“The tandem of Uzbekistan with Kazakhstan can stimulate the strengthening of regional cooperation,” – writes Umarbek Nuriddinov (Uzbekistan), student of the Faculty of International Relations at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy, participant of the CABAR.asia School of Analytics 2021.
Currently, the Central Asian region is undergoing major changes. On the one hand, in 2021, the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the transfer of power into the hands of the Taliban (a banned terrorist organization in Central Asia – ed note.) took place, on the other hand, the recent internal tensions in Kazakhstan. There is geopolitical tension in the world, the struggle for the possession of resources is intensifying – and all this has no choice but affect the Central Asian region.
The issue of ensuring the security of the Central Asian region is again actualizing, and only a united developed region can reflect threats of a traditional and non-traditional nature that arise from the outside. One of the factors that serve to unify the region are elements of modernity, which include the secular system of government.
The most important are relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – the largest states of Central Asia, which are of colossal importance for maintaining sustainable development of the region and strengthening regional cooperation. The geographical proximity between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan allows for close interaction. However, until 2016, there were difficulties in developing a unified approach to solving the assigned tasks, as well as latent leadership between the first presidents of states hindered the cooperation of the two countries.
The change of leadership in Uzbekistan in 2016 had a positive impact on the processes taking place in the Central Asian region. First of all, the arrival of Shavkat Mirziyoyev changed relations with neighbors in the region for the better. A course was taken for close cooperation in the region and the creation of a security belt around the Central Asian region. “Central Asia is a single organism,” – this is how the President of Uzbekistan defined our region in an interview with the Kazinform agency shortly before his state visit to Nur-Sultan in 2017. As noted in the Strategy actions in five priority areas of development of Uzbekistan in 2017-2021, the main direction of the foreign policy of Shavkat Mirziyoyev became the region of Central Asia. The new realities of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy were due to the fact that the country’s development depends on the development of the region. Of course, therefore, a course was taken to solve key problems of regional security, including assistance in resolving the situation in Afghanistan.
Along with the solution of security issues, Uzbekistan promotes various projects, ranging from the economic to the cultural sphere. The tandem of Uzbekistan with Kazakhstan can stimulate the strengthening of regional cooperation.
Europe is a prime example of regional integration. After the end of World War II in Europe, the combined forces of Germany and France put an end to the centuries-old strife between the two countries. France and Germany played an important role in creating a united Europe and uniting it into a single force – a common home. European integration, as a rule, can serve as an example for other regions of the world. Also, under the current conditions, the importance of the integration of Central Asia is growing, which can be achieved through the convergence of ties between countries in the region. To do this, it is necessary to use the potential of the two countries, since Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are states with geostrategic, economic, transport, and innovative capabilities.
Features of political dialogue between countries
Over the past period of independence, regulatory and legal documents were signed, the task of which is to regulate bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Among them are the Treaty of Eternal Friendship (1998) and the Treaty on Strategic Partnership (2013).
With the coming to power of Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Tashkent, the number of visits and meetings between the leaders has sharply increased. The growth of ties between countries gives new contours to interstate cooperation. An example of positive developments is the visit of Shavkat Mirziyoyev on December 6, 2021, to the capital of Kazakhstan – Nur-Sultan. This was the first state visit after the inauguration of Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during which meetings were held and issues of ensuring regional security were raised, which indicates that relations with Kazakhstan remain a priority in the republic’s foreign policy.
In addition, the main emphasis was placed on bringing relations between the two neighboring countries to a new qualitative level. The visit resulted in the signing of a declaration on allied relations. This has become a historic event that can give strength to the two countries in building a qualitatively new type of relationship.
The main provisions of the signed declaration are – the establishment of the Supreme Interstate Council, the Council of Interparliamentary Cooperation and the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Kazakhstan. In addition to the institutional norm, it was decided to focus on deepening trade and economic relations, which form the basis of relations between the two countries. The heads of state instructed the governments to take measures to increase the volume of mutual trade up to 5 billion USD in the coming years and up to 10 billion USD in the medium term.
Among other things, this document is of colossal importance for the entire region. The rapprochement of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the creation of a legal and institutional framework for strengthening bilateral relations will have a positive effect on multilateral cooperation, in general, on the emerging regional security of Central Asia.
The positive shift in relations was also due to the fact that the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan seek to complement and interact together, pushing aside the struggle for leadership. Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia (GDP per capita in 2020 was over 9.1 thousand USD at current prices), and Uzbekistan, located in a strategically important place – the heart of Central Asia, has both geopolitical and demographic potential. It can be noted that the visits of the heads of state show the importance of neighbors in strengthening integration ties in the region and ensuring its security.
Trade, economic and investment cooperation
Trade and economic relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan lie at the heart of bilateral cooperation between the countries. Over the past five years, the development of economic cooperation has acquired new contours. Kazakhstan is Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner in Central Asia. In 2017, the two countries signed the Strategy for Economic Cooperation for 2017-2019, which became the impetus for the growth of the economy and trade.
At the end of 2017, the trade turnover reached 2 billion USD, thereby showing an increase of 31% compared to 2016. In 2020, Kazakhstan became the third largest trading partner of Uzbekistan with a share of 9.3% in foreign trade, behind China (17.7%) and Russia (17.4%). Kazakhstan ranked first among trading partners in Central Asia, which confirms the importance and interconnectedness of the two economies.
It should be recalled that the heads of the two states set the task for the governments to bring the mutual trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 2022 up to 5 billion USD, and within five years to reach the indicator of the volume of mutual trade up to 10 billion USD.
In trade and economic relations, the following trends have been observed over the past 5 years:
- Conducting regular meetings and sessions between the governments, departments of the two countries, aimed at discussing issues of improving the economic and business environment.
- Increasing the attention of the institutions of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to the development of relations between trading houses.
- Establishing connections between areas of two neighbors. For example, connections were established between khokimiyats and akimats (administrative bodies of cities and districts) of the Syrdarya region, Tashkent region, Navoi region and Turkestan region, Kyzylorda region.
- Conducting forums of interregional cooperation.
In particular, in 2018, a forum was held in the city of Shymkent, as a result of which 16 memorandums of direct interregional cooperation were concluded, and economic entities of the regions concluded agreements on the implementation of 26 investment projects worth 110.5 million USD and 69 trade contracts worth 209,3 million USD. Recently, in November 2021, shortly before the state visit of Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Nur-Sultan, the third Interregional Forum on the topic “Cross-border cooperation as new growth points” was held in Turkestan.
The forum was attended not only by the heads of state and ministries, but large businessmen of the two countries. The result was the signing of 54 investment and commercial contracts in the fields of mechanical engineering, agro-industrial complex, production of building materials, electrical products, medical products, infrastructure development and other industries for a total of 611.3 million USD.
Investment cooperation is also becoming an integral part of relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In the period from the beginning of 2019 to the present, there has been an increase in the number of enterprises with the participation of the capital of Kazakhstan by 2.1 times – from 510 to 1,056 enterprises, in particular, since the beginning of this year, 166 enterprises with Kazakhstani capital have been created. A subsidiary company of Halyk Bank (People’s Bank), Tenge Bank, has been operating in Tashkent since 2019.
Also, the practical embodiment of the meeting of the two presidents became the initiatives of enterprises for the construction of subsidiaries or branches in neighboring countries. The Astana-Motors company has shown interest in the construction of a plant for the production of Hyundai cars in the city of Jizzak.
In addition, the Uzbek company for the production of household appliances Artel Electronics launches contacts with the Kazakhstani Orbis Kazakhstan. The basis of cooperation between the two companies is the issue of cookers and electric water heaters at a cost of 85 million USD investment, where the plant capacity will reach 500 thousand per year for each product.
According to the statistics agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan, at the moment 2,144 enterprises with Uzbek capital (5.8% of the total) have been registered and are successfully operating.
It should be noted that the existing potential opportunities imply the implementation of new joint projects in the field of mechanical engineering, the construction industry, and the pharmaceutical industry.
Prospects for the implementation of projects in the transport and logistics sector
A developed transport infrastructure allows an entrepreneur to develop trade and economic relations, in other words, transport performs the function of ensuring the effective functioning of the economy. For the development of regional relations, there is a need to improve transport and logistics relations between the neighbors of Central Asia.
With the recession of the pandemic, air traffic between the countries was restored, facilitating contacts between the two neighboring countries of the region. Currently, there are 20 flights per week.
Along with this, the volume of traffic between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan increased in 2020, which amounted to 21 million tons, showing an increase of 19% compared to 2019. In order to increase the automobile cargo flow, full-scale work is underway to reconstruct the Beineu-Akzhigit highway.
The head of Uzbekistan stressed the importance of interaction between the two countries in order to improve the transport and logistics sector. Particularly important projects were the construction of roads and railways “Uchkuduk – Kyzylorda”, as well as the launch of a high-speed rail link along the route “Turkestan – Shymkent – Tashkent”.
During the last visit of Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Nur-Sultan, the Joint Action Plan for the implementation of the Kyzylorda-Uchkuduk road and railway construction project for 2021-2025 was concluded, which has positive aspects:
- The lack of roads and rail links between the regions of the two countries impedes the development of trade and economic relations. The Navoi region has industrial potential, and a direct connection with the Kyzylorda region will reduce the time for the transportation of goods and cargo. The developed road infrastructure will be the impetus for the acceleration of connections between the regions.
- The emergence of direct communication between regions is a unique opportunity for the development of the business environment and entrepreneurial relations. For example, in Karakalpakstan, the Ustyurt gas chemical complex operates, which produces polyethylene and propylene, while entrepreneurs of the Kyzylorda region buy these products from Tatarstan, which is logistically closer to them today.
- The expanded infrastructure will lead to the development of relations with the center of Kazakhstan, then with the Urals and Siberia.
- The implementation of the project promises economic opportunities for Kazakhstan for the development of the southern regions.
The next project for the construction of a high-speed highway “Turkestan – Shymkent – Tashkent” also has the prospect of increasing passenger traffic. According to forecasts of the Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the passenger turnover may reach 1.9 million passengers per year.
Obviously, the implementation of the two projects will have a very positive impact on the development of tourism and the formation of the image between the countries. In addition to the capitals, business circles of the regions interested in expanding ties with neighboring countries will also come into contact.
In the current conditions, it is necessary to focus on the creation of a single and united system in Central Asia, which cannot be done without the signing of an appropriate agreement. Thus, the foundation was laid for improving the transport and logistics system of the two countries, which will have a positive impact on the development of Central Asia.
Cultural and humanitarian cooperation
In the context of globalization, the importance of preserving historical and cultural ties between neighboring countries is growing, which contributes to the expansion of information about countries among citizens. 2018 in Kazakhstan was proclaimed the Year of Uzbekistan, and 2019 – the Year of Kazakhstan in Uzbekistan. These historical events serve to build mutual respect between the two ethnic groups.
According to statistics from the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan, there are currently 821.2 thousand Kazakhs in the country, who make up the third largest ethnic group. The Republican Kazakh Cultural Center operates in Uzbekistan, numbering 30 regional and district branches. This, in turn, contributes to the preservation of Kazakh culture. And in Kazakhstan, according to the annual bulletin of the National Bureau of Statistics, 620 thousand Uzbeks live, who are mainly concentrated in the Turkestan and Zhambyl regions, and are the third largest ethnic group after the Kazakhs and Russians.
In the context of promoting cultural achievements and assets, a special role is assigned to the embassies of countries, which hold various kinds of events aimed at strengthening cultural and historical ties. In particular, in 2019, in connection with the announcement of the Year of Kazakhstan, concerts, exhibitions, festivals were held in Uzbekistan. Among them, one can especially highlight the tours that were organized by the “Astana Opera” and “Astana Ballet”.
One of such major events was the international Grand Prix of Bakhshilar (Zhyrau), which was held on April 6, 2019, in the city of Termez, Sukhandarya region, and was attended by the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev. This once again confirms the importance of continuing cultural ties between fraternal nations.
Cooperation was also carried out through scientific think tanks. In particular, in 2017 and 2018 joint conferences were held with the participation of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies and the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies. A significant result of the interaction of the two “think tanks” was the development of two analytical materials entitled “Uzbekistan – Kazakhstan: 25 years of establishing diplomatic relations” and “Prospects for partnership between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in new geopolitical and geo-economic conditions.”
The International Institute of Central Asia was opened in Uzbekistan in 2021. Shortly before Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s state visit to Nur-Sultan, a round table was held between International Institute of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies on the topic: “On the state and prospects of the Kazakh-Uzbek strategic partnership.” Thus, over the past five years, a solid and stable environment has been created for interaction and cooperation of think tanks engaged in the analysis and study of the main processes in Central Asia.
Cooperation on global and regional development
The support provided by the two countries in addressing global and regional issues is aimed at sustainable development of the Central Asian region. There is an opinion that without Uzbekistan, as a large state in Central Asia, it is impossible to resolve regional issues. Kazakhstan’s initiatives at the international level find their support in Uzbekistan. Tashkent supported Kazakhstan to be elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2017-2018. In addition, the resolution ” Universal Declaration on the Achievement of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World ” put forward at the initiative of Kazakhstan during the 70th anniversary of the UN General Assembly was adopted due to the support of official Tashkent.
It should be especially emphasized the consolidating role that the two countries are making to ensure sustainable development of the region and address pressing issues in the field of security. It is very positive that there is a mechanism of consultations and interaction between Nur-Sultan and Tashkent under the auspices of the UN Security Council. The efforts of the two fraternal republics were united to combat terrorism, religious extremism and suppression of illegal drug and psychotropic substances trafficking. The involvement of the UN promises great opportunities for the implementation of the outlined projects in the field of ensuring regional security and maintaining stability.
The Afghan direction has become an important area of bilateral cooperation. Both Central Asian countries are interested in a peaceful settlement of the conflict and are trying to involve the country in economic relations with the region, which will have a positive impact on the social life of the Afghan people.
Uzbekistan supported the holding of the international exhibition EXPO-2017 in Astana, which was attended by over 4 million people from all over the world. Along with support in the field of security, politics, economics, support in the field of environmental protection can be noted. It seems that the Aral Sea ecological crisis has become a headache for all countries in the region. Kazakhstan voted for the adoption in May 2021 of a special resolution of the UN General Assembly on declaring the Aral Sea region a zone of environmental innovations and technologies, which was put forward at the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
Conclusion
Thus, over the past period, there has been a convergence of positions of the two neighboring countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on particularly important issues affecting the life of the entire region. In conclusion, it can be noted that over the past five-year period, the foundation has been laid for the development of trade, economic, investment, transport, cultural and humanitarian cooperation. Both countries have great potential and opportunities for the implementation of the projects set – both geography and cultural and humanitarian ties between the two countries necessitate cooperation.
The two countries maintain a high level of cooperation in all areas, from trade and economic to cultural and humanitarian ties, and regular political ones emphasize the importance of bilateral relations.
In connection with the latest events in Kazakhstan related to internal unrest, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan made an official statement, according to which Kazakhstanis have the necessary determination and willpower to maintain unity, restore peace and tranquility in the country and overcome the problems that have arisen. It is hoped that after the settlement of the situation in Kazakhstan, the projects between the two countries will not be slowed down and will continue their dynamic cooperation.