[34].
Regarding the second “black swan”, the recommendations that are relevant to the main risk it poses to the region- namely radicalization- is to enhance capacities of NGOs in proactive activities and advocacy work to counter radicalization, especially online. Also, in light of the renewed commercial activities between Uzbekistan and Pakistan with Afghanistan as a transit country[35]– particularly relevant to the second black swan is the strengthening of cooperation with transportation companies, train transportation and tourist companies to prevent TIP.
Finally, in relation to the third “black swan”, studies conclude that the development of online platforms for pre-departure orientation of migrants with country-specific, practical information for labor migrants, especially on newly-emerging destination countries could contribute to offsetting the vulnerable state that labor migrant returnees have found themselves into. Studies on the repercussions of the war in Ukraine on TIP are yet to be further developed, but experts from various organizations and NGOs point that vulnerabilities are likely to increase as the war in Ukraine continues, hence coordinated action and rapid exchange of information at national and international level are crucial to prevent trafficking and detect potential victims.[36]
Taking into consideration how each of these black swan events would unfold and how the various possible scenarios could further affect the region would allow frontline organisations combating TIP in Central Asia to identify and develop resilience strategies to counter new socio-economic and political vulnerabilities that could arise and that traffickers could prey on. From the reporting and analysis done both on a national level by Central Asian states and by international organizations, it is clear that efforts are directed towards tackling the three black swans. However, the recommendations identified by international organizations clearly point out that these challenges will require governments, international organisations and NGOs to become more resilient in the face of unforeseen challenges of great magnitude and improve their collaborative efforts to comprehensively address TIP.
[1] The theory of black swan events is a metaphor which describes events that are highly unlikely, hard to predict, go beyond the realm of predictability based on quantitative data and simple analysis, but have a high impact, which could prove catastrophic and is easily reaffirmed in hindsight by a confirmation bias, where particular elements of a series of events become more salient as they contribute to a model, while those that contradict it fade into obscurity. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb starting in 2001.
[1] 2021 Uzbekistan Trafficking in Persons Report by the US Department of State, Available at: https://uz.usembassy.gov/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report-uzbekistan/#:~:text=Authorities%20formally%20identified%20150%20victims,victim%20identification%20figures%20since%202012.
[2] 2021 Uzbekistan Trafficking in Persons Report by the US Department of State, Available at: https://uz.usembassy.gov/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report-uzbekistan/#:~:text=Authorities%20formally%20identified%20150%20victims,victim%20identification%20figures%20since%202012.
[3] 2021 Kyrgyzstan Trafficking in Persons Report by the US Department of State, Available at: https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report/kyrgyz-republic/
[4] 2021 Kazakhstan Trafficking in Persons Report by the US Department of State, Available at: https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report/kazakhstan/
[5] 2021 Tajikistan Trafficking in Persons Report by the US Department of State, Available at: https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report/tajikistan/
[6] 2021 Turkmenistan Trafficking in Persons Report by the US Department of State, Available at:
https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report/turkmenistan/
[7] Uzbekistan’s efforts to combat human trafficking, EU Reporter, published on 08 August 2021, Available at: https://www.eureporter.co/world/uzbekistan/2021/08/08/uzbekistans-efforts-to-combat-human-trafficking/
[8] Ibid.
[9] Interview with Ms. Nazifa Kamalova- Regional Director of the Center for socio-economic and legal support “Istiqbolli Avlod”, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan
[10] Interview with Ms. Nurjan Tulegabilova, Director of the Public Fund “El Agartuu”, Kyrgyzstan
[11] Interview with Ms. Nazifa Kamalova- Regional Director of the Center for socio-economic and legal support “Istiqbolli Avlod”, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan
[12] Interview with Ms. Nazifa Kamalova- Regional Director of the Center for socio-economic and legal support “Istiqbolli Avlod”, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan
[13] The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trafficking in persons- A global study of emerging evidence- 2021 report by UNODC, Available at: https://www.unodc.org/documents/human-trafficking/2021/The_effects_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_trafficking_in_persons.pdf
[14] Interview with Ms. Nazifa Kamalova- Regional Director of the Center for socio-economic and legal support “Istiqbolli Avlod”, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan
[15] USAID Uzbekistan Situational Analysis
[16] 2021 Trafficking in Persons Report by the US Department of State, Available at: https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report/
[17] Interview with Ms. Nurjan Tulegabilova, Director of the Public Fund “El Agartuu”, Kyrgyzstan
[18] Interview with Ms. Nazifa Kamalova- Regional Director of the Center for socio-economic and legal support “Istiqbolli Avlod”, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan
[19] 2021 Trafficking in Persons Report: Afghanistan by US Department of State, Available at: https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report/afghanistan/
[20] Ibid.
[21] 2021 Trafficking in Persons Report: Afghanistan by US Department of State, Available at: https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report/afghanistan/
[22] Regional Security Complex Theory developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver, Source: Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security, (2003), Cambridge, United Kingdom.
[23] Interview with Ms. Nazifa Kamalova- Regional Director of the Center for socio-economic and legal support “Istiqbolli Avlod”, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan
[24] Ibid.
[25] Migrants’ Re-Entry Bans to The Russian Federation: The Tajik Story, Policy Brief by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, GCSP, the OSCE Academy, Available at:
https://osce-academy.net/upload/file/Policy_Brief_16.pdf
[26] Interview with Ms. Nazifa Kamalova- Regional Director of the Center for socio-economic and legal support “Istiqbolli Avlod”, Jizzakh, Uzbekistan
[27] Ibid.
[28] 2021 Tadjikistan Trafficking in Persons Report by the US Department of State, Available at: https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-trafficking-in-persons-report/tajikistan/
[29] Ibid.
[30] Ibid. and Ms. Nurjan Tulegabilova, Director of the Public Fund “El Agartuu”, Kyrgyzstan
[31] The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on to trafficking in persons and responses to the challenges- A global study of emerging evidence, 2021, UNODC publications;
[32] Leveraging innovation to fight trafficking in human beings: A comprehensive analysis of technology tools, 2020, OSCE publications;
[33] USAID/Central Asia Covid-Specific Gender Analysis- 2020 report;
USAID Countering Trafficking in Persons- Central Asia country profile analysis 2021;
USAID Safe Migration in Central Asia Activity- 2020 Report;
[34] USAID Uzbekistan Situational Analysis;
[35] Узбекистанские водители начали возить грузы транзитом через Афганистан, 17 июня 2022, Available at: https://www.spot.uz/ru/2022/06/17/tashkent-karachi/?fbclid=IwAR0y3fKLBtEbO4OUyPu3PVSfvm2gLZw8fkkazZgh31nRXe4ddEXfWxUfCQU
[36] The global fight against trafficking is at a turning point, warn anti-trafficking executives at joint OSCE and Council of Europe meeting, OSCE Press Release from15 June 2022, Available at: https://www.osce.org/secretariat/520172?fbclid=IwAR0TbI8R4T60WBQrxZRA3AITPtH4g5UiAUiiFEc0DHYKNSic52OL-XsSh70